Acerinox, Spain's largest stainless steel producer, said EU imports fell 31% year on year in the first half of 2026 even though end-use demand remained subdued, pointing to policy rather than consumption as the driver. CBAM took effect on January 1, and the European Commission's revised trade defence measures came into force on July 1, cutting annual quotas by 55% and applying a 50% tariff on out-of-quota volumes. CEO Bernardo Velazquez said the measures are needed to offset surplus exports from overcapacity countries and restore European competitiveness. With only one month of the new quota regime reflected in H1, the full displacement effect on Asian mills shipping into Europe should become clearer in Q3 and Q4 arrivals data.

[SMM Analysis: June Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip Exports Hit New Monthly High for the Year; Transfer Order Recall and Potential Pullback Pressure in H2] In June 2026, China's exports of aluminum plate/sheet and strip reached 354,000 mt, up 10.6% MoM, setting a new monthly high for H1 2026. In H1, total exports amounted to 1.7891 million mt. By destination, Mexico topped the list with 45,300 mt, surging 46.4% MoM; US exports pulled back 29.2% MoM to 26,100 mt. By exporting province, Henan and Shandong together accounted for over 43%, continuing to lead the nation. In terms of product mix, exports of 0.2-0.28 mm aluminum alloy sheet (mainly can stock) reached 153,700 mt, accounting for 43.5%, continuing to dominate the export market. Notably, the production line of a leading North American rolling mill began to resume in June, and transfer orders have been gradually recalled. The high export activity driven by the order transfer effect in H1 is expected to face significant pullback pressure in H2.

In H1 2026, China’s sulphur market experienced a full transmission chain of “import collapse – output pressure – export stagnation”. Key figures: Production: National sulphuric acid output in January–May fell 1.6% y‑o‑y, with significant declines in traditional phosphate fertiliser producing provinces like Hubei, Guizhou, and Yunnan, while Anhui and other smelter‑acid‑concentrated regions saw growth. Exports: Sulphuric acid exports practically halted in June......

This week (July 4–10, 2026), the secondary aluminum market outside China remained in the doldrums, with the price centers of aluminum scrap and ADC12 declining further. As the impact of supply disruptions in the Middle East gradually faded, market trading logic returned to supply-demand fundamentals, while downstream procurement demand remained sluggish, pushing aluminum scrap and secondary aluminum alloy prices outside China under pressure. The overall trading atmosphere was relatively sluggish.

SMM, June 30: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and Chinese markets mostly fell, with only LME copper and SHFE zinc rising together—LME copper fell 0.17%, while SHFE zinc gained 0.12%. LME aluminum dropped 3.11%, leading the decline; LME nickel, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE nickel all fell more than 2%, with LME nickel down 2.41%, SHFE aluminum down 2.19%, and SHFE nickel down 2.55%. LME tin fell 1.27%, and declines in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.82%, and cast aluminum main contract fell 1.08%. Overnight, in ferrous metals, iron ore gained 0.61%, stainless steel fell 0.92%, HRC and rebar fluctuated with relatively small declines, and in coking coal and coke, coking coal gained 0.16% while coke fell 0.18%. Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 1.61% and COMEX silver fell 1.54%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.25% and SHFE silver fell 0.98%. As of 6:42 AM on June 30, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health"] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, which reviewed and approved the "15th Five-Year Plan Action Plan for Carbon Peaking" and the "15th Five-Year Plan for National Health". The meeting noted that the strategic driving role of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality should be leveraged to promote the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure and create more green economic growth points. It is necessary to focus on key areas and critical links with sustained effort, accelerate the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure, advance industrial greening and low-carbonisation, improve systems for laws, regulations, standards, and carbon emission statistical accounting, conduct evaluation and assessment in a scientific and orderly manner, integrate green and low-carbon orientation into all areas and links of the national economic cycle, promote the formation of green production and lifestyles, and strengthen the green foundation for high-quality development. The meeting noted that in recent years, the construction of a Healthy China has accelerated, and people's health levels have continued to improve. It is necessary to build a full-life-cycle health service system, coordinate resource allocation, strengthen synergy among medical care, medical insurance, and disease control, and provide the public with systematic, continuous, high-quality, and efficient health services. It is necessary to vigorously develop the health industry, improve supporting policies, cultivate and expand new-type service formats in the health sector, enrich the supply of health products, strictly enforce quality and safety supervision, and enable the public to consume with confidence and live healthily. (CCTV News) [Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence] Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting and heard a report on the development of artificial intelligence. The meeting noted that it is necessary to deeply grasp the evolution trends of AI, improve supporting policies and governance systems, and firmly hold the initiative in development. Efforts should be intensified to promote AI innovation and breakthroughs, accelerate key technology research and the construction of ultra-large-scale intelligent computing clusters, strengthen the supply of high-quality data, enhance the guarantee of factors such as talent and capital, and support enterprises in conducting basic research and frontier exploration. It is necessary to deeply implement the "AI+" initiative, leverage China's advantages in having a complete industrial system and abundant application scenarios, and promote the accelerated large-scale commercial application of intelligent products and services. The bottom line of AI safety must be firmly upheld, improving institutional rules on technology ethics and testing and certification, building a dynamically adaptive, tiered, and classified safety regulatory system, and strengthening international cooperation on AI governance. (CCTV News) [Multiple Shanghai municipal departments jointly held a centralized meeting on the compliance governance of ride-hailing platforms] On the afternoon of June 29, led by the Shanghai Ride-Hailing Collaborative Supervision Task Force and coordinating multiple departments including transportation, public security, market regulation, human resources and social security, data, and communications management, a centralized meeting on compliance governance of ride-hailing platform enterprises was held citywide. The main responsible persons from 24 ride-hailing platforms and aggregation platforms in the city attended the meeting. Targeting various problems identified during inspections, the meeting specified five mandatory compliance governance requirements: first, platforms must strictly regulate capacity access management, comprehensively screen and remove non-compliant vehicles and personnel, and strictly prohibit dispatching orders in violation of regulations; second, improve the routine self-inspection mechanism for operational data to ensure that data is reported to regulatory authorities in a complete, timely, and standardized manner; third, implement full-chain control of safety production, strengthen dynamic verification of personnel and vehicle qualifications, and build a solid line of defense for safe operations; fourth, fully standardize the fee disclosure mechanism, with clear price labeling and transparent charging, to protect the legitimate rights and interests of both drivers and passengers; fifth, simultaneously enhance network security operation and maintenance management, complete network security graded protection assessments on schedule, and promptly identify and eliminate system security risks. (Shanghai Transportation) (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.25% to close at 101.11, recording its third consecutive daily decline. US President Donald Trump responded on his social media platform to the "Supreme Court ruling on the case concerning a Federal Reserve Board member", stating: We will take corresponding action regarding the Cook lawsuit to ensure that Cook will not make crucial decisions (on FOMC monetary policy issues). Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari publicly stated last Friday that his assessment of the federal funds rate has undergone a fundamental shift over the past three months. In March of this year, Kashkari still leaned toward the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points. In his latest dot plot projections, however, he has marked one rate hike to be implemented within the year. As an official with voting rights on the FOMC in 2026, his shift in view also reflects a significant adjustment in the Fed's overall policy tone. The market simultaneously digested the signal of a collective hawkish turn by the Fed, leading to notable pricing adjustments. In early June, the probability of a rate hike within the year priced in by the market was only 25%; that figure has now climbed to 67%. (Wall Street CN) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in July is 70.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 29.9%. By September, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 14.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: The yen depreciated against the US dollar to its lowest level since 1986. This "milestone" decline has sparked concerns within Japan and also put traders on high alert, closely watching whether authorities will intervene in the market. The yen briefly fell 0.1% against the dollar, touching 161.96, thereby breaching the 161.95 level reached in July 2024 when Japan took action to prop up the currency. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to 1% on June 16, the highest level since 1995. However, this move had little effect, as traders expect the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance going forward. Furthermore, the Japanese government is expected to call for the implementation of "appropriate" currency management in its basic policy guidelines, a move apparently aimed at dissuading the central bank from further rate hikes. Japan previously conducted record-scale foreign exchange intervention totaling ¥11.73 trillion, yet the yen remained persistently weak. According to the Ministry of Finance's foreign reserve data, Japan likely utilized its holdings of foreign securities, including US Treasury bonds, during this round of intervention to support the currency. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include China's June official manufacturing PMI, US April FHFA House Price Index month-over-month, US April S&P/CS 20-City Unadjusted House Price Index year-over-year, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS Job Openings, US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, UK Q1 GDP final year-over-year, UK Q1 Current Account, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI month-over-month preliminary, France June CPI month-over-month preliminary, Switzerland June KOF Economic Leading Indicator, Canada April GDP month-over-month, and Japan May unemployment rate. In addition, ECB President Lagarde delivered opening remarks at the Global Central Bank Forum in Sintra, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, and the US and Iran held technical negotiations. Notably, on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with Northbound and Southbound Trading shut. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada will also be closed for Canada Day. On the crude oil front: Overnight, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.72% and Brent up 1.34%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions flared up again, but optimistic market expectations for the gradual resumption of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz capped the gains to some extent. Morgan Stanley stated that due to the faster-than-expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with high US exports and low Chinese imports, it lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast. It cut its Q3 2026 price forecast by $15 to $75 per barrel; Q4 2026 by $5 to $75; Q1 and Q2 2027 by $5 to $75; and Q3 and Q4 2027 by $10 to $70. It noted: "For the market to balance in 2027, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz need only recover to 11-12 million barrels per day, about 65% of pre-conflict levels. Looking ahead to 2027, our model assumes this figure will be exceeded, and observable inventories will increase by 3 million barrels per day, which may put pressure on oil prices." (Wall Street CN) According to data from the US Department of Energy (DOE), crude oil inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million barrels, the lowest level since May 1983. This drawdown was part of an agreement reached by the US to release 172 million barrels of crude from the reserve to fill global inventory gaps following the Iran conflict and help lower fuel prices. Amid strong US crude exports and refining demand, US crude inventories have declined rapidly in recent weeks. Since the conflict erupted at end-February, total US inventories through June 19, including commercial stocks and the SPR, have fallen by 111.4 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels, the lowest since 1984. (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump posted that gasoline retailers must immediately lower prices. Given that crude oil prices have fallen to $68 per barrel and are still declining, current gasoline prices are far too high. Retailers must respond swiftly to this statement and take the right actions they know well—lower prices for our great American people. Price gouging will never be allowed; it is completely illegal. If retailers do not comply, they will face major trouble ahead! The target price should be around $2.50 per gallon (note: the current national average gasoline price is about $3.86 per gallon), and California should stop taxing gasoline so heavily. Soon, the tax will exceed the product price itself; the US will never tolerate this, and the people of California won't either—they are being squeezed by these absurd taxes and their state government. (Jin10 Data APP)

US exports of steel concrete reinforcing bars (rebar) totaled 23,288 metric tons (mt) in April 2026, marking a sharp 14.9% decline compared to the 27,365 mt exported in March, and dropping 35.1% relative to April 2025 volumes. Reflecting weaker pricing segments, the total export value compressed to $13.5 million from $15.8 million in the previous month and $16.0 million in the prior year. Cross-border regional supply chains within North America continued to absorb the entire output, with shipments to Canada hitting 10,950 mt (down from 14,707 mt in March) and exports to Mexico settling at 4,343 mt, while no other single international destination exceeded 500 mt. The market impact indicates that prolonged stagnation in Canadian residential construction and commercial fabrication activities has heavily paralyzed cross-border rebar shipment velocity. This severe reduction in outbound flows points to an accumulation of merchant long products at US domestic mini-mills, which will likely compel domestic producers to slash pricing to clear rising inventories

POSCO said Wednesday it streamlined its product line into eight 'strategic steels' run under a new 'One Team' structure that breaks internal divisional silos, with each team handling the full chain from R&D to sales. The eight include stainless steel for next-generation growth markets, PosMAC, high-manganese steel, premium EAF steel, energy heavy plates, electrical steel, GigaSteel and HyperNO. Pohang will anchor energy steels—including high-strength stainless—while Gwangyang focuses on automotive and new-mobility grades. POSCO framed the revamp as a response to rising low-priced imports into Korea and trade barriers abroad, after US tariffs cut its US exports 8% year-on-year, and tied it to Korea's new K-Steel Act—signaling a pivot toward premium specialty products, stainless among them.

According to export data from the US Department of Commerce, US exports of drawn wire reached 7,662 metric tons (mt) in March 2026, marking a 19.4% month-on-month increase, though representing a slight 1.4% decline year-on-year. Correspondingly, the total export value climbed to $20.56 million in March, up from $16.46 million in February and surpassing the $18.84 million recorded in March 2025. Cross-border trade within North America dominated the outbound shipments, with Mexico importing 3,272 mt (up from 2,558 mt in February) and Canada accounting for 2,747 mt, while no other single international destination absorbed 1,000 mt or more.

US exports of structural pipe and tube totaled 13,425 metric tons (mt) in March 2026, marking a 10.1% decline compared to the 14,927 mt exported in February, and dropping 7.6% relative to March 2025 volumes. Reflecting weaker pricing segments, the total export value compressed to $27.0 million from $29.8 million in the previous month and $29.2 million in the prior year. Cross-border regional supply chains within North America continued to absorb the entire output, with shipments to Canada hitting 11,210 mt (down from 12,410 mt in February) and exports to Mexico settling at 1,812 mt, while no other single international destination exceeded 200 mt. The market impact indicates a temporary cooling in commercial construction and structural fabrication activities within the USMCA trade block.

Toyo Co. has rejected AASMT’s anti-circumvention allegations over its Ethiopian operations, calling the petition misleading and inaccurate. AASMT alleged that Toyo and Origin Solar were processing Chinese-origin wafers into cells in Ethiopia for US exports, bypassing existing AD/CVD duties. Toyo said its Ethiopian cells use polysilicon sourced only from the US and Malaysia, with wafers processed in non-China countries, making the supply route compliant with current trade rules. Its Ethiopia facility reached full 4GW capacity in October 2025 and is now fully utilized. SMM believes tighter US trade scrutiny will increase compliance disclosure requirements across solar supply chains.