[United States] US HRC ex-works prices rose to around USD 1,316/tonne, up about USD 16/tonne on the week, as domestic mills continued to work through extended order backlogs and offered limited spot availability. Service centers increasingly turned to imports to secure supply, lifting imported HRC prices to around USD 1,102/tonne. Market participants expect domestic availability to remain constrained into Q4, supporting continued import interest.

SMM, August 13: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals were mostly lower. SHFE copper fell 0.5%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.9%, SHFE lead rose 0.63%, SHFE zinc fell 0.27%, SHFE tin fell 0.86%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.33%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.62%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract was flat at 148,840 yuan/mt, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.64%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.75%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.14%, rebar fell 0.5%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.37%, and stainless steel fell 0.93%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.27%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.73%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper fell 0.2%, LME aluminum fell 0.89%, LME zinc fell 0.4%, LME tin fell 0.18%, LME nickel fell 0.59%, and LME lead rose 0.21%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.02%, and COMEX silver fell 0.08%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.34%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.28%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 1.75% to 1,630 points. As of 11:45 on August 13, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,250 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,100 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, with arrivals declining and warehouse withdrawals increasing slightly... Macro front China: [China Is Formulating a New Round of Action Plans for Continuous Air Quality Improvement] The State Council Information Office held a themed press conference today (13th) in the series "Opening and Starting the '15th Five-Year Plan'." At the press conference, it was noted that China has made gratifying progress in air pollution control, but there is still no room for complacency or letting up; patience and resolve must be maintained. Currently, a new round of action plans for the continuous improvement of air quality is being expedited, and the battle to keep skies blue will focus on being "higher, more precise, and more scientific." (CCTV News) [Cumulative Trading Volume of the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Tops 900 Million mt] Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, said at the "Launching the 15th Five-Year Plan" press conference series held by the State Council Information Office on August 13 that by the end of July, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon emissions trading market had exceeded 930 million mt, effectively promoting the green and low-carbon transition while driving low-cost carbon reduction across industries. (Xinhua News Agency) [Shanghai: Promote Issuance of "Computing Power Vouchers," "Model Vouchers," and "Corpus Vouchers" to Reduce the Cost of Using Digital Factors Such as Public Data, Computing Power, Models, and Corpora] Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Implementing the Several Measures on Further Promoting Private Investment Development." The plan states that Shanghai will provide computing power subsidies in accordance with laws and regulations, support private enterprises in renting intelligent computing resources for the R&D, training, and application of large models, and encourage universities, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing power resources built by various market entities, including private enterprises. It will publish and dynamically update the public data opening list, support private enterprises in the in-depth development and scenario-based use of specific public data, and promote the issuance of "computing power vouchers," "model vouchers," and "corpus vouchers" to reduce the cost of using digital factors such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. It will cultivate benchmark and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation, and guide private enterprises to participate in the construction and scenario operation of digital transformation projects in areas such as transportation, logistics, and public services. It also encourages private enterprises to build demonstration projects of new-type infrastructure such as blockchain applications and large-scale robot applications. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Post Net Withdrawal of CNY1 Billion on the Day] The PBOC did not conduct reverse repo operations today, as CNY1 billion in 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of CNY1 billion on the day. On the Dollar Side: As of 11:45, the US dollar index was up 0.01% at 100. US core inflation in July was mild, which likely eased pressure on the US Fed to raise interest rates. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that, excluding volatile food and energy categories, core CPI rose 0.2% MoM in July. The YoY increase was 2.5%, matching the slowest pace since March 2021. Overall, July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY. This report indicated that the energy price shock from the Iran war continued to fade in July. As the US Fed discusses whether to raise rates at its September meeting, these figures may give the US Fed more room to weigh inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. Before the September meeting, policymakers will also see more reports on employment and inflation, while investors will closely watch a speech that Fed Chairman Warsh is expected to deliver at the annual Jackson Hole symposium later this month. US stock index futures rose, while US Treasury yields were basically flat. Investors lowered their bets on a September rate hike. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged by September is 59.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 40.1%. By October, the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged is 45.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 44.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate hike is 9.8%. (Jin10 Data App) A CITIC Securities research report said that US July CPI was fully in line with expectations, core inflation remained mild, and second-round inflation effects were modest, which helped further ease market concerns about inflation risks. We continue to believe that US inflation is not sticky, and we expect headline CPI YoY growth to generally continue its mild slowdown trend in Q3 and hit bottom in September, then rebound slightly in Q4 this year and decline rapidly in March next year. We still expect the US Fed to keep rates unchanged for the whole year, and there is further room for downward revision in rate hike expectations priced into derivatives markets. A CICC research report said that US July CPI rose 0.1% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY, all in line with market expectations. Energy prices continued to pull back, but international oil prices have risen again since August, increasing uncertainty about future energy prices. On the core inflation front, goods were strong while services were weak; in particular, prices of information technology products such as computers and software continued to rise, reflecting that the supply-demand mismatch caused by AI capital spending expansion is gradually transmitting to the consumer side. We believe US inflation may have entered a new phase, with its drivers gradually shifting from supply shocks such as tariffs and oil prices to demand expansion from AI investment, and the duration of inflation may be correspondingly prolonged. For the US Fed, this data eased near-term pressure to raise rates, but compared with supply-driven inflation, demand-pull inflation requires more attention from policymakers. Other currencies: RBA Assistant Governor Kent said that Australian monetary policy is currently restrictive, the three consecutive rate hikes early this year are now weighing on the economy, and the stronger Australian dollar has further reinforced this effect. He said: "Evidence suggests that monetary policy in Australia is somewhat restrictive, and the tightening earlier this year is working. Borrowing costs have risen, mortgage repayments have increased, conditions in the established housing market have weakened, and the Australian dollar has also appreciated year-to-date." He said aggregate demand growth appears to be slowing, adding that this is what policymakers want to see and is necessary to bring inflation back to target. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Today will bring the US 10-year Treasury auction high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for Aug 12, US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, US July PPI y/y and m/m, UK Q2 GDP y/y preliminary, UK June three-month GDP m/m, UK June manufacturing production m/m, UK June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK June industrial production m/m, and Eurozone June industrial production m/m, among others. In addition, JD.com will hold its Q2 earnings call; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak, and 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on the economic outlook. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, both benchmark oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.82%. Oil prices edged down as traders waited for signs of progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the Middle East front, there has been almost no sign of progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump said the United States has "complete control" over the waterway. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that as the US-Iran war continues, the global oil market faces a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, more than double its earlier forecast; the 2026 oil supply gap could reach its largest level in five years. According to the American Automobile Association, gasoline and diesel prices in the US have never been this high at this time of year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

In 2017, China used a hard “June 30” deadline to purge roughly 140 million tonnes of “ground-strip steel” (ditiaogang) capacity. But the furnaces did not disappear. Customs data tells the rest: after the ban, Southeast Asia's share of China's electric-furnace equipment exports climbed as high as 40.6%, and Indonesia's imports rose roughly 19-fold over eight years to become the world's No. 1 destination. The collapse of the State Audit Office tower in Bangkok sounded the first alarm.

This initiative aims to reduce US dependence on imported refractory-grade bauxite and is expected to meet the U.S. military’s entire demand for brown-fused alumina (BFA) and refractory-grade bauxite.

Copper prices advanced towards a record closing high as tightening physical supply continued to support the market alongside resilient long-term demand. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper contract strengthened as sustained inflows of metal into the United States and increased buying activity from China reduced the availability of copper in other regions. Large volumes of refined copper have been shipped into the U.S. this year as traders positioned ahead of a potential decision on refined copper import tariffs. At the same time, stronger purchasing activity from China has intensified competition for available material, further tightening the physical market. These developments have contributed to copper gaining approximately 14% since the beginning of 2026, building on three consecutive years of annual gains. Beyond near-term supply tightness, the market continues to be supported by long-term demand from power infrastructure, renewable energy, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence-related data centres. However, declining ore grades at existing operations and the increasing cost and complexity of developing new mines continue to constrain future supply growth. The latest price gains highlight a market increasingly influenced by physical supply constraints rather than demand alone. With inventories remaining tight and new mine supply struggling to keep pace with long-term consumption growth, sustained price strength could continue to support investment in mine expansions, brownfield redevelopment and domestic copper processing capacity.

This week, FOB quotations in the ex-China rare earth market generally declined, with varieties such as terbium oxide and terbium metal seeing noticeable drops. However, affected by policies and weak demand, actual transaction volumes were thin, and heavy rare earth prices stayed high. Meanwhile, supply chain restructuring moves were frequent: resources at Namibia's Kameelburg increased by another 35%, Japanese capital officially entered the Lofdal project; Malaysia considered conditionally liberalizing raw ore exports; US-based Energy Fuels advanced the final investment decision for the Donald project in Australia, and Lockheed Martin signed a long-term scandium supply agreement. A survey in Japan showed that 80% of manufacturing executives considered rare earth procurement a major risk, highlighting anxiety in the industry chain.

Why the Regulation Matters For mining and mineral-processing projects in Indonesia, regulatory certainty extends beyond investment permits, construction costs and production capacity. Companies must also understand how export revenue can be managed and how much cash remains available for operations, financing and reinvestment. DHE SDA, or Devisa Hasil Ekspor Sumber Daya Alam , refers to foreign-exchange proceeds generated from the exploitation, management or processing of Indonesia’s natural resources. Its treatment can affect working-capital requirements, debt servicing and project returns. Rare-earth content checks recently delayed alumina and nickel-product exports even though Indonesia had not established limits governing rare-earth elements occurring as by-products in those shipments. The government subsequently moved to address the regulatory gap. Against this backdrop, Government Regulation No. 21 of 2026 introduces more flexible DHE SDA treatment for certain mining-sector exports. The regulation amended Article 18A and became effective on June 1, 2026. What PP No. 21 of 2026 Changes Under the general framework, exporters must repatriate 100% of their DHE SDA into Indonesia. Non-oil-and-gas exporters must generally retain the full amount for at least 12 months through Bank BUMN. PP No. 21 of 2026 provides different treatment for certain mining-sector DHE SDA connected with bilateral agreements, understandings or other intergovernmental arrangements concerning trade. Requirement General non-oil-and-gas rule Article 18A mining treatment Repatriation into Indonesia 100% 100% Minimum retention 100% 30% Minimum retention period 12 months 3 months Banking channel Bank BUMN A foreign-exchange bank designated under the framework, potentially including a non-BUMN bank The change is a relaxation rather than a complete exemption. Full repatriation remains mandatory, but the amount subject to retention may fall from 100% to 30%, while the minimum period declines from 12 months to three months. Qualifying exporters may also place or convert the proceeds through banks outside Bank BUMN, subject to Bank Indonesia’s designation. For every US$100 million in export proceeds, the minimum retained amount could consequently fall from US$100 million for 12 months to US$30 million for three months. The actual financial effect would depend on the exporter’s working-capital requirements, financing arrangements, banking costs and the permitted use of the retained funds. How the Framework Appears to Operate PP No. 21 of 2026 refers to mining trade conducted in the implementation of bilateral agreements or other recognised trade arrangements. Based on that wording, this analysis reads the framework as follows: A qualifying trade arrangement exists or is recognised → an exporter or transaction is linked to that arrangement → the Article 18A treatment may apply. This is an analytical reading of the regulation’s structure, not a procedure expressly prescribed in PP No. 21 of 2026. The underlying trade arrangement appears to provide the policy basis for the relaxation. However, the regulation does not explain how an individual exporter, contract, shipment or export receipt becomes formally connected to that arrangement. Exporter Qualification and Bank Designation Are Separate The framework appears to involve two separate determinations. First, the exporter or DHE SDA flow must qualify for the Article 18A treatment because the relevant mining trade is connected with a recognised bilateral or other trade arrangement. Second, qualifying proceeds must be handled through a foreign-exchange bank designated under the framework. This may include a non-BUMN bank, but exporters cannot automatically use any foreign-exchange or non-BUMN bank. The designation of a bank does not establish that every exporter or transaction processed through it qualifies for reduced retention. Similarly, an exporter that qualifies for Article 18A treatment must still use an authorised banking channel. The qualification of the exporter or transaction determines whether the relaxation applies; bank designation determines where the qualifying proceeds may be handled. Four Countries Were Publicly Identified At separate press briefings on July 23, the United States, China, Australia and Canada were identified as countries associated with the exception. When explaining China’s inclusion, the finance minister referred to bilateral or multilateral arrangements, significant investment ties and the longstanding presence of Chinese banks in Indonesia. These considerations should not automatically be assumed to have been applied in the same way to all four countries. In this context, the term “exception” refers to the more flexible Article 18A treatment. It does not mean that export proceeds may remain overseas or that the minimum 30% retention requirement is removed. PP No. 21 of 2026 does not name the four countries and is drafted more broadly around bilateral agreements, understandings and other trade arrangements. They should therefore be treated as countries publicly identified by the government at that stage. The unresolved question is whether country-level recognition is sufficient or whether individual exporters and transactions must still pass a separate qualification process. What Remains Unclear The financial treatment is defined. The missing link is how a specific exporter or DHE SDA receipt is connected to a qualifying trade arrangement. Unresolved issue Practical question Buyer Must the contractual buyer be established in the partner country? Cargo destination Does the destination stated in the export declaration determine eligibility? Payment flow Does the country from which payment is received matter? Exporter affiliation Does this refer to foreign ownership, corporate control or another relationship? Contract Must the sales contract expressly fall under a recognised trade arrangement? Assessment level Is qualification determined by exporter, contract, shipment or individual payment? Verification Which authority confirms eligibility, and what documents are required? These questions are material because a mineral transaction may involve an Indonesian producer, a trader in Singapore, an end user in China and a foreign-linked bank operating in Indonesia. The available framework does not identify which connection would be decisive. Implications for Exporters and Investors The revised treatment could reduce the amount of cash tied up under the DHE SDA regime and lower short-term financing requirements for qualifying operations. This may be relevant to capital-intensive alumina refineries, aluminium smelters and other mineral-processing facilities. However, exporters may remain cautious about applying the 30%-for-three-month treatment until they can establish that their trade falls within the qualifying framework. The same uncertainty limits how confidently investors can include the relaxation in project cash-flow and financing models. Conclusion PP No. 21 of 2026 provides a measurable change for qualifying mining-sector DHE SDA. Full repatriation remains mandatory, but minimum retention may fall from 100% for 12 months to 30% for three months, with the proceeds handled through a foreign-exchange bank designated under the Bank Indonesia framework, potentially including a non-BUMN bank. The remaining uncertainty is how a bilateral or other recognised trade arrangement translates into eligibility for a particular exporter, contract, shipment or DHE SDA receipt. Until that connection is formally explained, the financial treatment and banking channel are identifiable, but access to the relaxation remains open to interpretation.

The overseas primary aluminum spot market remained subdued this week. Although limited restocking briefly improved trading activity in South Korea at the beginning of the week, the recovery was not sustained, and transactions weakened again from midweek. Elsewhere in Asia, the traditional downstream off-season continued to restrict purchasing activity. Thailand recorded few inquiries and particularly weak trading, while Japan’s spot MJP moved lower as sellers faced increasing difficulty securing transactions. In the United States, the Midwest DDP premium showed little change from the previous week. I. Review of Spot Premiums by Region According to SMM data, overseas primary aluminum spot premiums remained under pressure this week as weak seasonal consumption continued to limit downstream procurement. Market performance varied by region, but buyers generally remained cautious and focused on immediate production requirements. Southeast Asia Trading activity in Thailand remained very weak during the week. Few inquiries were reported as downstream consumers continued to operate cautiously during the traditional off-season. Most buyers maintained a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy and showed little interest in building additional inventories. With demand remaining subdued and transactions scarce, spot premiums continued to face downward pressure. South Korea Some downstream consumers in South Korea entered the market for restocking at the beginning of the week. The purchases temporarily improved transaction activity and eased the previously weak market sentiment. However, the improvement was short-lived. Trading weakened again from the middle of the week after the initial restocking demand faded. Buyers remained cautious about securing additional cargoes, and overall transaction volumes stayed limited. Japan CIF Japan MJP Primary Aluminum Spot Japan’s spot MJP premiums continued to move lower this week amid weakened downstream demand. Cargoes became increasingly difficult to sell, while buyers maintained strong bargaining positions and showed limited willingness to make large-volume purchases. Despite the continued decline, market expectations remained divided. Some participants still believed spot premiums could return toward the Q3 MJP benchmark if purchasing activity improves or spot availability tightens. For the time being, however, weak physical demand remained the dominant factor, and there was limited support for a sustained recovery in spot premiums. United States US Midwest DDP Primary Aluminum Premium The US Midwest DDP premium showed little change this week. Transaction activity remained limited, but the market did not record a significant fresh decline compared with the previous week. Buyers and sellers largely maintained cautious positions, leaving the premium relatively stable while the market waited for clearer changes in downstream demand or supply availability. Market Outlook Overseas primary aluminum spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure in the near term as the traditional downstream consumption off-season continues. Temporary restocking may briefly improve trading activity in individual markets, as seen in South Korea early this week. However, without a broader recovery in downstream demand, such improvements are unlikely to provide sustained support. In Japan, spot MJP may remain weak as long as sellers continue to face difficulty securing transactions. Although some market participants expect prices to return toward the Q3 MJP benchmark, this would likely require stronger restocking demand or a tightening of available spot supply.

Against the backdrop of the United States accelerating the build-out of its domestic battery supply chain while continuing to depend on foreign sources for critical minerals, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued an interim final rule on August 5, 2026, imposing export controls on certain recycled battery materials. The most impactful measure is a temporary export restriction on black mass — an intermediate product of lithium battery recycling.

【SMM Tungsten Express】US scrap trader Tungco plans to build a 3,000 tpa tungsten scrap recycling plant in Kentucky, codenamed "Project 74." The company is seeking public subsidies and promoting the project under the "urban mining" concept to strengthen domestic tungsten recycling capacity in the United States.