This week (April 24–30, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 64.62%, up 0.19 percentage points WoW. This week, some smelters in the Yunnan region resumed production after maintenance, leading to a slight increase in lead smelting output. Smelters in Hunan and Henan maintained stable production, with overall operating rates flat WoW. A small-to-medium-sized smelter in Anhui saw some relief from raw material shortages, with its operating rate slightly boosted this week. A small smelter in Jiangxi experienced a decline in operating rate this week due to equipment failure and maintenance. Other major producing regions in China maintained overall stable smelting production.

Spot market: SMM #1 lead ingot prices remained stable from the beginning of the week through mid-week, then declined toward the weekend. Ahead of the Labour Day holiday, downstream stocking willingness was subdued, with only sporadic rigid-demand purchases. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and overall spot order trading was sluggish. By region, Henan was dominated by long-term contract deliveries, with traders offering discounts of 200-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2606 contract, and transactions at high prices were lackluster. In Hunan, spot order premiums narrowed from 0-30 yuan/mt to 0-20 yuan/mt, with some traders making shipments at slight discounts. Jiangxi quotes remained firm, with premiums pulling back from 150 yuan/mt to 120 yuan/mt. In Guangdong, ex-factory premiums continued to decline throughout the week, narrowing from 70-80 yuan/mt to 30-50 yuan/mt. Overall, lead prices were stable early in the week before weakening. Smelters' sentiment to hold prices firm gradually softened with some price concessions, but downstream rigid demand weakened ahead of the holiday, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and spot cargo transactions were mediocre overall.

SMM April 30: SHFE lead fluctuated this week, with prices pulling back slightly near the weekend. On the raw material side, scrap battery procurement prices were largely stable overall, with only a few smelters in east China and north China making slight reductions early in the week. Current scrap battery retirement volumes remain at low levels, with tight supply for both recyclers and smelters. Smelter arrivals declined significantly WoW this week, with raw material inventory maintained at low levels of only 1-2 weeks. Combined with recyclers generally taking 2-6 days off for the Labour Day holiday, short-term supply circulation is expected to be further constrained. Looking ahead to next week, smelter procurement prices are expected to remain largely stable: upward adjustments are constrained by finished lead profit pressure, while downward adjustments are supported by low raw material inventory, leaving limited room for fluctuations in either direction.

SMM April 30 update: Lead prices fluctuated at highs before pulling back this week, with secondary refined lead generally trading at discounts. Early in the week, smelter maintenance increased and regional supply tightened, with quotes maintained at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers saw weak rigid demand ahead of the holiday, and market trading was sluggish. From mid-week to the weekend, lead prices weakened. Raw material cost support narrowed quotes to a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, as downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday and spot cargo transactions remained weak. Regional secondary lead supply contracted as smelters held prices firm on shipments. Combined with stable scrap battery procurement prices, smelting costs pulled back somewhat, and losses were slightly repaired. As of April 30, large enterprises posted losses of 109 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 309 yuan/mt. Next week, scrap battery raw material inventory will remain tight, some smelters will cut production, and secondary lead supply will contract. Downstream consumption will remain weak, the weak supply-demand pattern on both sides will continue, and industry losses will be difficult to improve. Secondary refined lead is expected to maintain a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt.

Lead concentrate TCs remained generally stable this week. Some mine enterprises indicated that lead concentrate TCs had almost no room for further decline, while imported ore prices were still mainly quoted at -$150 to -$130/dmt. Affected by the recent tight supply-demand conditions of zinc concentrates and copper concentrates, some suppliers of lead concentrates rich in zinc and copper adjusted the pricing methods for copper and zinc. Although the comprehensive value of such copper- and zinc-rich lead concentrates was raised, the pricing of lead and precious metals within them remained unchanged, and the silver payable indicators for lead concentrates with various silver contents in the market remained firm.

SMM April 30 update: This week, mainstream transaction prices of domestic ordinary secondary crude lead (tax-exclusive) were 15,250-15,350 yuan/mt, with overall subdued downstream procurement. Previously contracted imported crude lead arrived at ports, supplementing the spot market. The current lead import window is closed, with very few new orders signed. Looking ahead to next week, secondary lead supply in China is expected to remain generally stable, and the inflow of ex-China sources is expected to further pull back.

April 30 update: Northern ports: South African high-grade iron ore at 33.1-35 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 39.8-40.3 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; Gabon at 44-44.6 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps at 45.5-46 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-grade iron ore at 36-36.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 37.8-38.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; Gabon at 42.5-43 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps at 45-45.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW from last Friday.

SMM News, April 30: From April 24 to April 30, 2026, SMM data showed that the weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces in China was 40.54%, down 4.6 percentage points WoW. Maintenance pace diverged among Anhui smelters, with one resuming production after prior maintenance and another halting due to equipment failure. The operating rate in Anhui edged up 1.7 percentage points this week and is expected to pull back 2.4 percentage points next week. In Henan and Inner Mongolia, some enterprises cut production due to insufficient raw materials. A large smelter in Jiangsu halted production, dragging down the regional operating rate by 17.23% next week. The overall operating rate next week is expected to decline 6.8 percentage points WoW.

SMM April 30 News: As of April 30, secondary lead finished product inventories stood at 18,000 mt, edging up 320 mt from April 23. Downstream enterprises largely completed their earlier stockpiling, and purchase willingness was subdued this week ahead of the holiday, driving a slight inventory buildup in finished product inventories. Looking ahead to next week, multiple secondary lead smelters plan to halt production for maintenance, and supply tightens; meanwhile, downstream enterprises will also enter the holiday with weak demand, and secondary lead inventory is expected to maintain a tight balance.

[Price Review] This week, Middle East geopolitical concerns resurfaced, with the US-Iran standoff continuing to escalate: on April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz; on April 29, the US explicitly prohibited its individuals and entities from paying such fees to Iran, while warning non-US entities that payment would face significant sanctions risks; on April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran's abandonment of nuclear weapons was the bottom line for negotiations, stating that communication with Iran was underway via phone. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainties over the global economic outlook, and precious metals remained under pressure. On the US Fed front, the April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence persisting—one member advocated for an interest rate cut while three members opposed releasing easing signals. Powell broke decades of industry convention by announcing that after stepping down as Fed Chairman, he would remain as a governor until early 2028; he explicitly stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the independence of the US Fed's monetary policy-making while undermining the institution's own stability. Whether the conflict risks further escalation will continue to dominate global market risk appetite and energy price fluctuations, exerting significant impact on silver price trends. Industrial demand side, sluggish downstream consumption persisted, and as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises opted to stockpile small quantities on dips. Gold/silver ratio side, as of April 29, the LBMA gold/silver ratio rose to 62. [Key Data] Bearish: Middle East geopolitical conflict continued to escalate, with the US-Iran standoff over Strait of Hormuz transit fees intensifying. Core negotiation demands were completely opposed, and the deadlock over waterway blockade and military confrontation remained unresolved, pushing up sticky inflation expectations and reinforcing the US Fed's stance of maintaining higher interest rates for longer. The US Fed's April FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal policy divergence hitting a 34-year high. The overall stance was neutral-to-hawkish, with no clear interest rate cut signal released. Market expectations for rate cuts within the year cooled significantly, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated at highs, continuously suppressing silver valuations. Inflation stickiness in the US and Europe exceeded expectations. US March CPI rose to the highest YoY and MoM since 2024, and the eurozone March core CPI final reading was unexpectedly revised upward. Persistent inflation further weakened the necessity for central bank easing. US labor market resilience exceeded expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 posted the largest single-week decline since February, significantly below market expectations, completely eliminating market bets on an emergency US Fed interest rate cut. China's silver industrial demand remained weak, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining only just-in-time procurement. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate, and transaction discounts kept widening. Bullish factors: US March PPI data significantly missed market expectations, with YoY, MoM, and core PPI gains all well below forecasts, releasing signals of marginal inflation easing and preserving room for subsequent Fed interest rate cuts. Dovish divergence within the Fed persisted, with one committee member advocating an immediate rate cut at the April meeting; some officials still believed multiple rate cuts remained possible this year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading; stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven demand for silver. Key data and macro events to watch next week include: May 1: Eurozone April CPI preliminary reading, US April ISM Manufacturing PMI. May 6: US March JOLTs job openings, April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. [Price Forecast] Recent precious metals market trading logic continues to revolve around re-escalating Middle East geopolitical concerns, inflation expectations driven by high oil prices, US Fed monetary policy expectations, and Fed Chairman transition and internal divergence. On the China fundamentals side, downstream consumption remained sluggish; as spot silver prices declined, only some downstream enterprises chose to stockpile small quantities on dips. The upward trend in spot silver ingot social inventory has yet to improve, and the market expects mainstream spot transaction discounts to remain within a narrow discount range relative to the SGE TD price. Silver prices are expected to remain under pressure with volatile trading next week.