SMM Nickel News, March 23: Macro and market news: (1) Trump demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or its power stations would be destroyed. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded that if Trump's threat to attack Iranian power stations were carried out, Iran would immediately take four measures, including fully closing the Strait of Hormuz. (2) Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 Annual Conference on March 22 that China would continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy. A range of monetary policy tools, including the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), policy interest rates, and open market operations, would be used in a comprehensive manner to maintain ample liquidity. Spot market: On March 23, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) fluctuated at highs during the session and closed the morning session at 134,810 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Nickel prices are currently in a phase of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued increases in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions have formed a solid bottom, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

On March 21, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

According to SMM data, during the second half of the traditional "Golden March" peak consumption season (March 16 - March 20, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2605) trended lower from its highs under the dual pressure of macroeconomic headwinds and tepid actual demand. By the close on March 20, the contract retreated to 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt), down 125 yuan/mt (approx. $18/mt) from last Friday's close of 14,275 yuan/mt (approx. $2,069/mt). The market's core feature this week was the marginal weakening of previous bullish factors: international macro signals tilted hawkish, raw material upward momentum stalled, and the substantive recovery of end-user demand during the peak season remained lackluster, prompting a rational pullback in futures prices after hitting resistance. Macro-Economy: Divergence Between Global Hawkishness and Chinese Resilience On the macroeconomic front, a significant divergence emerged between global and Chinese economic data and policy directions. Internationally, the U.S. Federal Reserve ushered in a "Super Central Bank Week," deciding to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Influenced by developments in the Middle East and sticky inflation, the Fed's latest dot plot—despite maintaining expectations for one rate cut this year and next—revealed a distinctly hawkish tilt. Market bets on rate cuts for the entire year were slashed to less than 11 basis points. The dashed hopes for loose dollar liquidity weighed on the overall valuation of the base metals sector. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released January-February economic data showing a stable start to the year. Value-added industrial output grew by 6.3% year-on-year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, though real estate development investment still fell by 11.1% YoY. This structural divergence indicates a certain resilience in Chinese manufacturing, but the drag from the property sector continues to cap the upward elasticity of end-user consumption. Fundamentals: Destocking Continues, But Spot Market Feels Lukewarm Fundamentally, social inventories maintained a destocking trend, but the spot market still lacked vigor. The latest SMM data shows social inventories falling further to 979,300 mt this week, a decrease of 18,800 mt from last week's 998,100 mt. The continuous decline in inventories sent a positive industry signal, stabilizing market sentiment to some extent. However, the spot market still felt cold. Overall quotes remained stable, and end-user procurement strictly followed a just-in-time purchasing model, failing to exhibit the across-the-board boom expected during a peak season and leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, although the destocking trend is preserved, constrained by high absolute inventory levels and the anticipated supply increment from March steel mill resumptions, traders are maintaining a steady pace of shipments without resorting to aggressive panic selling. Costs: High-Level Loosening Pauses Cost-Driven Logic The cost side also showed signs of loosening from its highs. As of March 20, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes ended their previous unilateral rally, edging down to 1,084 yuan/mtu (approx. $157/mtu), while high-carbon ferrochrome prices held steady at 8,650 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,254/50 mt). With the pullback in futures prices and the sustained caution of steel mills regarding high-priced raw materials, NPI faced resistance in breaching the 1,100 yuan mark. The stabilization of raw material prices at high levels, coupled with slight price concessions, has temporarily alleviated the upward pressure on steel mills' cost centers, bringing the previously strong "cost-driven" logic to a temporary halt. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week entered a "deep water" zone where peak season expectations are repeatedly tested against reality. The Fed's hawkish stance pressured macro sentiment, while the "tepid" state of just-in-time end-user demand left fundamentals lacking intrinsic upward momentum. However, two consecutive weeks of steady destocking and stable spot quotes have effectively limited the depth of the market's correction. Looking ahead to next week, the market will continue to seek a balance between "high inventories + supply increments" and "continuous destocking + just-in-time demand floor." The key focus will be whether the destocking slope reverses due to concentrated arrivals at steel mills. In the short term, the most-traded SS contract is expected to shift into a broad range-bound trend.

“Gold’s status as a haven may now be tarnished in the eyes of some as the precious metal is falling in price even as war roils the Middle East and financial markets alike, and some may even be tempted to say that the third major bull run in the commodity since 1971 is now over,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

Gold is doing the opposite of what it should. The metal is falling for a reason most investors did not see coming. Wall Street's biggest banks have not changed their outlook. Here is why that matters.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

SMM News: As of March 20, 2026, the market price for Praseodymium-Neodymium (Pr-Nd) metal in China stabilized temporarily at 890,000–910,000 RMB/ton. This article utilizes the SMM Pr-Nd Terminal Demand Calculation Model to dissect the demand logic for 2026 across three core sectors—New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, and Wind Power—explaining the current supply-demand dilemma facing the NdFeB magnet and broader Pr-Nd markets.

[SMM Chrome Weekly Review: Steel Tender Prices Rose, and the Market Remained Temporarily Stable] March 20, 2026 News: Quotes for chrome ore and ferrochrome were unchanged for the time being...

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,000-10,100 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,098.03 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,786.98 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices fell back, mainly driven by macro sentiment disruptions, weak futures, and pressure on both supply and demand. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, coupled with hawkish remarks from the US Fed, dragged SS futures into the doldrums overall, with the bearish impact directly transmitted to the spot market. Stainless steel finished product prices also pulled back across the board, and market pessimism gradually spread. Prices of substitute raw materials also pulled back, while stainless steel mills showed a strong inclination to push for lower prices. NPI traders turned weaker in sentiment and sold at low prices, and the high-grade NPI market also softened. In addition, Tsingshan's April tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was set low, not only below previous market expectations but also lower than current retail quotations, limiting room for ferrochrome prices to rise and eliminating the support from substitute raw materials for stainless steel scrap. Currently, inventory at stainless steel scrap yards remained relatively high. Coupled with tight tax invoice availability, stainless steel mills were not active in procurement tenders, and the procurement pace continued to slow down. Amid the resonance of multiple bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices fell in line with futures and finished products. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, under the overall weak market atmosphere, cost support was difficult to translate into price support and failed to reverse the downward price trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a weak pattern of "futures drag, weaker raw materials, and pressure on supply and demand." In the short term, bearish factors are expected to dominate, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

This week, ferrous metals fluctuated at highs, with raw material ore and coking products outperforming steel. Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, ore and coking products held up well, supported by higher shipping costs and transmission from coal and coke as energy substitutes. In the second half of the week, supply and demand data for hot-rolled coil and rebar were released. The increase in rebar inventory slowed markedly; however, hot-rolled coil demand was lower than the same period last year, and the pace of post-holiday recovery was relatively slow, leaving steel as a whole with limited upward momentum, while futures retreated after rapid rise. In the spot market, trading in the Chinese market was average this week.....