On July 6, it was learned from the Ministry of Emergency Management that the Office of the Work Safety Committee of the State Council, together with the Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, the Supreme People's Court, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Justice, recently issued a notice, deploying all regions and relevant departments to earnestly implement the guiding principles of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important instructions on work safety, strictly enforce the spirit of the national work safety video conference, and, in conjunction with the three-year action to address the root causes of work safety and the investigation and rectification of major accident hazards, focus on key industry sectors such as mines, chemical industry, fire protection, and industrial and trade, and deeply carry out the "crackdown on illegal activities and violations" in work safety.

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [Central Bank Net Injection of 10 Billion Yuan via Open Market Government Bond Trading in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) recently released data on liquidity injections through various tools in June 2026, showing a net injection of 10 billion yuan through open market government bond trading during the month. According to statistics, net injections via open market government bond trading totaled 300 billion yuan in the first six months of this year. The PBOC’s Q1 2026 monetary policy implementation report stated that since the beginning of the year, the PBOC has conducted regular government bond trading operations, flexibly adjusting the scale of operations based on the need for base money injection and bond market conditions. The June injection data also showed a net injection of 200 billion yuan through the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and a net withdrawal of 137.2 billion yuan through other structural monetary policy tools. In addition, net injections through 7-day reverse repos amounted to 582.6 billion yuan, while other-maturity reverse repos saw a net injection of 300 billion yuan. 02 ★★ Oil Prices Post Biggest Single Drop of the Year Oil prices experienced a "three consecutive decline." According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), starting from 24:00 on July 3, the retail prices of gasoline and diesel (standard grade) will be cut by 950 yuan and 915 yuan per mt, respectively. This adjustment marks the largest single reduction this year. Based on calculations by institutions, the price cut is equivalent to a decrease of 0.73 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.77 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.78 yuan per liter for 0# diesel. For a typical private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up a full tank of 92-octane gasoline will save about 36.5 yuan. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [Chinese Passenger Vehicle Market Share in Europe Surpasses Japan for the First Time] According to the latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), China's passenger vehicle market share in Europe surpassed that of Japan for the first time in May. Data shows that in May, five Chinese automakers sold a total of 138,400 vehicles in 31 European countries, up 65% YoY, while six Japanese automakers sold 130,400 vehicles in the same 31 countries, down 3% YoY. 02 ★★ [All 200 Billion Yuan in Funding for the Program of Large-Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade-Ins Has Been Disbursed This Year] Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued the third batch of equipment upgrade project lists and funding allocations this year, supporting equipment renewals in fields such as energy and power, logistics, education, elderly care institutions, offline consumer commercial facilities, old operating trucks, residential old elevators, and the installation of elevators in old residential communities. Since the beginning of this year, the NDRC, together with relevant departments, has optimized the scope of support, improved the application process, strengthened review and approval, accelerated the pace of work, and disbursed equipment upgrade funds in three batches. At present, the full-year 200 billion yuan equipment renewal funds have been fully allocated, supporting about 11,000 projects across 22 sectors, providing strong support for accelerating industrial upgrading, promoting green development, improving people’s well-being, and strengthening security safeguards. From January to May this year, investment in equipment and tool purchases increased by 9.3% YoY, accounting for 17.5% of total investment, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year. 03 ★★ [CISA: Monthly Report on Main Steel-Using Industries, January-May] From January to May, the construction sector among main steel-using industries remained sluggish, while manufacturing continued its overall growth. Specifically, the real estate market continued its adjustment, and infrastructure investment slowed compared with earlier periods. The value added of the machinery industry and export value of electromechanical products maintained growth, automobile production continued to edge down slightly, all three major shipbuilding indicators in the shipbuilding industry grew rapidly, production of the three major white goods in the home appliance industry all maintained growth, and container production continued to decline. 04 ★★ [June Heavy-Duty Truck Market Sales Up 18% YoY] According to statistics from cvworld.cn, China’s heavy-duty truck market sold about 115,000 units in June 2026, up about 5% MoM from May and up 18% from 98,000 units in the same period last year, while the YoY growth rate slowed somewhat compared with the March-May period. This was also a record high for June sales in the past five years. In January-June, cumulative heavy-duty truck sales in China reached about 660,000 units, up about 22% YoY. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [Shenzhen Property Market Continues Stable and Positive Momentum] According to the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau, in June, the Shenzhen property market sustained the strong momentum following the April 29 new policy. Total online registrations for new commercial housing and second-hand residential properties in the city reached 8,878 units, up 14.2% YoY, and the real estate market continued its stable and positive trend. In the new home market, online registrations for new commercial residential properties in Shenzhen totaled 3,785 units in June, up 15.6% YoY, with the new home market continuing to improve. High-quality residential projects remained highly sought after. The commercial property market also performed well, with business apartments highlighting cost-effectiveness advantages. In H1, first-hand and second-hand office buildings and business apartments in the city recorded transactions of 6,567 and 6,238 units, respectively, soaring 103.0% and 70.2% YoY, respectively. ⭕ [Shenlong Group’s “Yunnan Strip New Material Base” Fully Put into Operation] On July 2, 2026, the galvanizing workshop of Yunnan Shenlong Tengda New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Yunnan Shenlong”) reported another success—the continuous hot-dip galvanizing/aluminum-zinc line with an annual capacity of 250,000 mt, contracted by Huangshi Shanli Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter “Shanli Technology”), was successfully put into operation. This was the third line successfully commissioned within a month, following the startup of a continuous hot-dip galvanizing line with an annual capacity of 500,000 mt on June 1 and a continuous hot-dip galvanizing/Zn-Al-Mg line, also with an annual capacity of 500,000 mt, on June 16 of this year. It marks the full commissioning of the three continuous hot-dip galvanizing/aluminum-zinc/Zn-Al-Mg lines built by Shanli Technology for Yunnan Shenlong, injecting strong new momentum into the supply of high-end new coated sheet and strip materials for China’s southwestern region! *This report is an original work and/or a compilation work of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMM”). SMM lawfully holds the copyright and is protected under the Copyright Law of the People’s Republic of China and other applicable laws, regulations, and international treaties. Without written permission, the content may not be reproduced, modified, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. 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Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Upon discovery of any such act, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to requiring the party to bear contractual default liability, return unjust enrichment, and compensate for direct and indirect economic losses. The views expressed in this report are derived from market information gathered and a comprehensive assessment made by SMM’s research team. The information provided in the report is for reference only and is at the reader’s own risk. This report does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use it as a substitute for independent judgment. SMM bears no responsibility for any decisions made by clients. Moreover, SMM shall not be liable for any losses or liabilities arising from unauthorized or illegal use of the views expressed in this report. SMM reserves the right to amend and the final interpretation of this statement ​

★Macro★ 01 ★★ [State-owned Major Bank's 5-Year Personal Certificate of Deposit 'Reappears' with Annualized Interest Rate of 1.6%] Although over the past two years, mainstream major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks ceased issuing certificates of deposit with terms over 3 years. But just as H2 began, a state-owned major bank reintroduced them. On July 1, Bank of China announced on its official website that it would issue the first tranche of personal certificates of deposit for 2026, offering seven terms: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year. As long-term certificates of deposit issued by nationwide commercial banks have largely disappeared from the market, the issuance by Bank of China this time means that 5-year certificate of deposit products from state-owned major banks 'reappear.' 02 ★★ [Central Bank: Net Injection of 200 Billion Yuan via Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on its official website today the liquidity injection through various central bank tools for June 2026. Data showed that in June, net injection via MLF was 200 billion yuan, net injection via standing lending facility (SLF) was 0 yuan, and net injection via other structural monetary policy tools was -137.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, in open market operations, in June, net injection via government bond trading in the open market was 10 billion yuan, net injection via 7-day reverse repo was 582.6 billion yuan, net injection via central treasury cash management was 0 yuan, and net injection via reverse repos of other tenors was 300 billion yuan. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 ★★ [NDRC's Liu Gang Leads Team to China Iron and Steel Association for Work Survey] To gain an in-depth understanding of the steel industry's development, on June 29, Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Monitoring Center, led a team to CISA to conduct a work survey, and held discussions with Diao Li, Deputy Secretary General and Director of the Information and Statistics Department of CISA, as well as Li Xiaochuan and Li Baojun, Deputy Directors of the Information and Statistics Department. The two sides, considering the new characteristics of steel industry development at this stage, conducted in-depth exchanges on aspects such as price trends across the industry chain's upstream and downstream, compilation of price indices, and optimization of monitoring indicators. 02 ★★ [2025 Annual Dual-Credit Calculation Results for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises Released] Four departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, recently jointly announced the 2025 average fuel consumption and NEV credit status of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises. In 2025, a total of 108 passenger vehicle enterprises in China produced/imported 24.629 million passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs, excluding export passenger vehicles), with an actual average fuel consumption under WLTC conditions of 3.38 liters per 100 kilometers, average carbon dioxide emissions of 80.22 grams per kilometer, positive fuel consumption credits of 53.553 million points, negative fuel consumption credits of 9.412 million points, positive NEV credits of 21.94 million points, and negative NEV credits of 1.599 million points. 03 ★★ [Changsha One Commercial-Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 165 Million Yuan] On July 2, Changsha auctioned one commercial-residential plot in Furong District, with a planned GFA of 28,109.20 sq m (commercial-residential ratio of 1:9), a plot ratio of 5, a starting price of 165 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 5,884 yuan per sq m. Finally, the local private enterprise Hunan Dayou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 165 million yuan. 04 ★★ [Nanjing One Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 570 Million Yuan] On July 2, Nanjing auctioned one residential plot in the Qilin Area of Jiangning District, with a planned GFA of 56,779 sq m, a plot ratio of 2.4, a starting price of 570 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 10,041 yuan per sq m. Finally, Nanjing Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 570 million yuan. 05 ★★ [South Korea Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Carbon Steel and Alloy Steel HRC Involving China] According to China Trade Remedies Information, on June 23, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued Order No. 35, officially imposing anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel HRC originating from China and Japan, with the duty rate for Chinese products ranging from 28.16% to 33.10%; meanwhile, it approved the price undertakings proposed by three Japanese enterprises and six Chinese enterprises, and will not impose anti-dumping duties on enterprises that comply with the price undertakings. The announcement took effect on the date of its issuance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Launches Level-IV Emergency Response for Flood and Typhoon Prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong] According to meteorological forecasts, the tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to develop into a typhoon on July 2, make landfall on the eastern coast of Hainan Island on the afternoon or evening of July 3, and then make a second landfall on the coast of Guangxi or northern Vietnam on the afternoon or evening of July 4. As a result, it is expected that from July 3 to 5, parts of Hainan Island, Guangdong, and Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas seeing extremely heavy downpours. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong at 12:00 on July 2, and dispatched a working group to Hainan for frontline guidance and assistance. ⭕ [US Treasuries Rise as Weak Employment Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations] US Treasuries rose after a weaker-than-expected US employment report prompted traders to scale back expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Fed in the coming months. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swaps showed that traders expected the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates at its meeting later this month to be around 20%, down from 33% before the data release. The market was pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027. ⭕ [US June Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 57,000, Far Below Market Expectations] US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (estimate: 113,000; prior: 172,000). Private payrolls rose by 49,000 (prior: 97,000; estimate: 107,000). Manufacturing payrolls increased by 3,000 (prior: a decrease of 2,000), matching expectations; the forecast range of 15 surveyed economists was a decline of 1,000 to an increase of 10,000. ⭕ [Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels] Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are near pre-war levels; as of Wednesday, the kingdom exported 6.3 million barrels per day over a six-day period. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work exclusively created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys the copyright, protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws, regulations, and international treaties. Without written permission, no entity may reproduce, modify, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or license any third party to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to claims for contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. The content contained in this report, including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, images, sounds, videos, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, and any or all other information, is protected by laws such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, and applicable international treaties regarding copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data property rights, and other rights, and is owned or held by SMM and its relevant rights holders. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or license any third party to use it. Otherwise, upon discovery, SMM will take legal action to pursue infringement liability, including but not limited to demanding assumption of contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. The views in this report are based on information gathered from the market and a comprehensive assessment by SMM's research team. The information provided in this report is for reference only, and risks are assumed by the user. This report does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this report. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM. Furthermore, any losses and liabilities arising from unauthorized and illegal use of the views in this report are unrelated to SMM. SMM reserves the right to modify and the final interpretation of the terms of this statement. ​

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [Oil Prices May Return to the 7-Yuan Era] According to China's refined oil product price adjustment cycle, the 13th adjustment window of the year will open at 24:00 on July 3, with only 3 statistical working days remaining and 70% of the current pricing cycle completed. As reported by Dazhong Daily, the decline in oil prices has continued to widen during this cycle, deepening for six consecutive days from an initial drop of just over 0.4 yuan to the current level exceeding 0.65 yuan. The trend of a substantial cut appears largely irreversible, and this Friday evening may mark the year's first triple consecutive decline in oil prices, as well as the fourth price reduction in 2024. As of the calculation data from the 7th working day, estimated figures show a cut of 820 yuan/mt for gasoline and 790 yuan/mt for diesel. Converted to retail terminal unit prices, estimates show a drop of 0.66 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.7 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.68 yuan per liter for 0# diesel. The two previous adjustments in June had already achieved a double consecutive decline, with cumulative cuts of 1,040 yuan/mt and 1,000 yuan/mt for gasoline and diesel respectively, equivalent to a cumulative price drop of between 0.84 and 0.89 yuan per liter. The price of 92-octane gasoline has fallen below 8 yuan, returning to the 7-yuan range. Once this round of cuts takes effect, the national average price for 95-octane gasoline may fall below 8 yuan, re-entering the 7-yuan era. 02 ★★ [US and Iranian Officials to Hold Indirect Talks in Doha] Sources stated on July 1 that officials from the US and Iran will hold indirect talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, later that day. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [Shenzhen Real Estate Market Hits New High for June Transactions in Nearly Six Years] According to data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, first-hand and second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM yet up 14.2% YoY. The combined transaction volume was the highest for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations for new housing (pre-sale and existing) amounted to 3,785 units, a decrease of 16.7% MoM but an increase of 15.6% YoY, while second-hand housing transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. Monitoring data indicates that both new home pre-sales and second-hand home transactions in Shenzhen for the month reached record highs for the same period over the past six years, marking the best June performance for the property market in nearly six years. 02 ★★ [China-Made Air Conditioners See Export Orders Surge from Europe] Data shows that only about 20% of European households have air conditioning installed. Due to the concentrated surge in European demand for cooling, export orders for Chinese-made air conditioners have continued to grow. Air conditioning enterprises are working overtime to produce and fulfill these export orders. At an enterprise's air conditioner production workshop in Jiangmen, Guangdong, workers are rushing to assemble air conditioner parts. Since March this year, the enterprise’s export orders to the European market saw a sharp increase, with exports in May exceeding 800,000 units, up 20.3% YoY. The person in charge told the reporter that many residential buildings in Europe were built long ago, building facades are subject to strict controls, and installation procedures for traditional split air conditioners are complicated with high approval thresholds. Mobile air conditioners produced by Chinese enterprises, which require no outdoor unit and no wall drilling, precisely match the usage scenarios of local homes, apartments, and shops. An air conditioner enterprise’s sales in the French market in June surged over 100% YoY, while its Italian market sales rose 30% YoY in June. 03 ★★ [Chongqing: Promoting Housing "Trade-in" and Optimizing Support Policies such as "Selling Smaller to Buy Larger" and "Transfer with Mortgage"] The Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee is publicly soliciting opinions on the "Chongqing Urban Housing High-Quality Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Comments)". It proposes to promote a virtuous cycle in the new and second-hand housing markets, advance housing "trade-in", optimize support policies such as "selling smaller to buy larger" and "transfer with mortgage", reduce transaction costs, and foster synergy between the new and second-hand housing markets. Based on the "Yuyue Anju" system, fully implement online contract signing services for existing homes, establish and improve mechanisms for supervision of existing home transaction funds, listing and release of property listings, and price monitoring; simplify the transaction process, strengthen real estate registration information sharing, automatically verify property information, and promote "one-stop acceptance" and full online processing of transaction services. 04 ★★ [TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company Successfully Trials T1100S-Grade Ultra-High-Strength Carbon Fiber in a Single Attempt] According to China Baowu, recently, the TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company under China Baowu successfully trial-produced T1100S-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in a single attempt, with excellent performance across all key indicators, reaching domestic leading and international advanced levels. Carbon fiber is a key strategic material supporting aerospace and high-end equipment manufacturing. From aircraft structural components to rocket casings, breakthroughs in lightweight materials directly determine the performance ceiling of equipment. The T1100S grade, meanwhile, is a top-tier high-modulus, ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in the industry, with extremely high technical barriers, and has long been a key focus of China’s new material breakthroughs. 05 ★★ [In H1, New Home Prices in 100 Chinese Cities Edge Up Cumulatively, While Second-Hand Home Prices Fall] In the first half of this year, new home prices in 100 Chinese cities continued a structural uptrend. In June, the average new home price in the 100 cities was 17,184 yuan per m², up 0.16% MoM and up 2% YoY. Second-hand home prices in the 100 cities fell cumulatively. In June, the average second-hand home price in the 100 cities was 12,639 yuan per m², down 0.42% MoM and down 7.68% YoY. Core cities were the first to show positive signals: Shenzhen’s second-hand home prices turned to a month-on-month increase in June, while Shanghai’s second-hand home prices rose MoM for four consecutive months. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ [China Fully Enters Main Flooding Season Today] Starting July 1, China fully entered the main flooding season. According to forecasts and comprehensive assessments, during the main flooding season (July–August), both northern and southern China will see areas of heavy rainfall, with the north facing relatively severe flooding, more frequent localized extreme rainstorms and floods, and stronger typhoons moving northward to affect inland areas. Meanwhile, parts of the southwest and northwest may experience periodic droughts due to high temperatures and low rainfall. The flood control and drought relief situation is severe and complex. On the morning of July 1, the Ministry of Water Resources organized a rolling consultation to analyze and assess the current and near-term development of rainfall, water conditions, flooding, and drought, and deployed targeted key preventive measures accordingly. Based on the 24-hour rainfall forecast, the ministry issued province-specific targeted early warnings to 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Liaoning, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. These warnings detailed lists of counties (cities and districts) under heavy rainfall coverage, reservoir lists, and flash flood disaster risk areas and locations, and reminded relevant parties to ensure safe reservoir operation during flooding, and to guard against small and medium river floods and flash flood disasters. ⭕ [Domestic Route Fuel Surcharges to Be Sharply Cut from July 5] 9 Air issued a notice today stating that effective July 5, 2026 (ticket issuance date), domestic route fuel surcharges will be reduced. For routes over 800 kilometers, each passenger will be charged 100 yuan, and for routes of 800 kilometers or less, each passenger will be charged 50 yuan, representing cuts of 50 yuan and 30 yuan, respectively, from the previous levels. In April and May this year, domestic fuel surcharges were raised significantly for consecutive months. Starting June 5, they were reduced by 20 yuan and 10 yuan for the two categories. With the decline in fuel prices, the fuel surcharge reduction in July is much larger. ⭕ ["US ADP Employment Data" Lower Than Expected] US ADP employment for June was 98,000, the lowest increase since March, below the expected 118,000. The prior reading was 122,000. *This report is an original work and/or compilation produced exclusively by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"). SMM legally holds the copyright and is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws and international treaties. No reproduction, modification, sale, transfer, display, translation, compilation, dissemination, or any other form of disclosure of the above content to third parties or licensing thereof is permitted without written authorization. Otherwise, upon discovery, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to demanding the assumption of contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. All contents contained in this report, including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, sounds, videos, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, and any or all other information, are protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties concerning copyrights, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data and information property rights, and other rights. They are owned or held by SMM and its relevant rights holders. Without written permission, no organization or individual may reproduce, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or permit any third party to use it. Otherwise, upon discovery, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to demanding the assumption of contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. The views expressed in this report are based on information gathered from the market and the comprehensive assessment of SMM's research team. The information provided in this report is for reference only, and risks are borne by the user. This report does not constitute direct investment research decision advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace independent judgment with this report. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM. Furthermore, any losses or liabilities arising from the unauthorized or illegal use of the views in this report are unrelated to SMM. SMM reserves the right to amend and the final right to interpret the terms of this statement. ​

In June the aluminum processing industry exhibited a pronounced divergence pattern of "external demand outperforming domestic demand, with the aluminum wire and cable industry unable to sustain the market on its own." Export orders, energy storage, UHV, and other areas provided structural support, but a combination of weak domestic consumption, wild swings in aluminum prices, and policy disruptions made it difficult for the overall industry sentiment to recover markedly in the short term.

SMM learned that a carrier's intelligent computing center in East China is currently offering Huawei Ascend 910-B2 computing power resources for lease at a monthly rent of approximately 15,000 yuan, which is quite price-competitive in the current domestic computing power leasing market. The resources are of the Ascend 910-B2 specification (64GB video memory/full machine), suitable for mainstream large model training and inference workloads. However, SMM understands that the actual clearance of these resources faces certain obstacles: the prospective lessee's existing computing equipment is deployed in its own IDC computer room, and it needs to integrate the newly leased resources with the existing equipment into a unified computing cluster to achieve coordinated scheduling. But the carrier's resources are located in a remote intelligent computing center, and due to constraints such as network latency, cross-room interconnection bandwidth, and operational consistency, the "device travel" solution (i.e., cross-room remote management of computing power resources to incorporate them into the client's own cluster) is difficult to implement, causing the transaction to stall.

On June 17, 2026, the 2026 SMM (3rd) ASEAN Automotive Supply Chain Conference , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), successfully wrapped up at the Hyatt Regency Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok, Thailand! This conference serves as an annual gathering of Southeast Asia's auto industry, bringing together 500+ delegates, 40+ speakers, 10+ partners and 35+ exhibitors from 15+ countries. Conference Background The Southeast Asian EV industry is at a strategic crossroads. Thailand's "30/30" policy is driving adoption, with EV penetration projected to near 15% by 2025. Indonesia is building a full battery chain using its nickel resources, while Vietnam's market potential grows. Amidst supply chain restructuring and technological competition, strategic action is key. The 3rd SMM Asean Automotive Supply Chain Summit 2026 is designed to empower businesses by focusing on: Unlocking NEV Potential: Analyzing ASEAN's role as a production/export hub and examining OEM technology roadmaps. Bridging the Supply Chain: Leveraging SMM's platform to integrate resources and facilitate deals. Establishing a Price Benchmark: Promoting the use of SMM Southeast Asia metals price assessments in procurement. We believe in turning consensus into action. Join us in Bangkok in 2026 to transform strategic blueprints into tangible advantages. 》Click to Watch the Conference Live Video 》Click to View the Conference Photo Live Stream June 16 Main Forum Opening Address Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Opening Keynote: Thailand EV Outlook 2026 Guest Speaker: Dr. Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman and Advisors, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) Dr. Yossapong Laoonual noted that the ownership of battery electric vehicle (BEV) models is expected to surpass that of hybrid models in the medium and long term. Thailand’s BEV penetration rate will also rise steadily, supported by well-developed charging infrastructure. Data shows that the number of DC charging piles in Thailand has continued to grow, with installations already exceeding the government’s planned phased targets. The country’s 2030 charging pile target is 12,000 units, and multiple supporting regulations for motor vehicles have already been implemented locally. Local planning stipulates that each pile should serve 10-15 BEVs. Compared with markets outside China, where each pile in Europe serves fewer than 15 BEVs on average and in China fewer than 10, Thailand currently faces an imbalanced vehicle-to-pile ratio and still requires the large-scale addition of new charging piles. Thailand’s charging piles are primarily located at gas stations, with shopping malls and office buildings as secondary deployment sites. Local gas stations feature diverse commercial formats, offering excellent conditions for setting up charging stations. However, range anxiety remains widespread among consumers, and charging facilities along highways need to be further improved to alleviate concerns about recharging on the road. Opening Keynote: Southeast Asia’s New Automotive Ambition:Can Industry Players Successfully Navigate Transformation Amid Challenges? Guest Speaker: Krzysztof Tokarz, Chairman of the Automotive Working Group, TEBA Founder of Auteneo He stated that there were four core strategic challenges in the electrification transformation of Southeast Asian automakers: First, a shortage of professional talent, with undersupply of high-quality talent in the EV and software fields, fierce competition for industry talent, and enterprises needing to plan for talent cultivation and retention; Second, cross-cultural coordination difficulties: significant differences in working models among Chinese, Japanese, Korean, European, American, and local enterprises, which easily led to issues such as lack of trust and poor cooperation; Third, complex and changing regional regulations: fragmented regulatory systems across Southeast Asian countries, with a fast pace of policy updates over the past year or more, placing high demands on enterprises' policy adaptation capabilities; Fourth, profitability pressure, as electrification reshaped the pricing system, with many automakers experiencing simultaneous contraction in revenue and profit margins, necessitating the exploration of long-term profitable models. Overall, he believed that while he currently maintained a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the development of industry technology and products, the aforementioned challenges still urgently needed to be addressed. Panel Discussion: Leadership Dialogue: East Asian Titans' "Southeast Asian Chessboard" Moderator: David Huang, The Head of Strategy, Marketing and Business Development, Forvia China Panelists: Dr. Yossapong Laoonual, Honorary Chairman and Advisors, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) Suphot Sukphisarn, Honorary Chairman, Auto Parts Industry Club (APIC), The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), Deputy Secretary General, Thai Auto-Parts Manufacturers Association (TAPMA） Krzysztof Tokarz, Chairman of the Automotive Working Group at TEBA, Founder of Auteneo Dr. Viroj Patcharawatanakul, Chief Marketing Officer (CMO), AAPICO Hitech PCL. The panelists noted that ASEAN countries have distinct industrial advantages: Malaysia has ample electronic factory resources, Indonesia possesses mineral resources needed for battery production, and Vietnam offers comprehensive labor incentive policies. To fully leverage each country's locational appeal, overall integrated planning is required. The ASEAN NEV market is expanding rapidly overall, with the regional EV penetration rate more than doubling. Thailand and Vietnam have seen impressive growth in XEV production and sales. Local vehicle production capacity remains stable, and Chinese new energy brands such as BYD, MG, and Great Wall have established a presence in Thailand, driving up demand for new energy parts supply. Thailand has a well-established multi-tier parts supply system: 27 vehicle manufacturers, 500 Tier 1 suppliers, and 1,800 Tier 2 and Tier 3 parts producers. Traditional mechanical processing industries like stamping, injection molding, rubber processing, machining, casting and forging, and assembly have a solid foundation, with huge annual parts capacity, providing the manufacturing capability to support new energy parts production. Keynote Speech: Navigating Automotive Disruption in Southeast Asia Guest Speaker: Timothy Wong, Principal, Roland Berger Roland Berger noted that AI-driven automation continues to advance and autonomous driving is developing steadily. It is expected that by 2040, autonomous driving will still struggle to become mainstream. However, AI technology has already disrupted the automotive industry, becoming a core driving force for enterprises to build differentiated advantages, enhance competitiveness, and innovate business models. The automotive industry is currently undergoing comprehensive disruptive changes, mainly in five dimensions: First, the automotive supply chain value chain is undergoing fundamental transformation, with vehicles and core parts upgrading toward electrification and electronics. Industry enterprises urgently need to adjust their product structures and proactively position themselves in emerging tracks; passively responding to market changes will entail significant risks. Second, the nature of automotive products is being reshaped by technology, shifting from traditional mechanical vehicles to software-defined vehicles. Sole mechanical manufacturing capabilities can no longer meet development needs; enterprises must build diversified cooperation ecosystems involving semiconductors, software, and sensors to cultivate new industrial capabilities. Third, the consumer market is undergoing significant iteration, with consumer car purchase preferences gradually tilting toward emerging brands, and industry competition continuing to intensify. Fourth, the pace of market iteration has greatly accelerated. Compared with the model update pace of once every few years by traditional automakers, Chinese brands iterate at a much faster pace, forcing the supply chain toward agile transformation and adaptation to rapidly changing vehicle specifications. Fifth, the aftersales distribution model is being disrupted, with traditional parts revenue being impacted by the growth of EVs. New direct-to-consumer models are emerging, requiring enterprises to restructure their distribution networks and expand aftersales services related to power batteries and electrification. Overall, all industry participants must proactively face transformation risks, actively transform and strategically restructure supply chains, vigorously explore new clients and deploy new businesses, abandon passive thinking that clings to existing models, and proactively plan future business development directions, so as to continuously maintain market competitiveness. Keynote Speech: Moving Beyond Negotiation: Fostering a New Framework for Southeast Asian Supply Chain Collaboration Based on the SMM Price Index Guest Speaker: Sing Yao, Director of Steel Business Unit, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. She noted that Southeast Asia as a whole exhibits low per capita automobile ownership, limited NEV penetration, and a large young population, which holds enormous incremental market potential. This vast blue ocean is attracting leading Chinese NEV manufacturers to accelerate their footprint in the region. At the same time, however, Southeast Asian auto parts are highly dependent on imports, and the industry chain has long faced two major pain points: procurement difficulties and disorderly pricing. The launch of the SMM Southeast Asia Price Index may open up a new path for collaborative development of the local automotive supply chain. Low Per Capita Automobile Ownership, Limited NEV Penetration, and Large Young Population Create Vast Market Opportunities for Automakers According to SMM, in recent years, Southeast Asia’s automotive industry chain has shown remarkable resilience, with regional automobile production growing by 24.1% from 2020 to 2022. Although 2024 saw a cyclical decline for the first time due to global economic sluggishness, the decline in production and sales in Thailand and the broader Southeast Asian market has narrowed in 2025, underscoring the self-repair capability of the regional supply chain. As the region’s core hub, Thailand continues to dominate Southeast Asia’s automotive industry landscape with a capacity share of over 40%. In the short term, Thailand will maintain its position as a regional production center and export base, but its long-term competitive advantages are facing structural challenges: the sustained contraction of local capacity and the upgrading of neighboring countries’ industry chains are compelling it to accelerate technological transformation and supply chain restructuring. Driven by the immense allure of this industry “blue ocean,” leading Chinese NEV manufacturers are accelerating their expansion into the Southeast Asian automotive market. Keynote Speech:Baowu JFE Southeast Asia Strategy Sharing Guest Speaker: Liang Chen, Vice General Manager, Baowu Jiefuyi Special Steel Co., Ltd. He that overall steel production in Southeast Asia is declining, but the penetration rate of new energy electric vehicles (EVs) is surging: Thailand’s EV-related demand is up 80% YoY, while Indonesia’s demand has experienced a multiple-fold rise, with subsequent growth potential continuing to be released. Local NEV manufacturers previously purchased Japanese steel, but are gradually switching suppliers now, driven by industry competition and cost pressure. This also represents a core opportunity for the company to promote its supporting supply services. Leadership Panel: The Steel vs. Aluminum Debate and Cost Challenges Moderator: Michelle Leung, Head of Asia Metals and Mining, sustainability, Bloomberg LP Panelists: Thanakorn Thangwanichkapong, Director of Asia Operations, Maxion Wheels Martin Dilly, Southeast Asia Area Sales Director, Bureau Veritas The panelists noted that multiple disruptions, including the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and national tariff adjustments, have moved beyond short-term impact and are driving the restructuring of the entire steel and aluminum industry chain, with the structural transformation of the aluminum industry being particularly pronounced. Global supply chain vulnerability continues to intensify, and upward cost pressure on the industry has increased. Tariff barriers are reshaping the global trade landscape, and market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The implementation of industrial localization has accelerated, but the pace of progress in Southeast Asia has seen a slowdown. Overall, only enterprises that possess both flexible logistics and procurement capabilities and a robust compliance management system can gain an advantage amid the industry transformation. Keynote Speech: Analysis of Southeast Asia's Secondary Aluminum Market and Price Trends Guest Speaker: Wong Yan Ling, Senior Aluminum Analyst, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. She noted that Southeast Asia has become one of the fastest-growing secondary aluminum markets globally, and the worldwide competition for scrap resources is continuously reshaping the regional supply landscape. As resource protection policies are progressively implemented across various countries and regional manufacturing demand steadily expands, ASEAN countries are expected to further consolidate their core position in the global secondary aluminum industry chain. Regarding secondary aluminum price trends in H2 2026, SMM analysis suggests that weak seasonal demand in Southeast Asia may suppress the upside room for secondary aluminum prices, while the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a key variable affecting market trends. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, cost pressures from logistics could ease. However, persistently tight scrap supply coupled with potential logistics disruptions may still drive up regional secondary aluminum prices. Specialized Seminar: Co-building a Resilient Automotive Materials Supply Chain for Southeast Asia Moderator: Sing Yao, Director of Steel Business Unit, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Panelists: Zongyan Fu, Purchasing Manager, Changan Auto Southeast Asia Co., Ltd. Weijiang Xue, Chief Engineer of Product R&D, Jiangsu Yonggang Group Co.,Ltd. Hui Yuan, General Manager, Tianjin Dewy Metal Surface Treatment Co., Ltd. Yi Huang, Deputy General Manager, Guangdong Superband Precision Industry Co.，Ltd. Thanakorn Thangwanichkapong, Director of Asia Operations, Maxion Wheels Hongwei Liu, General Manager, BYH NEW TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD. Saurabh Sharma, Sr General Manager & Executive Director, Hero Motors Thai Ltd. Zou Xiang, Business Office Director, Baowu Jiefuyi Special Steel Co., Ltd HaiBin Jia, Deputy Marketing Director, Beijing Jianlong Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd. The panelists engaged in in-depth exchanges, drawing from their own business practices, focusing on the core topic of deep development in the Southeast Asian automotive industry. They focused on enterprises' current business layouts, operating status, and development trends in the Southeast Asian automotive market, and deeply analyzed core pain points and challenges such as supply chain adaptation, stable supply, and logistics support in the process of going global. At the same time, they shared detailed experiences regarding common challenges faced by enterprises going global, including localization certification, compliance system adaptation in and outside China, and alignment of policy standards. They also discussed core paths for enterprises to anticipate market changes, precisely allocate industrial resources, and quickly adapt to regional market rules and industry demands, focusing on industry trends. Furthermore, focusing on supply-demand coordinated development, they elaborated on their expectations for future cooperation models, collaboration mechanisms, and partnership needs with Chinese material suppliers. As buyers, they also clarified the types and directions of high-quality Southeast Asian clients they plan to prioritize for connection and cooperation, providing practical ideas and references for precise supply-demand matching and deep cultivation of the Southeast Asian automotive market for Chinese enterprises going global. Day 2: June 17 Keynote Speech: Analysis and Outlook of the Supply Chain in the Southeast Asian New Energy Market Speaker: Jena Wang, New Energy Consulting Project Manager, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. She stated that driven by the rapid growth of the Southeast Asian NEV market, several automakers are accelerating their localization strategies. Battery demand in each country will also increase rapidly, with the region's total battery demand expected to grow by about ten times from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately 201 GWh. However, it is worth noting that currently, Southeast Asia faces issues with low localization rates, significant structural gaps, and heavy import dependence for cathode materials and motor components. In Southeast Asia, the supply of local cathode materials and key motor components cannot meet demand, and the low localization rate and large capacity gaps have become key bottlenecks restricting the development of the NEV industry chain in the region. Data indicates that China's global production share of key new energy raw materials—such as batteries, cathode materials, lithium chemicals, and rare earth permanent magnets—generally exceeds 70%, with its capacity ranking first worldwide, demonstrating a significant advantage. In addition, she introduced the capacity distribution and industrialisation progress of key materials in the new energy markets of core Southeast Asian countries. Vietnam: Local automaker VinFast is boosting rapid development of the entire vehicle and upstream/downstream supporting industry chain. Thailand: As a core hub for automotive manufacturing and export in Southeast Asia, it boasts a relatively complete supporting system for motor and electric drive-related industries. Malaysia: It possesses a mature automotive industry foundation, but its local supporting capability for the three electric systems is insufficient; local policies focus on supporting vehicle assembly and regional distribution operations. Indonesia: With abundant nickel resources, it holds a pronounced competitive edge in the battery raw material industry. Overall, SMM believes that the capacity for core new energy components in Southeast Asia is relatively small. National policies are promoting localisation and industrial upgrading, leaving significant room for supply chain development. Leadership Panel: Supply Chain Security and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Moderator: Peter Klöpfer, Senior Manager Automotive Business Unit, RUTRONIK Electronics Worldwide Panelists: Akshay Prasad, Principal, Arthur D. Little SEA Alex Zhan, Head, ZF LIFETEC Thailand Asst.Prof.Uthane Supatti Ph.D., Head of the Power Electronics Applications and Energy Management (PEEM) Research Unit, Faculty of Engineering at Sriracha, Kasetsart University, Thailand Vice President, Electric Vehicle Association of Thailand (EVAT) The panelists discussed about core themes of the Southeast Asian automotive supply chain. First, they addressed the delivery timeline crisis caused by sudden supply shortages, the crisis of lacking transparency in the industry chain, the crisis of industry-wide collaboration barriers, and the crisis of trust failure between upstream and downstream players. They jointly explored systematic resolution strategies and elaborated on their respective countermeasures. Building on this, the on-site guests further discussed the Japanese industry chain and China’s domestic supply chain, analyzing the development opportunities, long-term prospects, and practical implementation logic of two-way opening, healthy competition and cooperation, and deep integration between the two. Leadership Panel: Capacity Coopetition and Customer Breakthrough: Winning the Southeast Asian Supply Chain Battle Moderator: Wacharapisuth Thannapong, Researcher, BCG (Bio-Circular-Green Economy Policy) Research Team, Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) Panelists: MARK BRIAN PIRIE, Senior Vice President Purchasing & Supplier Management Asia Pacific, Executive Board Member, Schaeffler Frank Yu, General Manager of the Automotive Rubber & Metal Components Business Unit and Thailand Branch, Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation The panelists assessed the overheating of three-electric system (battery, motor, electronic control) capacity in Southeast Asia. They noted that overcapacity in three-electric systems is a global trend. The capacity now deployed in Southeast Asia and Thailand already exceeds confirmed demand, intensifying market uncertainty and heightening investment concerns. Risks are structurally differentiated: Tier-1 suppliers are more conservative and risk-averse compared to China’s domestic vehicle makers that are rapidly going global. There is localized overcapacity in basic e-drive parts and low-difficulty electronic components, while supply bottlenecks persist for key items such as high-performance automotive-grade semiconductors, advanced materials, and electrical steel. This is also a core motivation for Chinese suppliers setting up in Southeast Asia. Moreover, Southeast Asia’s geographical advantages are prominent, and mine development in Australia is progressing rapidly. Many mines are set to commence production by Q3 next year. The core contradiction in the industry is not simply overall surplus, but a mismatch between the regional allocation of capacity, the technologies adopted, and actual market demand. Additionally, the guests noted that the core challenges in Southeast Asia and Thailand revolve around three major issues: regional adaptation, supply chain gaps, and industrial competition and collaboration. Enterprises must independently weigh risks and expansion scales based on their own supply chain conditions to find a development balance suited to their needs. Meanwhile, to adapt to the unique environment of Southeast Asia—characterized by high temperatures, high humidity, floods, complex road conditions, and underdeveloped charging infrastructure—the EV technologies originally designed for the Chinese and European markets must undergo localized R&D and verification. This process ensures the reliability of batteries, electronic controls, and lubrication systems, as well as overall vehicle durability. It is recommended that Tier 1 suppliers and upstream partners proactively collaborate in depth with OEM design teams. Even for domestically mature production car models going global in Southeast Asia, it is essential to iterate and optimize products by leveraging local expansion opportunities while drawing on the cost, process, and quality control expertise gained from large-scale domestic production. Leadership Panel: Techno-Economic Analysis and Strategic Pathways for Battery Material Localization in Southeast Asias Moderator: Jay Yu, Senior director, SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. Panelists: Brian, Sales Director for the Electrolyte Division in Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, TINCI Materials Max Miao, Director, SEVB Thailand Feng Hao, Southeast Asia Marketing Director, Hefei Guoxuan High-Tech Power Energy Co., Ltd. The panelists noted that amid the restructuring of global manufacturing, Southeast Asia’s lithium battery industry faces both challenges and opportunities. Enterprises are following downstream OEM clients in going global, establishing nearby supply systems centered on customer needs. Three key operational aspects require consideration. First, at the policy level, Southeast Asia’s lithium battery industry must supply both the local market and target exports to Europe and the U.S. Regional policy changes have far-reaching impacts, requiring enterprises to conduct ongoing in-depth analysis and implement corresponding response strategies. Second, in terms of human and cultural factors, local traditions and family values are distinct, necessitating flexible management that fully respects local customs, cares for local employees, and stabilizes production teams. Third, regarding the industry chain, the region’s upstream lithium battery materials are notably underdeveloped. Key raw materials such as high-purity solvents, lithium chemicals, and functional additives currently rely heavily on imports from China, Japan, and South Korea. The establishment and improvement of local upstream and downstream supply capabilities urgently need to be addressed, making this a key focus for future enterprise deployment. In addition, they also mentioned that in H2 this year, NEV-related subsidies in Southeast Asia may be gradually phased out, and Thailand's EV 4.0 policy and the year-end tax rebate policy will also undergo adjustments. Drawing on China's NEV development experience, local automakers will gradually break free from reliance on policy subsidies and instead compete in the market by leveraging product strength and market-based pricing. This year, Thailand's NEV sales are conservatively estimated to reach 120,000 units, with a potential to hit 160,000 units. Compared with Japanese car models, Chinese NEV models have ample room for price adjustment, offering a clear advantage. Currently, battery enterprises are actively assisting automakers in expanding markets and securing more orders, while also suggesting that automakers moderately raise vehicle selling prices. The industry generally believes that automakers will most likely offset the operational pressure from subsidy reductions through price adjustments in the future. Procurement Matchmaking Meeting >Click to view more highlights from the event Check-in & Networking This is the end of the 2026 SMM (3rd) ASEAN Automotive Supply Chain Conference . Thank you for the support of all industry peers. See you next year!

[SMM Analysis] Overseas HRC prices Declined More Than Chinese Prices; Overall Procurement Demand Continued to Weaken Passive Contraction in China–Foreign HRC Price Spreads and Blocked Export Channels Price spread models showed entirely diverging trends. Steel billet price spreads were relatively stable, while HRC spreads continued to contract. The China–India HRC spread, after a streak of declines in mid-June, recently plunged to -36, an all-time low in the table. This figure was not only far above the quarterly average of -65, but also well below the current monthly average of -49. The root cause is not a sharp slide in Chinese export prices, but rather extremely weak Indian domestic demand. To defend their domestic market share and digest surplus production, local steel mills in India adopted a highly aggressive "defensive price-slashing" strategy. Meanwhile, given the domestic supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still room for further downside in Indian domestic steel prices in the near term, and the China–India spread will hover at lows. Data source: SMM Monsoon Rains Suppressed Downstream Demand; Indian Steel Market Was in the Doldrums Weighed down by the traditional demand off-season due to the monsoon rainy season and generally very cautious purchasing attitudes among buyers, Indian long steel prices remained under pressure last week. Rebar EXW prices dropped notably to around $630/mt EXW, hitting the lowest level since May. In contrast, Raipur billet showed slightly more resilience, with prices edging up about $2/mt to around $453/mt EXW. This was mainly supported by a boost from earlier transactions and short-term support from buoyant sentiment in surrounding markets, though current spot procurement remained cautious and restrained. Notably, Chhattisgarh has planned to raise electricity prices, which is expected to push up the production cost of electric furnace billet by about $3–4/mt starting in July, providing some cost support. Overall, the Indian steel market will continue to face a mix of weak demand and cost support in the near term, and prices are expected to remain on a weak fluctuating trend. Off-Season Suppressed Rigid Demand and Shipping Disrupted: Southeast Asian Steel Market Stayed in the Doldrums Short-Term Due to seasonal factors, construction activity rates in core Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand have recently been low, directly limiting the release of rigid demand for long products like rebar and wire rod. Currently, major local mills' rebar EXW prices in Southeast Asia were generally weak, ranging between $520–535/mt EXW. Meanwhile, due to persistently subdued sentiment in end-user buying, destocking in the market remained relatively slow. Facing the current weak market, most buyers chose to wait and see, with purchasing strategies mostly centered on "purchasing as needed and buying just enough for immediate use." Additionally, stimulated by progress in US–Iran negotiations and news that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, buyers in the Southeast Asian market grew more expectant of a pullback in ocean freight rates. Driven by the desire to "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn," this expectation further amplified the market's bearish and wait-and-see sentiment. Still, the actual easing of shipping pressures stemming from geopolitical issues will take some time, and international freight rates are expected to remain mainly high and volatile in the short term. New Quotas Taking Effect on 1 July Prompted Full Buyer Wait-and-See; European HRC Trading Mediocre, Import Offers Weakened MoM Last week, the overall European steel market was relatively mediocre, with sellers and buyers locked in deep standoffs ahead of the policy window period, and both spot and import markets were subdued: In Germany, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with August–September delivery remained at €680–700/mt EXW. In Italy, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with July–August delivery were at €670–680/mt EXW. Most European buyers generally chose to refrain from booking and are fully waiting for the new import quota system that will officially take effect on 1 July. End-users and traders are eager to assess the actual restrictive impact of the new policy on future import volumes in order to readjust their procurement strategies. At the same time, hit by a double blow from sluggish European domestic demand and uncertainty over the quota policy, steel import activity in Europe also dropped to a freezing point. At present, HRC offers for August shipment from Turkey and Asia to Europe have pulled back to €640–650/mt DDP. With a lack of buyer support, overseas mills' forward export offers showed clear signs of weakening on a MoM basis. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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[SMM Insights] China's Steel Export Landscape to Middle East Reshaped: Finished Products Stall while Billets Stand Out Looking back at 2025, the Middle East market was undoubtedly the most dazzling "emerging dynamic market" in China's overseas steel landscape. In 2025, China's total steel exports to the Middle East reached 15.81 million mt, with monthly shipments basically stable in the high range of 1.2–1.3 million mt. Against the backdrop of total annual steel exports of 134 million mt, up 14% YoY, the Middle East market accounted for 11%–12% of China's total overseas steel export share. This means that in a single geo-economic region, its share and strategic reliance were second only to Southeast Asia, serving as the "second largest core pillar" for China's steel going global. In terms of product mix, high-added-value HRC (29% share), steel pipes essential for oil and gas projects (18% share), and medium-thickness plates (14% share) formed the three dominant players, reflecting the region's strong diversified industrial and infrastructure throughput capacity. However, it was precisely due to such a massive trade base in 2025 and high reliance on conventional Persian Gulf shipping lanes that when geopolitical storms suddenly struck and straits were dramatically blocked, the resulting "broad market stall" and supply chain disruption were so severe. Below, we will analyze in order: the specific situation of China's steel exports to the Middle East, how cargo pressure was shifted through port replacements during the strait blockade, and how the export landscape will be reshaped after the latest US-Israel negotiations? The "Stall" and Structural Anomaly of China's Steel Exports to the Middle East Data Source: SMM, China's General Administration of Customs First, let's look at total export performance. According to SMM historical data and the latest customs export trends, China's total steel exports to the Middle East in the first four months of 2026 plummeted from 5.47 million mt in the same period of 2025 to 3.57 million mt, with April exports directly halving. Specifically, among China's 5.47 million mt of steel exports to the Middle East from January to April 2025, a highly advanced finished-product-oriented export characteristic was evident. HRC (29%), steel pipe (18%), coated steel (15%), and medium-thickness plates (14%) constituted the four mainstays of China’s steel trade. In terms of destination countries, Saudi Arabia’s rigid demand for offshore/oil & gas pipe (986,000 mt) and the UAE’s strong processing throughput of general HRC (1.607 million mt) and medium-thickness plates (779,000 mt) jointly established the traditional “dual-core consumption hinterland” within the Persian Gulf. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Supply Shock and Physical Scissors Gap: The “Billet Export Bonanza” Under a Double Squeeze Since the start of 2026, the blockade of the Persian Gulf Strait caused by geopolitical conflicts significantly weakened overall shipments, while a dramatic “underlying mutation” simultaneously unfolded in the product mix. Steel billet, a minor product that previously accounted for only an 8% share (431,000 mt), registered a strong countertrend increase of 24% in the first four months of 2026. According to the SMM survey, the underlying driver of this anomaly originated from a localized supply shock induced by geopolitical shifts in Iran. If the closure of the Persian Gulf Strait severed the “aorta” of Middle Eastern steel imports, the sudden destruction of Iran’s two largest steel giants—Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC) in Isfahan and Khuzestan Steel Company (KSC)—on March 27, 2026, completely ignited a “raw material upheaval” within the region. Iran is the world’s tenth-largest and the Middle East’s largest crude steel producer (accounting for over 50% of the region’s total crude steel output), with annual steel exports exceeding 10 million mt, among which semi-finished steel billets are the absolute mainstay. Mobarakeh (MSC) has an annual capacity of 11.8 million mt (20% of Iran’s total capacity), making it the undisputed “King of Flat Products/Sheets & Plates” in the Middle East; Khuzestan (KSC) is Iran’s second-largest steel producer and its most critical production base for slabs and billets. Data source: SMM, General Administration of Customs of China Under normal conditions, Iran was the primary supplier of low-priced steel billets to local rolling mills in the Middle East. With the sharp contraction in Iran's external supply, rolling mills in the Middle East, particularly in Oman and parts of the UAE outside the Gulf that were not directly affected by the blockade, faced severe raw material supply disruption risks. To maintain production, local buyers quickly released a large number of urgent inquiries to the international market. According to SMM survey, the huge demand gap for steel billets created by Iran's exit was filled and shared by supplies from China, India, and Russia. Because the local shortage was mainly crude steel raw material for rolling sheets and plates, and the equipment destruction from explosions meant that rolling lines were the first to restart, the main incremental product in these counter-trend orders was steel slab. This situation shares similarities with the article at https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bsrZaRRSRDHC_FmGLulJOQ (Middle East turmoil triggers "mismatch", China accelerates filling a supply vacuum of about 2.3 million mt in Southeast Asia), which mentioned that China would accelerate taking over steel billet supply gaps. That is, despite the decline in steel exports this year, billet exports also achieved counter-trend growth. Stock Game: The "X-Shaped Crossover" of Inside-Gulf Shutdowns and Outside-Gulf Safe Havens Verified by SMM through freight forwarders, steel trade (especially medium-thickness plates, pipes, and steel billets) relies heavily on bulk or breakbulk vessels. When container liners encounter blockades, they can easily reroute by amending bookings via computer systems, but the diversion of bulk carriers faces rigid constraints from destination port drafts, specialized handling equipment (such as large quay cranes), and inland truck connections. Therefore, over the past two months, the supply chain staged a dramatic "port drift" inside and outside the Persian Gulf. The following uses SMM's panoramic shipping data to explain in detail the changes in cargo flow between ports. Under normal conditions, over 70% of China's steel shipments to the Middle East converged densely on Jebel Ali Port inside the Persian Gulf and Dammam Port on the eastern coast of Saudi Arabia. But after the strait blockade, steel port arrivals at these two traditional hubs showed a historic "physical shock" in SMM's high-frequency shipping data (falling to zero from April to May). Meanwhile, the diverted cargo, fighting to survive, surged wildly toward alternative ports outside the strait, tearing open a "lifeline of safety" spatially: ① "Overload Surge" at Oman's Port of Sohar: As the most critical cross-border multimodal transshipment hub outside the Gulf, its port arrivals in April surged nearly fivefold MoM. Large batches of Chinese HRC and steel billet originally destined for the inner Gulf were forced ashore here, causing massive congestion at the port in May as cross-border heavy truck capacity collapsed. ② "Western Route Counterflow" at Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Port: Saudi Arabia abandoned its eastern sea route (Dammam Port) nationwide, forcibly redirecting all Chinese orders to Jeddah on the Red Sea side, causing its throughput to surge to a peak of 361,000 mt in April. Source: SMM, Google Maps However, it should be noted that while cargo can be transferred via other ports in the short term, port arrivals in May have already shown a weakening trend again. The reason is that alternative ports outside the Gulf simply cannot handle such massive and concentrated cargo volumes, leading to extremely severe congestion. According to SMM's survey, because navigation within the Gulf is no longer possible, some shipping lines originally bound for Jebel Ali had to divert to Fujairah, but are still queuing for berths. Jeddah Port faces similar issues. With tight capacity, prices keep surging, and transportation faces severe obstacles. Source: SMM Outlook for Change: With the US-Iran blockade-lifting deal, what impact will the shipping supply chain face? After 108 days of the "dual blockade" (Iran's blockade of the strait and the US's counter-blockade of Iranian ports) that gripped the lifeline of global energy and commodities, the US and Iran officially issued successive high-profile statements announcing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The relevant timeline is summarized below. Data source: Compiled by SMM from public channels The news, once released, triggered a strong market reaction. On one hand, there are expectations for export increments from shipping recovery; on the other hand, there are certain demand expectations for post-disaster reconstruction. According to the latest SMM survey, most exporters have not responded enthusiastically to the lifting of the blockade and remain skeptical about its actual implementation. Therefore, from the perspective of actual order-taking, shipments to the Middle East still need 3 to 4 weeks to be verified. If a full lifting is confirmed, the "demand backlog" caused by the earlier shipping disruptions will see a concentrated release. Based on past customs data and the local supply-demand balance table, SMM roughly predicts that finished steel products will experience strong growth expectations, potentially filling a disaster-induced gap of approximately 1.7-2.1 million mt. Among them, HRC accounts for the highest proportion (29%) of China's finished steel exports to the Middle East. Although the Middle East's largest flat steel giant, Iran's Mobarakeh Steel Company (MSC), has reported production resumptions for its blast furnace previously damaged by war, its capacity is in a post-disaster repair phase and is not expected to fill the local gap in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that Indian resources are seizing the Middle Eastern market at lower prices, which will also pose some impact on China's export order-taking. However, for semi-finished products, the reason Chinese steel billets have been "hot" in recent months is the supply gap caused by the strait blockade and the bombing of Iranian steel mills. Once Iran's logistics fully recover, Chinese steel billets will lose their advantage in absolute price, logistics distance, and surrounding multilateral competition, and the demand gap in Southeast Asia previously filled by substituting Iranian sources may also be reclaimed. Recently, according to SMM surveys, billet resources are already circulating in the Middle Eastern market. Through the following comparison of comprehensive landed costs (CFR) for billets in the Middle East, it can be clearly seen that Chinese resources are under comprehensive pressure: Source: SMM Therefore, steel billet exports to the Middle East are expected to be somewhat limited, with competition only possible at lower prices. Preliminary forecasts indicate a pressure reduction of 50,000–250,000 mt. However, we need to broaden our perspective to the global multilateral trade context, and we must not fall into excessive pessimism due to localized marginal reductions. Although the billets exported to the Middle East are under pressure, the incremental steel billet volumes that previously replaced Iranian exports to Southeast Asia may not necessarily be wiped out. Given the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and based on considerations of a more stable supply chain, Southeast Asian buyers may continue to source from Chinese suppliers. Therefore, against the backdrop of an overall steel recovery and resilience in steel billet prices, SMM maintains its earlier view, holding a moderately optimistic stance on annual steel exports, with expectations of "steady incremental growth." Finally, it needs to be added that, currently, due to severe port congestion, even if the strait is confirmed passable, it will still take a long time for actual cargo to arrive and cannot immediately be reflected in the data. At the same time, ocean freight rates will also maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term due to unfavorable port cargo pick-up. 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SMM June 12 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 1.51%, SHFE tin rose 2.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.94%. SHFE aluminum rose 1.06%. SHFE zinc rose 0.43%. SHFE lead fell 0.31%. In addition, casting aluminum linked futures rose 0.45%, alumina most-traded linked futures rose 1.45%. Lithium carbonate most-traded linked futures rose 3.85%. Silicon metal most-traded linked futures rose 0.63%. Polysilicon linked futures rose 5.91%. Ferrous metals all rose, iron ore rose 0.13%, rebar rose 0.66%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.74%, stainless steel rose 2.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.02%, coke most-traded contract rose 5.63%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:38 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.01%, LME aluminum rose 0.54%, LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.26%, LME tin rose 0.25%, LME nickel rose 0.67%. Precious metals: as of 11:38 AM, COMEX gold rose 2.63%, COMEX silver rose 5.36%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded linked futures rose 1.89%, SHFE silver most-traded linked futures rose 4.36%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded linked futures rose 3.99%, palladium most-traded linked futures rose 5.69%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 1.16% to 3,929.5 points. As of 11:38 AM on June 12, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at 270 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, standard-quality copper reported at a premium of 210 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt, SX-EW copper reported at a premium of 150 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,715 yuan/mt up 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,625 yuan/mt up 1,075 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 9 consecutive days and has now hit a new low for the year... Macro front China: [PBOC's open market operations net injected 178 billion yuan on the day, and net injected 885.8 billion yuan this week] PBOC conducted 393 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 215 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 178 billion yuan on the day. This week, PBOC conducted 1,112 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, with 226.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, realizing a net injection of 885.8 billion yuan this week. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou: Fully Advance the Implementation of Major Projects Such as Intelligent Connected Vehicles and NEVs, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits, and Low-Altitude Economy] The “Guangzhou Commerce Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)” was released for public consultation. It highlighted the need to fully advance the implementation of major projects including intelligent connected vehicles and NEVs, ultra-high-definition video and new-type displays, green petrochemicals and new materials, intelligent equipment and robotics, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and integrated circuits, and low-altitude economy, and cultivate a group of leading intermediate product enterprises that are high-tech, manufacturing single champions, and specialized and sophisticated. Promote the accelerated development of intermediate product trade in foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases, and cultivate a number of well-known brands and “chain leader” enterprises. Support enterprises in using technologies such as the industrial internet, big data, and artificial intelligence for digital transformation, improving production efficiency and product quality, and driving the intermediate product trade to leap toward high-end and digital-intelligent development. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.75. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike have been pushed back from December this year to January next year, and the possibility of a rate hike this year is no longer fully priced in. (Jinshi Data APP) Amid sustained inflationary pressure driven by the Iran war, US producer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in more than three years. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022, and rose 1.1% MoM. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% YoY. The report highlighted the growing damage to the US economy from the energy price shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, businesses are passing on higher energy and transportation costs, and other goods and services are also becoming more expensive. Combined with data earlier this week showing that consumer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in three years, Thursday's PPI report may further strengthen market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in 2026. As the labour market appears to be regaining growth momentum, the US Fed is shifting its focus to curbing inflation. On the data front: Today will see the release of Germany May CPI MoM Final, UK April Three-Month GDP MoM, UK April Manufacturing Production MoM, UK April Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance, UK April Industrial Production MoM, France May CPI MoM Final, US June 1-Year Inflation Expectations Prelim, and US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim. In addition, watch for: the Huawei Developer Conference on June 12-14; Elon Musk’s commercial space company SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 1.12% and Brent crude down 1.15%. The US and Iran may reach a preliminary agreement on a memorandum of understanding, causing oil prices to pull back slightly. According to CCTV, on June 11 local time, US President Trump posted on the social media platform “Truth Social” that, given that consultations with Iran had been submitted to the highest leadership of Iran and approved, he had canceled the strike and bombing operation originally planned for that night against Iran. According to the latest OPEC data, Iran’s crude oil production fell 19% last month, as the US blocked the country’s ports amid the ongoing conflict. Data from the monthly report released on Thursday showed that Iran’s daily output dropped by 546,000 barrels to 2.33 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest monthly report showed that the organization on Thursday lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking its second consecutive downward revision. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the producer group has believed that the conflict’s impact on consumption has been consistently smaller than that estimated by other forecasters such as the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which expect demand to decline in 2026. In addition, the report noted that the oil producer group raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►