The US Department of Commerce and the US International Trade Commission (USITC) have announced the full continuation of existing anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) orders on prestressed concrete steel wire strand (PC strand) imported from Argentina, Colombia, Egypt, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. This extension follows a formal sunset review initiated on December 1, 2025, where the agencies determined that revoking the duties would directly lead to a recurrence of material injury to the domestic industry within a short-term timeframe. The existing duty rates, which include restrictive punitive customs margins varying by origin, will remain in force for an additional five-year period. The market impact outlines a prolonged protective environment for North American structural wire and long product manufacturers. By maintaining these strict trade friction barriers, the US continues to insulate its domestic construction supply chain from non-FTA competitive inflows, compelling global PC strand producers to redirect their surplus capacities to more accessible regional markets.

The UK Business Secretary is set to meet the EU Trade Commissioner in Brussels, raising concerns over the EU's plan to cut duty-free steel import quotas for non-EU countries by 47% from 2024 levels, effective July 1. The move threatens UK steel exports significantly. Meanwhile, the EU steel association has pushed back against the UK's own quota reductions, with products including hot-rolled coil, tinplate, and rebar at risk. Both sides are tightening steel trade protections in response to Chinese competition and global overcapacity, but the quota adjustments risk deepening bilateral trade friction.

SMM News, May 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.86%, SHFE aluminum up 0.19%, SHFE lead down 0.45%, SHFE zinc up 1.05%, SHFE tin up 1.31%, and SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures edged up, the most-traded alumina contract was up 1.08%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract up 0.9%, the most-traded silicon metal contract up 0.12%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract up 0.45%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.38%, hot-rolled coil up 0.47%, and stainless steel down 0.57%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal edged up, and the most-traded coke contract was up 0.42%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper was down 0.41%, LME aluminum down 0.68%, LME lead down 0.12%, LME zinc up 0.18%, LME tin down 1.61%, and LME nickel down 0.52%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold was down 0.1% and COMEX silver down 0.26%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 1.59% and the most-traded SHFE silver contract up 1.86%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract was up 0.89% and the most-traded palladium futures contract down 1.45%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight contract was up 0.62%, closing at 3,016 points. As of 11:41 on May 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Aluminum: On May 29, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,060, up 50, at a discount of 225 to the current-month contract, narrowing by 5. Futures edged up today, and spot cargo in South China was generally stable with slight fall. Absolute prices remained at relatively low levels and inventory saw significant drawdowns. In the morning, most holders continued to hold prices firm for shipments... Macro front China: [ CCPIT: Global Trade Friction Index Remained at High Level in March ] This morning (May 29), the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) held a press conference to release the latest Global Trade Friction Index. Data showed that in March this year, the global trade friction index remained at a high level. Composite index, the global trade friction index stood at 104 in March 2026, remaining at a high level. The value of trade involved in global trade friction measures fell 29.1% YoY but rose 2.8% MoM. Country-specific indices, among the 20 countries (regions) monitored, the top 3 were the US, India, and the EU. The US accounted for the largest amount involved in global trade friction measures, ranking first in 11 out of the past 12 months. Wang Yifei, spokesperson of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated that in terms of industry indices, among the 13 major industries within the monitoring scope, trade friction measures were concentrated in the electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, and machinery equipment industries, with the electronics industry ranking first in the trade friction index. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 30 Billion Yuan for the Day and a Net Injection of 104.4 Billion Yuan for the Week] The PBOC conducted 123 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 153 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 30 billion yuan was achieved for the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 908.9 billion yuan of reverse repo operations. As a total of 500 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 304.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, a net injection of 104.4 billion yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.1. Fed's Musalem said on Thursday that, like several other Fed policymakers, he believed the "easing bias" language should have been removed from the post-meeting statement last month, thereby creating the possibility of an interest rate hike. "I supported the rate decision, but I believe the easing bias no longer aligns with the economic outlook and the balance of risks," Musalem said. Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, said the market may still be underestimating the likelihood of further policy tightening by the US Fed. In her report, Uruci noted that since early May, the Iran conflict has lasted longer than expected, oil prices have risen, and US economic growth has remained resilient. While the US Fed can look through a temporary energy shock, sustained oil and import price pressures could affect inflation expectations, wage dynamics, and enterprise pricing behavior. Uruci shifted her base case to the federal funds rate remaining unchanged over the next 12 months. She assigned a 45% probability to rates staying unchanged, a 35% probability of an interest rate hike by year-end or early 2027, and a 20% probability of an interest rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 99.4%, with a 0.6% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 93%, with a 6.9% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. (Jin10 Data APP) A series of economic data confirmed market concerns about US inflation, while economic activity sent mixed signals. US durable goods orders rose 7.9% in April, easily surpassing the Wall Street Journal's market consensus expectations of 3.5%; however, this figure was largely driven by a surge in non-defense aircraft equipment orders. The second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down from 2% to 1.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims rose more than expected, increasing from an upwardly revised 210,000 to 215,000, suggesting an acceleration in the pace of enterprise layoffs. PCE inflation accelerated as expected, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of France's preliminary May CPI m/m, France's final Q1 GDP y/y, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment change, Germany's seasonally adjusted May unemployment rate, Germany's preliminary May CPI m/m, Canada's March GDP m/m, and the US May Chicago PMI, among other data. In addition, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin participating in a fireside chat at a conference hosted by Johns Hopkins University Carey Business School; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in an exchange event at Korea University; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen delivering a speech on the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 11:41, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 1.26% and Brent down 0.85%. The market expected a possible US-Iran ceasefire extension agreement, putting oil prices under pressure. Meanwhile, the back-and-forth nature of bilateral agreement negotiations also led to heightened volatility in oil prices. The US and Iran are nearing a historic 60-day ceasefire and maritime corridor unblocking agreement, but contradictory statements from senior officials on both sides indicate that core disagreements over Iran's nuclear plan and control of the Strait of Hormuz persist, leaving significant uncertainty over whether a final deal can be reached. According to Xinhua News Agency, US officials stated that US-Iran negotiators had largely reached agreement on the terms of a memorandum of understanding on the 26th, pending approval from senior leadership on both sides. The Iranian side stated it had obtained the necessary approval and was ready to sign. US negotiators briefed Trump on the details of the memorandum of understanding. "The President told the mediators that he would like to take a few days to consider the matter." Meanwhile, according to CCTV News, the Iranian side stated that as of now, Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, nor has it confirmed to Pakistani mediators that it has approved the memorandum. In addition, Iran explicitly stated that it had not made any commitments on the nuclear issue during negotiations with the US. (Wallstreetcn) US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Oil prices will be lower than pre-conflict levels. Nearly 2,000 ships are waiting for port departures in the Gulf, and supply on the other end of the oil market will be very ample. (Jin10 Data APP) South Korean government officials said on the 28th that the South Korean government decided to ease mandatory oil reserve requirements for private enterprises starting from the 29th to release private oil reserves to the market. The country has not yet decided when to release national oil reserves, keeping them as a "last card" to deal with potential oil crises. Yang Ki-wook, an official from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, announced on the same day that starting from the 29th, the government will reduce the mandatory oil reserve requirement for private oil companies from 40 days to 20 days, releasing oil reserves equivalent to 20 days of consumption. He stated that this measure was to fulfill commitments made to the International Energy Agency. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Easing China-U.S. Trade Tensions Combined with Ex-China Supply Gap — LME Outperforms SHFE in Aluminum Prices] The macro front received positive signals as China-U.S. trade negotiations yielded preliminary results. Both sides agreed to continue implementing prior tariff arrangements and to establish a Trade and Investment Council, which is expected to facilitate tariff reductions on certain products. The marginal easing of trade frictions is set to improve export expectations for aluminum semis and end-use products, providing bullish support for market sentiment. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Coupled with weak spot market trading performance, this further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforming SHFE, fluctuating at highs.

05 May 2026 Silver has exhibited even greater volatility than gold in Q1 2026. Prices briefly surged to around $120/oz on 29 January, roughly four times higher than a year earlier, before dropping sharply to the mid-$60s within days, easing further to around $61/oz by mid-March. The metal continues to display a strong sensitivity to moves in gold, and we expect that relationship to remain the dominant driver of direction. Industrial demand At January’s price spike, the key concern was that elevated prices could begin to undermine industrial usage. Given that roughly half of total silver demand comes from industrial applications, this remains the most critical component of the market. With prices having moderated, the risk to demand has eased somewhat. Even so, after peaking in 2024, industrial demand softened in 2025 and may edge slightly lower again in 2026. A large part of this dynamic is tied to the solar sector. Installation activity was brought forward ahead of changes to China’s power pricing regime, which is likely to weigh on deployment this year. At the same time, manufacturers continue to reduce the amount of silver used per unit through efficiency gains and material substitution. Industry estimates suggest that these technological improvements have cut silver intensity meaningfully, meaning that even where installations grow, silver demand does not necessarily follow. Despite these headwinds, the long-term backdrop remains supportive. Solar remains one of the cheapest sources of electricity, and structural demand for power continues to rise globally. However, growth is not unconstrained with grid bottlenecks and permitting delays continue to limit the pace of expansion in many regions. Geopolitics may also play a role. The conflict involving Iran could accelerate efforts in Europe and Asia to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on imported hydrocarbons. While renewable supply chains carry their own risks, these are largely front-loaded in the build phase. Once operational, renewable assets provide domestically generated energy, which enhances energy security. As such, while our base case is for softer solar-related silver demand, there is scope for upside if policy shifts accelerate deployment. Beyond solar, demand linked to data infrastructure, electrification of transport, and investment in power networks should remain supportive. In addition, usage tied to ethylene oxide catalysts is expected to recover following last year’s decline. Figure 1: Industrial silver demand Source: Metals Focus, WisdomTree. 2026. (F) = Forecasts. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Investor demand Investor flows were a major feature of 2025. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw strong inflows from March through year-end, broadly tracking the rise in prices and reaching one of the highest annual totals on record in volume terms. That trend has reversed in 2026. Outflows have been notable, with investors taking profits even before prices reached their peak in late January. The shift in positioning helps explain the sharp price correction. As participation broadened and leveraged exposure increased into early 2026, the market became more susceptible to rapid deleveraging. When geopolitical tensions escalated, many investors reduced risk and raised cash, leading to a wave of long position closures rather than the build-up of new bearish bets. Physical investment trends have been more mixed. Demand for coins and bars rose strongly in 2025, supported not only by traditional markets such as India, Germany, and Australia, but also by a pickup in East Asia and the Middle East. In these regions, higher gold prices appear to have encouraged substitution into silver. In contrast, US demand weakened significantly, falling to its lowest level in many years. More recently, volatility has dampened appetite across Western markets, with investors taking a more cautious approach during February and March. Figure 2: Silver in Exchange-traded products Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. September 2020 to April 2026. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance, and any investments may go down in value. Jewellery demand The sharp rise in prices through 2025 and early 2026 has weighed heavily on jewellery demand. Global fabrication fell by 8% in 2025, reflecting broad-based declines. India saw the most pronounced drop, as affordability pressures curtailed demand, while Europe was affected by weaker export activity linked to trade frictions. East Asia proved more resilient, with modest growth in China supported in part by substitution away from gold, and stronger export performance in Thailand. Looking ahead, continued price strength is likely to further suppress demand, while ongoing instability in the Middle East may also weigh on regional consumption. Recycling Higher prices encouraged an increase in recycling last year, with volumes reaching their highest level in over a decade. Gains were most evident in jewellery and silverware, where selling back into the market is more price sensitive. However, the response was not unlimited. Processing constraints within the refining system restricted the amount of material that could be brought back to market, particularly for higher-grade scrap. Industrial recycling moved in the opposite direction, declining due to weaker recovery rates from electronic waste. In 2026, recycling is expected to increase further, supported by a full year of elevated prices. Mine supply Global mine output rose by 3% in 2025, supported by stronger production in countries such as Peru and Russia. At the same time, production costs declined for a second consecutive year, boosting margins for primary silver producers. For 2026, supply is expected to remain broadly stable, with a marginal decline as gains in some regions are offset by weakness elsewhere, particularly in operations linked to lead and zinc mining. It is important to note that the majority of silver supply is produced as a secondary output from other metals, including gold, copper, lead, and zinc. As a result, silver supply is influenced not only by its own price but also by broader dynamics in base and precious metals markets. While higher prices and improved margins may incentivise increased activity, disruptions at both the mine and refining level, along with geopolitical complications, could limit supply growth in the near term. Market balance The silver market is expected to remain in deficit in 2026, with the shortfall broadly similar to that seen in 2025, though significantly smaller than in recent years. Weaker demand from industrial and jewellery segments has helped narrow the imbalance. At the same time, strong inflows into ETPs last year effectively absorbed available supply, tightening underlying conditions more than headline balances suggest. With investor demand likely to moderate this year, some of that pressure should ease, bringing the market closer to equilibrium. Figure 3: Silver market balance Source: Metals Focus, WisdomTree. 2025. (F) = Forecasts. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Price outlook We retain a positive outlook for gold and expect silver to move in the same direction. Even with softer demand across several segments, the strength of this relationship should provide support. Based on our modelling assumptions, and assuming gold rises by around 18% between Q1 2026 and Q1 2027, we estimate that silver could increase by roughly 24% over the same period. Much of this upside is driven by gold’s trajectory rather than silver-specific fundamentals. There are, however, constraints. Increased investment in mining capacity last year may translate into higher supply, limiting upside potential. In addition, while economic indicators such as PMIs 1 remain in expansionary territory, geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the strength of the recovery. Figure 4: Forecast attribution Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance, and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties. Conclusion Silver’s outlook is shaped less by its own fundamentals and more by its relationship with gold. Although weaker industrial and jewellery demand, along with more moderate investment flows, may create near-term headwinds, these factors are unlikely to outweigh the support provided by a favourable macro backdrop for precious metals. With the market still in deficit and structural demand drivers intact, silver remains well positioned to participate in further upside, albeit with continued volatility. Source： https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2026-05-05/silver-surfing-on-golds-coattails

During the 2026 Labour Day holiday (May 1–5), the Chinese SHFE market was closed, and LME copper exhibited a fluctuating trend of initial decline followed by recovery......

In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforms SHFE is unlikely to reverse. Strength in the overseas market will support SHFE aluminum's post-holiday catch-up potential, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, key focus will be on the pace of China aluminum ingot destocking and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream production resumptions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Tin Market Maintains Weak Supply-Demand Pattern, Tin Prices Expected to Continue Moving Sideways in a Fluctuating Trend]

[SMM Steel Export Special Report] Steel exports are projected to increase by 0.9% in 2026, and billets may become the main force of growth through "conflict spillover" 一Review of Steel Exports in 2025 and Forecast for 2026 Looking back at the previous text ( https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XRKfmCwJbx6eUBrgJe_xug ), SMM, now combining market research from over 50 customer questionnaires and market analysis, makes a forecast for steel exports in 2026. First, we present the conclusion: the total export volume of steel (steel products + billets) in 2026 is expected to reach 135 million tons, still showing a growth trend year-on-year, with a growth rate of 0.9%. Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Forecast by Variety: Coated and Galvanized Products Continue to Top the List, While Billets Leverage "Conflict Spillover" to Catch Up Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Looking back at the product mix distribution over the past 25 years, coated and plated products ranked first, followed closely by hot-rolled products and steel billets. In addition, products such as pipes and wire rods also performed quite prominently. Data source: Directly compiled from SMM's research on exporters According to the results of the SMM questionnaire survey, it can be found that the export varieties in 2026 that are more favored by exporters are mainlygalvanized steel, hot-rolled steel, and profiles. It is worth noting that silicon steel also made the list, presumably for two reasons: first, with the global power grid undergoing upgrades, the demand for orientedsilicon steelin transformers has entered a growth phase; second, as the core material for new energy vehicle motors, it is also a major source of profit for China's high-value-added exports. Based on past export data and current market analysis, SMM has estimated and predicted that the main export products in 2026 will be ① Coated and plated products (24%, with positive growth for three consecutive years), As the domestic manufacturing industry transforms towards high-end, industrial transfer, and the booming of home appliance exports, home appliance and automobile factories in regions such as Southeast Asia and North America have all entered the production stage, with rigid demand for high-quality galvanized and color-coated sheets from China. Meanwhile, compared with ordinary hot-rolled, medium and heavy plate, and other deep-processed products, coated and plated products enjoy lower anti-dumping tax rates in some countries, which is also an important means to avoid trade frictions. ② As the product with the greatest development potential this year, billets (14%) currently have obvious advantages. On the one hand, billets in China are low in price and have faced very few trade barriers to date. In the whole year of 2025, the total export volume of billets reached as high as 14.83 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 134%. According to the latest customs data compiled by SMM, the cumulative export volume of billets from January to February 2026 reached 1.7745 million tons, still achieving a year-on-year increase of 16%. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict, Iran's billet exports to Southeast Asia have nearly come to a halt, while China, with fewer overseas trade barriers for billets, will directly fill the market gap left by Iran's exit. The recent SMM Steel Export Weekly Report's research on the booming billet exports has repeatedly confirmed this situation. In summary, it is projected that billet exports will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend in 2026, with a total volume of 19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28%. ③ Hot-rolled (13%) , with the implementation of Vietnam's anti-circumvention measures against Chinese hot-rolled coils this year, the total volume of hot-rolled exports will continue to decline. Meanwhile, in 2025, China's total hot-rolled exports to Saudi Arabia were second only to Vietnam, but now maritime blockades, high insurance costs, and freight rates will all become obstacles to exports to the Middle East, so the outlook for hot-rolled coil exports is not optimistic. However, as the saying goes, "a starved camel is still bigger than a horse." As a necessary product of the "Made in China" machinery and equipment going global (indirect exports), its market dominance remains difficult to shake in the short term. Therefore, even though the decline is significant, its total volume ranking remains relatively high. Data Sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Regional Forecast: Asia Seeks Change Amid Stability, Africa Mines Potential, and European and American Markets Seek Differentiated Penetration Under "Barriers" Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Reviewing the 25-year steel export data by region, it is clearly evident that the Asian market has a core region and diversified other regions. Regarding the forecast for the flow in 26 years, SMM believes that the general regions will remain unchanged, but in terms of breakdown, ① the Southeast Asian market located in Asia (60%) will see a slight increase in its share in the game between the growth of billets and coated products and the decline of hot-rolled coils, but the share of the Middle East regions such as Saudi Arabia is likely to weaken due to geopolitical conflicts, while the share of the Indian market, which serves as a transit point for transportation to the Middle East, may increase. ② Africa (16%) It is still a blue ocean with huge potential. The promotion of the African Continental Free Trade Area will accelerate the housing and infrastructure building in North Africa and West Africa, and local mineral and energy projects will continue to drive the demand for mining machinery special steel. ③ South America (9%), Europe (8%), and North America (6%) are competing. Among them, under the dual-wheel drive of new infrastructure and resource development, the South American region is expected to continue to expand compared with the same period; while the European market is expected to continue to adjust steel exports to "less but better" under the strict CBAM (carbon border adjustment mechanism) implementation.North America continues to be constrained by high Section 232 tariffs and trade protectionism, and its low share is an objective reality. Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs The following figure shows the ranking of export regions preferred by exporters in the SMM questionnaire, which can be used as a reference. Data source: Directly compiled from SMM's research on exporters 70% of merchants are turning to "upholding integrity while seeking innovation": SMM research reveals the compound survival logic of export trade in 2026 Meanwhile, we have also conducted relevant research on the destination countries and their corresponding export varieties. As shown in the figure, the hotspots are concentrated in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, and the star products remain coated and plated products, hot-rolled products, wire rods, section steels, and steel billets. Data source: Directly compiled from SMM's research on exporters In the current context where the wave of globalization is facing headwinds and the international political and economic landscape is undergoing drastic upheaval, export trade enterprises are standing at an unprecedented crossroads. Faced with the complex external environment of supply chain fluctuations, geopolitical games, and the iteration of consumer demand, waiting for death or passive maintenance is no longer an option. According to the survey data from SMM questionnaires, nearly 70% of exporters, after reviewing their own business maps, have resolutely chosen a compound response strategy of "upholding integrity while seeking innovation": that is, on the basis of ensuring the stable operation of existing advantageous products, they are extending their reach to more forward-looking new product development and new track expansion. We must admit that in the crucible of complex situations, only by continuously iterating the product matrix and responding to the ever-changing market demands with a flexible and adaptable stance can enterprises stand firm in the storm. 二Core factors influencing steel exports in 2026 Although the forecast for the overall steel exports in 2026 is relatively optimistic, we must also pay attention to some external challenges we are currently facing. Apart from the previously mentioned Chinese export license incident, SMM believes that there are mainly three factors affecting exports this year: the first is the expectation of production restrictions (2026 is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission has clearly stated that it will continue to implement the reduction of crude steel production); the remaining two are the EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) and anti-dumping cases. Below, we will provide an interpretation of these two major factors. 2026: The Inaugural Year of the "Carbon Tax" Kicks Off: With Substantive Imposition Looming, How Can China's Steel Exports to the EU Break the Deadlock? Starting from January 1, 2026, CBAM has officially concluded the transitional period of "only reporting, no payment" and entered the substantial collection phase. This mechanism is regarded as a key piece of the puzzle for the EU to achieve its "2050 Carbon neutrality" goal, with its core logic being to levy taxes equivalent to the EU's internal carbon price on high-carbon products imported into the EU, so as to eliminate the risk of "carbon leakage" and protect the competitiveness of the EU's domestic industries. Data source: SMM compiled from public information According to the latest research by SMM, most traders are currently taking a wait-and-see attitude towards steel exports to the EU region due to the issue of certificate fees. Meanwhile, to provide a buffer period for traders, the EU will not impose 100% fees in 2026, but will instead assess based on the "free allowances" of EU domestic enterprises. That is, at present, only a small portion of emissions need to pay for certificate fees, but this coefficient will decline year by year over time (reaching 0 in 2034, i.e., full fees will be charged). In summary, there is no need to be overly worried in the short term. However, due to the significant differences between China's steel production structure (dominated by long blast furnace processes) and that of the EU (where short electric furnace processes account for a relatively high proportion), the medium- to long-term impact on China's steel industry should not be underestimated. For details, please refer to the analysis in the figure below. Data sources: SMM, public information To maintain steel exports to the EU under the influence of policies, we propose the following optimization suggestions: ① Data compliance: As soon as possible, improve the full life cycle (LCA) carbon footprint accounting of export products, establish a carbon ledger that meets EU standards, and actively prepare all relevant materials. ② Product optimization: Prioritize low-carbon emission production lines (such as electric arc furnace lines with a high proportion of scrap steel) to undertake orders for export to the EU. ③ Premium transfer: Explore the brand premium of "green steel" and attempt to offset part of the carbon tariff cost through environmental premiums. ④ Layout adjustment: Focus on the production capacity layout in regions such as Southeast Asia, and evaluate the feasibility of avoiding or mitigating carbon footprint pressure through overseas bases. Break through the fog of "anti-dumping" and jump out of the trap of "pessimistic expectations" Finally, we have compiled the anti-dumping cases that have been adjudicated for the second half of 2025 and 2026. The main product categories affecting steel exports in 2026 are hot-rolled, coated, silicon steel, and medium and heavy plates, and the markets are mostly concentrated in countries such as South Korea, Brazil, Egypt, and India. Data sources: SMM, General Administration of Customs Considering that there is usually a time period of 1 to 1.5 years from case filing to ruling, we have also compiled the following table for relevant cases that may affect steel exports in 2026 in terms of market and product variety. Summary of anti-dumping cases to be implemented in 2026 Data sources: SMM, China Trade Remedy Information Network It should be noted that although there were also many new anti-dumping cases in 2025, they did not have the expected pessimistic impact on the actual total export volume for that year. Therefore, the proportion of the impact factor of this part in the SMM balance model is not large. So, even when evaluated based on the maximum impact upon implementation, there is still an expected increase in this year's actual export volume, with the growth rate of billets remaining the main driver. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. 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The Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA) has recently urged the government to permanently remove customs duties on imported scrap and ferroalloys, and to classify chromium as a critical mineral, in order to support the country’s planned expansion of stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt. At the same time, ISSDA has also called for stronger measures to address the impact of low-priced Chinese products, warning that some Chinese material may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. These statements suggest that the Indian stainless steel industry is no longer simply asking for “growth support.” Instead, it has entered a more complex phase, where it wants to accelerate capacity expansion while also defending itself against external competition. Capacity Expansion Is Clear, and India’s Stainless Steel Industry Has Entered a Critical Phase At first glance, these may look like two conflicting policy demands. On the one hand, the industry wants lower import duties on raw materials to reduce production costs. On the other hand, it is asking the government to tighten import restrictions and strengthen trade protection. But when viewed within the broader industry cycle that India’s stainless steel sector is currently going through, these two demands are not contradictory. They are simply two sides of the same expansion cycle. For domestic stainless steel producers in India, the most important goal over the next few years is to build up local supply capacity while domestic demand is still growing. ISSDA has previously estimated that stainless steel demand in India will continue to grow by 7%–8% annually over the next two to three years. Against this backdrop, the industry wants to keep raw material costs as low as possible during the expansion phase, while also preventing low-priced imported finished products from eroding returns before local capacity expansion is complete. In other words, what worries India’s stainless steel industry most right now is not the absence of market demand, but the possibility that demand exists while the gains from expansion are undermined by imports. That is why ISSDA is simultaneously calling for the permanent removal of duties on scrap and ferroalloy imports, while also highlighting the threat posed by low-priced Chinese products. In the industry’s view, lower tariffs on raw materials would improve the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing, while stronger protection on finished products would buy time for local investment, expansion, and capacity ramp-up. This policy logic of “opening the upstream while defending the downstream” is, in essence, a typical industrial development strategy. Raw Material Security Has Become the Core Condition Behind Expansion This also reflects the industry’s growing concern over raw material supply. Scrap and ferroalloys are key inputs for stainless steel production, while chromium is a critical element in the stainless alloy system. ISSDA’s specific call to classify chromium as a critical mineral shows that its focus is no longer limited to short-term price issues, but has shifted toward medium- to long-term resource security. India has long been the world’s largest importer of stainless steel scrap. Data shows that its stainless scrap imports rose to 1.58 million mt in 2025, up significantly from 2024, further underscoring India’s continued reliance on overseas scrap supply. For a country aiming to expand stainless steel capacity from 7 million mt to 11 million mt, whether the raw material supply system can scale up in parallel will directly determine whether that expansion can actually be delivered. If import costs for scrap and ferroalloys remain high, or if chromium supply security proves insufficient, then even the most ambitious capacity plans could face rising costs, margin pressure, or slower project execution in practice. From the industry’s perspective, therefore, removing duties on imported raw materials and strengthening critical mineral management are not isolated policy demands. They are essential supporting measures for the broader expansion target. India’s stainless steel industry wants to secure the raw material base first before further releasing capacity, reflecting a deeper concern for supply chain completeness and long-term sustainability. Demand Continues to Grow, but Cheap External Supply Creates Real Pressure On the demand side, India is still seen as one of the most important growth markets for stainless steel consumption globally. With the development of manufacturing, continued infrastructure investment, and upgrading in end-use consumption, India’s stainless steel demand is expected to maintain relatively strong growth, providing a solid foundation for capacity expansion. The challenge, however, is that demand growth does not automatically mean domestic producers will benefit. If most of the incremental demand is captured by imported material, India may see consumption expand without domestic industry benefiting to the same extent. In this context, ISSDA’s concerns over Chinese oversupply spilling into India become particularly sensitive. According to media reports, ISSDA believes China has more than 8 million mt of excess stainless steel melting capacity, and that this material is seeking overseas outlets, with India standing out as one of the most attractive target markets. The reason is straightforward. On the one hand, India is itself a growth market. On the other hand, its domestic supply system is still in the process of expanding and has not yet built an unshakable market barrier, making it more exposed to external supply pressure. For Indian mills, this pressure is not only reflected in price competition, but also in investment expectations. When an industry is in the middle of an expansion phase, companies need a relatively predictable margin environment to support new investments, depreciation costs, and capacity ramp-up. If large volumes of low-priced imports continue to flow in during this period, domestic producers may struggle to convert rising demand into actual returns. The Risk of Rerouted Trade Is One of India’s Bigger Concerns Another important point in ISSDA’s latest statement is the issue of rerouted trade. The association warned that some Chinese steel products may be entering India through third countries such as Vietnam, thereby bypassing existing trade protection measures. This concern is easy to understand. In recent years, amid ongoing global trade friction and stricter origin management, practices such as third-country rerouting, supply chain detours, and origin restructuring have come under increasing scrutiny. For India, this means that even if trade protection measures exist on paper, actual import pressure may not disappear in practice. In other words, what truly concerns the industry is not simply whether tariffs or barriers exist, but whether these measures can actually work as intended. If external supply can continue entering India through more complex trade routes, then the competitive pressure facing domestic producers will not ease in any meaningful way, weakening the real impact of policy protection. India’s Core Objective Is to Turn Demand Advantage Into Industrial Advantage At a deeper level, India’s stainless steel industry is moving from a stage of demand-driven growth to one of broader industrial competition. In the past, discussion of India’s stainless steel market often focused on its consumption growth potential, including its large population base, urbanization, and manufacturing upgrade. But as consumption continues to expand, the question is no longer simply whether demand will grow, but who will ultimately capture that growth. If domestic demand keeps rising while most of the incremental market is filled by imports, India may become a major consumption market without necessarily becoming a true manufacturing powerhouse. What ISSDA is now pushing for is, in effect, the key step needed to turn India’s demand advantage into industrial advantage. That is why the industry is asking the government to lower upstream raw material costs while at the same time strengthening trade defense at the finished-product end. The underlying logic is not simply to reject imports, but to create a more supportive environment for domestic manufacturing to grow and attract investment. The Direction of Future Policy Is Worth Watching Viewed within the broader competitive landscape of the Asian stainless steel market, India’s position is actually becoming quite clear. It does not want to remain merely a consumption market. It wants to become a more complete domestic manufacturing center. That means its policy stance is likely to continue along a dual-track approach: more openness toward key raw materials, and greater caution toward finished-product imports. For the market, there are several developments worth watching. First, whether India will further reduce import duties on scrap and ferroalloys on a long-term basis, or even establish a more stable policy framework for raw material support. Second, whether chromium will be formally included in the country’s critical mineral system, thereby strengthening resource security. Third, whether India will step up anti-dumping, anti-circumvention, and origin-related scrutiny, especially against third-country rerouting paths. If these directions gradually materialize, they could reshape competition in India’s stainless steel market, alter its import structure, and even change broader resource flows across Asia. Conclusion Overall, ISSDA’s latest public stance does not simply signal another trade friction issue. It reflects the broader priorities of India’s stainless steel industry as it enters a new stage: securing raw material supply and cost competitiveness for expansion, while also preventing low-priced external supply from undermining domestic industry during a critical window. Whether India’s stainless steel story can evolve from one of consumption growth into one of manufacturing rise may depend not only on the pace of demand growth itself, but also on whether the government can build a policy mix that effectively balances resources, tariffs, and trade protection in a way that genuinely supports domestic industrial upgrading. Written by: Bruce Chew | bruce.chew@metal.com +601167087088