Overview:According to feedback from relevant clients, the freight for bulk carriers from Guinea to China has been continuously raised, with current quotations at $35 or higher, and ore prices continue to rise. Ocean freight rate increases, coupled with higher mine costs driven by oil prices and the traditional rainy season in Guinea, have led to a decline in shipments of bauxite from Guinea to China, while bauxite quotations continue to rise. China’s alumina refineries still hold high inventories, and intended transaction prices are low. Overall, the divergence between offer and bid prices in the bauxite upstream and downstream sectors has widened, and in August, both the Guinea-China long-term contract and bulk markets have been in continuous negotiation. Other non-mainstream ores have also seen their quotation ranges consolidate at highs amid rising ocean freight rates and oil price-driven cost increases, with market transactions remaining sluggish. Based on rising bauxite costs and the progress of long-term contract price negotiations for August as benchmarks: Today, the CIF quotation for Guinea bauxite was $70-74/mt, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; the FOB quotation for Guinea bauxite was $38-42/mt, with the average price unchanged; and the imported bauxite CIF index stood at $71.57/mt, up $0.7/mt from the previous trading day.
Trader: Currently, ocean freight rates are quoted at $35 or higher, driving up mine shipping costs and mining costs. Overall, there is still considerable upside room for ore prices.
Upstream: Northern ports quote $72, but overall market acceptance is limited. Going forward, fluctuations in ocean freight rates and shipments need to be monitored.
Trader: The 45/3-grade ore currently appears to remain relatively stable at around $71-72, and the overall market will mainly continue to consolidate at highs.
Upstream: Ocean freight rates pulled back overall, with July shipments expected to decline. The overall market remains relatively optimistic, anticipating supply-demand shifts. Quotations were at $72-73.
Downstream: The ocean freight rate market has experienced a drop, and currently, market divergences remain relatively large. Downstream acceptance of high ore prices is limited, and with ocean freight rates pulling back, overall market trading is cautious.
Trader: Currently, market quotations show significant divergence, and actual communication with factories remains poor. Transaction prices are expected to decline. Shipments have been weak due to the rainy season, resulting in high overall market uncertainty.
Upstream: The ocean freight rate has seen an overall decline, while long-term contract prices overall remained unchanged. The market has already shown a downward trend, with expectations around $70.
Upstream: Currently, downstream factories have limited purchase willingness, and overall it is felt that the upstream and downstream quotation ranges are continuously widening, while the long-term contract situation is also relatively loose.
Trader: Ocean freight rates have been raised, and trader quotations have now reached $73 or higher, but the transaction situation is poor, and the market has returned to a state of gaming