[April China TCs Expected to Face Resistance to Further Gains, Pending the Conclusion of Follow-up Negotiations]: Weekly data showed that the average weekly SMM Zn50 domestic TC held flat at 1,550 yuan/mt in metal content, while the SMM imported zinc concentrates index fell $7.51/dmt MoM to -$2.28/dmt...

On March 13, 2026, China's copper smelting industry set a new historical record. According to SMM data, the imported copper concentrate index closed at -60.39 USD/dmt, officially breaking through the -60 USD level.

The imported ore market continues to trend toward being nominal with limited actual transactions, and the availability of circulating supply remains relatively tight. In the domestic ore trading market, several domestic mines have completed advance sales of their Q4 production and concluded transactions. Smelters in regions such as Henan and Inner Mongolia have seen limited growth in raw material inventories, while winter stockpiling continues. The disparity in treatment charges (TCs) between the north and south remains significant. Post-National Day holiday, the ore trading market has yet to become active. As temperatures drop, production supply from some mines may gradually decline. However, smelters, buoyed by rising precious metal prices, maintain high production enthusiasm. Mines and smelters are adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach toward the recent sharp increase in silver prices, with some market traders concerned about significant volatility in silver prices. There are no signs of an increase in the payable indicator for silver contained in lead concentrates at the moment.

[SMM Analysis: Raw Material Supply Continues to Decline, Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Slide]: According to processing data from SMM's in-depth market survey, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, have declined to relatively low levels, with a combined operating rate of 47.05%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained unchanged from the previous week. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi dropped significantly, remaining consistently lower than that in Yunnan and declining by approximately 35 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Several smelters began halting production for maintenance this month to alleviate the tight supply of scrap. The rising cost of scrap recycling, coupled with the decline in tin concentrate TCs, has driven up production costs for enterprises, eroding the profits of secondary tin smelting. Meanwhile, considering the stalled production resumptions in the Wa region of Myanmar, combined with the impact of the rainy season on transportation, tin ore imports from the Wa region are expected to continue declining this month. Additionally, due to transportation bans imposed by relevant Thai authorities in southern Myanmar, tin ore supply will be reduced by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). In summary, given the decline in the supply of tin ore and scrap, smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are likely to maintain low operating levels or continue to experience a downward trend in the coming weeks.

[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Decline, with Supply from Myanmar Continuing to Shrink]: According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 53.86%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan continued to decline compared to the previous week and was nearly 10 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. The treatment charges (TCs) for tin concentrates with a 40% grade remained at historically low levels, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi was only 40.19%, consistently lower than that in Yunnan and down by approximately 15 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap supply, with some capacities potentially exiting the market permanently. The reduction in scrap sources and the dual squeeze on costs have led to an increase in scrap recycling costs combined with a decline in tin concentrate TCs, driving up production costs for enterprises and undermining the profitability of refined tin recycling from scrap. According to sources, relevant Thai authorities have decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting from June 4. SMM understands that approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) of tin ore is transported from southern Myanmar to Thailand each month for transit into China. The Thai authorities' ban is expected to affect the transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar in June.

In Q1, supported by the tight global supply of copper concentrates, the center of copper prices shifted significantly higher YoY, with the most-traded contract climbing to a historical high of RMB 83,320/mt.

At the beginning of April, SHFE tin prices fell sharply under pressure due to the escalation of trade conflicts. However, as tariffs were suspended, tin prices rebounded, recovering previous losses and returning to levels before the supply disruptions of tin ore in the DRC. Nevertheless, the market reacted strongly to rumors last week about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region, causing tin prices to break through support levels and continue to weaken at the beginning of this week, with the most-traded contract falling below the 250,000 mt threshold. Currently, these market rumors remain unverified. According to SMM, few enterprises are paying fees to obtain mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and most major mining traders have not paid management fees. Moreover, the current inspections at the China-Myanmar border are stringent, and the entry procedures for most large-scale equipment and relevant mining personnel are complex. Therefore, the current pace of production resumptions in the Wa region may fall short of market expectations. So, does the current tin price still have the momentum to continue declining? Tight Actual Supply of Tin Ore, with Increasing Expectations for Future Increases In recent years, speculation on SHFE tin has mainly revolved around supply, as tin is a relatively scarce metal with limited content in the Earth's crust and a high degree of supply concentration, primarily distributed in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Australia, and other regions. After Myanmar suspended tin ore mining on August 1, 2023, global tin resources have been in a relatively tight supply situation. Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to supply-side information, with any slight changes triggering significant market fluctuations. In the early stages of Myanmar's mining ban, China's tin ore imports remained at a relatively high level due to the availability of ore inventory for export. However, as inventory was depleted, China's tin ore imports plummeted from Q2 last year, and the issue of tight domestic tin ore supply has become increasingly prominent. During this period, Chinese enterprises actively sought alternative resources from other countries. However, due to limited global new tin ore discoveries in recent years, the tight resource situation has not been alleviated. Among them, the Bisie mine, owned by Alphamin in the DRC, is the largest mine in Africa and the third largest globally. The mine has two projects: the Mpama North project operates steadily, while the Mpama South project commenced production on May 17 last year, making it the largest among the newly commissioned projects last year. Tin ore from the DRC has also become an important source of tin ore imports for China, currently accounting for about 30%. Production at the Alphamin mine was suspended for over a month in March due to local armed conflicts but gradually resumed in early April. The production interruption at the Alphamin mine, which only recovered about 1,290 mt of tin metal, may result in a supply gap of approximately 2,000-3,000 mt. Currently, Alphamin has revised its tin production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year downward from 20,000 mt to 17,500 mt. Since the beginning of this year, the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar has gradually been put on the agenda. On February 26, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration issued the document "Procedures for Applying for Mining, Beneficiation Plant, and Prospecting Licenses," which explicitly stipulated the process for applying for licenses in mining areas. On the morning of April 23, 2025, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration held a special symposium on the resumption of production at the Mansang mine. The meeting announced relevant documents and clarified the work procedures. However, after the symposium, the authorities had not yet issued a clear signal for a full resumption of production. On May 27, market news emerged that the first batch of tin ore from Myanmar's Wa State had reportedly obtained export licenses, but the authenticity of the rumors was questionable. Even if production resumption were confirmed, the first batch of tin ore would not enter the market until at least the end of June. Currently, tin ore supply is tight, and domestic tin concentrate treatment charges (TCs) remain at historically low levels. As of May 30, the tin concentrate TC for 40% grade ore in Yunnan was 11,000 yuan/mt, and for 60% grade ore in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Hunan was also 11,000 yuan/mt, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. The shortage of raw material supply has affected the production of smelters. According to SMM data based on market-adjusted processing figures, in May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% MoM and 11.24% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrate and scrap tin supply chains has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate of domestic smelters. As of May 30, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at low levels, with a combined operating rate of 54.58%. Regionally, in Yunnan, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressures are intertwined. Raw material inventories at Yunnan smelters are generally below 30 days, with some enterprises facing inventory backlogs due to high-priced stockpiling in the early period. However, weak downstream demand has made it difficult to sell goods, resulting in sluggish spot premium transactions. Some smelters in core production areas such as Gejiu have entered seasonal maintenance or production cuts due to raw material shortages and cost pressures. In Jiangxi, since the beginning of the year, the local scrap tin recycling volume has consistently been below 70% of the annual average, mainly due to the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese electronics, leading to a contraction in solder export orders and a reduction in scrap sources. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap, with some capacity potentially exiting the market permanently. In Inner Mongolia, production slightly rebounded in May due to production issues at captive mines, but it has not yet returned to previous levels. Production areas such as Anhui have continued to experience operating rates below expectations due to shortages of scrap and tin concentrates. Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production is expected to decrease by 4.58% MoM in June, with some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning to halt production for maintenance. Overall, tin ore supply in June is unlikely to see significant recovery. However, the period of the tightest global tin supply is about to pass, and the market will enter a verification phase for the improvement of the supply-demand gap. Close attention should be paid to the return of tin ore from Africa and the resumption progress of tin ore production in Myanmar. There is a lack of significant incremental demand in the downstream sector. Global semiconductor sales exhibit cyclical changes. The current semiconductor cycle bottomed out in February 2023, with YoY growth in sales turning positive in November 2023. Since then, the growth rate has been climbing, but it gradually slowed down after October 2024. Currently, the absolute amount of global semiconductor sales remains at a high level. Sales began to pull back slightly from December 2024 and saw a slight MoM rebound in March 2025. This global semiconductor cycle is driven by AI computing power construction, primarily in advanced manufacturing processes. Therefore, the core beneficiaries are concentrated overseas, while domestic capacity is mainly in mature manufacturing processes, offering limited impetus. The downstream semiconductor industries in China are more concentrated in areas such as consumer electronics and automotive. From January to April 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments reached 94.708 million units, up 3.5% YoY. Overall, China's policy subsidies have further boosted market consumption, and the Chinese smartphone industry has shown steady growth from January to April 2025. The recent 618 shopping festival has already kicked off and is expected to support stable end-use consumption electronics. However, the market is expected to gradually enter the off-season for demand in July and August. Enterprises may slow down their stockpiling pace, and it is anticipated that downstream demand for raw materials such as tin will also drop back slightly. Whether there will be an outperformance in demand this year remains to be seen, depending on whether AI blockbuster products emerge in the consumer electronics sector. In recent years, the new demand for tin solder has mainly been reflected in PV solder, currently accounting for over 10%. According to data released by the National Energy Administration, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy from January to April 2025 was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY. The significant growth in new PV installed capacity is primarily driven by the installation rush driven by policy timelines. In January 2025, the National Energy Administration issued the "Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed PV Power Generation," clarifying that April 30, 2025, is the demarcation point for the implementation of new and old policies. Existing projects that completed their filings before this date will still enjoy the original subsidy and grid connection policies, while new projects will fully implement market-based rules thereafter. On February 9, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy." Starting from May 31, 2025, incremental distributed PV projects will fully enter the market. All new projects will, in principle, have their entire electricity output traded in the power market, with electricity prices formed through market bidding, and subsidies will completely exit the historical stage. Meanwhile, a "price settlement mechanism for the sustainable development of new energy," namely, a "refund for excess, supplement for shortfall" differential settlement mechanism, has been established to stabilize revenue expectations. To capitalize on the two major policy periods of "430" and "531," downstream enterprises initiated an installation rush, driving a significant YoY increase in domestic newly installed PV capacity in April. However, projects connected to the grid after May 31, 2025, are required to fully comply with the new regulations. It is expected that the growth rate of PV installation capacity will subsequently slow down, which will also drag down the demand for tin. Meanwhile, market consumption in traditional sectors such as tinplate and PVC heat stabilizers remains stable. Downstream enterprises are highly sensitive to price changes. Recently, with the decline in tin prices, market sentiment for stockpiling has improved, and downstream procurement demand has rebounded. However, finished product inventories in some markets remain at relatively high levels, ultimately limiting the boost to raw material procurement by downstream enterprises driven by growth in end-user market demand. Overall, the increase in tin concentrates in June is expected to be relatively limited, so the supply will remain slightly tight in the short term. However, the supply of raw materials is expected to gradually improve, and the market will subsequently enter a verification period for the improvement of the supply-demand gap. Close attention should be paid to the return of tin ore from Africa and the production resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar. On the demand side, the market is about to enter the off-season, with weak expectations for demand growth, making it difficult to effectively boost tin prices. Therefore, in the short term, under the expectation of increased supply, there may be downward pressure on the central tendency of the market, but constrained by the current situation where the shortage of tin ore has not significantly eased, market trends may fluctuate. However, from a long-term perspective, the AI industry cycle has not yet ended. If there is a surge in demand from AI end-users, it is expected to significantly drive up tin demand. At that time, the growth rate of supply may lag behind the resilience of demand, and the downside room for tin prices in the medium and long term will be limited. Nevertheless, there is still uncertainty in current trade policies, and caution should be exercised against significant disruptions to tin prices caused by macro factors. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

In recent weeks, there has been intense debate about the outlook for the copper market in the second half (H2) of 2025.

Weak supply and demand in fundamentals, short-term fluctuations in tin prices, "waiting for the wind" - macro factors may become the key to breaking the deadlock!

SMM News on May 13: As Alphamin announced the phased production resumption at the Bisie mine and the successful convening of the Myanmar tin mine production resumption meeting, market expectations for a tight future supply of tin ore have improved. However, concerns over uncertainties in global economic growth and demand prospects triggered by tariffs have also weighed on tin prices. Coupled with a significant decline in market risk appetite, tin prices, which hit a new high in early April, have since seen a notable correction. Ultimately, LME tin fell 14.46% in April, while SHFE tin dropped 9.03% in the same month. After the sharp decline in April, since entering May, except for notable fluctuations in LME tin during the first two trading days of the month, both LME tin and SHFE tin have mainly fluctuated rangebound. As of around 15:37 on May 13, LME tin was down 0.09%, trading at $32,545/mt, with its monthly line for May temporarily up 3.83%; SHFE tin was up 0.37%, trading at 262,070 yuan/mt, with its monthly line for May temporarily up 0.1%. 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard On the spot market Tin spot prices fell % in April 》View SMM Tin Spot Quotes 》Subscribe to view SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices In terms of tin spot prices: According to SMM quotes, the average price of SMM Grade 1 tin spot on March 31 was 282,200 yuan/mt, while on April 30, it was 261,200 yuan/mt. Over the course of a month, the average price fell by 21,000 yuan/mt, representing a 7.44% decline in April. Since entering May, tin spot prices have fluctuated, with the average price of SMM Grade 1 tin spot on May 13 being 262,100 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 900 yuan/mt compared to the average price of 261,200 yuan/mt on April 30, marking a 0.34% rise. Fundamentals Refined tin production in April declined both MoM and YoY Production: According to SMM data based on market exchange processing, in April 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.52% MoM and fell by 8.13% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrates and scrap tin supply chains has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate. Yunnan production area: There is significant pressure on the raw material side, with Myanmar ore imports remaining below the 10,000 mt physical tonne warning line for several consecutive months. The tin concentrates treatment charge (TC) has remained at historically low levels, putting pressure on smelter profits and limiting production enthusiasm. Production resumption status: In April, the capacity utilisation rate rebounded slightly, but due to the impact of the production halt at the Bisie tin mine in the DRC (accounting for 6% of global supply) and the extended preparation period for production resumption in Myanmar, the raw material shortage has intensified, and the operating rate remains below the level of Q4 2024.​Jiangxi Production Region: Relying on the scrap tin recycling system, the recycling volume of scrap tin declined after the Lunar New Year. Coupled with the decrease in processing fees, the production costs of smelters in the Jiangxi region continued to rise, leading some smelters to gradually cut production, making it difficult to restore previous production levels in the future.​Inner Mongolia Production Region: Affected by its own mine production, production was hindered in April, resulting in a slight decline in output.​Anhui and Emerging Production Regions: Affected by the shortage of scrap and tin concentrates, overall production fell short of expectations, and the operating rate declined slightly. 》Click to view details The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low 》Click to access the SMM Tin Industry Chain Database According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of May 9, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 57.16%. Yunnan: The operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan remained low due to a shortage of raw materials, significantly lower than the level in Q4 2024. The imports of tin ore from Myanmar have been below the 5,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. Additionally, the Bisie tin mine in the DRC has not yet fully resumed production. Alphamin Resources Corp. announced a phased resumption of operations at the Bisie mine, emphasizing the gradual return of employees and the stockpiling of sufficient supplies to ensure the continuity of production resumptions. It is expected that the resumption of production will alleviate the supply tightness originally scheduled for Q2 2025, but a full recovery will take several months. Normalization of Low Operating Rates: The operating rates of smelters in Jiangxi remain low, primarily relying on the scrap tin recycling system. Some enterprises have been forced to cut production due to insufficient scrap. Intensified Cost Pressures: The difficulty in recycling scrap tin has increased, coupled with a decrease in processing fees, leading to a continuous rise in production costs for enterprises. Some production capacities may permanently exit the market. Suppressed End-Use Demand: High tin ingot prices have led to weak restocking intentions in the electronics/home appliance industries, causing blockages in the industry chain transmission and further reducing the circulation of scrap. SMM Reports Increase in Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in Three Regions Domestic Social Inventory of Tin Ingots: According to an SMM survey, as of May 9, the total social inventory of tin ingots in the three regions surveyed by SMM was 10,193 mt, an increase of 360 mt compared to the inventory data from the previous trading week. LME Tin Inventory: The LME tin inventory data on March 31 was 3,050 mt, and on April 30, it was 2,755 mt, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory in April. The latest LME tin inventory data on May 13 was 2,790 mt, showing a slight increase compared to April 30. SMM Outlook Macro Aspects: Following the release of the joint statement from the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, market concerns about global trade conflicts have eased, and market risk appetite has rebounded. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of China's total social financing, new RMB loans, and official PMI data for May, as well as US data such as April's CPI, weekly initial jobless claims, April's core PCE price index, and May's PMI on tin prices. Fundamentals: In terms of supply: Based on SMM's estimates, it is expected that with the resumption of production by some enterprises that halted operations for maintenance, refined tin production in May may increase QoQ. Additionally, since the restart of the Bisie tin mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates available for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025. According to SMM, the transportation cycle for tin concentrates from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to Asia typically takes 4-6 weeks. The first batch shipped on May 9 is expected to enter the smelting process in June. In the short term, the spot tin market will still face inventory tightness pressures. However, as the phased resumption of production at the Bisie tin mine progresses, it may curb the speculative sentiment that had been driven by geopolitical risks, thereby suppressing SHFE tin prices. On the demand side: No significant improvement has been observed so far. The spot market remains sluggish due to high tin prices, and it is expected that until new demand drivers emerge, the weak demand situation will continue to exert certain pressure on tin prices. In summary, the favourable macro environment may support tin prices, while the weak supply and demand on the fundamentals side, along with the easing of market expectations for tight supply, have weakened the fundamental support for tin prices. Before significant improvements occur in the tin market's fundamentals, short-term attention should be paid to the guidance of macro trends on tin prices. It is expected that until significant favourable or unfavourable macro factors emerge, tin prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound. Recommended Readings: 》SMM Releases Metal Production Data for April 2025 》Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market Supply and Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025 [SMM Analysis] 》[SMM Analysis] Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Remain Low, with Tight Supply of Raw Materials