Ferrous metals showed slight divergence this week, with coking coal outperforming while iron ore, coke, and coil and rebar were generally weaker, and iron ore led the decline. During the week, news of the U.S.-Iran conflict fluctuated, but the market...

Today, the DCE iron ore futures futures consolidated on a subdued note. The most-traded DCE I2609 futures contract closed at 746 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell about 2-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, with relatively few inquiries from steel mills.

[SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Drifted Lower on July 24] SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices drifted lower compared with the previous working day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 144,200 yuan/mt today, drifted lower after opening, moved sideways below the average price line (143,800 yuan/mt) in the morning, and hit a low of 141,300 yuan/mt; around midday, bulls and bears repeatedly struggled in the 141,000–144,000 yuan/mt range, with trading volume increasing in stages; in the afternoon, bulls briefly exerted strength, pushing the price to surge to 145,800 yuan/mt, before it encountered bearish selling pressure and drifted lower. The contract then consolidated at lows around 144,300 yuan/mt in the late session, finally closing down 0.88% at 144,300 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 13,209 lots. In the spot market, downstream purchase willingness moderated, with purchasing mainly as needed; upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm and hold back from selling for spot orders, trading more with downstream through long-term contracts. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions relatively slowed down.

This week, the rare earth oxide market was under pressure and in the doldrums overall, with the price centers of Pr-Nd, dysprosium, and terbium moving lower to varying degrees, though a notable divergence signal emerged toward the weekend. Pr-Nd oxide declined steadily from early in the week through Thursday, falling from about 763,000-766,000 yuan/mt to 752,000-755,000 yuan/mt, a cumulative drop of around 11,000 yuan/mt during the week. On Friday, boosted by higher futures prices and positive news, spot suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices decreased, and offers rebounded slightly, but actual transactions followed up limitedly, while downstream magnetic material enterprises' inquiries remained sluggish. Dysprosium oxide showed a sustained grind lower this week. Prices held steady at the start of the week, but against a backdrop of persistently sluggish inquiries and stagnant trading, the price center gradually moved down, and as of today, dysprosium oxide pulled back to the 1.4-1.42 million yuan/mt range. Terbium oxide saw the widest fluctuations this week, falling steadily over the first four days, with offers pulling back to the 6.7-6.8 million yuan/mt range by Thursday. On Friday, as a top-tier player entered the market to purchase, low-priced cargo quickly dried up, suppliers raised offers accordingly, and prices rebounded slightly. Overall, the main drag on the rare earth market this week was weak downstream demand. Entering the off-season in July, magnetic material enterprises saw insufficient new orders, adopted extremely cautious procurement strategies, and only maintained essential restocking, with inquiries and transactions staying sluggish. Meanwhile, the spot Pr-Nd oxide market was weighed down by heavy wait-and-see sentiment, with an intense tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Some traders cut prices slightly to sell, but plants, supported by costs, were more willing to hold prices firm, making low-priced cargo consistently hard to find, which led to a stalemate in actual transactions. Currently, overall trading activity in the rare earth oxide market remains low, and the sustainability of Friday's price rebound is yet to be seen. Looking ahead to the near term, with the stalemate between upstream and downstream, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range, with limited room for either a sharp rise or fall. Supporting factors lie on the supply side—recently, some raw ore separation enterprises have suspended operations, and scrap recycling enterprises' production has stayed persistently low, keeping overall oxide supply relatively tight and providing a bottom to prices. Conversely, drags come from the demand side: in the short term, new orders for magnetic material enterprises are unlikely to recover quickly, buyers show low acceptance of high prices, and the market lacks momentum for sustained upward movement. For heavy rare earths, dysprosium and terbium are expected to gradually stabilize after this week's correction as major players step in to purchase. In the medium term, most industry participants hold expectations of demand recovery in the traditional peak season at the end of Q3, and coupled with potentially improving new export orders, the rare earth price center still has potential to trend steadily higher after a period of consolidation. However, in the short term, close attention must be paid to downstream restocking pace and the procurement moves of top-tier players.

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in north China was 5,650-5,700 yuan/mt, down WoW; SiMn 6517 (cash) in south China was 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, down from last Friday, and SiMn 6014 (cash) in south China was 5,350-5,400 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Recently, SiMn futures were weak and moved sideways in a narrow range, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, spot prices fell, and futures and spot prices were largely aligned.

July 24 News: North China ports: 46% Australian lumps at 41.5-42 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate at 34.7-35.2 yuan/mtu, down WoW; Gabonese at 39.3-39.7 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African high-iron at 29-29.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron at 36-36.5 yuan/mtu, stable WoW. South China ports: 46% Australian lumps at 42.9-43.4 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate at 36.7-37 yuan/mtu, down WoW; Gabonese at 40.9-41.4 yuan/mtu, stable WoW; South African high-iron at 31.5-32 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron at 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, stable WoW. Manganese ore market prices continue to grind lower, end-use demand remains tepid, and trader sell-offs at reduced prices are relatively common.

Iron ore futures consolidated on a subdued note today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 746 yuan/mt, down 0.13%. Spot prices at Qingdao Port fell about 2-3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Trader activity was moderate, with limited inquiries from steel mills. Currently, spot trading sentiment was sluggish. Fundamentally, SMM data showed that total iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports stood at 144.92 million mt, down 210,000 mt MoM, extending the destocking trend. Over the same period, daily average port pick-up volume edged down 15,000 mt to 3.205 million mt. Despite a sharp drop in port arrivals, the destocking pace of iron ore inventory slowed, reflecting weak demand. Looking ahead to next week, affected by a new round of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan, the decline in hot metal output may widen, keeping iron ore prices under pressure in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the upcoming Politburo meeting will release any bullish policy signals.

[SMM Analysis: Supply Tightens but Demand Weak, Rare Earth Market Sees Stalemate; Will Prices Recover in the Short Term?] This week, the overall rare earth oxide market was under pressure and in the doldrums. The price centers of Pr-Nd, dysprosium, and terbium all declined to varying degrees, but a clear divergence signal emerged towards the weekend. Pr-Nd oxide declined continuously from the beginning of the week to Thursday, falling from approximately 763,000-766,000 yuan/mt to 752,000-755,000 yuan/mt, a cumulative drop of about 11,000 yuan/mt. On Friday, boosted by higher futures prices and favorable news, spot suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices diminished, with offers rebounding slightly. However, actual transactions followed slowly, and inquiries from downstream magnetic material enterprises remained sluggish.

SMM, July 24: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2609 contract closed at 23,345 yuan/mt today, up 85 yuan/mt or 0.37% on the day. Trading volume increased notably from the previous session, reaching 208,200 lots intraday. Volume expanded during the bottom-out rebound, indicating buying support at low levels and heightened tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Current open interest was 296,300 lots, down 5,885 lots. The simultaneous pullback in open interest and price gains formed a rally-on-declining-open-interest structure, suggesting short-term bears actively covered and exited, rather than new bulls entering aggressively. The upward momentum was biased toward short covering, with limited new buying power. SMM Commentary: Macro front, the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to escalate. U.S. forces carried out further airstrikes against Iran on July 17, while Iran launched large-scale attacks on U.S. military targets in Kuwait and Syria, and struck U.S. facilities in Bahrain. Amid repeated Middle East tensions, concerns over interest rate hikes persisted. Supply continued to recover, but the destocking trend was hard to reverse in the near term. Under the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate with adjustments in the short term. Later focus should be on the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and geopolitical conflict trends, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and China’s downstream processing orders and aluminum semis export data. The most-traded alumina 2609 contract closed at 23,225 yuan/mt today, down 55 yuan/mt or 0.24%. Trading volume was 157,800 lots, slightly expanded. During the sideways consolidation, volume expanded mildly, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts continuing at current price levels, showing no signs of concentrated fund exodus or aggressive moves by either side. Open interest was 253,000 lots, down 5,166 lots. The slight price decline alongside falling open interest formed a retreat-on-declining-open-interest pattern, with some bulls actively taking profits and exiting, while bears did not add positions aggressively to push prices lower. Downside momentum was weak, suggesting a healthy pullback within the consolidation, not a trend reversal to weakness. SMM Commentary: Total alumina inventory nationwide edged up MoM, with limited overall fluctuations. By segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because spot prices remained relatively high, prompting downstream smelters to slow their procurement pace of high-priced raw materials and rely more on consuming in-factory inventory. Alumina refinery inventory increased slightly, but maintenance and production cuts at some Shanxi enterprises and new capacity releases in south China offset each other, keeping overall growth relatively limited. At ports, inventory rebounded due to consecutive arrivals of new vessels. Warrant inventory continued to decline, affected by invoicing issues and the narrowing spread between futures and spot prices, which weakened the willingness to deliver to warehouses. In-transit and station inventory accumulated, mainly as previous warrants expired and were released into the spot market, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, increasing supply in the circulation link. In the short term, the alumina market operating pattern is expected to remain largely unchanged. Although some enterprises using domestic ore have maintenance arrangements, the impact on monthly production is limited, and inventory levels are likely to remain at current status. On the price front, as regional spot mismatch issues gradually ease, the spot price center may pull back slightly, with subsequent trends likely to be under pressure. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions, do not substitute this for independent judgment, and any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

In the spot market, SMM #1 lead prices showed a weakening trend on the end-user side this week (July 13-17, 2026), with the weekly average price falling 30 yuan/mt WoW and the overall price center shifting lower. As the week approached month-end, on the one hand, downstream lead-acid battery enterprises cut production due to poor orders, further weakening month-end procurement demand; on the other hand, supply in the primary lead and secondary lead markets increased somewhat, and spot market discounts continued to widen. Especially in the primary lead segment, suppliers actively widened discounts to sell and clear inventory at month-end. In north China, spot discounts widened further, from parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory at the start of the week to a discount of 50 yuan/mt ex-factory; traders’ quotations widened from discounts of 140-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2608 contract to discounts of 220-160 yuan/mt ex-factory. For secondary lead, at the start of the week smelters still held back from selling at low prices, with secondary refined lead quoted around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory, later gradually shifting to discounts of 100-50 yuan/mt ex-factory.