China’s silver prices weakened this week, and the price spread between SGE TD prices and the SHFE April contract continued to narrow sharply. Imported silver ingots kept flowing into the market, but spot transactions turned noticeably sluggish in late March, with suppliers continuously lowering spot premiums to sell off inventory. As orders for PV silver powder and silver paste declined, silver nitrate enterprises generally said that after current order deliveries are completed, renewals of new orders will decrease, so raw material silver ingot procurement volume generally fell this week. As both silver prices and spot premiums showed signs of weakening, silver nitrate and other downstream enterprises mostly stayed cautious amid fears of further declines, negotiating for rigid-demand purchases and only buying the dip. As of Thursday, tradable quotes for Shanghai market standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been cut to below 100 yuan/kg. In Shenzhen, non-registered-brand silver ingots were occasionally quoted at parity or even at slight discounts for sale, but suppliers of standard silver ingots still mostly held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. After spot trading turned sluggish, the spot silver ingot market may see suppliers shift inventory and ship to delivery warehouses, and SGE or SHFE inventory is expected to post a slight buildup going forward. Inventory side, silver ingot inventory in Shenzhen posted a slight buildup this week, while inventories in some Shanghai warehouses did not increase significantly. Import profits for silver ingots narrowed sharply this week, and some smelters gradually began to fulfill export permits in late March, reducing domestic supply. Despite softer downstream consumption, silver ingot social inventory did not show a continued buildup trend this week.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 86,640 yuan/mt and immediately hit a session high of 86,640 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center kept moving lower, and it touched a session low of 82,930 yuan/mt near the close, before finally settling at 83,380 yuan/mt, down 4.59%. Open interest reached 5,565 lots, up 133 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume came in at 7,286 lots, up 2,262 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting increased short positions by bears. On the macro front, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, while the dot plot turned hawkish. The market expected that a Fed interest rate cut remained a distant prospect, putting copper prices under pressure. In addition, tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate, with Israel killing Iran’s intelligence minister and striking targets in northern Iran, while Iran retaliated by attacking energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The geopolitical conflict pushed up oil prices, intensified inflation risks, and drove the US dollar index higher, all of which were bearish for copper prices. On the fundamentals front, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargoes remained stable, with overall supply ample. Demand side, affected by the pullback in copper prices, downstream purchase willingness continued to rebound. Inventory side, as of Thursday, March 19, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 8.85% WoW from the previous Thursday, while total inventory increased 176,700 mt YoY, with destocking seen across all regions. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 94,430 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 83,380 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 94,219 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 211 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, narrowing from the previous day.

SMM Nickel News, March 19: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, while Governor Milan believed rates should be cut by 25 basis points. The impact of developments in the Middle East on the US economy remained uncertain. The dot plot maintained expectations for one interest rate cut in each of the next two years, but the distribution turned more hawkish. Market bets on the US Fed's rate cuts for the full year were reduced from about 20 basis points to less than 11 basis points. (2) Powell believed interest rates were at the high end of the neutral range, or slightly restrictive, leaving policy in a favorable position, and said the current situation was not stagflation. This energy supply disruption was a one-off event. Regarding whether he would remain in office, Powell stressed that he would not leave before the investigation concluded, and might not leave even after it concluded. If no successor was confirmed, he would continue to serve as acting chair. Spot Market: On March 19, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 3,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged sharply during the session and closed the morning session at 131,760 yuan/mt, down 2.79%. Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, and the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel triggered market concerns over rising energy prices, intensifying inflation, and economic slowdown. Safe-haven sentiment heated up. Combined with the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged while raising inflation expectations, expectations for interest rate cuts were revised down, causing metal prices to fall sharply across the board. Pressure from the macro perspective may continue to dominate market sentiment, and nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

【SMM Steel】On Mar 7, 2026, Turkey's Ministry of Trade initiated an anti-circumvention investigation into steel pipe fittings from China, following a complaint by local producer Trakya Döküm. The probe examines whether Chinese goods are routed via Romania to bypass existing AD duties. Investigation period: 2023-2025. Product under HS code 7307.19. The measure is effective immediately. Interested parties have 37 days to respond. Turkey has maintained AD duties on these Chinese products since 1999.

[SMM Daily Chrome Review: Overseas Ore Prices Continued to Rise, While the Alloy Market Temporarily Remained Stable] March 18, 2026 News: Chrome ore prices continued to rise, while ferrochrome quotations saw no adjustment for the time being...

[Macro Pressures Combined With High Inventory, SHFE Aluminum Remained Under Pressure at Elevated Levels in the Short Term] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. In China, social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had not ended. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighed on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and SHFE aluminum fell below the key threshold of 25,000 yuan/mt, remaining mainly under pressure at elevated levels in the short term.

Silver prices remained in the doldrums today. After the spot-futures price spread narrowed, premiums in the spot market continued to decline. In the Shanghai market, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots in the morning session were adjusted down to a premium of 200 yuan/kg against TD, but downstream consumption remained sluggish. As rigid demand for raw materials decreased, some suppliers lowered premiums to sell off cargoes and close deals. Although some smelters were reluctant to sell, quoting silver ingots at a premium of 150 yuan/kg against the 2606 contract or a premium of 200 yuan/kg against TD, actual transactions were scarce. In the Shenzhen market, non-standard registered brand silver ingots were sold off at parity or slight discounts against TD. Downstream buyers made substantial counteroffers and remained cautious on the sidelines. Spot cargoes circulating in the market were ample, and overall market transactions turned weaker.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

SMM, March 18: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract moved lower today. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, with mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market mostly ranging from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.05 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.03, up 0.33 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices pulled back, and buying sentiment in the central China market surged. Bullish sentiment in the market was strong, and willingness to buy the dip was significant. Meanwhile, suppliers tended to hold back from selling and turned to purchasing at lower prices to profit from the price spread. Only some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market took profits on premiums and shipped goods, while the overall reluctance to sell was evident. Market quotations ranged from parity with the central China price to a premium of 60 yuan, but final actual transactions were mainly concentrated at premiums of 30-40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 8,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.