As of July 28, LME zinc inventories (including off-warrant stocks) had fallen to 119,600 mt, down by approximately 45,000 mt from mid-June. As overseas inventories continued to decline, the LME zinc market structure shifted from contango to backwardation, with the backwardation widening further. By July 28, the LME zinc cash-to-3M spread had strengthened to US$61.09/mt.

[ Review of H1 2026 Refined Zinc Imports and Exports and Future Outlook] According to customs data, in H1 2026 the global zinc market exhibited a structural divergence of high domestic inventories and low overseas inventories. China’s refined zinc imports showed a rare "one-way decline" pattern, with cumulative imports from January to June reaching 59,600 mt, a cumulative YoY decline of 68.96%, bringing the absolute volume to a historical low......

[June Refined Zinc Imports Exceed Expectations; Will July Exports Increase?] According to the latest customs data, June 2026 refined zinc imports were 5,500 mt, up 500 mt or 9.22% MoM and down 84.85% YoY. January-June cumulative imports reached 59,600 mt, cumulatively down 68.96% YoY. June exports were 2,300 mt, down 40.3% MoM and up 24.49% YoY.

[June refined zinc imports exceeded expectations; can July exports increase?] According to the latest customs data, in June 2026, refined zinc imports were 5,500 mt, up 500 mt or 9.22% MoM and down 84.85% YoY. From January to June, cumulative refined zinc imports were 59,600 mt, down 68.96% YoY. In June, refined zinc exports were 2,300 mt, down 40.3% MoM but up 24.49% YoY.

According to customs data, China's refined zinc imports stood at 5,500 mt in June 2026, up 500 mt MoM. Imports were mainly sourced from Kazakhstan, and by trade mode, they were categorized under Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas, which accounted for 61.93% of the total. Due to the persistently closed import window, Ordinary Trade imports were just 300 mt, representing 6.3%.

[Refined zinc export window nearing opening; will exports surge in June?] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in May 2026 stood at 5,000 mt, down 1,000 mt or 17.15% MoM and 81.28% YoY. From January to May, cumulative refined zinc imports reached 54,000 mt, down 65.28% YoY. Refined zinc exports in May were 3,900 mt, down 0.49% MoM but up 177.81% YoY.

As of May 26, the Shanghai-LME zinc price ratio stood at 6.97, continuing its downward trend from 7.4 recorded in late March, which has led to a widening import loss of refined zinc ingots in China. According to calculations by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the current import loss of China’s refined zinc ingots has expanded to approximately RMB 3,800 per metric ton of metal.

[Will Refined Zinc Maintain Net Imports in April with Exports Increasing in May?] According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in April 2026 were 6,000 mt, down 8,400 mt or 58.27%% MoM, and down 78.62% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January to April were 49,000 mt, down 61.98% YoY cumulatively. Refined zinc exports in April were 3,900 mt, down 16.22% MoM and up 59.21% YoY.

According to the latest customs data, refined zinc imports in April 2026 were 6,000 mt, down 8,400 mt or 58.27% MoM, and down 78.62% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc imports from January to April were 49,000 mt, down 61.98% YoY cumulatively. Refined zinc exports in April were 3,900 mt, down 16.22% MoM, and up 59.21% YoY. Cumulative refined zinc exports from January to April were 14,000 mt, up 59.69% YoY cumulatively. That is, net imports of refined zinc in April were 2,000 mt, with cumulative net imports from January to April of 34,500 mt.

[SMM Data: Complete Summary of SMM March 2026 Import and Export Data] SMM March 2026 import and export data showed: copper cathode net imports were down YoY; primary aluminum imports reached 255,000 mt, up 14.8% YoY; refined lead imports climbed sharply; zinc ingot imports were up 220% MoM; tin ore imports were up 122% YoY; silver imports were up 93% MoM; steel exports rebounded MoM; PV module export value was up 122.7% MoM; silicon metal exports were up 43% MoM, and magnesium exports hit a multi-year high. Among new energy materials, exports of LiPF6 and artificial graphite surged significantly.