Tariffs, certification regimes and quotas, not demand, have redrawn Indonesia's 4.7 million-mt export map since 2021: China's share has halved, India has quadrupled, and Europe's door has narrowed to a slab-shaped hole.

[SMM Analysis: 2026 H1 Galvanized Sheet Import and Export Review and H2 Outlook] According to customs data, from January to June 2026, China's cumulative exports of galvanized sheet reached 6.7066 million mt, down 3.13% YoY; cumulative imports reached 327,500 mt, down 14.78% YoY. Overall, although China's galvanized sheet exports in H1 pulled back compared to the same period last year, the decline was relatively limited...

Chinese steel investment is gradually shifting from direct exports to localized production in Southeast Asia. New and planned projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines are expected to strengthen regional supply, but if capacity growth continues to outpace demand, it could further intensify market competition.

Chinese-backed steel investment is increasingly shifting from direct exports toward local production across Southeast Asia. New and planned projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines could strengthen regional supply, but may also intensify competition if capacity growth continues to outpace demand.

By 2030, approximately 80,000 kilometers of facility renovations will be carried out, a new round of rural road improvement actions will be launched, and 500,000 kilometers of rural roads will be newly built or upgraded.

In H1, the industry showed distinct characteristics: upstream raw material imports experienced a mix of hot and cold trends, while mid-and downstream aluminum processing product exports saw explosive growth. Diverging domestic and overseas demand, shifting overseas manufacturing orders, and changes in the overseas raw material supply landscape are jointly reshaping the trade pattern of China's aluminum industry chain.

In H1 2026, China’s aluminum extrusion industry ran under three clear traits: feeble domestic demand recovery, overseas demand sliding first then bouncing back, and a sharp split between booming and sluggish product segments.

On July 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.32 million mt of steel in June 2026, down 21,000 mt MoM or 0.2% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 54.874 million mt, down 5.6% YoY. In June 2026, China imported 441,000 mt of steel, down 10,000 mt MoM or 2.2% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to June were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Table 1: Overview of Steel Imports and Exports, January-June Source: SMM Steel Exports Remained High in June According to SMM's June export production schedule survey, planned HRC export volume for the month stood at 1.05 million mt, slightly lower than actual exports in May, with a relatively limited decline. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that steel export orders remained high in mid-April, laying the foundation for high steel exports in May-June. Table 2: China’s Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports Stayed Low in June On the import side, steel imports in June were 441,000 mt, down MoM. January-June cumulative imports were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Net steel exports reached 52.178 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global Manufacturing Declined MoM; Domestic New Export Orders Recovered Marginally According to J.P. Morgan global PMI data, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2 in June 2026, still in expansion territory but with momentum slowing for a second consecutive month, mainly due to earlier stockpiling to avoid Middle East shipping risks, while preventive stockpiling demand waned in June. In addition, end-use consumer goods demand in Europe and the US was weak, global export orders fell below the 50 mark, and the ASEAN composite PMI dropped 1 point MoM, with regional sentiment cooling significantly. China's manufacturing new export orders index at 50.1% in June, up 1.5 percentage points MoM, pointed to a marginal recovery in external demand. 2. Supply Outside China Rose MoM; Overall Supply Pressure Intensified Global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt in May 2026. In China, against a severe backdrop of finished steel destocking falling short of expectations and losses, steel mills proactively brought forward maintenance plans to defensively control output. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world rose 28.8% YoY. The Asian market was unusually resilient, with India's crude steel production recording 14.1 million mt. Meanwhile, Vietnam's production surged 27.2% YoY, driven not by a stress response to trade barriers but by downstream manufacturing entering a concentrated stockpiling phase, coupled with genuine demand from infrastructure projects rushing to meet deadlines ahead of the monsoon season. In contrast, production in the Middle East plunged 19.4% YoY in May, with previous war damage from geopolitical conflicts and wartime energy controls remaining an invisible and heavy ceiling suppressing production resumptions in the region. Production regions in Europe and the US (the US up 9.2% YoY, Germany up 7.3% YoY) maintained relatively active operating rates, supported by new-type data center infrastructure and anticipatory moves to preempt regional trade barriers such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It is reported that the Middle East recently started offering billet exports and concluded deals. Meanwhile, increased production in India, Vietnam and others also put some pressure on domestic exports. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price Advantage Narrowed Significantly; Pressure on Export Orders Intensified As of July 16, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $510/mt, $408/mt, and $530/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $493/mt. Currently, China's HRC export quotations are $17/mt, $115/mt, and $37/mt lower than those countries. China's steel export price advantage narrowed significantly MoM from June. The overseas market remained in the off-season, and low-price export promotion remained the main channel for them to relieve domestic pressure. In China, prices remained relatively firm supported by costs. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowed markedly, intensifying pressure on export orders. Figure 2: HRC Quotations in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export Orders Remained at Low Levels in May-June; A Sudden Increase Is Difficult According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, planned HRC exports for this month totaled 1.059 million mt, up 5.2% MoM from actual exports last month. SMM's steel export order data showed that due to the ongoing overseas off-season and consecutive overseas price declines, steel export orders in May-June declined significantly MoM from the previous period. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. Anti-Dumping Cases with Impact Increased in June New anti-dumping related cases in China increased in June, involving products such as steel pipes, coated sheets, cold-rolled, stainless steel, hot-rolled, and medium-thickness plates. Details of the cases and their impact volumes are shown in the table below. Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in June Source: SMM Overall, against the backdrop of the overseas off-season coupled with a narrowing price advantage, the weakness in earlier export orders may gradually be reflected in export data. SMM expects that actual steel exports in July will face some downward pressure. However, as overseas prices continue to pull back and hit bottom, some new procurement demand may be released. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Source Declaration: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. If you need to reprint, whitelist, or cooperate, please contact us. 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SMM, July 12: In the first half of 2026, China's aluminum extrusion industry presented an extreme pattern of structural divergence. Traditional construction extrusion demand remained persistently weak, dragging down the industry’s overall operating load, while industrial extrusion maintained high prosperity, underpinned by new energy, power, and heat dissipation sectors, serving as the core pillar of the industry. Meanwhile, linked volatility in aluminum prices intensified both in and outside China, with the price spread repeatedly narrowing. The export market experienced a "deep V-shaped recovery" trajectory, and the overall industry performance was characterized by "weak recovery in domestic demand, initial suppression followed by recovery in overseas demand, and a stark contrast between strong and weak structural segments." 1. Extrusion Operating Rates: Construction Extrusion Continued to Drag, Industrial Extrusion Resilience Supported the Industry After the 2026 Chinese New Year, the industry entered its traditional peak season for resuming work. In March, extrusion enterprises concentrated on production resumptions and downstream clients engaged in concentrated restocking, pushing the industry's composite operating rate to its H1 peak of 50.6%. Entering Q2, genuine downstream demand follow-through was insufficient, raw material prices fluctuated at high levels, and the industry was further impacted by the rainy season in south China and environmental protection inspections in some regions. As a result, the industry operating rate continued to pull back mildly, falling to 47.6% in June, with the overall operating level weaker than the average for the same period over the past three years. Construction extrusion was the core weak spot dragging down the industry’s overall operations. In H1, data on commercial housing transactions and new construction starts in China remained persistently weak; developers' financial positions showed no significant improvement, and payment returns from project sites were slow. Orders for housing construction-related doors, windows, and curtain wall extrusions continued to shrink. From January to May, domestic aluminum prices generally consolidated at highs, and downstream end-users exhibited strong resistance to high-priced raw materials. Traders and processing plants generally maintained low inventory levels, moving goods in and out quickly, with low willingness to initiate restocking. Although the industry actively expanded non-residential construction demand from industrial parks, standard factories, and government and enterprise public buildings, and home decoration for existing home renovations and home decoration retail recovered slightly, the incremental volume was limited, completely failing to offset the decline in bulk project orders. In H1, construction extrusion operations remained under pressure, making it the biggest drag on the industry. The structural prosperity of the industrial extrusion segment continued to rise, strongly underpinning the industry's operating rates. Demand for power transmission and transformation, energy storage structural components, industrial heat dissipation extrusions, and rail transit supporting profiles maintained steady growth. For PV extrusion, affected by the official cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for PV-related products on April 1, overseas clients concentrated on front-loading orders and enterprises rushed to meet production deadlines in Q1, driving the operating rates for PV frames and mounting extrusions to stage a temporary surge. After the policy took effect, the bonus from overseas rush orders faded, and PV extrusion production schedules returned to rationality, maintaining stable operation from April to June. NEV extrusions showed structural divergence: demand for lightweight extrusions for auto body and chassis remained robust, while demand for ordinary interior extrusions weakened. Overall, the resonance of prosperity across multiple industrial extrusion tracks effectively offset the weak demand for traditional construction materials, highlighting the structural resilience of the industry. 2. Aluminum Extrusion Exports: Deeply Under Pressure in Q1, Continuous Recovery in Q2, V-Shaped Reversal in H1 In H1 2026, China's aluminum extrusion exports followed a V-shaped trend overall, with a sharp decline in Q1 followed by consecutive recoveries in Q2. The driving logic shifted from price inversions and off-season effects overseas at the beginning of the year, towards the release of demand in emerging markets and the transfer of China's processing and manufacturing advantages. Q1: Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Price Inversions Combined with Overseas Off-Season Led to Sharply Weaker Exports Exports from January to February showed off-season resilience, mainly supported by deliveries for orders placed ahead of the Chinese New Year. In January, China exported 81,000 mt of aluminum extrusions, up slightly by 1.4% MoM but down slightly by 5.3% YoY. In February, disruptions from the Chinese New Year holiday saw exports fall to 64,000 mt, a 20.4% MoM decrease but a sharp 62% YoY increase, significantly outperforming the precipitous declines of past Chinese New Year periods. The core reason was that secondary aluminum extrusion enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian concentrated on delivering orders for Southeast Asia and the Middle East before the holiday, while some industrial extrusion enterprises adopted a model of "preliminary domestic processing and deep processing overseas" to speed up contract fulfillment, supporting export volumes at the start of the year. In March, industry exports hit their low point for the first half of the year, with monthly exports of only 48,000 mt, down 24.8% MoM and plunging 32.8% YoY. The core reason for this export slump was not a single geopolitical factor but the resonance of multiple negative factors: first, orders placed ahead of the Chinese New Year overdrew demand from February and March, after which overseas markets entered the traditional consumption off-season; second, LME aluminum saw wild swings in March, and domestic and overseas aluminum prices quickly inverted, compressing export profits for domestic extrusions and leading enterprises to proactively control volumes and take fewer orders; third, the European and US CBAM carbon tariff continued to suppress high-end extrusion exports, causing continuous market shrinkage there, coupled with a slowdown in logistics and customs clearance in some Middle Eastern regions. These multiple factors caused a substantial pullback in export volumes in March. Q2: Emerging Market Volume Surge, Exports See Double YoY and MoM Growth for Two Consecutive Months Starting in April, the price spread between China and overseas markets gradually recovered, the overseas off-season ended, and industry exports began a continuous recovery channel. Exports that month were 76,000 mt, surging 56.8% MoM and up 6.9% YoY, returning to the normal range for past years. Trade and logistics order in the Middle East recovered, stockpiling in Southeast Asia ahead of the rainy season began, and domestic enterprises accelerated their layout in emerging markets in Central Asia and Latin America. Leveraging overseas affiliated warehouses and cross-border stockpiling models to continuously take on rigid demand orders for overseas doors, windows, and curtain walls, export prosperity recovered rapidly. Exports in May continued their high-growth momentum, hitting the monthly peak for H1 at 87,000 mt, up 14.6% MoM and 20.1% YoY. The export structure continued to optimize; low-end construction extrusions saw steady incremental growth, while the export share of high-value-added industrial aluminum components, outdoor aluminum semis, and PV supporting extrusions continued to rise. Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Central Asia became the four core growth markets for domestic extrusion exports, effectively offsetting the shrinking demand in European and US markets. 3. H2 2026 Industry Outlook: Weakly Stable Domestic Demand, Marginal Export Weakness, Continued Structural Divergence Looking ahead to H2 2026, the structural divergence pattern in China's aluminum extrusion industry is expected to become further entrenched, with overall operations characterized by "consolidation on a subdued note, industrial support, and construction material drag." On the domestic demand side, the fundamentals of the real estate sector are hard-pressed to see a substantive repair in the short term. Commercial housing new starts and project payment returns are expected to remain weak, and construction extrusion demand will continue to operate in a low range without a trending recovery. Non-residential infrastructure and home decoration retail can only provide a slight offset, unable to reverse the overall weakness of construction extrusions. Industrial extrusion will remain the core pillar of the industry: in H2, steady climbing of domestic PV installations will drive the continued release of demand for PV frames and mounting extrusions; demand for new-type energy storage, data center heat dissipation, and power equipment extrusions will maintain steady incremental growth. NEV extrusions will show a divergence between strong and weak segments; demand for high-end lightweight structural components will be firm, but overall industry overcapacity and intensifying end-user competition will exert marginal contraction pressure on demand for ordinary automotive extrusions. Overall, industrial extrusion can defend the industry’s baseline but can hardly offset the downward pressure from construction extrusions. In H2, the industry's overall operating rate may be slightly lower than in H1. Pressure on the export front will gradually emerge, with the trend potentially turning from the high growth of Q2 to a mild slowdown. In H2, the bonus from overseas traditional peak seasons will gradually fade, while the domestic-overseas aluminum price spread narrows, export processing profits are compressed, and overseas local aluminum processing capacity continues to be released, alongside persistent trade barriers against Chinese aluminum semis in some countries. This will gradually weaken the price advantage of domestic extrusion exports. Although secondary aluminum extrusion exports may still hold cost advantages, homogenized competition in low-end products is fierce and profits remain compressed. The export growth rate for aluminum extrusions is expected to slow down gradually in H2, with overall volumes weaker than in Q2. In summary, throughout 2026, the aluminum extrusion industry is expected to continuously exhibit structural characteristics of weak construction, strong industrial, stable but weak domestic demand, and exports that are high in the first half and low in the second. Industry competition will further concentrate on high-end industrial extrusion, high-value-added deep processing, and overseas emerging markets, with low-end construction extrusion capacity continuously entering a phase of being cleared.

Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.