SMM, August 20: Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.36%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.57%. SHFE lead rose 0.28%. SHFE zinc edged down slightly. SHFE tin rose 1.68%. SHFE nickel rose 1.19%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract edged up, while the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.3%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract rose 0.98%. The most-traded silicon metal futures contract rose 0.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 2.17%, rebar fell 0.46%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.27%. Stainless steel rose 0.63%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.25%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.12%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:40, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper, LME lead, and LME zinc all rose within 0.3%. LME aluminum fell 0.79%. LME tin rose 0.73%. LME nickel fell 0.64%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.11% and COMEX silver rose 2.11%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 2.47%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract rose 4.93%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 4.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.44%. As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe service) futures contract fell 1.46%, to 1,716.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 20, selected futures midday quotes: Spot Market and Fundamentals Aluminum: Futures prices continued their downward trend today, while the spot market in South China remained steady to firmer. The cumulative absolute price decline has been quite substantial, clearly breaking below the monthly moving average. Combined with inventory still destocking steadily and a considerable single-day decline, these two positive factors led most cargo holders to hold back from selling more decisively... Macro Front China: [Unchanged for the 15th Consecutive Month! August LPR Quotes Released: Above-5-Year at 3.5%, 1-Year at 3%] China's Loan Prime Rates (LPR) for August were released on August 20, with both the 1-year and above-5-year LPRs remaining unchanged. The National Interbank Funding Center, authorized by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), announced that the LPRs for August 20, 2026 are: the 1-year LPR is 3.0%, and the above-5-year LPR is 3.5%. These LPRs are effective until the next LPR announcement. As China's 7-day reverse repo rate, the main policy rate, has remained unchanged for 15 consecutive months since its last cut in May 2025, the pricing basis for the LPR did not change this month. The last LPR adjustment occurred in May 2025, when both the 1-year and above-5-year LPRs were lowered by 10 basis points. [Beijing E-Town: To Accelerate Large-Scale Production of 100,000-Unit-Level Embodied AI Robots] According to the official account of "Beijing E-Town", the 2026 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing E-Town on August 19. At the "Open Cooperation" main forum, Li Quan, Member of the Working Committee and Deputy Director of the Administrative Committee of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, unveiled the "Beijing Machine Realm" — a vision for building a new society of human-robot integrated embodied intelligence. Beijing E-Town will accelerate the creation of 100 practical, deployable specialized robot products and promote their application in 1,000 niche fields; it will accelerate the large-scale production of 100,000-unit-level embodied AI robots and form a production capacity for 1 million sets of key core parts. (From Wallstreetcn APP) The PBOC's 7-day reverse repo operation volume was zero for the eighth consecutive working day. Today, 327.4 billion yuan of reverse repo matured. US Dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.83. Fed meeting minutes showed that several officials leaned towards a rate hike last month, while many indicated that further monetary policy tightening would be necessary if inflation failed to decline. However, uncertainty still heavily influenced Fed officials' judgments at the July meeting. The minutes said: "Regarding the outlook for monetary policy, participants reiterated that their interpretation of incoming data would be a key component of policy discussions." The FOMC decided by a 9-to-3 vote in July to maintain the benchmark rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate hike. Two other regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights in July — Schmid and Musalem — have since indicated they would have supported a rate hike at that meeting if they had a vote. Most policy discussions at the July meeting revolved around differing assessments of the future inflation trajectory. The minutes stated: "Most participants expected inflation to gradually pull back over the remainder of the year as the effects of tariffs and the previous increase in energy prices faded, but many noted that the possibility of inflation persisting at elevated levels remained." According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady through September is 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 32.7%. Through October, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady is 58.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 4.3%. Four US Senate Democrats led by Chris Van Hollen have asked Fed Chairman Warsh to publicly disclose his conversations with Trump, following a Wall Street Journal report that the two have spoken on multiple occasions despite such calls not appearing on Warsh's calendar. The senators said that failure to disclose the contact could create the mistaken impression that the White House is directing monetary policymaking. When questioned by Van Hollen last month, Warsh did not directly address the matter. The senators are demanding that Warsh confirm in writing whether he has had any communications with Trump since being sworn in, or amend his calendar to disclose the calls. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett played down the calls in early August, stating that Trump had not pressured Warsh on interest rate decisions; Trump himself has said he had only one brief conversation with Warsh. In contrast, former Fed Chairman Powell documented his calls with Trump and disclosed several in-person meetings. The US Treasury Department announced it is at least doubling the size of its liquidity support buyback operations for long-dated nominal coupon securities, covering both the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year maturity ranges. The maximum size per operation is currently $2 billion, and future operations will be increased to at least $4 billion each. The change is effective September 9, 2026, and will be implemented for the remainder of the current quarterly refunding cycle (through November 4, 2026). The Treasury will provide more information on future buyback sizes at its next quarterly refunding meeting, scheduled for November 4, 2026. This increase in buyback operation size reflects the Treasury's intent to provide greater liquidity support for the long-dated nominal Treasury market. Details of the updated temporary Treasury buyback schedule will be released later. US Treasury Secretary Bessent has, through a series of unconventional operations this year, become one of the most interventionist US Treasury chiefs in decades regarding financial markets, aiming to curb rising US borrowing costs. This week, the US Treasury announced plans to "at least double" the size of planned buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Previously, Treasury had signaled the potential for reduced long-term debt issuance. On July 31, Bessent directed the first US government purchase of Japanese yen in 30 years. Former Treasury official Mark Sobel characterized Bessent as "absolutely an activist interventionist," a style reminiscent of his hedge fund background. Sobel noted that Bessent and senior administration officials are clearly concerned about rising long-term US Treasury yields. Driven by inflation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the fiscal deficit, 10-year US Treasury yields have continued to rise, pushing up mortgage rates and dragging on economic growth. Some analysts noted that while Bessent is attempting to stabilize markets through yield curve intervention, they warn that such a strategy is unlikely to succeed in the long run without addressing high debt and fiscal deficits. (Jinshi Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Australia's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July PPI month-on-month rate, Switzerland's July trade balance, the UK's August CBI industrial order difference, US initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US July Conference Board leading index month-on-month rate, China's total installed power generation capacity as of July this year, and its year-on-year growth rate. Additionally, attention should be paid to the Ministry of Commerce's first regular press conference for August; an interview of 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem on CNBC; and Alibaba's earnings release. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both exchanges moved sideways. WTI crude rose 0.05%, and Brent crude rose 0.23%. Oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range amid a stalemate in US-Iran negotiations. According to CCTV News: on August 19 local time, US President Trump stated on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran failed to seize an opportunity for a deal, and he therefore announced the "toughest economic actions ever imposed on any country" against Iran, calling it an "economic war and economic isolation" of unprecedented scale. Trump stated the US is building a record amount of oil pipelines to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. He said the strait's importance will decline as more alternative supply routes emerge and US control over the waterway strengthens. Trump also remarked that while some had predicted oil prices could spike to $350, current prices remain around $84 to $85 a barrel. Two US officials told Axios that the US military has quietly established a shipping lane for vessels entering and exiting the Strait of Hormuz, which transports millions of barrels of oil daily. While the broader war remains a stalemate, this operation has achieved notable results. The operation has been ongoing for several weeks, and 15 to 20 oil tankers have now used the southern passage along the coast of Oman to transit the strait. Officials said about 10 million barrels of oil per day are being shipped out via the strait into global energy markets, though this figure is roughly half the pre-war transit volume. This US-led operation is mitigating one of the most severe consequences of the war: oil supply disruptions that had driven a significant rise in crude prices. Officials indicated that while the volume of oil currently moving through the strait remains below pre-war levels, it is already having a tangible impact on global oil supplies. (Jinshi Data) Separately, Venezuelan Oil Minister Paola Eñau told investors in Houston that Venezuela hopes to sign production-sharing contracts and boost output in the country holding the world's largest crude oil reserves. Eñau said there are currently 916 blocks available for exploration and production in Venezuela. While Venezuela is known for heavy crude, she noted investment opportunities also exist in light and medium crude, as well as natural gas. "We need these agreements to enter these new blocks," she said. "There's a whole world waiting to be explored." This week, Venezuela signed agreements with oilfield services giant Schlumberger (SLB.N) and independent oil producer Hunt Oil, but the country wants to attract more private investment to revive output, which has been in steady decline for the past two decades. Eñau stated that about 140 companies attended the meeting, and the scale of potential investors present demonstrates the level of market interest in investing in Venezuela. Spot Market Summary: ► ► ► Other base metals spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view~

SMM Nickel, August 20: Macro and market news: (1) The US Treasury announced the expansion of the scale of long-term nominal Treasury bond buybacks. It will at least double the maximum size of a single liquidity support buyback operation for longer-dated nominal coupon Treasury bonds, to at least $4 billion, effective September 9, 2026. (2) Following the US Treasury's surprise announcement of increased scale of long-term Treasury bond buybacks, the Treasury market rebounded, pushing long-term yields significantly lower. The US dollar index fell as much as 0.85% intraday, its biggest drop in three weeks, and hit its lowest level since mid-May. Spot market: On August 20, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 130,250 yuan/mt, up 2,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was 0-500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged in the night session and consolidated at highs in the morning session, reporting 129,560 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 1.19%. Boosted by the US Treasury's expansion of bond buybacks and a weaker US dollar, both LME nickel and SHFE nickel surged, with SHFE nickel reclaiming the 130,000 yuan/mt level. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a range of 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Commentary: Silver Price Breaks Out Strongly Amid US Debt Buyback and Dollar Weakness] SMM, August 20: The expansion of US debt buyback operations drove yields lower, with the dollar posting its biggest drop in three weeks. Combined with heightened geopolitical risks, silver prices broke out to the upside. The spot market saw weak demand, with transactions concentrated at discounts, causing spot silver to struggle to catch up.

SMM August 20: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,890.5/mt, dipped to $13,875/mt in the early session, then saw its price center shift higher to test $14,058/mt before finally settling at $14,051.5/mt, up 0.64%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, down 8,415 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,020 yuan/mt, hit a high of 107,340 yuan/mt in the early session, then saw its price center shift lower and hit bottom at 107,010 yuan/mt before finally consolidating narrowly to settle at 107,230 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest stood at 171,000 lots, down 4,636 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. On the macro front, the US Treasury Department announced it will at least double the size of its long-term bond repurchase operations, and the news pushed the US dollar lower, offering support to copper prices. However, LME inventories continued to rise, still capping the upside for copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, warrant cargoes were released into the market, keeping spot supply ample. On the demand side, the pullback in copper prices fueled restocking demand from downstream enterprises. Overall, copper prices today are expected to show a narrow and subdued consolidation pattern.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,890.5/mt, dipped to $13,875/mt in early trading, then its center moved up to a high of $14,058/mt, and finally closed at $14,051.5/mt, up 0.64%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, a decrease of 8,415 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,020 yuan/mt, quickly hit a high of 107,340 yuan/mt in early trading, then its center declined to a low of 107,010 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 107,230 yuan/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots and open interest stood at 171,000 lots, a decrease of 4,636 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted lower throughout the session on August 19. It opened at around $1,888/mt, moved sideways in a narrow $1,880-1,890/mt range early in the session, then gradually declined, hitting an intraday low of $1,871.0/mt. It saw a slight rebound near the close and settled at $1,886.0/mt, down $2.0/mt or 0.11% from the prior trading day. The trading range for the day was $1,871.0-1,891.5/mt, with a range of $20.5/mt. Trading volume was 6,780 lots. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract fell initially but then rose in the night session. After opening, it quickly dipped to 15,870 yuan/mt, then rebounded in choppy trade, touching a session high of 15,975 yuan/mt. It closed around 15,970 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.19% from the prior session’s settlement price. Night session volume was 23,831 lots, and open interest rose 1,506 lots to 81,480 lots from the prior day. Macro: On the international front, Middle East tensions escalated further, with Trump announcing the harshest ever economic sanctions on Iran, calling them “unprecedented economic war and isolation.” Fed minutes showed growing hawkishness, with most officials still expecting inflation to gradually decline but acknowledging persistent upside risks. US federal government debt topped $40 trillion. Driven by a sharp drop in the US dollar index and safe-haven demand, spot gold rose above $4,500 to a new high since June, while silver surged over 5%. The three major US stock indices closed slightly higher, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.5%. Trump suspended the 50% tariff on Canada for three days, and the US-Canada trade deal plans to halve steel and aluminum tariffs to 25%. On the domestic front, the “15th Five-Year Plan” for Universal Medical Security was released. The NDRC held a meeting on the “Six Networks” major project coordination mechanism to improve infrastructure collaboration. The China Gold Association issued a stern statement, saying that China’s gold industry chain is complete and has sufficient resilience to withstand external risks. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to consolidate at highs. SMM 1# lead price rose 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers sold as prices moved, with supply of circulating cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai increasing slightly. Quotations from mainstream producing areas were at discounts of 20 to premiums of 50 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. The north-south market divergence was notable. Smelters in the north saw falling inventory and firm quotations, with spot discounts narrowing and turning into premiums. Downstream purchases in south China were scattered and lacking persistence, with discount-based deals dominating and thin trading. Secondary lead smelters sold as prices moved, but supply of circulating cargoes was limited. Secondary refined lead quotations were at discounts of 100 to 0 yuan/mt to the SMM 1# lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed moderate enquiry enthusiasm, making just-in-time procurement only, and spot market trading was weak. Inventory: As of August 18, LME lead inventory stood at 418,575 mt, an increase of 9,585 mt from the previous trading day; SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory totaled 65,490 mt, down 74 mt from the previous trading day. Lead price forecast for today: Yesterday, LME lead inventory surged by 9,585 mt to 418,600 mt, with high overseas visible inventory weighing on LME; in China's spot market, suppliers of primary lead and secondary lead sold at prevailing market prices, but with a clear north-south divergence in trading, and supply of secondary lead in the market was limited; recently, downstream lead-acid battery consumption has improved, but lead ingot procurement demand remained mainly just-in-time. Overall, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating at highs in the near term.

SMM, August 20: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.23%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.23%. SHFE lead gained 0.19%. SHFE zinc lost 0.16%, SHFE tin rose 0.92%. SHFE nickel climbed 1.94%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.34%, and foundry aluminum main contract gained 0.37%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose 0.84%, iron ore fell 1.05%, and rebar was flat at 3,028 yuan/mt. Hot-rolled coil edged down 0.03%. In the coking coal and coke sector, the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.57%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 1.51%. Overnight in the overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper and LME aluminum both gained 0.64%. LME lead dipped 0.11%. LME zinc added 0.51%. LME tin rose 0.54%, and LME nickel surged 2.03%. Overnight in the precious metals sector : COMEX gold jumped 3.62% to settle at $4,580.7/oz, while COMEX silver surged 4.83%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 2.13%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.58%. Overnight closing prices as of 7:22 AM, August 20: Macro Front China: [Three Departments Jointly Issue Guidance Catalog to Further Improve National Carbon Emission Measurement Technology System] The State Administration for Market Regulation, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently jointly issued the "Guidance Catalog for Carbon Emission Measurement Capacity Building (2026 Edition)." As an updated version of the 2024 edition, the 2026 catalog further refines and improves the national carbon emission measurement technology system, providing clear measurement guidelines for the development of China's carbon market. Compared with the 2024 edition, the 2026 catalog has achieved comprehensive expansion and systematic optimization, with an expanded technical coverage scope and a significantly more complete standards and specifications system. Among them, key measurement parameters increased from 39 to 58, detection standard methods expanded from 82 to 169, measurement instruments and equipment grew from 108 to 229, national measurement technical specifications increased from 85 to 156, and public social measurement standards expanded from 55 to 115. (CCTV News) [Shanghai Publishes the 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a "Digital Shanghai"] The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a 'Digital Shanghai'." The plan proposes that by 2030, the construction of "Digital Shanghai" will achieve leapfrog development, with significant outcomes highlighted in "internationalized connectivity, data value realization, and intelligent application." It will empower economic and social development and enhance governance capacity, promote deep transformation of production methods and revolutionary leap in productivity, and ultimately build a fully established benchmark digital city with regional driving force and broad-area influence. The city’s digital base is leading in capability, the blockchain development system is advancing, infrastructure is fully consolidated, digitalization in shipping and trade is accelerating breakthroughs, applications cover all industry sectors, and new-type infrastructure such as information and communication networks, computing power, and spatial intelligence has seen significantly enhanced effectiveness. International data cooperation is actively gaining momentum, cross-border data infrastructure is secure and convenient, and digital service platforms are diverse and rich. New-quality development momentum is driven by digital intelligence, innovation in data development and utilization is deepening, and the integration of the digital and real economies continues to deepen. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Home Price Index Rises for Five Consecutive Months, Market Transactions Remain Active] According to the latest data on the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in July, the MoM index for new home sales prices in Guangzhou was 100.1, and that for pre-owned homes was 100.4. The MoM indices for both new and pre-owned home prices have risen for five consecutive months, further consolidating the market’s stabilization and recovery trend. Against the backdrop of rebounding home prices, market transactions remained active. As the effects of policies such as raising housing provident fund loan limits, providing special subsidies for “sell old, buy new” transactions, and state-owned enterprises purchasing pre-owned homes continue to be released, market activity has recently stayed at a high level. Since July, the YoY growth in the online contract-signed floor area of new commercial housing citywide has remained positive. From July 1 to 31, the online contract-signed floor area of new commercial housing in the city rose 5.8% YoY, including a 9% YoY increase for new residential housing. In the first half of August (August 1–15), the online contract-signed floor area of new commercial housing grew 15% YoY. (Guangzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau) On the dollar front: The US dollar index plunged 0.86% overnight to 98.79. The US Treasury unexpectedly announced it will at least double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks, sending the 30-year Treasury yield down more than 9 basis points in a single day, its biggest decline since October, and the dollar index broke below the 99 mark to hit a three-month low. Goldman Sachs forex trader Shah Praneet believes the expansion has more signaling significance than actual effect for the dollar; the Treasury is demonstrating its imagination to cap the long end, with the dollar becoming the pressure-release valve in the process. (Wall Street Insights) The US Treasury issued a notice stating that it is at least doubling the size of the liquidity support buyback operations for long-term nominal coupon securities, covering the 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year maturity ranges. Currently, the maximum size per operation is $2 billion, and it will be raised to at least $4 billion going forward. The adjustment will take effect on September 9, 2026, and will be implemented during the remainder of the current refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026). The Treasury will provide more information on future buyback sizes at the next quarterly refunding meeting scheduled for November 4, 2026. The expansion of the repurchase operation scale reflects the Treasury's desire to provide stronger liquidity support to the long-term nominal Treasury bond market. The Treasury will announce the updated temporary Treasury bond repurchase arrangement later. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed meeting minutes showed that several officials leaned toward a rate hike last month, while many indicated that further tightening of monetary policy would be necessary if inflation failed to decline. However, at the July meeting, uncertainty still heavily influenced US Fed officials' judgments. The minutes stated: "Regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants reiterated that their interpretation of incoming data would be a key component of policy discussions." The FOMC decided in July with a 9 to 3 vote to maintain the benchmark interest rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike. Two other regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights in July — Schmid and Musalem — subsequently indicated that they would have supported a rate hike at that meeting if they had had voting rights. Most of the policy discussion at the July meeting centered on differing judgments about future inflation trends. The minutes said: "Most participants expected inflation to gradually pull back over the remainder of the year as the effects of tariffs and previous energy price increases faded, but many noted that the possibility of persistently elevated inflation remained." Additionally, the Fed meeting minutes showed that Fed Chairman Warsh proposed an idea: reducing the number of policy meetings per year for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) from eight to six. The minutes stated: "The Chairman noted that scheduling six meetings per year, approximately every two months, would allow for more information to accumulate between meetings compared to the current arrangement, and would also provide more time for policymakers and US Fed staff to study and consider strategic issues in monetary policy." Subsequently, Warsh solicited opinions from committee members on this idea. The minutes clearly stated that the number of meetings would not be adjusted this year. A reduction in the number of policy meetings would mean a significant change in how the US Fed operates. According to CME "FedWatch": the probabilities for September are unchanged (67.3%) and a cumulative 25bp hike (32.7%); for October, unchanged (58.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (37.3%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (4.3%). (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies: Deutsche Bank analyst Raja Sanjay noted in a report that UK inflation could rise further. In July, the inflation rate jumped to 2.9% from 2.6% in the previous month. He said: "The Bank of England's core services indicators were all revised up, highlighting some unease about the momentum of price increases." He added that due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, energy inflation also remained volatile. However, Raja noted that food price inflation had fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2021, and the pace of service price increases had also dropped to the lowest point in three months. Yet this may be only a temporary relief. He said: "There is good reason to believe that the direction of food prices in 2027 is likely to be only one way — up." (Jinshi Data APP) On the macro front: Today, data will be released including China's July Swift RMB share in global payments, China's one-year loan prime rate as of August 20, Australia's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July PPI month-on-month rate, Switzerland's July trade balance, UK's August CBI industrial orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, US August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July Conference Board leading index month-on-month rate, China's July year-to-date installed power generation capacity, and the year-to-date annual growth rate of China's installed power generation capacity. Additionally, attention should be paid to: the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the Ministry of Commerce holding its first regular press briefing in August; FOMC voter for 2028 and St. Louis Fed President Musalem giving an interview to CNBC; and Alibaba releasing its financial results. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended gains from the previous three trading sessions, with WTI up 0.4% and Brent up 0.69%. Oil prices crept higher amid escalating conflict between the UAE and Iran. US EIA data intensified supply concerns, as refinery operating rates rose to the highest since September 2019, led by the Gulf Coast, distillate inventories fell, Cushing crude oil inventories neared tank bottoms, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to a 43-year low. Global Risk Management company's chief analyst Rasmussen Arne said that the escalation between the UAE and Iran, combined with the market pricing in a scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, provided sustained support for oil product prices. (Wall Street CN） US President Trump stated, “I gave Iran more opportunities to reach a deal than anyone else. Regrettably, they missed this opportunity. Therefore, today, I am announcing the toughest economic sanctions ever imposed on Iran, which will be an unprecedented economic war and isolation.”(Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, two US officials told Axios that the US military has quietly established a shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz for entering and exiting the strait, handling millions of barrels of oil daily. Although the broader war remains deadlocked, this operation has achieved notable results. The operation has been ongoing for several weeks, and currently, 15 to 20 tankers have passed through the southern lane along the coast of Oman to enter and exit the Strait of Hormuz. Officials say about 10 million barrels of oil are shipped through the strait daily and enter the global energy market, but this figure is roughly half of the pre-war volume. This US-led operation is mitigating one of the most severe impacts of the war: disruptions in oil supply, which have driven crude oil prices sharply higher. Officials indicate that although the volume of oil shipped through the strait remains below pre-war levels, it has already had a clear impact on global oil supply.(Jin10 Data APP)

19 August, 2026 Highlights International and domestic gold prices 1 gained ground in August, partially reversing June’s sharp correction after a period of stability in July Jewellery demand reportedly strengthened: consumers responded to lower and more stable prices, while retailers and manufacturers replenished inventories ahead of the festive season Investment demand remained steady; gold ETFs continue to attract inflows, bar and coin demand held up, albeit softer than the heightened levels seen earlier in the year Activity in the futures market picked up in July, lifting trading volumes and turnover Gold imports rebounded in July, signalling firmer demand conditions. Looking ahead Demand conditions are improving, raising expectations of a stronger festive season. While elevated prices may continue to influence jewellery purchases, investment demand remains supportive. Correction gives way to recovery Following a sharp price correction in June, gold prices stabilised during July before recovering in early August, reaching their highest levels in over two months. International gold price (LBMA Gold PM) rose 9% in the first two weeks of August to US$4,391/oz, while domestic prices gained nearly 7% to INR151,744/10g. 2 The appreciation of the INR against the US dollar partially offset the rise in the international price, limiting gains in domestic prices. Shifting monetary policy expectations, a weaker US dollar, and renewed inflows into gold ETFs supported gold prices, contributing to the recent recovery in the gold market. Chart 1: Gold regains ground Month-end LBMA Gold Price PM and MCX spot gold price changes and movement* *As of 14 August, 2026. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Domestic gold prices remain below import parity, 3 indicating local supply availability. Market feedback suggests that the exchange of old gold for new jewellery has increased market supply and kept prices at a discount to the landed cost. While discounts narrowed meaningfully, from around US$100/oz in mid-May and early June, to about US$45/oz in mid-August, they remained above July’s average US$34/oz. Chart 2: Improving market balance trims discounts NCDEX gold premium/discount relative to the official domestic price* *As of 14 August 2026. Source: NCDEX, World Gold Council Buyers return Jewellery demand has reportedly strengthened, as consumers viewed recent price action as a buying opportunity. Industry feedback suggests that deferred purchases returned to the market, resulting in higher footfall and a recovery in demand beyond essential wedding-related purchases. Manufacturers have reportedly begun receiving higher order flows, and inventory replenishment by jewellers has picked up ahead of the festive season, suggesting growing confidence in seasonal demand. Old gold exchange remains elevated and continues to play an important role in facilitating purchases. Physical investment demand, while moderating from earlier highs, remained supportive during the period of price correction. Lower prices continued to attract investors seeking strategic exposure to gold, while the recent rebound appears to have revived interest. Continued inflows into gold ETFs Indian gold ETFs continued to attract investor interest in July, albeit at a slower pace than in June. As per data from the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI), net inflows totalled INR15.6bn (US$163mn) during the month, 55% lower m/m, while holdings increased by 1t to 120t, in line with our initial estimate . Total assets under management (AUM) rose 2% m/m to INR1,733bn(US$18.1bn). And positive flows are continuing; the first two weeks of August saw an estimated net inflow of INR11.79bn(US$124mn). Investor participation also grew; a further 57k new folios (accounts) were added during July, taking the total number of accounts to 12.53mn. Chart 3: Steady ETF demand Gold ETF flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes* *As of end July 2026. Source: AMFI, ICRA Analytics, CMIE, World Gold Council Futures activity picks up Following a softer April-June period, gold futures trading picked up in July, indicating greater trader participation and hedging activity as gold prices stabilised and began to recover. Average daily trading volumes on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX India) rose to 14.9t, up from an average 13.5t over the previous three months, while average daily turnover increased 9% m/m to INR214bn(US$2.2bn). Despite the improvement, activity remained below the earlier elevated levels: average daily trading volumes were 59% lower than January’s peak and 8% below July 2025 levels. Turnover, however, was 35% higher y/y, reflecting the impact of higher gold prices on traded value. Chart 4: Futures trading edges higher Gold futures trading on MCX; volume and turnover Source: MCX India, World Gold Council Imports rebound Gold imports rebounded in July after two consecutive months of weakness, suggesting an improvement in demand and inventory replenishment by manufacturers and retailers ahead of the festive season. Import value rose to US$4.16bn, more than double June’s US$1.97bn, while import volumes are estimated to have increased to 40-45t, up from 20t in June. While recycled gold – primarily from the exchange of old gold jewellery for new – continues to supplement supply, the recovery in imports points to stronger physical demand compared with recent months. Despite the increase, gold's share of total merchandise imports remained relatively modest at 5%, compared with the average 11% during January-March. Chart 5: Imports rise Monthly gold imports in tonnes and US$bn* *Includes World Gold Council estimates. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CMIE, World Gold Council Footnotes 1 LBMA Gold Price PM and MCX spot gold price as of 14 August 2026. 2 LBMA Gold Price PM and MCX spot gold price as of 14 August 2026. 3 Import parity or landed price is the international gold price (LBMA Gold Price AM) adjusted for import tax. Source： https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/india-gold-market-update-recovery-taking-shape

SMM News on August 19: Metal markets: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.94%. SHFE lead rose 0.19%. SHFE zinc fell 1.44%. SHFE tin fell 1.35%. SHFE nickel fell 0.58%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.48%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.26%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.42%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.4%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.85%, rebar rose 0.27%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. Stainless steel edged up. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.18%, the most-traded coke contract rose 2.17%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:42 AM, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.15%, LME aluminum and LME zinc both rose 0.03%. LME lead fell 0.05%. LME tin fell 0.41%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. Precious metals, as of 11:42 AM, COMEX gold fell 0.23%, COMEX silver fell 1.35%. On the domestic precious metals front: SHFE gold fell 1.02%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 4.04%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.44%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.82%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract fell 2.17% to 1,717 points. As of 11:42 AM on August 19, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Global bond yields collectively rose, with US Treasury yields hitting multi-year highs, putting precious metals under pressure and triggering a pullback. The spot market saw discount widening, with transactions concentrated at slight discounts, while demand remained cautious... Macro front China: [Shanghai: Focusing on innovation in key areas such as computing power to form an AI pioneer industry cluster with Zhangjiang Core Park as the demonstration leader] The Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Commission issued the "Shanghai Zhangjiang High-Tech Industrial Development Zone Development 15th Five-Year Plan". It proposes to focus on innovation in key areas such as computing power, large models, corpora data, scientific intelligence, and applications, to form an AI pioneer industry cluster with Zhangjiang Core Park, Xuhui Park, Caohejing Park, etc. as demonstration leaders. It aims to enhance intelligent computing capabilities, break through disruptive chip architectures such as optical computing and brain-inspired computing, build an autonomous computing power system integrating supercomputing and intelligent computing with cloud-edge-device collaboration, and construct the Pujiang Public Computing Service Platform. Efforts will be made to advance next-generation large models, develop large models including brain-inspired computing, build Modu Space and Zhangjiang AI Innovation Town, and support the adaptation of multimodal large models to domestic computing power and ecosystem integration. (Jin10 Data APP) [The PBOC’s reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 142.3 billion yuan on the day.] The PBOC did not conduct reverse repo operations today, while it conducted 327.4 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos. As 469.7 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 142.3 billion yuan was realized on the day. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 99.59. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 65%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35%. For October, the probabilities are unchanged (51.4%), a cumulative 25bp hike (41.3%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (7.4%). Bond traders are once again adjusting their strategies. After a series of data indicated that the Fed is almost certain not to hike rates for the remainder of this year, options market bets are trying to hedge against the risk of the Fed pivoting to rate cuts in 2027. This dovish positioning contrasts with the recent trend in the US Treasury market: long-term bond yields have climbed to multi-year highs, as a Fed on hold would keep inflation above target for a longer period. Meanwhile, options traders, whose positions are closely tied to the Fed’s policy path, are shifting their focus to signs of US economic weakness, which they believe could trigger a market reversal. This shift began to emerge last week, when data showed that inflation and consumer demand slowed in July, cooling market expectations for a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting. Option market participants then began to adjust their positions, reducing the magnitude of future rate hikes priced into the swaps market. Some options are even considering hedging against the risk of possible rate cuts by mid-next year. The Bank of America’s August Global Fund Manager Survey showed that a majority expected Fed Chairman Warsh to adopt a neutral stance at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. Among respondents, 31% expected him to deliver ‘hawkish’ remarks, while only 7% expected ‘dovish’ remarks. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: The UK July CPI month-on-month rate, the UK July retail price index month-on-month rate, the Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone July final CPI year-on-year rate, and the Eurozone July final CPI month-on-month rate, among others, are scheduled for release today. Additionally, watch: European Central Bank President Lagarde attends the "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; Kuaishou holds its earnings call. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets rose, with US oil up 0.79% and Brent oil up 0.68%. Crude oil prices rose, as the US and Iran reached an impasse over control of the Strait of Hormuz. On the 18th local time, Iranian Majlis Speaker Qalibaf stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not open until the US lifts the freeze on Iranian assets, removes oil sanctions, ceases military threats and operations on all fronts, and meets other conditions of the memorandum of understanding. Qalibaf noted that the opportunities brought by the memorandum of understanding in lifting blockades and ceasefires could help enhance Iran's economic resilience and rebuild its defense capabilities. He also emphasized that Iran is prepared to deliver heavier blows in response to any transgressions by hostile forces. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, Venezuelan Oil Minister Paula Henao stated on Tuesday local time that oil-related contracts were signed with US oilfield services giant Schlumberger (SLB) and independent producer Hunt Oil Company, respectively, to attract investment and boost crude oil production. This signing came as Caracas and Washington pushed to accelerate investment in Venezuela's vast but underdeveloped oil reserves. Politico previously reported that multiple US independent oil producers are expected to sign production contracts with Venezuela's state-run PDVSA in the coming days. Henao said that Venezuela signed a hydrocarbon production participation agreement related to the development and production increase of two oil fields, but did not disclose specific details on expected investment amounts or additional production volumes. She said that the Venezuelan government also signed a framework agreement with SLB to provide comprehensive reservoir research services nationwide in Venezuela. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted higher throughout the day on August 18, opening at $1885.5/mt. It moved sideways in a range of $1883-1890/mt during Asian hours, briefly surged toward the end of European hours to touch a high of $1896.5/mt, then subsequently pulled back, ultimately closing at $1888.0/mt, up $3.0/mt or 0.16% from the previous trading session. The daily trading range was $1883.0-1896.5/mt, with a swing of $13.5/mt. The daily candlestick was a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. Trading volume was 4,729 lots, open interest was 178,938 lots, and intraday open interest fell sharply by 5,863 lots. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract night session opened at 15,965 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly surged to a high of 16,025 yuan/mt, subsequently consolidated lower to dip to 15,905 yuan/mt, then rebounded to trade around 15,955 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.31% from the previous session’s closing price. Night session trading volume was 33,162 lots, open interest was 79,286 lots, down 892 lots from the previous session. On the macro front: The US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, Trump said there were no negotiations with Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remained fully effective, the UAE suspended trade with Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continued to intensify. The US dollar index traded sideways above 99 for nearly two weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025. On the domestic front, a super-strong El Niño event could form this winter, likely the strongest on record, potentially disrupting power supply and smelter operations. The A-share market was mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.56%, as combined turnover on the two exchanges reached 2.4 trillion yuan. Housing provident fund policy adjustments now allow withdrawals for home decoration and property fee payments, with no income thresholds for rental withdrawals, benefiting post-cyclical real estate consumption. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead pulled back slightly, continuing to consolidate at highs. The SMM 1# lead price fell 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers' selling sentiment became more divided, with some holding firm on quotes or suspending sales due to limited inventory, while others sold at prevailing prices. Quotations from major producing regions were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Secondary lead smelters showed only modest selling interest, tradable material in the market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Downstream enterprises had limited restocking needs, and inquiry interest declined from yesterday, leaving spot market trade somewhat sluggish. Although lead-acid battery consumption relatively improved, demand for lead ingot purchases remained limited. Inventory: As of August 18, LME lead inventory was 409,000 mt, down 1,975 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 65,564 mt, down 325 mt from the previous week. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, inquiry activity declined compared to the previous day, and spot market trading was sluggish; lead-acid battery consumption improved somewhat, but procurement demand for lead ingots remained limited, providing insufficient upward momentum for lead prices. Supply side, suppliers showed divergent attitudes toward shipments: some maintained firm offers or suspended shipments due to limited supply, while others sold at market prices; secondary lead smelters had moderate enthusiasm for shipments, leading to limited circulating sources in the market; coupled with declines in both LME and domestic lead inventories, this provided some support for prices. Overall, lead prices maintained a fluctuating trend.