Thanks to robust semiconductor demand, South Korea’s June exports are expected to post even stronger growth, with the monthly trade surplus likely to surpass $30 billion for the first time. According to a median forecast from a Wall Street Journal survey of nine economists, exports are expected to grow 57.3% YoY in June, up from a revised 53.4% in May, while imports are projected to rise 23.5% YoY, driving the trade surplus for the month to $32 billion. Seunghoon Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities, said chips and computers are seen as the key drivers of export growth, with the pace of export growth expected to remain above 50% in H2.

Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 5:42 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices have tumbled after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what many investors interpreted as a hawkish debut, but at least one market strategist argues the precious metal's longer-term outlook remains intact. In commentary following Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair, Rebecca Ivaldi, Market Strategist at FCT Capital Partners and former Lehman Brothers analyst, said markets may be overestimating the central bank's willingness to keep monetary policy restrictive and underestimating the structural forces supporting gold demand. The precious metal came under pressure after Warsh repeatedly emphasized the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. During the press conference, Warsh described inflation as a burden on American households and declared that the Federal Open Market Committee was "unambiguous and unanimous" in its determination to restore price stability. However, Ivaldi argues that beneath the hawkish rhetoric were several signals suggesting a less restrictive policy path than markets initially assumed. "The knee-jerk algorithmic reaction to the press conference was exactly what we saw in January right after the news broke that Warsh had been picked -- Hawk in the Fed equals Gold Down," she wrote. "But this short-term speculative reaction is almost entirely irrelevant in my view." One of the key points highlighted by Ivaldi was Warsh's discussion of housing markets. During the press conference, the Fed chair acknowledged that monetary policy appeared "somewhat restrictive" in housing, while describing the broader impact of policy across the economy as "uneven." Ivaldi interpreted those comments as evidence that Warsh may be more concerned about overly restrictive borrowing costs than his public messaging suggests. She also pointed to Warsh's skepticism toward traditional inflation measures and his decision to launch a review of the Fed's data-gathering framework. During the press conference, Warsh announced a task force to examine new data sources and improve the quality and timeliness of economic information available to policymakers. He argued that many official statistics rely on outdated survey methods and that policymakers need more real-time information about economic conditions. According to Ivaldi, that effort suggests the Fed may ultimately conclude that underlying inflation pressures are less severe than headline data currently indicate. She contends that once temporary energy-related distortions are removed, inflation is already much closer to the Fed's target than widely believed. Another point attracting attention was Warsh's treatment of the Fed's so-called "dot plot." Although the latest projections showed a significant number of policymakers expecting higher rates by year-end, Warsh downplayed the importance of those forecasts, noting that participants effectively submitted their projections in pencil and could easily revise them as conditions change. Ivaldi argues that the chairman's remarks undermine the market's assumption that the Fed is preparing for additional tightening. She noted that Warsh confirmed there was no active discussion of raising rates at the current meeting and emphasized the uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions. For gold investors, however, Ivaldi believes the more important story lies beyond Fed policy. She argues that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the gradual evolution of non-dollar trade arrangements continue to support long-term demand for physical gold. Ivaldi explained that the reopening of energy trade routes could restore flows in which Middle Eastern trade surpluses are converted into physical gold through Chinese markets, creating a structural source of demand largely independent of short-term interest-rate expectations. Ivaldi also maintains that rising sovereign debt burdens and pressure on government financing costs ultimately limit how restrictive monetary policy can become. In her view, policymakers face increasing incentives to keep Treasury yields contained, a backdrop that historically has been supportive for hard assets such as gold. Warsh himself offered little guidance on the future path of rates, repeatedly stressing that the Fed had abandoned formal forward guidance and would remain focused on incoming data. He also emphasized that the central bank's credibility would ultimately be measured by its ability to deliver price stability rather than by its rhetoric. For now, gold traders appear focused on the chairman's inflation-fighting language. But Ivaldi argues that investors should pay closer attention to what she sees as the deeper forces reshaping global capital flows. "The jawboning works for a few days, but the underlying plumbing tells the real story," she said. “The dollar is left less fungible for international trade, not more, the sovereign debt burden remains massive, and the long-term structural case for gold has only grown stronger. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-post-fed-selloff-may-be-missing-bigger-picture-says-former-lehman

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,599/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,683/mt in early trading, then swung wildly downward to a low of $13,590/mt near the session’s end, eventually closing at $13,590.5/mt, up 0.54%. Trading volume reached 19,200 lots, and open interest was 271,000 lots, down 1,319 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,780 yuan/mt, quickly rose to 104,870 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to a low of 104,270 yuan/mt, later swung wildly before closing at 104,390 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume reached 30,000 lots, and open interest was 162,000 lots, down 1,482 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bear position reduction.

Following the formal announcement by India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, the India–Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will take effect on 1 June 2026. Market attention has largely focused on the surface-level benefit that “Oman will exempt an average 5% import tariff on 98% of Indian export goods.”

South Korea's Finance Minister Gu Runzhe said he expected the country's economic growth to exceed 2% this year, supported by surging global semiconductor demand. "We expect growth to exceed 2% this year," Gu said, adding that the specific pace would depend on the chip cycle and the Middle East war. Gu noted that robust exports surged 48% in April, resulting in a trade surplus of $23.8 billion. The country's current account surplus also jumped to a record $37.3 billion in March. Even so, he said, "inflation and the real estate market are immediate risk factors" that the government needs to address as a priority.

Trade between Libya and Brazil showed clear divergence in Q1 2026. Libya’s aluminum scrap exports to Brazil surged, driving total exports up 347.4% YoY to about USD 1.7 million. Meanwhile, Brazil’s exports to Libya fell 57.2% to USD 94.19 million, though Brazil still maintained a trade surplus of about USD 92.4 million. Brazilian exports mainly included iron ore, poultry, beef, tobacco and coffee, with iron ore accounting for about 36.8% of the total. Overall bilateral trade fell 56.5% YoY to USD 95.9 million, while rising aluminum scrap flows reflected changing dynamics in recycled resource trade.

Data released by Japan's Ministry of Finance on Wednesday showed that Japan's export growth accelerated in March, driven by recovering demand and strong exports of semiconductors and electronic parts. Japan's total exports in March were up 11.7% YoY, higher than the revised 4% growth rate in February and exceeding the analyst forecast median of 11%. Imports were up 10.9%, higher than the previous month's 10.3%. The non-seasonally adjusted trade surplus expanded to 667 billion yen ($4.2 billion). Affected by US tariffs, Japan's exports to the US grew 3.4%. Driven by chips, electronic parts, and non-ferrous metals, Japan's exports to the EU grew 18.2% as disruptions related to the Chinese New Year holiday subsided.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fell Below the 390,000 Yuan Mark in the Night Session, Spot Market Trading Expected to Recover]

Chile's central bank reported that the country's copper export value in March reached $5.16 billion, up 14% YoY. Chile is the world's largest copper-producing country. The bank also said the country posted a trade surplus of $3.06 billion for the month, slightly above the $3 billion expected by economists in a survey.

Nomura Securities economist Jeong Woo Park said that, driven by strong semiconductor exports, South Korea’s trade surplus this year could widen from $77 billion in 2025 to around $200 billion. After South Korea’s export growth in March surged to 48% from 29% in February, affected by robust chip demand, Park wrote in a report: “There is no sign whatsoever that the chip upcycle is peaking, and strong pricing effects and artificial intelligence demand will continue to support double-digit growth.” He also downplayed concerns that the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supplies of helium and other critical inputs needed for chip manufacturing. He noted that chip companies held three to six months of inventory of key inputs, and that the conflict was unlikely to disrupt exports.