[SMM Tungsten Analysis: Tug-of-war Between Mine-side Price Holding and End-user Off-season, Short-term Tungsten Market Likely to Move Sideways] SMM July 23 News: This week, the tungsten market center rebounded slightly. At the beginning of the week, upstream raw material transactions turned active, and the market transaction center edged up slightly. Mine-side suppliers’ sentiment of holding back from selling intensified, and prices held firm. However, there was ample supply of low and medium-grade ore in the market, and the price spread between high-grade and low-grade ore transaction prices widened. At the start of the week, a tungsten enterprise in Jiangxi published its long-term contract prices, which were generally close to the spot order transaction prices of that day. The price spread between long-term contracts and spot orders narrowed. As the weekend approached, market sentiment diverged,

Entering late July, China's tungsten market has overall moved into a phase of stage-based consolidation and repair. Following a sustained deep pullback in tungsten prices, low-priced goods in the market have become hard to find, as upstream mines and supplier traders have been hoarding, holding back from selling, and showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm, while the center of spot order transactions has steadily moved higher. Coupled with the boost to market sentiment from long-term contract purchase quotations by leading tungsten enterprises, transaction activity at the mine and APT ends has recently warmed up. However, constrained by the traditional consumption off-season in the industry, downstream end-use demand has yet to see a marked recovery, leaving the overall market in a structurally split pattern, with upstream raw material prices rebounding as suppliers hold prices firm, while downstream demand remains relatively weak. A Tungsten Enterprise Lowers Long-Term Contract Quotations for the Second Half of July A tungsten enterprise has lowered its long-term contract quotations for the second half of July, as detailed below: According to the long-term contract purchase quotations of a tungsten enterprise in Chongyi for the second half of July, the details are as follows: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 411,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 410,000 yuan/standard tonne, down by 37,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous quotation; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 605,000 yuan/mt, down by 55,000 yuan/mt from the previous quotation. Tungsten Prices Bid Farewell to Declines, Notch Two Consecutive Gains Looking back at the trend in this cycle, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to the previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in mid-to-early June, the trend continued to weaken. The core drag factor was the persistently sluggish downstream end-use demand, compounded by the ongoing digestion cycle of raw material inventories after earlier concentrated stockpiling by enterprises, which significantly weakened market price support. Starting from June 17, tungsten prices embarked on an overall weak downward path. Compared to the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 402,500 yuan/standard tonne on July 17 marked a decline of 125,000 yuan/standard tonne over a period of just over one month, a drop of 23.7%. After the rapid pullback in tungsten prices, stage-based bottom support gradually emerged in the tungsten market. The tightening of upstream goods and rising sentiment of holding back from selling and holding prices firm pushed tungsten prices to stop falling and stabilize, then ushered in a two-consecutive-day rebound. According to SMM quotations, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 21 was 410,000~415,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 412,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. Currently, low-priced goods on the market are quite scarce, and suppliers have generally ceased offloading at low prices. Coupled with the fact that long-term contract purchase prices from leading tungsten enterprises are higher than mainstream spot transaction prices, this has effectively boosted market confidence, driving spot transaction prices to gradually converge with long-term contract prices. Market Outlook Short term, supported by tightening raw material supply and strong sentiment among suppliers to hold prices firm, the tungsten market will mainly see a slight rebound and consolidation at lows in late July, and the market does not yet have the conditions for a significant reversal. A substantial recovery in the market still hinges on the traditional downstream consumption peak season from August to September, driven by end-user order recovery and the release of concentrated restocking demand to push prices higher. Currently, the industry chain has relatively consistent expectations for the seasonal recovery, and some enterprises may gradually begin advance stockpiling at low prices, which is expected to bring marginal improvement to the tungsten market. At present, the tungsten market is at a critical period of stopping the decline and consolidating at lows, with market recovery focused on the upstream raw material side. The downstream tungsten powder and cemented carbide sectors remain trapped in the traditional consumption off-season, with stable end-user operating rates and scarce new orders. Enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time essential restocking strategy, with no large-scale stockpiling activity, unable to support a significant rise in raw material prices. However, the industry chain has formed a broad consensus on the market recovery after August, and advance stockpiling at low prices in the market is gradually increasing, which is expected to drive the industry chain’s marginal improvement earlier. Markets outside China are affected by the summer holiday, with sluggish trading and high prices but no actual transactions, as prices continue to consolidate at high levels, with very low risk of a sharp decline. The divergent pattern between domestic and overseas markets is expected to persist. Going forward, close attention will be paid to four key variables: first, the pace of supply release from domestic mines and changes in suppliers’ holding firm sentiment; second, the pace of downstream cemented carbide end-user operating rate recovery and the strength of concentrated restocking; third, the market guidance role of APT long-term contract prices; fourth, the circulation volume of recycled tungsten scrap and the procurement release of downstream recycled raw materials. Recommended reading:

[Tungsten Express] SMM, July 16: Tungsten concentrates held steady today. Yesterday, auctions of tungsten ore at mines in Yunnan and Hunan were all successfully concluded, with high-grade 50% ore from a mine sold at over 400,000 yuan per standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), boosting market confidence. As the tungsten market fell steadily for a month, supplier inventories were gradually destocked. Some suppliers, bullish on the outlook, largely suspended shipments, making it harder for downstream buyers to push for lower prices and edging the bargaining center slightly higher. Currently, 55% tungsten concentrates were traded at 380,000-405,000 yuan per standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). A small number of smelters restocked on a need-to basis at low prices. In the short term, the market has entered a phase of consolidation with seesaw movements at lows.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Multiple Bearish Factors Weigh on Tungsten Market, Short-Term Weak Consolidation] SMM July 13 news: Overall, the China tungsten market in July faces multiple bearish factors, including pending clearance of previous inventories of upstream tungsten concentrates and smelting products, weakening demand from downstream cemented carbide during the off-season, and tightening export control policies that leave little room for growth in export orders. In the short term, the market will mainly follow a downward trend to hit bottom.

In H1 2026, the tungsten market was largely driven by supply-side dynamics, experiencing a complete cycle of sharp rises and falls before finally retreating from highs to close the half-year. Entering H2, the annual tungsten ore mining quotas have been fully implemented, monthly mine output has stabilized, and there is no significant room for further production cuts or new volume increases.

[Tungsten Express] SMM July 13 News: The tungsten market mainly consolidated on a weak note, with spot market transactions significantly lower than online prices. Last Friday, a Guangdong enterprise sharply lowered its long-term contract prices, and the long-term contract price for 55% wolframite concentrates was set at 411,000 yuan, slightly higher than the spot order transaction price on that day. As of today, the spot wolframite concentrates market experienced some price collapse. Suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, and some traders entered the market to buy at low prices. Market transactions took place below the long-term contract price range, with some medium- to low-grade ore transactions at 380,000-390,000 yuan per standard tonne (65% WO3 basis). High-grade ore prices showed resistance to declines, with transaction prices concentrated around 390,000-410,000 yuan per standard tonne (65% WO3 basis).

Entering July, the tungsten industry chain prices remained in the doldrums. A large tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract purchase quotes for the first half of July, while the Ganzhou Tungsten Association simultaneously lowered its monthly forecast average prices for all tungsten product categories, with prices across all categories down MoM. The spot market also followed suit and was under pressure. According to SMM quotes, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) have been on a weak decline since mid-to-late June. Looking back at the market trend this year, tungsten prices experienced wild swings. Comparing the two downward cycles, the overall decline in this round of adjustment that started in mid-June has narrowed compared with the first correction from March to May. Currently, the traditional off-season effect is prominent. Factors such as weak downstream demand and raw material inventory awaiting digestion continue to weigh on tungsten price performance; however, the scarcity of low-priced high-grade ore supplies will provide some support for tungsten prices. Industry Long-term Contract Quotes and Association Monthly Forecast Prices All Lowered A tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract quotes for the first half of July, as follows: According to Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. on July 6, its long-term contract purchase quotes for the first half of July are: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 448,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round of quotes; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 447,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round of quotes; 3. APT (GB Grade 0): 660,000 yuan/mt, down 120,000 yuan/mt from the previous round of quotes. The Ganzhou Tungsten Association released its forecast average prices of tungsten products for July 2026, with 55% wolframite concentrates at 448,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 57,000 yuan/mt from June; APT at 660,000 yuan/mt, down 100,000 yuan/mt from June; and medium-grain tungsten powder at 1,100 yuan/kg, down 200 yuan/kg from June. Wolframite Concentrates Fall 13.93% in Less Than a Month According to SMM quotes, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on July 7 was 453,000-455,000 yuan/standard tonne, with an average price of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 3.61% from the previous trading day. Looking back at the short-term trend, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to a previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in early-to-mid June, weak downstream demand, together with the fact that raw material inventory accumulated from earlier concentrated enterprise stockpiling was still in the digestion cycle, weakened market support, and tungsten prices began a general weak downward adjustment from June 17. Compared with the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the average price of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne on July 7 represents a decline of 73,500 yuan/standard tonne in less than a month, a drop of 13.93%. Taking a longer-term perspective, entering July, the average price trend of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) so far this year has been a dramatic roller coaster. Supported by tight raw material supply at the start of the year, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) began at 453,500 yuan/standard tonne on January 5, before surging to a historic high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne on March 13. At such high prices, market caution and fear of high prices gradually intensified, and coupled with limited acceptance from end-use demand, tungsten prices embarked on an overall downward trajectory, ultimately falling to an intra-year low of 400,500 yuan/standard tonne on May 25. After a deep correction in the preceding period, the market had a demand for an oversold recovery. This, combined with the concentrated release of phased restocking demand, saw tungsten prices start a rebound recovery from May 27, rising to 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 10. A comparison of two complete downward cycles so far this year reveals that the first round of correction after the initial-year surge featured a wider range of fluctuation, while the current correction, which began in mid-June, has seen a narrower overall downward magnitude relative to the previous correction. Synthesizing key price periods, it is clear that the wolframite concentrates market has experienced a large magnitude of fluctuations and prominent volatile characteristics this year. Outlook Looking ahead, in the short term, July marks the entry into the traditional off-season for downstream consumption. Purchasing willingness from cemented carbide and mechanical processing enterprises is weak, and market demand is performing mediocrely. However, circulating supply of high-grade tungsten ore is relatively scarce. With bullish and bearish factors checking each other, tungsten prices are expected to maintain narrow sideways consolidation. The pace of improvement on the downstream demand side remains a key focus going forward. In the medium and long term, domestic regulation on primary tungsten mining is continuously tightening, rigid demand support exists from the cemented carbide sector, and the scale of net tungsten product exports is growing steadily, leaving a supply-demand gap for the element tungsten throughout the year. In Q3, the insufficient alignment of mining indicators will create expectations of tightening on the raw material supply side, while the traditional "September-October peak season" is expected to drive a recovery in enterprise restocking demand. Simultaneously, rigid demand in military, high-end equipment, and new energy sectors continues to expand, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets is also expected to continuously boost export orders. Multiple favorable factors provide strong support for the medium and long-term central price range of tungsten. However, vigilance is needed regarding the risk of rapid market rises squeezing downstream processing enterprises' profits, which could force end-user production cuts and create negative feedback. Overall, the tungsten market is expected to follow a mild and orderly upward trajectory thereafter. Recommended Reading:

In June, global scrap tungsten markets diverged. India followed China's tungsten price rally, with active trading and higher prices in mid-June before cooling as China softened. Europe saw low-level consolidation due to high speculative inventories, but prices began to edge up in late June as stocks cleared. China's tungsten market experienced a sharp rebound followed by a pullback, and is expected to consolidate in the near term, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals remain solid.

[Tungsten Flash] SMM, July 1: The tungsten market mainly saw weak consolidation today. Trading volume at the mine side contracted, downstream smelters had few orders, and with inventories at high levels, enterprises mostly purchased tungsten concentrates and recycled raw materials as needed. Some traders mainly pushed for lower prices. The negotiation center for spot orders of 55% tungsten concentrates was around 440,000-460,000 yuan per standard tonne. SMM 65% tungsten concentrates closed at 491,000 yuan per standard tonne today, down 10,000 yuan per standard tonne from yesterday, but still up 56,500 yuan per standard tonne from early June. Going forward, key focus will be on mine tender transactions and the new round of long-term contract information.

On June 29, Xiamen Tungsten's share price declined. As of around 14:04 on the 29th, it had fallen 1.22% to 83.47 yuan per share. In terms of news, an announcement from Xiamen Tungsten on June 27 showed: To concentrate resources and focus on developing its three core businesses—tungsten & molybdenum, new energy materials, and rare earths— the company has decided to exit the real estate business. To gradually achieve this exit, Xiamen Tengwangge plans to publicly list for transfer, in the name of its partner Jianming, the unsold properties from Phases I through IV of the Straits International Community project and certain fixed assets within the Phase II commercial properties on the Fujian Provincial Property Rights Exchange, with a reserve price of 192 million yuan (RMB, the same hereinafter). The Straits International Community project (i.e., the commercial housing project on the north side of the Xiamen International Conference & Exhibition Center) was developed under Jianming's name, with related assets registered under Jianming. Through relevant cooperation agreements, Xiamen Tengwangge holds a 67.285% interest in the project, while Jianming holds a 32.715% interest. Commenting on the transaction’s impact, Xiamen Tungsten stated that this transaction is an optimization and adjustment of the company's resource allocation and asset structure based on its strategic development plans. It will help the company further focus on its core businesses and aligns with its long-term strategic planning. The transaction does not harm the interests of the company and its shareholders, particularly minority shareholders. As this is a listed transfer, whether the transaction will ultimately be completed and the final transaction price remain uncertain, and the impact on company performance is subject to change. It will be determined based on actual completion, and currently cannot be estimated. Performance: Xiamen Tungsten’s 2025 annual report shows that for 2025, the company achieved consolidated operating revenue of 46.265 billion yuan, up 30.79% YoY, and consolidated operating costs of 37.984 billion yuan, up 31.07% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company reached 2.309 billion yuan, up 34.89% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.19 billion yuan, up 44.16% YoY. The revenue and profit of its tungsten & molybdenum, energy new materials, and rare earth businesses all registered solid growth. Market shares for its major competitive products—such as tungsten powder, fine tungsten wire, cemented carbide rods, ammonium molybdate, and LCO—remained at the forefront, while profitability of key products, including cemented carbide, cutting tools, fine tungsten wire, magnetic materials, and LCO, further improved. Regarding its main business, Xiamen Tungsten stated that the company focuses on its three core industries: tungsten & molybdenum, rare earths, and energy new materials. Leveraging deep technological expertise and a strong management culture, the company continuously pursues technological and management innovations. It steadily advances its industrial layout in tungsten, molybdenum, rare earths, and lithium battery cathode materials, actively expanding its tungsten & molybdenum deep-processing, rare earth deep-processing, and energy new materials industries, and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of its industry chain. Regarding the business plan, Xiamen Tungsten stated in its annual report: Overall annual work approach: The company will fully implement the guiding principles of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, take the 15th Five-Year Plan as its guide, and embark on a transformation toward "Industrial Services" and "Digital Operations"; pursue internationalization, digitalization, and product-as-a-service while advancing both organic growth and external expansion; promote organizational change and talent development; strengthen industry chain synergy and global footprint; upgrade value across the entire chain covering R&D, production, sales, procurement, and investment; enhance functional management efficiency and risk control, consolidate the foundation for development, and ensure that transformation tasks are implemented effectively. Overall annual target: In 2026, the company plans to achieve YoY growth in operating revenue and total profit. To achieve the above business targets, the company will focus on the following key tasks: 1. Advance the comprehensive development of core businesses. In the tungsten sector, the emphasis is on strengthening resource security, driving the transformation of cemented carbide, cutting tools, and rock drilling tools toward high-end and service-oriented offerings, consolidating the advantages of PV tungsten wire and other products, and incubating new products. In the molybdenum sector, the focus is on raising smelting capacity and powder quality, maintaining the gross margin of wire-cut molybdenum wire, and expanding the market share of molybdenum end-cap assemblies and molybdenum discs. In the rare earth sector, the company will expand overseas raw material sources, scale up the fine chemicals, luminescent materials, alloys, and magnetic materials businesses, accelerate new base construction and overseas deployment, increase R&D investment in motor products, and expand into high-end market segments such as equipment manufacturing. In the energy new materials sector, the company will strengthen supply chain cooperation, expand production of core materials, promote the industrialisation of cutting-edge technologies, and accelerate overseas project construction. 2. Strengthen mine resource security. Stabilize domestic mine operations, with a focus on overcoming challenges such as declining grades and rising costs at operating mines; accelerate the development of new mines, promote the injection of the Dahutang tungsten mine, and advance infrastructure construction at the Bobai tungsten mine in Guangxi in an orderly manner. Promote overseas mine projects, conduct preliminary research on mine planning, develop a global map of non-ferrous metals relevant to Xiamen Tungsten's businesses, explore multiple modes of resource acquisition, and study the boundary conditions and rules for engaging in other strategic metals. 3. Strengthen and supplement chains through global layout. Prioritize deep processing capacity construction projects for tungsten-molybdenum, rare earth, and energy new materials, accelerate overseas industrial deployment, and enhance the coverage of the global manufacturing network. Advance M&A projects in and outside China, deploy functional components and devices related to strategic emerging industry chains, and leverage industrial funds to invest along the upstream and downstream of the company's current and future industries. Promote capital operations of subsidiaries and the disposal of non-performing assets and equity stakes to enhance asset operation efficiency. 4. Pilot the transformation to "Industrial Services" and "Digital Operations". 5. Solidify the Five Pillars for Value Chain Value Enhancement. 6. Deepen the Safe Production and Green Manufacturing System. 7. Annual Function Enhancement and Safeguard Measures. Xiamen Tungsten previously disclosed in its Q1 2026 report that in Q1, the company achieved total operating revenue of 15.743 billion yuan, up 86.99% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 1.107 billion yuan, up 189.14% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the performance change, Xiamen Tungsten explained in its Q1 report that during the reporting period, the company actively responded to rising prices of major raw materials such as tungsten and cobalt, achieving effective linked increases in selling prices of main products across all segments of the industry chain, while sales of key products including cemented carbides, cutting tools, battery materials, and magnetic materials grew steadily, leading to a significant improvement in overall profitability. Xiamen Tungsten introduced: During the reporting period, the company focused on its core manufacturing business and operated steadily. The main highlights were as follows: 1. Tungsten and Molybdenum Business. In Q1 2026, the tungsten and molybdenum business achieved operating revenue of 7.321 billion yuan, up 83.13% YoY, and total profit of 1.763 billion yuan, up 238.82% YoY. The company proactively responded to the sharp rise in tungsten raw material prices, dynamically adjusted its business strategy, and achieved effective linked increases in selling prices of main products throughout the industry chain, significantly enhancing profitability. Among major products, cemented carbide product sales increased 5% YoY, with sales revenue up 156% YoY; cutting tool product sales grew 69% YoY, with sales revenue up 78% YoY; and fine tungsten wire, due to product mix adjustments, saw a 19% YoY decline in sales volume but a 73% YoY increase in sales revenue. 2. Energy New Materials Business. In Q1 2026, the battery materials business achieved operating revenue of 6.585 billion yuan, up 117.82% YoY, and total profit of 260 million yuan, up 94.24% YoY. The company continuously improved product quality and market development, achieving substantial growth in sales of main products and a significant boost in profitability. In Q1, sales of the company’s power battery cathode materials (including ternary cathode materials, LFP, and others) reached 15,700 mt, up 26% YoY, with sales revenue up 82% YoY; LCO sales volume was 14,700 mt, up 20% YoY, with sales revenue up 154% YoY. 3. Rare Earth Business. In Q1 2026, the rare earth business achieved operating revenue of 1.826 billion yuan, up 31.68% YoY, and total profit of 70 million yuan, up 65.72% YoY. The company optimized its product mix, achieving volume and profit growth for high-value-added products, effectively enhancing profitability. Sales of the main deep-processing product, magnetic materials, rose by 24% YoY, with sales revenue up 50% YoY. 4. Real estate business. In Q1 2026, the real estate business reported revenue of 10 million yuan, down 8.08% YoY, while total profit was -19 million yuan, narrowing losses slightly YoY. Tungsten: Looking back at the 2025 tungsten price trend, taking SMM wolframite concentrates (≥65%) as an example: The average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on December 31, 2025, was 453,500 yuan/standard tonne, up 217.69% compared with 142,750 yuan/standard tonne on December 31, 2024. Reviewing Q1 this year, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on March 31 was 992,500 yuan/standard tonne, surging by 539,000 yuan/standard tonne from the 453,500 yuan/standard tonne on December 31, 2025, representing a gain of 118.85%. After the earlier sustained rebound, wolframite concentrates returned to 500,000 yuan/standard tonne and then moved sideways. On June 29, the average price of wolframite concentrates was 507,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 0.98% from the previous trading day. Fundamentals side: Supply-demand wise, upstream mines still hold prices firm, and high-grade tungsten ore supply remains tight. Downstream, affected by the traditional off-season, cemented carbide and mechanical processing enterprises maintain hand-to-mouth restocking, leaving overall market transactions subdued. In the short term, supply and demand remain in a tug-of-war. Outside China, with increasingly stringent export controls and tight primary tungsten supply, European APT prices continue to fluctuate at highs. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets remains large, providing some support for domestic tungsten prices. Meanwhile, tax policies related to the tungsten scrap recycling sector are being further refined, expected to boost compliant tungsten scrap circulation. This will, in the medium and long term, promote standardized development of the recycled tungsten industry and improve China’s tungsten resource supply structure . The domestic tungsten market is expected to mainly consolidate in the short term, with focus on long-term contract price adjustments, pace of mine shipments, changes in downstream off-season demand, and the impact of overseas export policies on market sentiment. Over the medium and long term, attention should be paid to declining supply during the seasonal mine output gap in Q3, while improving consumption expectations during the September-October peak season will further optimize the supply-demand structure, bringing bullish sentiment to prices. Recommended reading: