Refined Cobalt: Spot refined cobalt prices hovered at lows this week. Supply side, the firm-pricing sentiment persisted, with mainstream smelters holding ex-factory quotes steady and traders maintaining spot-futures price spreads at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises saw weak orders and adopted a cautious purchasing stance, mostly procuring in small batches at high frequency to control inventory risks. However, after prices stabilized at low levels, some enterprises turned bullish on the outlook, and restocking willingness improved. In the short term, weak demand continued to weigh on prices, but high raw material costs and the reverse price spread provided strong floor support. Prices were expected to remain range-bound; as demand recovers going forward, refined cobalt still has upside room. Cobalt Intermediate Products: Cobalt intermediate product prices held up well this week, with spot quotes edging up gradually. Supply side, suppliers showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and some miners also participated in market purchases, further intensifying the tight spot supply situation. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness recovered somewhat, but as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up, enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach with inquiries, and actual transactions were limited. It was learned that DRC export volumes in March increased significantly, but most cargoes currently remained stranded at South African ports or in transit by land, with a low proportion having secured vessel bookings. Concentrated arrivals at ports were not expected until June–July. As downstream orders gradually materialize and restocking demand is released going forward, cobalt intermediate product prices still have upward momentum. Cobalt Sulphate: The cobalt sulphate market saw sluggish trading activity this week, with prices continuing a gradual downward trend. Supply side, mainstream smelters lowered quotes to 94,000-97,000 yuan/mt; some recycling enterprises and traders, under cash flow pressure, made concessions on shipments, with low-quality cargo prices staying at 90,000-93,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream orders remained uncertain, compounded by top-tier enterprises having ample inventory and low-priced cargo dampening purchase sentiment, resulting in overall weak restocking willingness downstream, with only small volumes of low-priced resources procured on an as-needed basis. Cost side, cobalt intermediate product prices rose, and Indonesia's nickel tax policy pushed up smelting costs, significantly weakening enterprises' willingness to cut prices; meanwhile, some downstream players believed prices were already at low levels and their own inventory was approaching safety margins, generating restocking willingness. Cobalt sulphate prices may gradually stabilize, and once procurement demand recovers, prices are expected to see a corrective rebound.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Supply Shortages Outside China Supported Prices to Hold Up Well, China Focused on the Turning Point of Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory]

[Weekly Review of Aluminum Scrap and Secondary Aluminum]Rising Primary Aluminum Prices Push Up Costs, While Weak Supply and Demand Constrain Secondary Aluminum Gains

Looking ahead, few additional maintenance shutdowns are scheduled for mid-to-late April, and steel mill production is expected to fluctuate around 3.23 million mt. On the demand side. On other fronts, cost trends have strengthened recently. Hot-rolled coil prices are expected to hold up well, tracking costs, with attention on the 3,350 level on the upside for the most-traded contract. Considering that further price gains would require additional bullish stimulus from external or fundamental factors, a breakout above 3,350 is expected to be difficult.

Based on on-site visits to the 2026 China Hydrogen Energy Exhibition and International Hydrogen Energy Conference, the most intuitive impression of this edition was that the industry as a whole is cooling down. Although the exhibition quality was moderate, enterprise participation and novelty were noticeably inferior to previous editions. In the hydrogen production sector, top-tier enterprises such as Sungrow Hydrogen, LONGi Hydrogen, and CRRC ZELC attended to hold up the show, while a number of mainstream industry players including LuDao Hydrogen, CSSC Peric, and MingYang Hydrogen did not exhibit. Fuel cell enterprises were almost entirely absent, with most having shifted to the FCVC exhibition in Shanghai. The exhibitors were still dominated by general parts enterprises such as valves, instruments, gaskets, and compressors, while core parts enterprises showed very low willingness to participate. The reasons were quite practical: on one hand, over 30% of hydrogen production enterprises make their own electrodes and separators, and the remaining enterprises have long established fixed partnerships with parts suppliers. Exhibitions can hardly bring in new clients and offer poor cost-effectiveness, so there were many familiar faces and few new enterprises on site. Instead, non-ferrous material enterprises such as Guiyan, Heraeus, Baoti, and Beikuang New Materials appeared in clusters, becoming the most noteworthy new change at this exhibition. Market differentiation in the hydrogen production segment has become very clear, with involution in China and going global becoming the mainstream choice for enterprises. Alkaline electrolysers face fierce price competition in China, with the price spread versus PEM continuing to widen. Medium-sized and larger enterprises have generally turned their attention to markets outside China, where export prices for MW-scale hydrogen production systems are considerable, along with export tax rebate policies. To meet European local content requirements, small and medium-sized enterprises mostly partner with local dealers, while top-tier enterprises are planning to build factories directly in Europe. Quite a few PEM electrolyser enterprises exhibited, but products were mainly small-scale units, primarily targeting metal refineries and small and medium-sized chemical enterprises. The biggest obstacle to promotion is ambiguous policy positioning — hydrogen is both an energy source and a hazardous chemical, and new equipment must go through approval and filing. Some local governments and enterprises show slightly lower enthusiasm due to safety and efficiency considerations. At this exhibition, the AEM technology route clearly gained momentum, with both equipment and parts enterprises increasing their deployment and technical exchanges becoming more open. However, the core issue remains the relatively short membrane lifespan, far below that of alkaline and PEM electrolysers. Meanwhile, the closed landscape of PEM core parts is being broken. Electrodes, membranes, and other components that enterprises previously kept for internal use are now being sold on the retail market, and the degree of marketisation across the industry chain is increasing. The convergence of non-ferrous materials and hydrogen energy is rapidly increasing, which is the most practically valuable signal from this exhibition. Enterprises such as Heraeus and Guiyan are concentrated in the PEM electrolyser catalyst field, Baoti's titanium materials are mainly used for bipolar plates, and nickel is a key material for alkaline electrolysers, extensively used in electrode plates, separator frames, and bipolar plates. Currently, catalyst enterprises are essentially all pursuing an integrated route of raw materials, compounds, and catalysts, while also supporting recycling operations. Small platinum group metal enterprises are also extending toward end-users, with a clear trend of full-chain deployment. By contrast, gas companies were almost absent from this exhibition, perhaps because metal powder users went to the powder metallurgy exhibition in Shanghai during the same period. There was some enterprise participation in the methanol-hydrogen blending and natural gas-hydrogen blending directions, with economic viability being more prominent in high natural gas price areas in south China, while promotion potential is relatively limited in the north where natural gas prices are more advantageous. Interest in hydrogen storage and transportation, refuelling, and fuel cell sectors continued to decline, with top-tier enterprises largely absent. Attention to hydrogen fuel cells fell far short of hydrogen production, and hydrogen production itself is also cooling down. Based on enterprise feedback on the 15th Five-Year Plan subsidy policies, subsidy resources are mainly concentrated in demonstration projects, infrastructure, and hydrogen transportation, with no direct subsidies for equipment manufacturing enterprises, which can only seek support through technological innovation and project applications. Cut-throat competition is expected to continue further. Overall, the current hydrogen energy industry has not broken out of its existing landscape. AEM is beginning to move toward marketisation, PEM remains focused on small batches and small-scale units, large alkaline electrolysers still rely on demonstration projects, and SOFC is also progressing gradually. As core parts become more open and market price signals become clearer, the industry is shifting from past expansion and momentum-building toward substantive implementation and deep cultivation. Future opportunities are more concentrated in the localisation of materials, marketisation of core parts, and expansion into markets outside China.

The second-life application battery cell market operated in a mediocre manner overall this week, with no significant improvement in market conditions. Cost side, lithium carbonate prices rose, nickel sulphate edged up in tandem, and cobalt sulphate pulled back slightly. Under divergent raw material trends, overall cost support remained relatively stable. Supply side, battery cell enterprises maintained a steady shipments pace, with no notable increase or decrease in market supply. Demand side, structural differentiation was significant: energy storage remained the core driver, with tight supply of mainstream models such as 314Ah and 280Ah, but the price uptrend had clearly slowed down; B-grade battery cells, constrained by higher procurement standards and compliance requirements, struggled to enter the mainstream market, with prices remaining stable. The small power market was significantly impacted by the "Interim Measures for the Recovery and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles" implemented on April 1. The new regulation explicitly prohibits the use of waste power batteries in e-bike and other sectors, creating a temporary gap in previously applicable scenarios. Currently, stable prices in the small power sector were not supported by demand but mainly because lithium, nickel, and cobalt salt prices remained at elevated levels, leaving enterprises limited room for price concessions, with strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Magnesium Market Pulled Back on Weakness, Export Prices Rose Against the Trend on Policy Impact] The magnesium market was overall in the doldrums this week. Magnesium ingot quotes in major producing areas fell 350 yuan/mt WoW to 17,000-17,150 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, and panic selling accelerated the price decline, with the market entering a phase of rational pullback. Export side, affected by tightened customs supervision on non-compliant exports and dual-use items, FOB quotes rose against the trend by $50/mt on Thursday to $2,500-2,600/mt, with domestic and overseas market trends clearly diverging. Magnesium powder and magnesium alloy prices pulled back along with raw materials, while processing fees remained stable, and the market overall showed strong supply and weak demand. Magnesium prices are expected to see gradually narrowing declines in the short term, with subsequent attention needed on changes in export policies and downstream purchase willingness.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum alloy futures closed up 1.64% overnight as bullish sentiment heated up] The aluminum alloy 2606 contract opened at 23,755 yuan/mt overnight and closed sharply higher at 24,130 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the night session, prices moved sideways around the opening level with a steady trend. Mid-session, bulls pushed prices up rapidly, driving futures to the intraday high of 24,200 yuan/mt. Prices then pulled back slightly and consolidated, running above the intraday VWAP throughout the session, indicating a solid bullish structure.

The World Steel Association released its short-term steel demand forecast report for 2026-2027 on April 14, projecting that global steel demand is expected to increase marginally by 0.3% to 1.724 billion mt in 2026, with demand accelerating by 2.2% to 1.762 billion mt in 2027. The chairman stated: "The latest forecast results validate the trends we projected in our report released in October 2025, confirming that global steel demand is bottoming out during 2025-2026. Previously, since 2022, global structural adjustment went through a prolonged and challenging phase that suppressed steel demand. We are now transitioning to a mild growth trajectory in 2026, with more pronounced accelerated growth expected in 2027."

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Ingot Market Rebounded Over 4%, Spot Struggled to Catch Up with Premiums Narrowing] SMM reported on April 15 that, boosted by expectations of US-Iran peace talks, silver T+D rose over 4%. However, the spot market struggled to catch up, with transactions mostly at parity, and sluggish trading continued.