As of July 28, LME zinc inventories (including off-warrant stocks) had fallen to 119,600 mt, down by approximately 45,000 mt from mid-June. As overseas inventories continued to decline, the LME zinc market structure shifted from contango to backwardation, with the backwardation widening further. By July 28, the LME zinc cash-to-3M spread had strengthened to US$61.09/mt.

[SHFE/LME zinc price ratio fluctuated around 6.9]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio fluctuated around 6.9, and the zinc ingot import window remained persistently closed. Outside China, on the macro front, repeated geopolitical news caused fluctuations in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, affecting the market. Tariff policy expectations stirred again, combined with persistently low zinc inventories outside China, and LME zinc continued to fluctuate at highs.

Zinc calcine processing fees edged down in May—how will they trend in June?

[SHFE/LME zinc price ratio continued to fluctuate around 6.9]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio fluctuated around 6.9, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, on the macro front, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East showed signs of easing, expectations of monetary tightening strengthened against the backdrop of rising inflation, and with ex-China zinc inventory persistently low, LME zinc fluctuated at highs.

As May draws to a close, the Tianjin zinc ingot market exhibited operational characteristics of "stable supply, constrained consumption, and elevated inventory." Entering June, the market widely expects the oversupply to be difficult to reverse, with evident signs of weakening downstream consumption. Premiums are expected to remain in the doldrums going forward.

[SHFE/LME zinc price ratio maintained fluctuating trend near 6.9]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio maintained a fluctuating trend near 6.9, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, tensions in the Middle East had not yet eased, increasing market uncertainty. The US dollar index pulled back, and combined with persistently low ex-China zinc inventory levels, LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

[How Should Zinc Consumption Be Viewed Against the Backdrop of Geopolitical Conflicts?] Q1 2026 had passed, and the overall recovery in post-holiday consumption was somewhat delayed. How would consumption perform going forward?

With the rapid growth of the galvanizing, die-casting, and alloy industries across Southeast Asia, regional zinc consumption has continued to rise, supported by expanding import volumes. Indonesia and Malaysia have become the most representative zinc ingot import and trading hubs in the region......

On Monday, October 13, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global refined zinc and refined lead markets are expected to face a significant supply surplus in 2026.

According to SMM data, zinc ingot inventory in Guangdong continued to climb to a yearly high as of Monday, reaching 36,900 mt. The substantial pressure from high inventory directly impacted trading sentiment and pricing trends in the spot market, causing premiums and discounts to fluctuate at lows recently, which has become a focal point for market attention. Below, we will analyze the future development of premiums and discounts in Guangdong from both supply and demand perspectives.