The global aluminum market is currently characterized by a distinct divergence between overseas and domestic markets. Overseas markets have performed strongly amid supply-side disruptions, while the domestic market has also strengthened due to similar supply disturbances but remained relatively weak compared with the LME. Details on supply, demand, trade and market structure are as follows: I. Overseas Aluminum Market: Prominent Supply Tightness and Sustained Pressure on Inventories The core contradiction in overseas aluminum markets lies in supply contraction and low inventory levels, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, further intensifying supply tightness. In terms of LME inventory data, current inventories remain on a continuous downward trend, greatly weakening their supportive role in the market. Historically and recently, LME cancelled warrants peaked at 178,000 tonnes earlier, accounting for 39% of total inventory. As a result, the effectively available LME inventory has dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, further highlighting tight overseas supply. Supply contraction has widened the market deficit, with production cuts at two key projects—EGA and Alba—having a particularly significant impact.On March 28, EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE and Alba’s plant in Bahrain were attacked, causing equipment damage and sharply raising risks of capacity disruptions. This came on top of earlier disruptions: March 15: Alba reduced output at three production lines due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; March 12: Qatar’s Qatalum smelter suspended 40% of capacity due to natural gas supply cuts. Overseas primary aluminum supply deficits are expected to continue widening. Meanwhile, high energy costs in Europe have also reduced local semi-fabricated aluminum output, further tightening supply. Supply tightness has directly driven a sharp rise in overseas spot premiums. Amid supply concerns from escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the Q2 MJP premium rose by approximately USD 156.5/t to USD 351.5/t. Specifically, major regional premiums rose markedly at end-March: CIF South Korea: from USD 168/t (early March) to USD 292/t; CIF Thailand: from USD 183/t to USD 317/t; European Duty Unpaid: from USD 345/t to USD 400/t; US Midwest DDP: from 103.75 cents/lb to 105.5 cents/lb. This fully reflects that expectations of tight primary aluminum supply have enabled sellers to push up quotations. Downstream demand and purchasing patterns vary significantly across regions: South Korea: Phase-wise restocking completed; weak downstream restocking sentiment, limited demand support. Southeast Asia: Dominated by term contract execution with limited spot restocking; insufficient incremental buying momentum. Europe: Rising supply shortage concerns amid production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain; downstream restocking underway, relatively strong demand. United States: Low inventories entering a restocking cycle, providing moderate market support. II. Domestic Aluminum Market: High Inventory Pressure, Weak and Constrained Demand In contrast to strong overseas markets, the domestic aluminum market has strengthened amid supply disruptions but underperformed relative to the LME, characterized by high inventories and constrained demand. High domestic aluminum prices have continued to suppress downstream purchasing. Current buying is mainly order-based rigid demand, with low willingness for active restocking, providing limited upward support. Domestic inventory pressure has not eased effectively: primary aluminum inventories remain elevated, and inventory destocking has progressed slower than expected, likely prolonging the digestion period.High inventories and high prices form dual constraints. Although the domestic market has upward momentum, it is weaker than overseas. Domestic spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure and further widen in the short term.

The United States currently operates no domestic nickel smelters, leaving North America entirely reliant on just two remaining pyrometallurgical facilities in Canada. Compounding this critical supply chain vulnerability, a recent report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace projects that the US will face a massive annual nickel deficit of approximately 741,987 tonnes by 2035. To address this severe shortfall, awaruite (a naturally occurring nickel-iron alloy) is emerging as a strategic solution. Because awaruite concentrate can bypass traditional smelting and be directly converted into nickel sulfate, it is favorably positioned to qualify for the US Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, helping to secure domestic defense and EV battery supply chains.

Korea’s battery industry is expanding beyond EVs into ESS and other applications. As a result, competition is shifting from product performance toward broader supply chain capabilities. InterBattery 2026 highlighted this transition.

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

SMM Nickel, March 27: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 26 local time, multiple US officials and informed sources revealed that the US Department of Defense was formulating a so-called "final blow" military option against Iran, and the relevant plans may include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrike operations. (2) In response to US President Trump saying that he would visit China in mid-May, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on March 26 that head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China-US relations, and the two sides have remained in communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. Spot Market: On March 27, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,900 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; spot premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) maintained rangebound fluctuations and closed the morning session at 137,010 yuan/mt today, up 0.01%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices higher. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

Global crude steel production declined by 2.2% year-on-year in February 2026, dropping to 141.8 million metric tons, according to data from the World Steel Association. However, production outside of the largest Asian markets showed strong localized growth, driven by robust domestic demand and infrastructure spending. India surged ahead with a 7.7% year-on-year increase to reach 13.6 million tons, while the United States recorded a 5.8% jump to 6.5 million tons. Germany also demonstrated a noticeable recovery, pushing its national steel output up by 4.8% to 2.8 million tons for the month

On March 26, 2026, EnergyX announced the official commissioning of its 250-ton-per-year direct lithium extraction (DLE) demonstration plant for battery-grade lithium hydroxide at the U.S.-based Project Lonestar™. This facility stands as the largest DLE lithium production unit in the United States and the first DLE line in Texas designed to locally process Smackover brine. It has verified the technology’s industrial performance, recovery rates and cost advantages in practical operation, confirming a scalable, cost-effective pathway for large-scale domestic lithium production in the U.S. Meanwhile, it lays a solid technical foundation for the company’s future global commercial capacity expansion targeting over 100,000 tons per annum.

The United States reported a 45.9% year-on-year reduction in imports of rolled steel during early 2026, reflecting the impact of newly implemented trade measures and heightened tariffs under Section 122. This sharp decline in foreign supply has significantly tightened the domestic market, allowing major US mills to increase spot market prices for hot-rolled coil to over $1,015 per tonne. Analysts suggest that the new tariff regime, which applies a 10% across-the-board duty on nearly all imports, is forcing a localized supply chain shift for North American manufacturers.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. No offline delivery information was available this week. Project-related updates: Guohua (Ningxia) New Energy Co., Ltd.: A price inquiry procurement was issued for the pre-feasibility study report preparation service for the Guohua Ningxia 100,000-mt Green Hydrogen Energy Supply Base Project (chemical section). It was understood that the Ningdong water electrolysis hydrogen production project of Guohua Ningxia had already put into operation a scale of 20,000 Nm³/h, with 6,000 Nm³/h under construction. Datang Inner Mongolia Duolun Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.: An inquiry-based procurement was launched for the feasibility study and green methanol certification consulting technical services for the CNCEC Duolun Coal Chemical coal-based process biomass co-firing coupled with green electricity green methanol production project. It was understood that the Datang Duolun 150,000-kW wind and solar power hydrogen production integrated demonstration project was China’s first medium-to-large-scale technology demonstration project for off-grid wind and solar power hydrogen production deeply coupled with coal chemical engineering. It was invested in and constructed by Datang Duolun Ruiyuan New Energy Co., Ltd., with a total investment of approximately 1.3 billion yuan. Construction officially began in November 2023, hydrogen was successfully produced on December 29, 2024, and it was formally connected to grid and put into operation on January 17, 2025. Shaanxi Construction Installation Group Co., Ltd.: The Guyang-Baiyun Obo gas transmission pipeline project, undertaken by Shaanxi Construction Installation Group, reached a major milestone, with its Guyang initial station and valve chamber having successfully passed completion acceptance. It was reported that the gas transmission pipeline project has a 20% hydrogen blending transmission capacity and is a key planned construction project under the “county-to-county coverage in western Inner Mongolia” initiative in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region’s 14th Five-Year Plan for oil and gas development. The pipeline has a total length of 125 km, starting from the Guyang initial station and generally running from south to north, successively passing through Guyang County, Darhan Muminggan Banner, and the Baiyun Obo mining district in Baotou City, and ultimately reaching Barun Industrial Park. Jiamusi Hanya New Energy Co., Ltd.: The Jiamusi Hanya wind power hydrogen production synthetic green methanol integrated project was filed. The project is located in Heilongjiang Province, with a total investment of 4 billion yuan. Construction scale and contents: mainly the construction of a 300,000-mt green methanol production unit and a thermal energy storage unit, with a planned land area of approximately 350,000 m². Windey Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd.: The list of winning candidates was announced for the biomass gasification process package and technical services project for the first-phase Handan Biomass Green Methanol Project. The top-ranked winning candidate was East China Engineering Science and Technology Co., Ltd. It was understood that East China Engineering has extensive experience in the gasification field, with experience in the design, construction, EPC general contracting, commissioning, and operation of more than 100 gasifiers, covering various mainstream processes such as fixed bed, fluidized bed, and entrained-flow bed. Zhongqing Xinneng (Baotou) Equipment Co., Ltd.: The annual production project for 100,000 hydrogen storage cylinders for hydrogen two-wheelers was filed. The project is located in Kundulun District, Baotou City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. It plans to build a production line with an annual capacity of 100,000 hydrogen storage cylinders for hydrogen two-wheelers, including production workshop renovation and supporting utilities. Annual output value will reach 100 million yuan. The planned construction period is from April 2026 to September 2026. Shenneng North (Otog Banner) Energy Co., Ltd.: The change to the 30 MW-class pure hydrogen gas turbine hydrogen energy storage demonstration project under the Otog Banner integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production and green ammonia synthesis project was filed. After the change, the project site is located in the eastern project area of the Ordos Otog Economic Development Zone, within Shenneng's water electrolysis hydrogen production station in Ordos City, Otog Banner, bounded to the north by the green hydrogen-to-green ammonia project under the Otog Banner integrated wind and solar power hydrogen production and green ammonia synthesis project, to the east by Jingsan Street, to the west by Jinger Street, and to the south by Weisi Road. Construction scale and content: the project covers an area of 500 sq m, of which the hydrogen gas turbine occupies 300 sq m. As a hydrogen energy storage demonstration project, it includes one 30 MW pure hydrogen gas turbine, generator, hydrogen storage equipment, and supporting facilities. Through wind and solar power generation and water electrolysis for hydrogen production, the project has a total hydrogen storage capacity of 360,000 Nm³, an effective hydrogen storage volume of 270,000 Nm³, and is equipped with 12 spherical hydrogen storage tanks, each with a water capacity of 1,875 m³. Jiyuan (Siping) Green Energy Co., Ltd.: The EPC tender for the hydrogen production works of the SPIC Green Energy Lishu wind and solar power hydrogen production, biomass-coupled green methanol project was released. It is understood that the project is located in the chemical park of the Siping New-type Industrialized Economic Development Zone, Lishu County, Siping City, Jilin Province. It adopts a green hydrogen coupled with biomass gasification process to synthesize 197,200 mt/year of methanol, started construction in August 2025, and is expected to be commissioned in September 2027. The project includes three hydrogen production workshops. Workshops No. 1 and No. 2 each are arranged with 12 sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolytic hydrogen production electrolyzers plus three sets of 4,000 Nm³/h hydrogen purification units; Workshop No. 3 is arranged with four sets of 1,000 Nm³/h alkaline electrolytic hydrogen production electrolyzers plus one set of 4,000 Nm³/h gas-liquid separation unit, among others. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Tibet Petroleum Branch : The tender notice for Section I of the general construction contracting project for the Shannan hydrogen-oxygen combined supply project was released. The construction site is in Naidong District, Shannan City, Tibet Autonomous Region; the planned construction period is 180 days; the estimated contract value for the section is 27.23 million yuan (tax included); the hydrogen production portion of the section tender includes an IGBT rectifier and control system skid, hydrogen production skid, oxygen purification unit, pure water machine and chiller unit skid, and related supporting facilities, while the hydrogen refueling portion includes a 35 MPa dual-nozzle hydrogen dispenser, 45 MPa hydrogen compressor skid, 45 MPa hydrogen storage cylinder bank, and sequence control panel. Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Co., Ltd.: It held a signing ceremony at Ming Yang Group headquarters for the hydrogen-fueled gas turbine complete-unit R&D and manufacturing project with the People's Government of Hudai Town, Binhu District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, with both parties formally reaching a strategic cooperation agreement. Sichuan Zhongke Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : First Public Notice of Environmental Impact Assessment Information for Phase II of the Integrated Energy Station Project Featuring Hydropower, Wind and Solar Power, Hydrogen, and Natural Gas Multi-Energy Complementarity. According to the document, Phase II of the integrated energy station project featuring hydropower, wind and solar power, hydrogen, and natural gas multi-energy complementarity is located in Nanchong High-tech Zone, with Sichuan Zhongke Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. as the project developer. It will build an integrated hydrogen production and refueling station, along with supporting public utility facilities, to realise the hydrogen refueling function of the integrated energy station for hydrogen-powered vehicles, and will also build one hydrogen energy industry R&D production site. GRINM Engineering Institute Co., Ltd. : The new materials pilot platform in Huairou Science City completed final acceptance upon completion, and four key pilot lines, including solid-state hydrogen storage and ceramic co-firing materials, entered the stage of commissioning and line integration. Among them, the total investment in the solid-state hydrogen storage project is 14.5 million yuan, and the total investment in the ceramic co-firing materials project is 12 million yuan, which will support the commercialisation of new material achievements and the industrialisation of hydrogen energy and key electronic materials. Policy Review​ 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued a notice on carrying out pilot work for the comprehensive application of hydrogen energy. The document states that by 2030, hydrogen energy in city clusters is expected to achieve large-scale application across diverse fields, and the average price of hydrogen for end-use is expected to fall below 25 yuan/kg, with efforts to reduce it to around 15 yuan/kg in certain advantaged regions; national fuel cell vehicle ownership is expected to double from the 2025 level, with efforts to reach 100,000 units. Through the expansion of application scale, it will promote innovative breakthroughs in hydrogen energy application technologies, processes, and equipment, realise iterative upgrades of fuel cells, electrolyzers, storage and transportation devices, and materials, and promote hydrogen energy as a new economic growth driver to support a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. 2. The People's Government of Hunan Province issued the Hunan Province 2026 Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The document states that efforts will be made to advance the circular economy and cleaner production and build a number of zero-carbon parks and zero-carbon factories. It is expected to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy system, optimise the management of new energy project pipelines, and speed up the construction of key wind and solar power projects. It will expand green energy consumption scenarios and implement a three-year doubling plan for the service capacity of charging facilities. It will also actively develop the hydrogen energy industry and expand the scale of natural gas utilisation. 3. With the approval of the National Energy Administration, the Standardization Technical Committee for Hydrogen Energy in the Energy Industry was established in Beijing. The establishment of this committee was intended to improve the industry standards system, lead technological innovation, and regulate market order. Enterprise Developments Haida Qingneng Ship (Dalian) Co., Ltd.: The nation's first inland 64-TEU hydrogen fuel cell-powered container vessel, Dongfang Qinggang, for which it supplied the powertrain, successfully completed its first long-distance trial voyage. The entire system operated stably, the navigation performance was excellent, and the trial voyage was a complete success. Hydrogen Power (Beijing) Technology Services Co., Ltd.: 100 hydrogen-powered refrigerated trucks were officially delivered to Hydrogen Cheng Times and will be operated by Hydrogen Power Technology as the agent. Rongcheng New Energy Group: Successfully delivered 50 hydrogen-powered heavy trucks to Cangzhou Huagang International Logistics Co., Ltd. This batch of vehicles will be put into service on the transport route from Huanghua Port to the Shandong Lubei Aluminum Industry Base. CSSC Engine Co., Ltd.: Its WinGD6X72DF-A-1.0 ammonia-fueled low-speed engine successfully passed functional integration approval and bench testing, and was successfully delivered in Qingdao. It is understood that this was the first ammonia-fueled marine engine in China to be formally delivered as a commercial product. Aerospace Engineering Company: Signed contracts for two major green hydrogen engineering projects in succession, namely the hydrogen refueling station water electrolysis hydrogen production project of Zhongqing Energy Development (Shandong) Co., Ltd., and the electrolytic hydrogen production unit project for the Inner Mongolia Fenglü green hydrogen-coupled coal-to-olefins project. For these two projects, Aerospace Engineering Company will provide a total of 16 sets of HTJSDJ-1000/1.6 alkaline electrolyzers, together with supporting post-processing systems and utility engineering equipment, and will be responsible for engineering design. This cooperation marked Aerospace Engineering Company's simultaneous breakthroughs in the two major fields of green transportation and green hydrogen chemicals. Qinghang Times (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. : Qinghang Times was established on January 5, 2026, with a registered capital of 1 million yuan and legal representative He Rongjie. Founded by a Tsinghua University master's and doctoral team, it received support from Tsinghua entrepreneurship and innovation platforms including Tsinghua i-Space and Tsinghua Chuang+, and was selected for the Sci-Tech Innovation Light "Future Tech Innovators Program." With a technical solution combining liquid hydrogen storage and a high-temperature PEM hydrogen-electric coupling system, it increases aircraft driving range by more than 10 times and payload capacity by 2-3 times. Recently, it completed seed-round financing of several million yuan, with the investor undisclosed. Shenzhen Hydrogen Zhi Energy Co., Ltd.: Completed A+ round financing, with Shenzhen Energy Investment as the investor. Anhui Mashui New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Anhui Mashui Technology completed A-round financing of over 100 million yuan, led by NIO Capital. This round of funding will be used primarily to fulfill large orders, increase R&D reserves, support new factory construction, and cover daily operations, so as to drive the integration and upgrading of the industry chain. China Energy Engineering Corporation Research Institute: The kick-off meeting for the international standard High-Pressure Liquid Hydrogen Pump for Hydrogen Refueling Stations, led and submitted by the Low-Carbon Institute, was held online. Since the standard was approved for project initiation in November last year, this meeting clarified the advancement plan and technical roadmap, bringing together 20 experts from China, the United States, Germany, France, Russia, Japan, and the European Industrial Gases Association, who reached consensus on core issues such as the standard’s scope and application scenarios, thereby laying a solid foundation for the high-quality and timely delivery of the standard. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Equipment Co., Ltd. : A delegation from Thailand’s water, electricity, and related institutions came to China for exchanges on the new energy industry and made a special trip to Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, to visit the rooftop PV hydrogen production project jointly developed by Zonergy and Guofu Hydrogen Energy. It was understood that the project relied on a distributed PV system installed on factory rooftops and used PV power generation to provide clean and stable electricity for enterprise production and energy applications, balancing efficient energy utilization with green development; at the same time, it integrated hydrogen energy application scenarios and was equipped with an ESS to ensure a stable energy supply for hydrogen production. It is a leading distributed PV hydrogen production demonstration project in China by scale, showcasing China’s advanced achievements in the integrated development of PV and hydrogen energy. Beijing SinoHytec Co., Ltd.: Signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haitai Solar and the Hebei Hydrogen Energy Society, relying on the National Energy Administration’s first batch of hydrogen energy pilot policies and centering on the Zhangjiakou-Chengde-Tangshan hydrogen energy regional pilot to advance the deep integration of “government, industry, academia, research, and application.” The three parties will focus on the Kangbao-Caofeidian long-distance hydrogen pipeline with annual hydrogen transmission capacity of 1.55 million mt, creating a “hydrogen production in Zhangjiakou and Chengde, application in Tangshan” model. Haitai Solar will provide SinoHytec with a stable hydrogen supply and storage and transportation services, addressing the industry’s high storage and transportation costs and supporting high-quality regional hydrogen energy development and the implementation of the “dual carbon” goals. The Sixth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation: Released four new hydrogen energy products in Beijing, including an onboard liquid hydrogen system, liquid hydrogen refueling equipment, a liquid hydrogen tank container, and an alkaline electrolyzer, and also released a blue book on the hydrogen energy industry to help build the hydrogen energy industry ecosystem. Beijing Hydrosys Technology Co., Ltd.: Its self-developed hydraulic-driven hydrogen compressor underwent rigorous assessment and passed EU CE certification. Patent Applications 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028 and developed a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane, with a laboratory-tested service life of up to 80,000 hours. 2. Johnson Matthey (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing an Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications 1. A joint team from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly conducted R&D on a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of hydrogen production via AEM water electrolysis and supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, significantly reducing the carbon footprint. 3. Relevant research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering at Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed the Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. The group standard Technical Specification for Hydrogen Production by Coupled Electrolysis with Wind and Solar Power, PV+ESS, and Green Electricity (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025) was released and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developed a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it has developed a next-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

Gold is a widely known safe-haven asset and tends to benefit during geopolitical turmoil, but the metal has remained largely range-bound amid the latest Middle East conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel.