Entering late July, China's tungsten market has overall moved into a phase of stage-based consolidation and repair. Following a sustained deep pullback in tungsten prices, low-priced goods in the market have become hard to find, as upstream mines and supplier traders have been hoarding, holding back from selling, and showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transactions has steadily moved higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotations by leading tungsten enterprises, transaction activity at the mine and APT ends has recently warmed up. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season in the industry, downstream end-use demand has yet to see a marked recovery, leaving the overall market in a structurally split pattern, with upstream raw material prices rebounding as suppliers hold prices firm, while downstream demand remains relatively weak. A Tungsten Enterprise Lowers Long-Term Contract Quotations for the Second Half of July A tungsten enterprise has lowered its long-term contract quotations for the second half of July, as detailed below: According to the long-term contract purchase quotations of a tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the second half of July, the details are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down by 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous quotation. Tungsten Prices Bid Farewell to Declines, Notch Two Consecutive Gains Looking back at the trend in this cycle, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to the previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in mid-to-early June, the trend continued to weaken. The core drag factor was the persistently sluggish downstream end-use demand, compounded by the ongoing digestion cycle of raw material inventories after earlier concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Starting from June 17, tungsten prices embarked on an overall weak downward path. Compared to the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 marked a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne over a period of just over one month, a drop of 23.7%. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, stage-based bottom support gradually emerged in the tungsten market. The tightening of upstream goods and rising sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm pushed tungsten prices to stop falling and stabilize, then ushered in a two-consecutive-day rebound. According to SMM quotations, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000~415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. Currently, low-priced goods on the market are quite scarce, and suppliers have generally ceased offloading at low prices. Coupled with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices from leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, this has effectively boosted market confidence, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge with long-term contract prices. Market Outlook Short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market will mainly see a slight rebound and consolidation at lows in late July, and the market does not yet have the conditions for a significant reversal. A substantial recovery in the market still hinges on the traditional downstream consumption peak season from August to September, driven by end-user order recovery and the release of concentrated restocking demand to push prices higher. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for the seasonal recovery, and some enterprises may gradually begin advance stockpiling at low prices, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to the tungsten market. At present, the tungsten market is at a critical period of stopping the decline and consolidating at lows, with market recovery focused on the upstream raw material side. The downstream tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors remain trapped in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operating rates and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time essential restocking strategy, with no large-scale stockpiling activity, unable to support a significant rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on the market recovery after August, and advance stockpiling at low prices in the market is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive the industry chain’s marginal improvement earlier. Markets outside China are affected by the summer holiday, with sluggish trading and high prices but no actual transactions, as prices continue to consolidate at high levels, with very low risk of a sharp decline. The divergent pattern between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, close attention will be paid to four key variables: first, the pace of supply release from domestic mines and changes in suppliers’ holding firm sentiment; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operating rate recovery and the strength of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract prices; fourth, the circulation volume of recycled tungsten scrap and the procurement release of downstream recycled raw materials. Recommended reading:

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Multiple Bearish Factors Weigh on Tungsten Market, Short-Term Weak Consolidation] SMM July 13 news: Overall, the China tungsten market in July faces multiple bearish factors, including pending clearance of previous inventories of upstream tungsten concentrates and smelting products, weakening demand from downstream cemented carbide during the off-season, and tightening export control policies that leave little room for growth in export orders. In the short term, the market will mainly follow a downward trend to hit bottom.

In H1 2026, the tungsten market was largely driven by supply-side dynamics, experiencing a complete cycle of sharp rises and falls before finally retreating from highs to close the half-year. Entering H2, the annual tungsten ore mining quotas have been fully implemented, monthly mine output has stabilized, and there is no significant room for further production cuts or new volume increases.

【SMM Tungsten Express】Almonty Industries announced that its Sangdong tungsten mine processing plant in South Korea has commenced operations, converting ore into saleable tungsten concentrate. As of end-June, the company had stockpiled approximately 139,700 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 0.25% WO₃, representing an illustrative gross in-process value of approximately US$68 million at current tungsten prices. The milestone marks Sangdong's transition from development into revenue-generating operations.

Entering July, the tungsten industry chain prices remained in the doldrums. A large tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract purchase quotes for the first half of July, while the Ganzhou Tungsten Association simultaneously lowered its monthly forecast average prices for all tungsten product categories, with prices across all categories down MoM. The spot market also followed suit and was under pressure. According to SMM quotes, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) have been on a weak decline since mid-to-late June. Looking back at the market trend this year, tungsten prices experienced wild swings. Comparing the two downward cycles, the overall decline in this round of adjustment that started in mid-June has narrowed compared with the first correction from March to May. Currently, the traditional off-season effect is prominent. Factors such as weak downstream demand and raw material inventory awaiting digestion continue to weigh on tungsten price performance; however, the scarcity of low-priced high-grade ore supplies will provide some support for tungsten prices. Industry Long-term Contract Quotes and Association Monthly Forecast Prices All Lowered A tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract quotes for the first half of July, as follows: According to Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. on July 6, its long-term contract purchase quotes for the first half of July are: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 448,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round of quotes; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 447,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round of quotes; 3. APT (GB Grade 0): 660,000 yuan/mt, down 120,000 yuan/mt from the previous round of quotes. The Ganzhou Tungsten Association released its forecast average prices of tungsten products for July 2026, with 55% wolframite concentrates at 448,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 57,000 yuan/mt from June; APT at 660,000 yuan/mt, down 100,000 yuan/mt from June; and medium-grain tungsten powder at 1,100 yuan/kg, down 200 yuan/kg from June. Wolframite Concentrates Fall 13.93% in Less Than a Month According to SMM quotes, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 7 was 453,000-455,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 3.61% from the previous trading day. Looking back at the short-term trend, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to a previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in early-to-mid June, weak downstream demand, together with the fact that raw material inventory accumulated from earlier concentrated enterprise stockpiling was still in the digestion cycle, weakened market support, and tungsten prices began a general weak downward adjustment from June 17. Compared with the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne on July 7 represents a decline of 73,500 yuan/standard tonne in less than a month, a drop of 13.93%. Taking a longer-term perspective, entering July, the average price trend of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) so far this year has been a dramatic roller coaster. Supported by tight raw material supply at the start of the year, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) began at 453,500 yuan/standard tonne on January 5, before surging to a historic high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne on March 13. At such high prices, market caution and fear of high prices gradually intensified, and coupled with limited acceptance from end-use demand, tungsten prices embarked on an overall downward trajectory, ultimately falling to an intra-year low of 400,500 yuan/standard tonne on May 25. After a deep correction in the preceding period, the market had a demand for an oversold recovery. This, combined with the concentrated release of phased restocking demand, saw tungsten prices start a rebound recovery from May 27, rising to 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 10. A comparison of two complete downward cycles so far this year reveals that the first round of correction after the initial-year surge featured a wider range of fluctuation, while the current correction, which began in mid-June, has seen a narrower overall downward magnitude relative to the previous correction. Synthesizing key price periods, it is clear that the wolframite concentrates market has experienced a large magnitude of fluctuations and prominent volatile characteristics this year. Outlook Looking ahead, in the short term, July marks the entry into the traditional off-season for downstream consumption. Purchasing willingness from cemented carbide and mechanical processing enterprises is weak, and market demand is performing mediocrely. However, circulating supply of high-grade tungsten ore is relatively scarce. With bullish and bearish factors checking each other, tungsten prices are expected to maintain narrow sideways consolidation. The pace of improvement on the downstream demand side remains a key focus going forward. In the medium and long term, domestic regulation on primary tungsten mining is continuously tightening, rigid demand support exists from the cemented carbide sector, and the scale of net tungsten product exports is growing steadily, leaving a supply-demand gap for the element tungsten throughout the year. In Q3, the insufficient alignment of mining indicators will create expectations of tightening on the raw material supply side, while the traditional "September-October peak season" is expected to drive a recovery in enterprise restocking demand. Simultaneously, rigid demand in military, high-end equipment, and new energy sectors continues to expand, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets is also expected to continuously boost export orders. Multiple favorable factors provide strong support for the medium and long-term central price range of tungsten. However, vigilance is needed regarding the risk of rapid market rises squeezing downstream processing enterprises' profits, which could force end-user production cuts and create negative feedback. Overall, the tungsten market is expected to follow a mild and orderly upward trajectory thereafter. Recommended Reading:

In June, global scrap tungsten markets diverged. India followed China's tungsten price rally, with active trading and higher prices in mid-June before cooling as China softened. Europe saw low-level consolidation due to high speculative inventories, but prices began to edge up in late June as stocks cleared. China's tungsten market experienced a sharp rebound followed by a pullback, and is expected to consolidate in the near term, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals remain solid.

On June 29, Xiamen Tungsten's share price declined. As of around 14:04 on the 29th, it had fallen 1.22% to 83.47 yuan per share. In terms of news, an announcement from Xiamen Tungsten on June 27 showed: To concentrate resources and focus on developing its three core businesses—tungsten & molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths— the company has decided to exit the real estate business. To gradually achieve this exit, Xiamen Tengwangge plans to publicly list for transfer, in the name of its partner Jianming, the unsold properties from Phases I through IV of the Straits International Community project and certain fixed assets within the Phase II commercial properties on the Fujian Provincial Property Rights Exchange, with a reserve price of 192 million yuan (RMB, the same hereinafter). The Straits International Community project (i.e., the commercial housing project on the north side of the Xiamen International Conference & Exhibition Center) was developed under Jianming's name, with related assets registered under Jianming. Through relevant cooperation agreements, Xiamen Tengwangge holds a 67.285% interest in the project, while Jianming holds a 32.715% interest. Commenting on the transaction’s impact, Xiamen Tungsten stated that this transaction is an optimization and adjustment of the company's resource allocation and asset structure based on its strategic development plans. It will help the company further focus on its core businesses and aligns with its long-term strategic planning. The transaction does not harm the interests of the company and its shareholders, particularly minority shareholders. As this is a listed transfer, whether the transaction will ultimately be completed and the final transaction price remain uncertain, and the impact on company performance is subject to change. It will be determined based on actual completion, and currently cannot be estimated. Performance: Xiamen Tungsten’s 2025 annual report shows that for 2025, the company achieved consolidated operating revenue of 46.265 billion yuan, up 30.79% YoY, and consolidated operating costs of 37.984 billion yuan, up 31.07% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reached 2.309 billion yuan, up 34.89% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.19 billion yuan, up 44.16% YoY. The revenue and profit of its tungsten & molybdenum, energy new materials, and rare earth businesses all registered solid growth. Market shares for its major competitive products—such as tungsten powder, fine tungsten wire, cemented carbide rods, ammonium molybdate, and LCO—remained at the forefront, while profitability of key products, including cemented carbide, cutting tools, fine tungsten wire, magnetic materials, and LCO, further improved. Regarding its main business, Xiamen Tungsten stated that the company focuses on its three core industries: tungsten & molybdenum, rare earths, and energy new materials. Leveraging deep technological expertise and a strong management culture, the company continuously pursues technological and management innovations. It steadily advances its industrial layout in tungsten, molybdenum, rare earths, and lithium battery cathode materials, actively expanding its tungsten & molybdenum deep-processing, rare earth deep-processing, and energy new materials industries, and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of its industry chain. Regarding the business plan, Xiamen Tungsten stated in its annual report: Overall annual work approach: The company will fully implement the guiding principles of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, take the 15th Five-Year Plan as its guide, and embark on a transformation toward "Industrial Services" and "Digital Operations"; pursue internationalization, digitalization, and product-as-a-service while advancing both organic growth and external expansion; promote organizational change and talent development; strengthen industry chain synergy and global footprint; upgrade value across the entire chain covering R&D, production, sales, procurement, and investment; enhance functional management efficiency and risk control, consolidate the foundation for development, and ensure that transformation tasks are implemented effectively. Overall annual target: In 2026, the company plans to achieve YoY growth in operating revenue and total profit. To achieve the above business targets, the company will focus on the following key tasks: 1. Advance the comprehensive development of core businesses. In the tungsten sector, the emphasis is on strengthening resource security, driving the transformation of cemented carbide, cutting tools, and rock drilling tools toward high-end and service-oriented offerings, consolidating the advantages of PV tungsten wire and other products, and incubating new products. In the molybdenum sector, the focus is on raising smelting capacity and powder quality, maintaining the gross margin of wire-cut molybdenum wire, and expanding the market share of molybdenum end-cap assemblies and molybdenum discs. In the rare earth sector, the company will expand overseas raw material sources, scale up the fine chemicals, luminescent materials, alloys, and magnetic materials businesses, accelerate new base construction and overseas deployment, increase R&D investment in motor products, and expand into high-end market segments such as equipment manufacturing. In the energy new materials sector, the company will strengthen supply chain cooperation, expand production of core materials, promote the industrialisation of cutting-edge technologies, and accelerate overseas project construction. 2. Strengthen mine resource security. Stabilize domestic mine operations, with a focus on overcoming challenges such as declining grades and rising costs at operating mines; accelerate the development of new mines, promote the injection of the Dahutang tungsten mine, and advance infrastructure construction at the Bobai tungsten mine in Guangxi in an orderly manner. Promote overseas mine projects, conduct preliminary research on mine planning, develop a global map of non-ferrous metals relevant to Xiamen Tungsten's businesses, explore multiple modes of resource acquisition, and study the boundary conditions and rules for engaging in other strategic metals. 3. Strengthen and supplement chains through global layout. Prioritize deep processing capacity construction projects for tungsten-molybdenum, rare earth, and energy new materials, accelerate overseas industrial deployment, and enhance the coverage of the global manufacturing network. Advance M&A projects in and outside China, deploy functional components and devices related to strategic emerging industry chains, and leverage industrial funds to invest along the upstream and downstream of the company's current and future industries. Promote capital operations of subsidiaries and the disposal of non-performing assets and equity stakes to enhance asset operation efficiency. 4. Pilot the transformation to "Industrial Services" and "Digital Operations". 5. Solidify the Five Pillars for Value Chain Value Enhancement. 6. Deepen the Safe Production and Green Manufacturing System. 7. Annual Function Enhancement and Safeguard Measures. Xiamen Tungsten previously disclosed in its Q1 2026 report that in Q1, the company achieved total operating revenue of 15.743 billion yuan, up 86.99% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 1.107 billion yuan, up 189.14% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the performance change, Xiamen Tungsten explained in its Q1 report that during the reporting period, the company actively responded to rising prices of major raw materials such as tungsten and cobalt, achieving effective linked increases in selling prices of main products across all segments of the industry chain, while sales of key products including cemented carbides, cutting tools, battery materials, and magnetic materials grew steadily, leading to a significant improvement in overall profitability. Xiamen Tungsten introduced: During the reporting period, the company focused on its core manufacturing business and operated steadily. The main highlights were as follows: 1. Tungsten and Molybdenum Business. In Q1 2026, the tungsten and molybdenum business achieved operating revenue of 7.321 billion yuan, up 83.13% YoY, and total profit of 1.763 billion yuan, up 238.82% YoY. The company proactively responded to the sharp rise in tungsten raw material prices, dynamically adjusted its business strategy, and achieved effective linked increases in selling prices of main products throughout the industry chain, significantly enhancing profitability. Among major products, cemented carbide product sales increased 5% YoY, with sales revenue up 156% YoY; cutting tool product sales grew 69% YoY, with sales revenue up 78% YoY; and fine tungsten wire, due to product mix adjustments, saw a 19% YoY decline in sales volume but a 73% YoY increase in sales revenue. 2. Energy New Materials Business. In Q1 2026, the battery materials business achieved operating revenue of 6.585 billion yuan, up 117.82% YoY, and total profit of 260 million yuan, up 94.24% YoY. The company continuously improved product quality and market development, achieving substantial growth in sales of main products and a significant boost in profitability. In Q1, sales of the company’s power battery cathode materials (including ternary cathode materials, LFP, and others) reached 15,700 mt, up 26% YoY, with sales revenue up 82% YoY; LCO sales volume was 14,700 mt, up 20% YoY, with sales revenue up 154% YoY. 3. Rare Earth Business. In Q1 2026, the rare earth business achieved operating revenue of 1.826 billion yuan, up 31.68% YoY, and total profit of 70 million yuan, up 65.72% YoY. The company optimized its product mix, achieving volume and profit growth for high-value-added products, effectively enhancing profitability. Sales of the main deep-processing product, magnetic materials, rose by 24% YoY, with sales revenue up 50% YoY. 4. Real estate business. In Q1 2026, the real estate business reported revenue of 10 million yuan, down 8.08% YoY, while total profit was -19 million yuan, narrowing losses slightly YoY. Tungsten: Looking back at the 2025 tungsten price trend, taking SMM wolframite concentrates (≥65%) as an example: The average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on December 31, 2025, was 453,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 217.69% compared with 142,750 yuan/standard tonne on December 31, 2024. Reviewing Q1 this year, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on March 31 was 992,500 yuan/standard tonne, surging by 539,000 yuan/standard tonne from the 453,500 yuan/standard tonne on December 31, 2025, representing a gain of 118.85%. After the earlier sustained rebound, wolframite concentrates returned to 500,000 yuan/standard tonne and then moved sideways. On June 29, the average price of wolframite concentrates was 507,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 0.98% from the previous trading day. Fundamentals side: Supply-demand wise, upstream mines still hold prices firm, and high-grade tungsten ore supply remains tight. Downstream, affected by the traditional off-season, cemented carbide and mechanical processing enterprises maintain hand-to-mouth restocking, leaving overall market transactions subdued. In the short term, supply and demand remain in a tug-of-war. Outside China, with increasingly stringent export controls and tight primary tungsten supply, European APT prices continue to fluctuate at highs. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets remains large, providing some support for domestic tungsten prices. Meanwhile, tax policies related to the tungsten scrap recycling sector are being further refined, expected to boost compliant tungsten scrap circulation. This will, in the medium and long term, promote standardized development of the recycled tungsten industry and improve China’s tungsten resource supply structure . The domestic tungsten market is expected to mainly consolidate in the short term, with focus on long-term contract price adjustments, pace of mine shipments, changes in downstream off-season demand, and the impact of overseas export policies on market sentiment. Over the medium and long term, attention should be paid to declining supply during the seasonal mine output gap in Q3, while improving consumption expectations during the September-October peak season will further optimize the supply-demand structure, bringing bullish sentiment to prices. Recommended reading:

[SMM Scrap Tungsten Flash] SMM, June 25 – This week, the ex-China scrap tungsten market showed divergent trends. European scrap tungsten alloy blade prices were raised to €90-95/kg, up 5.71% WoW. According to traders, the scrap recycling systems of European tool enterprises continued to expand, and scrap demand and trading remained active. Indian scrap tungsten drill bit prices were lowered to $120-140/kg, down 3.7% WoW. Local scrap market demand activity was subdued. On the one hand, this was influenced by the slight quiet decline in Chinese prices; on the other hand, some downstream sodium tungstate enterprises in the scrap sector indicated that end-users in Europe and the US, having established their own recycling systems, had seen weaker demand for raw materials such as sodium tungstate.

SMM News Release, June 22 According to customs data, China’s total exports of tungsten smelting products and tungsten materials reached approximately 1,063.6 tons in May 2026, down 11.9% month-on-month and 17.9% year-on-year.

SMM, June 18: The Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law of the People's Republic of China, which took effect on June 15, listed 36 types of minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium, as national-level strategic minerals, subjecting them to full-chain, high-intensity control. The prices of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide saw their third consecutive daily increase on June 17; Orient Zirconium issued a price adjustment notice, raising the prices of its related zirconium products effective June 18, 2026; and the favor of some market funds all contributed to the opening strength of the minor metal sector. As of around 9:57 on June 18, the minor metal industry sector rose by 3.09%. In terms of individual stocks: Orient Zirconium, Shenghe Resources, and Zhongxi Nonferrous hit the daily limit; China Rare Earth, Jintian Titanium, China Northern Rare Earth, China Tungsten High-Tech, Tin Industry Co., and Yunnan Germanium led the gains. Market News Orient Zirconium raised the prices of its related zirconium products effective June 18, 2026 On June 18, Orient Zirconium issued a product price adjustment notice. The notice indicated that based on current market conditions, Orient Zirconium decided to raise the prices of its related zirconium products starting from June 18, 2026, with the price adjustments as follows: zirconium oxychloride products (including mother liquor materials) increased by 1,500 yuan/mt; zirconium dioxide products increased by 4,500 yuan/mt; fused zirconium products increased by 2,000 yuan/mt; at the same time, the prices of other zirconium series products from Orient Zirconium will be adjusted accordingly. [Aidite: The company has already laid out a powder substitute plan and fully implemented it; the new material can replace the original imported powder] On June 17, Aidite stated on an interactive platform while answering investor questions that the company had received a notice from Japan's Tosoh regarding the suspension of zirconia powder supply. To ensure the stability of its own supply, the company had already laid out a powder substitute plan and fully implemented it; the new material can replace the original imported powder, and the entire new product line has passed rigorous customer verification. Currently, several core major clients have completed the switch and signed long-term orders at the recent dealer conference. The company will actively take a series of measures to avoid any adverse impact from the Japanese powder supply disruption. In the future, the company will seize the window of opportunity for high-quality material breakthroughs and, leveraging its technical and delivery advantages, continue to expand its market share. Spot Market Zirconium According to the SMM price assessment, on June 18, the price of zirconium oxychloride (Zr(Hf)O2≥36%) was quoted at 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 17,750 yuan/mt, up 5.97% from the previous trading day. The zirconium industry chain had long been under pressure, with sluggish traditional demand from ceramics and high industry inventories. Zircon sand and zirconium oxide prices persistently hovered at lows, trading was sluggish, and the market was at the bottom of the cycle. Since entering Q2 this year, driven by export controls on zirconium products to Japan, price hikes by overseas zirconium ore producers, and demand expectations for solid-state batteries, zirconium raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, inventories destocked, and the industry moved out of the bottom range, embarking on a volatile recovery trend. Upstream zircon sand imports have tightened, overseas miners continue to raise prices, and cost support has been strengthening. Dongfang Zirconium Industry completed a round of price hikes in April and raised zirconium product prices again on June 18. For the zirconium market outlook, supported by tightening raw material supply, zirconium prices will hold up well in the short term. Going forward, attention should be paid to changes in raw material supply and downstream demand. Rare Earth In the rare earth market: Rare earth oxide prices were relatively stable overall, but downstream purchasing activity has decreased as the holiday approaches. Pr-Nd oxide and dysprosium oxide ended their three-day winning streak and both pulled back slightly on June 18, while terbium oxide prices held steady on June 18 after a previous three-day rise. Expectations for production cuts in the scrap recycling sector and news-driven factors previously drove Pr-Nd prices, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide higher. However, after the afternoon session on June 17, shipments of Pr-Nd oxide from traders increased slightly, and the center of the actual trading range shifted lower. For medium-heavy rare earths, oxide suppliers held firm offer prices, but actual buying from metal enterprises was limited, and downstream magnetic material enterprises showed limited acceptance of high metal prices. Affected by the stalemate in market trading, rare earth prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. Tin Additionally, in the tin market: On June 18, the average price of SMM 1# tin fell 0.93% from the previous trading day. Driven by the US Fed keeping rates unchanged but signaling a hawkish bias, with half of policymakers expecting rate hikes this year, nonferrous metals fell overall and tin prices also pulled back. Currently, on the fundamental side: (1) Supply side: In June, most smelters focused on maintaining stable production. (2) Demand side: Downstream purchases were cautious, buying according to orders. Spot market: Overall trading sentiment in the spot market was light. Although tin prices have pulled back, they remain at relatively high levels and the holiday is approaching. Additionally, as the electronics industry enters its traditional off-season, downstream enterprises such as solder makers are only purchasing on a "buy on dips for essential needs" basis. Institutional Views Guojin Securities’ research report on June 14 showed: Rare Earth: Dysprosium oxide may benefit from the boost by MLCC, with a significant rebound trend from price lows. From the start of the year, the price center has continued to rise. We believe this is likely related to supply-side documents released in 2024-2025, with ongoing supply-side reform in the industry. Exports fell 1% YoY for full-year 2025, while exports from early 2026 to date have increased significantly, indicating strong restocking demand outside China. The rare earth sector will continue to see dual improvements in valuation and performance, and 2026 is also a key year for resolving industry competition among key targets. On the resource side, attention is recommended for China Rare Earth (medium-heavy rare earth leader, biggest beneficiary of supply-side reform), Zhongxi Nonferrous (undervalued, high-growth South China rare earth leader), and China Northern Rare Earth (light rare earth leader, with significant cost advantages); other related targets include Bao Gang United Steel, JL MAG Rare-Earth, etc. Tin: It believes that invisible inventory of tin ingots is gradually drying up, so tin prices are expected to strengthen under the backfill of macro liquidity or spillover from tech markets. The supply-demand pattern for tin will improve in the long term. Tungsten: This period, tungsten prices continued their rebound trend. It believes that against the backdrop of increased strategic stockpiling outside China, tungsten may have higher priority; tungsten's supply-demand fundamentals have seen strong resonance. Molybdenum: The destocking of imported ore has been significant, and domestic molybdenum prices have stabilized and rebounded. Steel procurement volume remains robust, destocking along the industry chain is progressing, and the deadlock of molybdenum prices with "volume but no price" is gradually being broken, with the upward channel becoming clearer. Molybdenum is also a military metal, with persistently low inventory, and increased defense spending outside China may further boost molybdenum prices. Huafu Securities’ research report on June 14 showed: Other Minor Metals: Industry leaders' long-term contract performance was impressive, and market sentiment in tungsten clearly stabilized. The tungsten market overall has walked out of a mild recovery, with the previous consolidation at lows being reversed somewhat. Industry leaders' long-term contract transactions were impressive, serving as a key driver for the upward movement in futures, and overall market sentiment clearly stabilized. However, the spot and scattered cargo atmosphere remained mediocre, with no widespread price-following adjustments upstream or downstream, and the rebound pace was gentle, with the market overall in a stage of steady recovery. Open Source Securities' 2026 mid-year investment strategy for the metals industry showed: Copper: Supply side, most miners outside China still face declining grades and recovery rates, and disruptive factors persist (Ivanhoe’s KK copper mine, Codelco’s El Teniente copper mine). While Chinese enterprises are increasing output, the overall increase is limited. Under an optimistic scenario, global supply growth may be below 2% in 2026-2027. Demand side, H1 electricity demand in China and the US maintained high growth rates, which may contribute marginal increments to copper demand. Open Source Securities believes that the supply-demand structure contradiction for copper will further highlight in 2026, supporting the rise in copper price center. Lithium: On the supply side of the lithium industry, capital spending cuts and the gradual formation of supply discipline, coupled with frequent disruptions, have led to a marked decline in supply elasticity compared with the past. Meanwhile, sustained strong demand from the energy storage sector is improving the structure of lithium demand, while industry inventory pressure is easing marginally. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Enterprises with advantages in resource security, low costs and integrated layout are likely to show stronger earnings recovery than the industry average. Lithium mines and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency and strong cost control deserve attention. Tungsten: As an advantaged strategic metal in China, tungsten mine supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection and other factors. Together with the total mining volume control implemented by the state, tungsten mine production release is limited. On the demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to support tungsten prices over the long term. Recommended reading: