[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

[SMM Aluminum Bulletin] According to customs data, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 90,300 mt in January 2026, down 9.4% YoY and down 3.1% MoM. In February 2026, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 65,800 mt, down 28.2% YoY and down 27.1% MoM. Cumulative imports for January-February 2026 totaled 156,100 mt, down 18.5% YoY. Exports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 24,200 mt in January 2026, up 33.6% YoY and down 4.9% MoM. In February 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 13,300 mt, down 24.0% YoY and down 45.1% MoM. Cumulative exports for January-February 2026 totaled 37,500 mt, up 5.3% YoY.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

SMM June 11 News: Today, spot primary aluminum prices surged significantly by 240 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices closed at 20,400 yuan/mt, with aluminum scrap market prices generally following suit. As the off-season in June begins, downstream scrap utilisation enterprises are experiencing sluggish order releases, with procurement primarily driven by immediate needs. Today, the centralized quoted prices for baled UBC scrap range from 15,050 to 15,550 yuan/mt (tax not included), while shredded aluminum tense scrap is quoted at 15,700 to 17,200 yuan/mt (tax not included). Regionally, areas such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong closely track aluminum prices, with price adjustments ranging from 200 to 250 yuan/mt. In contrast, regions like Jiangxi, Foshan, and Guizhou lag behind aluminum price adjustments, with price changes ranging from 100 to 150 yuan/mt. By product, prices for baled UBC and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint have increased slightly by 50 to 100 yuan/mt, while bare bright aluminum wire and shredded aluminum tense scrap prices have risen by 200 yuan/mt. In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price spread between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai has narrowed by 30 yuan/mt compared to yesterday, closing at 1,847 yuan/mt. In Foshan, the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum extrusion scrap has widened by 100 yuan/mt compared to yesterday, reaching 1,514 yuan/mt. It is expected that the aluminum scrap market will continue to fluctuate at highs. The tight supply of aluminum tense scrap is unlikely to change, providing solid price support. Wrought aluminum alloy scrap will continue to fluctuate rangebound with primary aluminum, but the risk of a high-level correction in primary aluminum prices, coupled with weak demand during the off-season, may suppress upside room. The operating rate of downstream secondary aluminum alloy enterprises is likely to remain low, with a persistent struggle between costs and orders. Regarding reverse invoicing, regions such as Jiangxi, Anhui, and Hubei are actively promoting its implementation among producers and suppliers. According to feedback from some scrap utilisation enterprises, the tax costs arising from reverse invoicing will be shared by suppliers and producers, ultimately being passed on to raw material prices. On another front, the cast aluminum alloy futures were listed today, June 10. Futures arbitrage activities may temporarily boost market activity in the secondary aluminum alloy sector. As aluminum scrap is a core raw material for production, its price sensitivity may be further heightened. 》Subscribe to view SMM metal spot historical prices

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached 547,000 mt in May 2025, up 5.60% MoM and down 3.19% YoY. From January to May, cumulative exports totaled 2.431 million mt, a decrease of 5.1% YoY.

[May's Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Semis Exports] According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached 547,000 mt in May 2025, up 5.60% MoM and down 3.19% YoY. From January to May, cumulative exports totaled 2.431 million mt, down 5.1% YoY.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Mixed Sentiments, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate] Macro side, the phone call between China and the US may lead to a de-escalation of the trade war, while the rebound in China's manufacturing PMI and improvement in export indicators in May provide demand support, indicating that the resilience of the domestic economy remains. Fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic primary aluminum remains stable, and the reduction in casting ingot volume has temporarily maintained the destocking trend of domestic aluminum ingot inventory. Cost side, the impact of the Guinea mine incident on alumina prices has eased somewhat, and the real-time cost of primary aluminum has declined slightly MoM. Demand side, it is facing dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties. In the short term, the operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure, and the off-season atmosphere is becoming more pronounced. Overall, the current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. However, the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and range-bound in the short term.

Data released on the website of the General Administration of Customs on June 9 showed that China's imports of copper ores and concentrates reached 2.395 million mt in May, with cumulative imports from January to May totaling 12.406 million mt, up 7.4% YoY. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper semis amounted to 427,000 mt in May, with cumulative imports from January to May totaling 2.169 million mt, down 6.7% YoY. In terms of exports, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis stood at 547,000 mt in May, with cumulative exports from January to May totaling 2.43 million mt, down 5.1% YoY.

According to customs statistics, in the first five months of 2025, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this total, exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, while imports reached 7.27 trillion yuan, down 3.8%. In May, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7%. Of this total, exports amounted to 2.28 trillion yuan, up 6.3%, while imports reached 1.53 trillion yuan, down 2.1%. The main characteristics of China's import and export in the first five months are as follows: 1. Growth in import and export of Ordinary Trade and processing trade In the first five months, China's import and export of Ordinary Trade reached 11.51 trillion yuan, up 0.8%, accounting for 64.2% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this total, exports amounted to 7.04 trillion yuan, up 7%, while imports reached 4.47 trillion yuan, down 7.8%. During the same period, the import and export of processing trade reached 3.21 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, accounting for 17.9%. Of this total, exports amounted to 1.99 trillion yuan, up 4.5%, while imports reached 1.22 trillion yuan, up 9.3%. In addition, China's import and export through bonded logistics amounted to 2.54 trillion yuan, up 5.9%. Of this total, exports amounted to 1.05 trillion yuan, up 15.8%, while imports reached 1.49 trillion yuan, down 0.2%. 2. Growth in import and export with ASEAN and the EU In the first five months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and ASEAN reaching 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this total, exports to ASEAN amounted to 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%, while imports from ASEAN reached 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3%. The EU was China's second-largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and the EU reaching 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Of this total, exports to the EU amounted to 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%, while imports from the EU reached 728.33 billion yuan, down 6.1%. The US was China's third-largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and the US reaching 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Of this total, exports to the US amounted to 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%, while imports from the US reached 447.51 billion yuan, down 6.3%. During the same period, China's total import and export with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Of this total, exports amounted to 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%, while imports reached 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2%. 3. Growth in import and export of private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises In the first five months, the import and export of private enterprises reached 10.25 trillion yuan, up 7%, accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Of this total, exports amounted to RMB 6.97 trillion, up 8%, accounting for 65.4% of China's total export value. Imports reached RMB 3.28 trillion, up 4.9%, accounting for 45.1% of China's total import value. During the same period, the import and export volume of foreign-invested enterprises was RMB 5.21 trillion, up 2.3%, accounting for 29% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this, exports were RMB 2.88 trillion, up 6%, and imports were RMB 2.33 trillion, down 1.9%. The import and export volume of state-owned enterprises was RMB 2.44 trillion, down 12.7%, accounting for 13.6% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this, exports were RMB 799.4 billion, up 4.3%, and imports were RMB 1.64 trillion, down 19.1%. IV. Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 60% of exports, with growth in exports of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, integrated circuits, and automobiles. In the first five months, China exported RMB 6.4 trillion worth of mechanical and electrical products, up 9.3%, accounting for 60% of China's total export value. Of this, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were worth RMB 575.23 billion, up 3.9%; integrated circuits were worth RMB 526.4 billion, up 18.9%; and automobiles were worth RMB 351.37 billion, up 6.6%. During the same period, exports of labor-intensive products were RMB 1.66 trillion, down 1.5%, accounting for 15.6%. Of this, textiles were worth RMB 420.14 billion, up 3.7%. Exports of agricultural products were RMB 296.09 billion, up 4.7%. V. Import prices of major bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and coal fell, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased. In the first five months, China imported 486 million mt of iron ore, down 5.2%, with an average import price (the same hereinafter) of RMB 707.2 per mt, down 16.4%; 230 million mt of crude oil, up 0.3%, at RMB 3,864.3 per mt, down 10.6%; 189 million mt of coal, down 7.9%, at RMB 559 per mt, down 22.5%; 49.053 million mt of natural gas, down 9.5%, at RMB 3,274 per mt, down 6.8%; 37.108 million mt of soybeans, down 0.7%, at RMB 3,233.9 per mt, down 13.9%; and 15.98 million mt of refined oil products, down 26.8%, at RMB 4,323.2 per mt, down 0.1%. In addition, China imported 11.698 million mt of primary-shaped plastics, down 2.3%, at RMB 10,600 per mt, down 0.8%; and 2.169 million mt of unwrought copper and copper semis, down 6.7%, at RMB 69,400 per mt, up 6.6%. During the same period, imports of mechanical and electrical products were RMB 2.83 trillion, up 6%. SMM has compiled the import and export situation of some products in the metal industry based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in May 2025 5,864.6 mt, down 5.7% YoY from May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative exports reached 248,270 mt, up 2.3% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, steel exports totaled 10.578 million mt, up 9.8% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative exports reached 484,690 mt, up 8.9% YoY compared to January-May 2024 . In May 2025, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis totaled 5.47 million mt, down 3.2% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative exports reached 2.43 million mt, down 5.1% YoY compared to January-May 2024. Imports: In May 2025, imports of iron ore and concentrates totaled 98.131 million mt, down 3.8% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 486.409 million mt, down 5.2% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, imports of copper ore and concentrates totaled 2.395 million mt, up 5.8% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 12.406 million mt, up 7.4% YoY compared to January-May 2024 . In May 2025, imports of coal and lignite totaled 36.04 million mt, down 17.7% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 188.671 million mt, down 7.9 % YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, imports of rare earths reached 11,700.3 mt, down 14.9% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 48,998.0 mt, down 21.7% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, steel imports reached 481,000 mt, down 24.5% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 2.553 million mt, down 16.1% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis totaled 4.27 million mt, down 16.9% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 2.169 million mt, down 6.7% YoY compared to January-May 2024. 》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database Related readings: General Administration of Customs: China's import and export of goods trade increased by 2.5% in the first five months, with exports up 6.3% YoY in May