[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations of Supply Tightening Boost Lead Prices, but Caution Needed on Resumption of Secondary Lead Production] China's "Rising Consumption, Stable Production, Soft Investment" in May: Retail sales of consumer goods up 6.4% YoY, the highest growth rate since December 2023. Yesterday was the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2506 contract, and the transfer of lead ingot inventory due to delivery led to a continued increase in social inventory of lead ingots...

SMM News on June 14: Metal Market: As of the overnight close, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets generally declined, with only LME tin, SHFE aluminum, and SHFE tin rising. LME tin rose 0.42%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.2%, and SHFE tin rose 0.51%. The rest of the metals fell, with LME copper down 0.56%, LME aluminum down 0.58%, and LME zinc down 0.61%. The declines in other metals were relatively minor. The main alumina contract fell 0.73%, while the main aluminum casting contract rose 0.31%. The ferrous metals series generally rose, with rebar up 0.64% and HRC up 0.81%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 1.81% and coke rose 0.52%. In precious metals, as of the overnight close, COMEX gold rose 1.48%, recording a three-day winning streak and hitting a new high since April 22, with a weekly gain of 3.17%. COMEX silver rose 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 0.64%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.64%, with a weekly gain of 1.72%, and SHFE silver rose 0.24%, with a weekly gain of 0.42%. As of 9:13 a.m. on June 14, Friday's overnight market close 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspects: [PBOC: Social financing increased by 18.63 trillion yuan, new loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan from January to May, M2 grew 7.9% YoY in May] According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan from January to May, compared to 16.3429 trillion yuan from January to April. New RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan from January to May, compared to 10.0597 trillion yuan from January to April. At the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months was 306.4 billion yuan. 》Click to view details The PBOC announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 16, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 400 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed-quantity, interest-rate tenders with multiple-price awards, with a term of six months (182 days). US Dollar Aspects: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.12, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. Investors largely ignored data showing that US consumer confidence rebounded in June for the first time in six months. Data released by the University of Michigan's consumer survey on Friday showed that the consumer sentiment index jumped to 60.5 this month, higher than market expectations. Next week, the US Fed's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections. Other currencies: In afternoon trading, the US dollar rose 0.3% against the Japanese yen to 143.88 yen and 0.1% against the Swiss franc to 0.8110 francs. The US dollar fell against the Swiss franc for the second consecutive week. The euro fell 0.4% against the US dollar to $1.1539. Data releases: Next week, China will release data including the operation scale of the medium-term lending facility (MLF) on June 16, the winning bid rate of the MLF on June 16, the year-to-date annual rate of urban fixed asset investment in May, the year-to-date annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in May, the monthly annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in May, the annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May, the year-to-date annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May, the monthly rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May, the monthly annual rate of total electricity consumption in May, the monthly total electricity consumption in May (irregularly from the 15th to the 20th), the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) in June, the five-year loan prime rate (LPR) in June, etc. The US will release data including the upper and lower limits of the target federal funds rate in June, the New York Fed manufacturing index in June, the New York Fed manufacturing index for the next six months' expectations in June, the monthly import price index in May, the annual rate of the import price index in May, the monthly rate of retail sales in May, the monthly rate of core retail sales in May, the annual rate of retail sales in May, the monthly rate of the retail sales control group associated with GDP in May (seasonally adjusted), the monthly rate of industrial output in May, the capacity utilisation rate in May, the monthly rate of manufacturing output in May, the manufacturing capacity utilisation rate in May, the annual rate of industrial output in May (seasonally adjusted), the initial annualized total of building permits in May, the initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in June, etc. The eurozone will release data including the total reserve assets in May, the ZEW economic sentiment index in June, the final unadjusted annual rate of core harmonized CPI in May, and the initial consumer confidence index in June. Japan will release data including the Bank of Japan's policy benchmark interest rate on June 17 (%)(irregularly on June 17), the unadjusted merchandise trade balance in May, the seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance in May, the unadjusted merchandise exports in May, and the annual rate of the nationwide core CPI in May. The UK will release data including the annual rate of core CPI in May, the annual rate of the retail price index in May, the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate in June, the Gfk consumer confidence index in June, and the seasonally adjusted monthly rate of core retail sales in May. Australia will release data including the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 15, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May, and the change in employed population in May. Data such as the quarterly rate of GDP in Q1 for New Zealand (production method, seasonally adjusted), the annual rate of GDP in Q1 for New Zealand (production method, seasonally adjusted), the monthly rate of core retail sales in April for Canada, the ZEW economic sentiment index in June for Germany, and the Bank of Switzerland's policy interest rate in June will also be released. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. On June 17, China has 182 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) maturing. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Fed will announce the interest rate decision and the Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy. US President Trump will visit Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. The Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision. Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will hold a press conference on monetary policy, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, and Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, will deliver a speech. Crude oil market: Oil prices in both markets surged overnight, with US crude oil rising 7.55%, hitting a high of $77.62 per barrel during the session, a new high since January 20, and Brent crude oil rising 8.39%, reaching a high of $78.5 per barrel during the session, a new high since January 23. The escalation of regional tensions has sparked investor concerns about potential widespread disruptions to oil exports in the Middle East. Both benchmark crude oils recorded their largest intraday fluctuations since the energy price surge triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The Iraqi National News Agency stated that Iraq has sufficient strategic reserves of key materials to prepare for the escalation of the situation in the region. The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said that oil refining and storage facilities were undamaged and continued to operate. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently has a daily production of about 3.3 million barrels, with oil and fuel exports exceeding 2 million barrels per day. According to analysts and OPEC observers, the spare capacity of OPEC and its allies (including Russia) to produce more oil to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. Analysts and OPEC observers said that the rapid surge in oil prices is partly due to the fact that the spare capacity of OPEC and its allies to increase production to offset supply disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. In other market news, US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy companies fell for the seventh consecutive week this week to the lowest level since November 2021. Data showed that as of the week ending June 13, the total number of US oil and natural gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, decreased by 4 to 555, down 35 or 6% from the same period last year. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM May 17 Report: Metal Market: Overnight, the domestic market's base metals mostly fell, with SHFE tin rising 0.48%. SHFE copper fell 0.82%, SHFE nickel dropped 0.75%, SHFE lead slightly declined 0.09%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.2%, and SHFE zinc fell 0.44%. Additionally, influenced by the news that the government of Guinea, the world's second-largest bauxite producer, had announced the revocation of 51 mining licenses, the most-traded alumina futures contract once hit the daily limit-up price of 3,149 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately closing up 6.73% at 3,141 yuan/mt. 》Guinea, the World's Second-Largest Bauxite Producer, Takes Strong Action, Revoking 51 Mining Licenses at Once Overnight, the ferrous metals series all fell, with iron ore dropping 0.48%, stainless steel declining 0.23%, rebar falling 0.45%, and HRC decreasing 0.37%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 1.04%, and coke dropped 1.55%. In the overseas metal market overnight, LME base metals mostly declined, with LME copper falling 1.43%, LME aluminum dropping 0.18%, LME lead slightly rising, LME zinc falling 1.41%, LME tin decreasing 1.01%, and LME nickel dropping 1.23%. Overnight, in the precious metals market: COMEX gold fell 0.66%, and COMEX gold's weekly decline was 4.15%, marking its worst weekly performance since November 2024. COMEX silver fell 0.76%, and its weekly decline was 1.47%. Overnight, SHFE gold fell 0.38%, with a weekly decline of 4.61%, while SHFE silver fell 0.15%, with a weekly decline of 0.59%. As of 8:39 on May 17, overnight closing prices 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Seven Departments: Further Leverage the Role of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives and Other Business Entities to Accelerate the Construction of a Recycling System for Renewable Resources Such as Waste Home Appliances and Furniture] The General Offices of seven departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, issued a notice on "Further Leveraging the Role of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives and Other Business Entities to Accelerate the Construction of a Recycling System for Renewable Resources Such as Waste Home Appliances and Furniture." The notice proposed innovating the recycling model for renewable resources. All regions should guide various recycling enterprises to develop an "Internet +" recycling model and cultivate a batch of new-type renewable resource recycling enterprises. It encourages various business entities, including recycling enterprises of supply and marketing cooperatives, to connect with home appliance and furniture sales enterprises to carry out "trade-in + recycling" businesses, providing services such as in-home disassembly and recycling of waste home appliances and furniture, as well as delivery and installation of new products. It promotes standardized recycling enterprises to cooperate with local government agencies, enterprises, and institutions to carry out waste recycling and resource utilization businesses, and popularize the "public property warehouse" entrusted operation service model. Support supply and marketing cooperatives in developing a digital integrated service platform for renewable resources, enriching functions such as information exchange and online transactions. [CSRC: Encouraging Private Equity Funds to Participate in M&A and Restructuring of Publicly Listed Firms] The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Decision on Amending the Measures for the Administration of Major Asset Restructuring of Publicly Listed Firms, encouraging private equity funds to participate in the M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms. It implemented a "reverse linkage" between the investment period of private equity funds and the lock-up period for shares acquired through restructuring. Specifically, if the investment period of a private equity fund is 48 months or longer, the lock-up period in third-party transactions is shortened from 12 months to 6 months, and the lock-up period for shareholders other than the controlling shareholders, actual controllers, and their affiliated persons under their control in restructuring listings is shortened from 24 months to 12 months. [Maritime Silk Road Index: Tariff Cuts Lead to Increased Demand, Freight Rate Index for US West Coast Route Rises 23.2% WoW] The Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI), part of the Maritime Silk Road Index released by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange this week, closed at 1,014.6 points, up 6.5% WoW. Among the 21 routes, freight rate indices for 9 routes increased, 10 decreased, and 2 remained basically flat. Among the main ports along the "Maritime Silk Road," freight rate indices for 9 ports increased, 6 decreased, and 1 remained basically flat. Following the new Sino-US tariff agreement, transportation demand has increased, and liner companies have happily announced freight rate hikes. The freight rate index for the US East Coast route was 1,455.0 points, up 21.5% WoW; the freight rate index for the US West Coast route was 1,813.1 points, up 23.2% WoW. The freight rate index for the European route was 750.9 points, down 0.8% WoW; the freight rate index for the Eastern Mediterranean route was 951.1 points, down 0.8% WoW; and the freight rate index for the Western Mediterranean route was 1,265.7 points, down 0.4% WoW. (Financial Link) [Beijing to Issue Additional 20,000 New Energy Passenger Vehicle Quotas for Carless Households] On the basis of the targeted issuance of 40,000 new energy passenger vehicle quotas, Beijing has issued an additional 20,000 new energy passenger vehicle quotas and will announce the list of shortlisted households on May 26. It is reported that the total quota for passenger vehicles in 2025 is 160,000, including an annual quota of 100,000 and an additional issuance of 60,000 new energy quotas. All additional quotas are allocated to carless households applying for new energy quotas. On May 26, after allocating 58,400 annual family new energy passenger vehicle quotas for the year, the remaining 60,000 quotas will be allocated to carless households in descending order of their total family points. For households with the same total points, priority will be given based on the registration time of the earliest family applicant in the Beijing Passenger Vehicle Quota Allocation and Management Information System. At that time, the city will allocate 118,400 new energy passenger vehicle indicators to carless households in a one-off manner. US dollar: The US dollar index rose by 0.15% overnight, closing at 100.96. Weekly performance: The US dollar index has risen for four consecutive weeks, with a weekly gain of 0.55%. The latest round of US economic data shows that import prices rebounded in April, while consumer confidence remained sluggish in May, amid growing concerns about the impact of President Trump's trade policies. The US Department of Labor stated that after a 0.4% decline in March, US import prices rose by 0.1% last month, as the surge in capital goods costs outweighed the decline in energy prices. Economists surveyed had previously forecast a 0.4% decline in import prices, excluding tariffs. The University of Michigan's consumer survey showed that the US consumer confidence index fell to 50.8 this month from a final value of 52.2 in April, below the estimated 53.4. In addition, consumers' 12-month inflation expectations surged from 6.5% to 7.3%, the highest level since November 1981. The market expects the US Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, starting in September. Data shows that as signs of easing trade tensions emerge, the market has lowered its expectations for the US Fed's interest rate cuts this year, believing there is a 67.1% probability of at least a 25-basis-point cut at its September meeting. The previous view was that interest rate cuts might begin in July. Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that the Fed needs more data to determine the impact of tariff announcements on prices and the economy before adjusting its policies. (Wenhua Comprehensive) International credit rating agency Moody's announced on May 16 that due to the increase in the US government's debt and interest payment ratio, it has decided to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, while adjusting the outlook for the US sovereign credit rating from "negative" to "stable". Moody's stated that the US federal debt burden will rise to 134% of GDP by 2035; it is expected that the US federal government deficit will reach 9% of GDP by 2035; as the economy adjusts in response to tariffs, GDP growth may slow down. (Finance Link) Other currencies: European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the ECB will release more economic scenario assumptions for the eurozone along with its quarterly outlook report next month, in an attempt to capture the potential impacts of the current trade turmoil. Speaking at a conference organized by the US Fed, the official said that such measures are necessary under certain circumstances, citing the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as examples. Lane stated in Washington on Friday that in the near term, the continued uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies means that alternative scenarios will also be incorporated into the macroeconomic forecasts in June. (Huitong Finance) Macro Aspects: Next week, the following data will be released: China's year-to-date annual rate of urban fixed asset investment in April, China's year-to-date annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in April, China's monthly annual rate of industrial added value above designated size in April, China's annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April, China's year-to-date annual rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April, China's monthly rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in April, the Eurozone's unadjusted final annual rate of Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in April, the Eurozone's unadjusted final annual rate of core HICP in April, Australia's ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending May 18, China's one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for May, China's five-year LPR for May, Australia's cash rate for May, Canada's unadjusted annual rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April, Canada's monthly rate of Bank of Canada core CPI in April, the Eurozone's preliminary consumer confidence index for May, New Zealand's trade balance in April, Japan's unadjusted merchandise trade balance in April, the UK's annual rate of CPI in April, the UK's annual rate of Retail Price Index (RPI) in April, France's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, Germany's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, the Eurozone's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, Germany's IFO Business Climate Index for May, the UK's preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for May, the UK's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, the UK's CBI Industrial Trends Orders Balance for May, Canada's CFIB Business Barometer for May, the US's initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17, the US's continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 17, the US's preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May, the US's annualized total existing home sales in April, the UK's GfK Consumer Confidence Index for May, Japan's annual rate of nationwide CPI in April, Japan's annual rate of nationwide core CPI in April, Germany's revised quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate for Q1, Germany's revised year-on-year unadjusted quarterly GDP growth rate for Q1, the UK's monthly seasonally adjusted retail sales growth rate in April, the US's revised monthly building permits growth rate in April, Canada's monthly retail sales growth rate in March, the US's annualized total new home sales after seasonal adjustment in April, etc. In addition, next week, the following events are worth noting: the release of the Eurozone's unadjusted final annual rate of core HICP in April; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential property sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on the national economic performance; NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang attending Computex Taipei and delivering a speech to share the latest progress and breakthroughs in "AI and Accelerated Computing Technology"; US Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivering a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams delivering a speech; the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcing its interest rate decision; RBA Governor Michele Bullock holding a monetary policy press conference; the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting being held until May 22; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem delivering a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter Raphael Bostic chairing a meeting, with 2026 FOMC voter Loretta Mester and 2027 FOMC voter Mary Daly delivering keynote speeches; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin attending an event titled "Fed Listens"; the European Central Bank (ECB) releasing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; and FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams delivering a keynote speech at a seminar on monetary policy implementation. Crude Oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.28% and Brent up 1.24%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures posted gains for two consecutive weeks, rising 1.49% this week, while Brent futures extended gains for two straight weeks, up 2.22% this week. Easing trade tensions supported oil prices, but expectations of increased supply from Iran and OPEC limited the gains. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that it expects global supply to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year as OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, lift production cuts, an upward revision of 380,000 bpd from its previous forecast. A report released on Friday by Baker Hughes, a US energy services company, showed that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy firms fell for the third consecutive week this week, the first such decline since mid-April. Data showed that the total number of oil and natural gas rigs in the US fell by 2 to 576 in the week ending May 16, the lowest level since January. This brought the total number of active rigs down by 28, or 5%, YoY. During the same week, the number of active oil rigs in the US fell by 1 to 473, the lowest level since January, while the number of natural gas rigs decreased by 1 to 100, the first decline since early April. In addition, it is worth noting next week: The June NYMEX New York crude oil futures contract will be affected by contract rollover, with the last floor trade completed at 2:30 AM on May 21 and the last electronic trade at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's contract rollover announcements to manage risks. Additionally, the expiration time for some trading platforms' WTI contracts is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration. Please take note.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data on April 16, with preliminary estimates showing that the GDP in Q1 reached 31,875.8 billion yuan, up 5.4% YoY in constant prices, and up 1.2% QoQ from Q4 of the previous year. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 1,171.3 billion yuan, up 3.5% YoY; the added value of the secondary industry was 11,190.3 billion yuan, up 5.9% YoY; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 19,514.2 billion yuan, up 5.3% YoY.

SMM April 16 News: In the metal market, both domestic and overseas metal markets generally fell overnight, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel rising. LME nickel increased by 1.49%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.97%. Other metals declined, with LME zinc down by 0.83%, LME lead and LME tin both dropping by more than 0.7% (LME lead fell by 0.76%, LME tin decreased by 0.72%), and the rest of the metals saw declines of less than 0.7%. The main alumina contract rose by 0.78%. In the ferrous metals series, the performance was mixed, with stainless steel up by 0.16%, and iron ore flat at 709 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.61%, while coke increased by 1.42%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose by 0.64% overnight, and after opening on the morning of April 16, it continued to climb, repeatedly hitting new historical highs. By around 8:10, COMEX gold reached a peak of $3,273.2/oz. COMEX silver increased by 0.43%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.73%, reaching a historical high of 766.86 yuan/g, continuing to set new records, and SHFE silver increased by 0.59%. As of 6:42 on April 16, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the "Qiushi" magazine published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping titled "Accelerating the Construction of a Cultural Power," which outlines five aspects for accelerating the construction of a cultural power. First, unwaveringly follow the path of socialist cultural development with Chinese characteristics. Second, focus on stimulating the cultural innovation and creativity of the entire nation. Third, always keep cultural construction focused on and rooted in people. Fourth, continue the Chinese cultural heritage through creative transformation and innovative development. Fifth, continuously enhance the national cultural soft power and the influence of Chinese culture. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted a survey in Beijing on April 15, emphasizing the need to calmly respond to the difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic circulation with greater efforts, further unleashing the vitality and potential of China's super-large market. Additionally, Li Qiang emphasized the need to focus on promoting the construction of "good houses," accelerate the establishment of a new model for real estate development, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference on April 15, emphasizing that China is the market of the world and an opportunity for all countries. Faced with external uncertainties, China will persist in "shaking hands" rather than "waving fists," "dismantling walls" rather than "building fortresses," and "connecting" rather than "decoupling." In terms of the US dollar, it rose by 0.46% overnight. Tuesday's data showed that US import prices unexpectedly fell in March due to rising energy product costs. Trading has been relatively calm so far this week, but investors remain cautious as they await further clarity on tariffs. Most US markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday this Friday, but the foreign exchange market will remain open. Investors are currently awaiting a speech by Fed Chairman Powell scheduled for Wednesday for more clues on the interest rate path. In other currencies, the US dollar rose against the euro and yen on Tuesday, showing temporary signs of rebound after the US dollar index fell by more than 3% last week. However, investors remain cautious due to concerns about the impact of US President Trump's trade tariffs on the US economy. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day meeting on Thursday. The US dollar rose by 0.12% against the yen to 143.16 yen, not far from the six-month low of 142.05 hit last Friday. The US dollar rose by 0.91% against the Swiss franc to 0.822 francs, after falling to a 10-year low last week. The pound rose by 0.15% to $1.3209, having earlier touched $1.3252, the highest since October 3. The Australian dollar rose by 0.32% against the US dollar to $0.6345; the New Zealand dollar rose by 0.39% against the US dollar to $0.5899, having earlier touched $0.5943, the highest since November 13. In terms of data, today will see the release of China's March industrial added value year-to-date, March total retail sales of consumer goods year-to-date, Q1 GDP year-on-year, Q1 GDP total, Q1 GDP year-to-date, March total electricity consumption year-on-year, March urban fixed asset investment year-to-date, UK March core CPI year-on-year, UK March retail price index year-on-year, UK March unadjusted input PPI year-on-year, Eurozone March core harmonized CPI year-on-year unadjusted final, US March core retail sales month-on-month, US March retail sales year-on-year, US March industrial production month-on-month, US March manufacturing output month-on-month, US March industrial production year-on-year seasonally adjusted, and Canada's April 17 overnight lending rate. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The WTO will release the 2025 Global Trade Outlook report. Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak, ECB President Christine Lagarde and European Council President Costa will hold an informal dinner and exchange views, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a Q&A session, ECB President Christine Lagarde and European Council President Costa will hold an informal dinner and exchange views, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will hold a monetary policy press conference. In the crude oil sector, US oil closed at $61.53/barrel overnight, while Brent oil fell by 0.05%. Investors digested the latest news on the US's fluctuating tariff policies and tried to clarify to what extent trade disputes would reduce global economic growth and oil demand. The uncertainty of US trade policy has brought uncertainty to the global oil market, prompting OPEC to lower its demand forecast on Monday. The IEA predicted on Tuesday that global oil demand in 2025 is expected to grow at the slowest pace in five years due to concerns about the impact of US trade tariffs on economic growth. Tariff uncertainty has led several banks, including UBS, BNP Paribas, and HSBC, to lower their forecasts for crude oil prices. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, "If the trade dispute escalates further, our downside risk scenario—a deepening US recession and a hard landing for the Chinese economy—could push Brent crude prices to $40-60/barrel in the coming months." Concerns about Trump's tariffs, along with increased supply from the OPEC+ group, including Russia, have led to a drop in oil prices of about 13% so far this month. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. Data showed that in the week ending April 11, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels. Analysts surveyed earlier had expected US crude oil inventories to increase by 500,000 barrels last week, gasoline inventories to decrease by 1.6 million barrels, and distillate inventories to decrease by 1.2 million barrels. The US Energy Information Administration will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM April 12 News: In the metal market, both domestic and overseas metal markets rose collectively overnight, with most overseas gains exceeding 1%. LME tin led the gains with a 2.73% increase, followed by LME copper, which rose 2.18%. LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME nickel all rose over 1%, with LME aluminum up 1.14%, LME lead up 1.03%, and LME nickel up 1.5%. On the domestic market, SHFE copper, SHFE tin, and SHFE nickel all rose over 1%, with SHFE copper up 1.26%, SHFE tin up 1.52%, and SHFE nickel up 1.48%. Other metals saw changes within 1%. Additionally, the main alumina contract rose 2.38%. In the ferrous metals series, most products rose overnight, with stainless steel up 0.87% and iron ore up 0.07%. Rebar remained flat at 3,126 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 0.11%, while coke fell 0.52%. In the precious metals sector, due to a weaker US dollar and trade disputes raising concerns about an economic recession, investors flocked to gold as a safe haven. COMEX gold rose 2.44% overnight, hitting a high of $3,263/oz, setting a new historical record. COMEX silver surged 4.67%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.46%, reaching a high of 764.38 yuan/g, also setting a new record, while SHFE silver rose 2.79%. As of 9:21 AM on April 12, the overnight closing market conditions. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the State Council Tariff Commission announced that starting from April 12, 2025, the tariff rate on imports originating from the US will increase from 84% to 125%. The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson responded to questions regarding China's countermeasures against the US's latest tariff hike, stating that the US's repeated imposition of excessively high tariffs on China has become a numbers game with no practical economic significance, only exposing the US's tactics of weaponizing tariffs and engaging in bullying. If the US continues this tariff numbers game, China will ignore it. However, if the US insists on substantially infringing on China's rights and interests, China will resolutely counter and engage to the end. The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson also responded to questions regarding China's additional lawsuit against US tariff measures at the WTO, stating that China will firmly defend its legitimate rights and interests and uphold the multilateral trading system and international economic order. China urges the US to immediately correct its wrong practices and cancel all unilateral tariff measures against China. As of April 10, consumers have purchased a total of 100.35 million home appliances under the trade-in policy. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it will further implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, guide localities to intensify efforts, optimize procedures, strengthen publicity, and promote the detailed implementation of the home appliance trade-in policy to achieve greater results. The China Semiconductor Industry Association issued an urgent notice on the "origin" determination rules for semiconductor products, stating that the origin of "integrated circuits" will be determined based on the four-digit tariff code change principle, with the wafer fabrication location recognized as the origin. This means that some semiconductor products fabricated in the US may face price increases due to tariffs. Some chip channel suppliers reported that many US chip companies have suspended quoting new orders. On the US dollar front, the US dollar index fell 1.13% overnight, hitting a low of 99, marking its fourth consecutive decline and reaching its lowest level since April 2022, with a weekly drop of 2.99%. The US's fluctuating tariff policies have shaken investors' confidence in the US dollar as a safe haven, with the US dollar falling to its lowest level against the Swiss franc in a decade and hitting a three-year low against the euro. Data shows that due to unease over trade tensions, US consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in April, while the 12-month inflation expectation surged to its highest level since 1981. US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March due to a significant drop in energy product costs, but import tariffs are expected to push inflation higher in the coming months. The US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI fell 0.4% MoM in March, with February's data revised to 0.1%. The PPI rose 2.7% YoY in March, compared to 3.2% in February. Data released by the US Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 were 223,000, in line with expectations, with the previous week's figure at 219,000. Continuing claims for the week ending March 29 were 1.85 million, compared to expectations of 1.882 million, with the previous week's figure revised from 1.903 million to 1.893 million. Initial jobless claims increased slightly last week, and this number may trend upward as companies respond to import tariff plans. While overall layoffs remain at historically low levels, hiring has been lukewarm, leading to prolonged unemployment for some. Meanwhile, tariff policies increase the likelihood of an economic recession in the next 12 months. Market participants are now betting that the US Fed will resume rate cuts in June and cut rates by approximately 90 basis points by the end of 2025. In other currencies, the US dollar fell 0.71% against the Swiss franc to 0.81795. The US dollar fell 0.24% against the Japanese yen to 144.05 yen, after hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The euro surged 0.85% to 1.12970 US dollars, after hitting its highest level since February 2022. The euro rose 0.27% against the British pound, while the British pound rose 0.67% against the US dollar to 1.30540 US dollars. In terms of data, next week in China, the March trade balance, March import and export YoY, March M2 money supply YoY, year-to-date social financing scale, year-to-date new yuan loans, April 15 MLF operation size, April 15 MLF interest rate, year-to-date urban fixed asset investment YoY, year-to-date industrial added value YoY, March total retail sales YoY, Q1 GDP YoY (single quarter), year-to-date Q1 GDP YoY, and March electricity consumption YoY will be released. In the US, the March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation, March New York Fed 3-year inflation expectation, March New York Fed 1-year gold price expectation, April New York Fed manufacturing index, April New York Fed manufacturing future 6-month expectation index, March import price index YoY, March core retail sales MoM, March retail sales YoY, March retail sales control group MoM (seasonally adjusted), March industrial production MoM, March manufacturing production MoM, March manufacturing capacity utilization rate, March industrial production YoY (seasonally adjusted), March building permits annualized total initial value, initial jobless claims for the week ending April 12, and April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released. In the Eurozone, the April ZEW economic sentiment index, March total reserve assets, March core harmonized CPI YoY (unadjusted final), April ECB main refinancing rate, April ECB deposit facility rate, and April ECB marginal lending rate will be released. In the UK, the February unemployment rate (ILO standard), February three-month average earnings including bonuses YoY, March core CPI YoY, March retail price index YoY, and March unadjusted input PPI YoY will be released. In Australia, the ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending April 13, March seasonally adjusted unemployment, and March employment change will be released. In Canada, the March Bank of Canada core CPI YoY (unadjusted), February manufacturing sales MoM, February new manufacturing orders MoM, and April 17 Bank of Canada overnight lending rate will be released. Japan's March seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance, March merchandise exports (unadjusted), March national core CPI YoY, Germany's April ZEW economic sentiment index, New Zealand's March trade balance, and Q1 CPI YoY will also be released. Additionally, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance, and the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major cities. US Fed Chair Powell will deliver a speech, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Mester will participate in a Q&A session. Notably, on April 18, the New York Stock Exchange, Sydney Stock Exchange, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Paris Stock Exchange, Milan Stock Exchange, Madrid Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for Good Friday. CME will suspend trading for precious metals, US crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts for the entire day, and ICE will suspend trading for Brent crude oil futures contracts for the entire day. In the crude oil market, due to potential disruptions in Iranian oil exports, both WTI and Brent crude prices rose overnight, with WTI up 2.35% and Brent up 1.99%. Despite tightening supply prospects, concerns remain that trade disputes may reduce global trade volume and disrupt trade routes, thereby dragging down global economic growth and reducing oil demand. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that trade conflicts have impacted market sentiment and dragged down oil prices. Barclays remains cautious about near-term oil prices due to increased uncertainty from the recent sharp escalation in trade tensions. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its global economic growth forecast on Thursday and warned that tariffs could significantly impact oil prices, while also lowering its US and global oil demand estimates for this year and next. Baker Hughes, a US energy services company, reported in its closely watched report that the number of active oil rigs in the US recorded its largest weekly drop since June 2023, with the total number of oil and gas rigs falling for the third consecutive week. Data shows that as of the week ending April 11, the total number of oil and gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, fell by 7 to 583, marking the largest weekly drop since June 2024. The number of active oil rigs fell by 9 to 480.

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): National real estate development investment from January to February decreased by 9.8% YoY & The EU is expected to propose export restrictions and tariffs on European steel scrap and metals in Q3 2025.

China's total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 18.4% year-on-year, compared with 10.6% in March.