SMM May 9 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly decline. SHFE copper rose 0.53%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.16%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc fell 1.19%. SHFE tin fell 1.13%. SHFE nickel fell 0.67%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.37%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.24%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 816.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel fell 1.05%, rebar edged up slightly, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.39%, and coke fell 0.43%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals showed mixed performance among LME base metals. LME copper rose 1.59%. LME aluminum rose 0.34%, and LME lead was flat at $1,977.5/mt. LME zinc fell 0.17%. LME tin fell 1.26%. LME nickel fell 0.89%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.27%, posting a weekly gain of 1.71%; COMEX silver rose 0.82%, gaining 5.76% for the week. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.21%, with a weekly gain of 3.24%; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.09%, with SHFE silver gaining 11.4% for the week. As of 8:39 AM on May 9, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chaired State Council Executive Meeting: Advancing Local Government Debt Risk Resolution and Strengthening Full-Chain Management of Mineral Resources] State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting on May 9, studying and implementing the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speeches on the current economic situation and economic work, as well as at the symposium on strengthening basic research. The meeting noted that efforts should be made to align thinking and actions with the CPC Central Committee's scientific assessment of the situation, further bolster confidence, seize opportunities amid changes, drive development through overcoming challenges, consolidate and expand the momentum of steady and positive economic growth, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Macro policies should focus on being fully and effectively utilized, maintaining proactive implementation, and continuously improving execution efficiency. Strengthening the domestic economic circulation should seek breakthroughs in coordinated supply-demand alignment and integrated upgrading, implementing and improving measures to expand capacity and enhance quality in the service sector, and strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks . Social welfare efforts should focus more on stabilizing employment and ensuring basic needs, and doing well in education, healthcare, childcare, agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Greater efforts and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, placing basic research high on the agenda. In light of the country's urgent needs and long-term demands, the main directions and key areas of focus should be identified, investment should be increased through multiple measures, and efforts should be made to foster a sound research ecosystem. Risks and challenges should be addressed effectively, with continued efforts to defuse risks in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions. Safety production responsibilities of all parties should be closely monitored and enforced to resolutely prevent major and serious accidents. ( Xinhua News Agency ) [General Administration of Customs: In the first 4 months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew 14.9%, with electromechanical product exports up 17.6%] According to customs statistics, in the first 4 months of 2026, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 16.23 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this, exports totaled 9.33 trillion yuan, up 11.3%; imports totaled 6.9 trillion yuan, up 20%. In April, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 4.38 trillion yuan, up 14.2%. Of this, exports totaled 2.48 trillion yuan, up 9.8%; imports totaled 1.9 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. [Four departments: Exploring direct connection of nuclear power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources to supply computing facilities, and continuously increasing the share of green electricity in computing facilities] The Plan proposes enhancing the diversified power supply capacity of computing facilities. Based on actual conditions such as the scale of computing facility grid connections, power grid voltage levels, power grid new energy penetration rates, power quality requirements, and computing facility business types, standards for energy supply planning and construction of computing facilities are to be established and improved. The use of nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and other energy sources to supply computing facilities through direct connections is to be explored. Computing facilities are encouraged to deploy grid-forming ESS to enhance power supply stability and active support capability for the power system. [Three departments issue the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents] The Cyberspace Administration of China, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Standardized Application and Innovative Development of AI Agents. The Implementation Opinions specify that the development of AI agents should adhere to the basic principles of safety and controllability, standardization and orderliness, innovation-driven development, and application-led guidance, and put forward measures in four areas: first, consolidating the development foundation by improving the technology base and establishing standards and protocols; second, safeguarding the security baseline by defining product guidelines, preventing security risks, improving the governance system, and strengthening industry self-discipline; third, strengthening application-led guidance by proposing 19 typical application scenarios in areas such as scientific research, industrial development, consumption stimulation, people's well-being, and social governance. Fourth, building an innovative ecosystem, promoting industrial cooperation, and strengthening application promotion. [ China's April Warehousing Index Remained in Expansion Territory, with the Warehousing Industry Continuing a Stable and Positive Trend ] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Warehousing Index today (May 9). The index continued to stay in expansion territory, with the warehousing industry maintaining a stable and positive trend. The April China Warehousing Index was 51%, remaining in expansion territory for two consecutive months. In terms of sub-indices, the new orders index, facility utilization rate index, and end-of-period inventory index remained in expansion territory, while the average inventory turnover index maintained a relatively high level, indicating steady growth in warehousing business demand, good cargo turnover efficiency, and smooth supply chain connectivity. By category, the peak production and construction season drove a rebound in warehousing demand for bulk commodities such as chemicals, coal, and machinery equipment, while Labour Day holiday stockpiling boosted notable growth in warehousing demand for consumer goods such as food, home appliances, and agricultural by-products. In terms of market expectations, the April business activity expectations index was 55.1%, remaining at a relatively high level, reflecting enterprises' continued optimism. Overall, the warehousing industry operated steadily in April, market vitality continued to be released, and Q2 got off to a good start. (CCTV) [ Shanghai Shipping Exchange: Geopolitical Situation Stabilizing, Freight Rates Rising on Most Routes ] The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) weekly report stated that the current military conflict in the Middle East continued to maintain a ceasefire, with the geopolitical situation relatively stable, though the future situation still faced significant uncertainty. This week, China's export container shipping market remained stable, with freight rates on most routes edging up, driving the composite index higher. On May 8, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index stood at 1954.21 points, up 2.2% from the previous period. US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.86. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index declined for two consecutive weeks, down 0.36% for the week. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that April non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, marking the first consecutive growth in nearly a year and the largest two-month gain since 2024, far exceeding the Bloomberg survey median economist forecast of 65,000. March data was also revised up to 185,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations. (Wallstreetcn) "US Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: An increasing number of sell-side institutions and US Fed watchers are removing or delaying interest rate cut expectations from their outlooks, including several forecasters who made adjustments following the release of the April non-farm payrolls data. Currently, half of the respondents believe there will be no interest rate cut this year (given the inertial nature of such forecasts, this camp is likely to continue growing). In addition, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that all rate options are currently on the table, not just rate cuts. At the end of April, the US Fed kept rates unchanged, with three officials opposing language in the statement that hinted the next move could be a rate cut, arguing that the possibility of a rate hike should be preserved. Goolsbee's remarks reflected a shift among US Fed policymakers — moving away from considering near-term rate cuts, primarily because the energy price shock triggered by the Iran war pushed up inflation. He reiterated that both rate cuts and rate hikes are on the table and expressed anxiety about inflation, noting that price pressures exist beyond the energy shock. (Jin10 Data) As consumers worried about the impact of inflation on personal finances and buying conditions, US consumer confidence fell to a new all-time low in recent weeks. University of Michigan data showed that the preliminary May consumer sentiment index fell from 49.8 in April to 48.2. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.5% over the next year, a slight pullback MoM; longer-term inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years stood at 3.4%. As Americans grew anxious about overall living costs, compounded by a sharp rise in gasoline prices, consumer confidence remained subdued. American Automobile Association (AAA) data showed that the average US gasoline price this week surpassed $4.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2022, having risen more than 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war. Survey director Joanne Hsu stated: "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices, and about 30% mentioned tariff issues. Overall, consumers still feel the impact of cost pressure, with the primary driver being surging prices at the pump." The preliminary May current conditions index fell to 47.8, a record low; the expectations index rebounded for the first time since January. Consumers' assessment of their current financial situation dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and the buying conditions indicator also fell to a five-month low. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include China April CPI YoY, China April PPI YoY, US April existing home sales annualized, Germany April CPI MoM final, Germany May ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May ZEW economic sentiment index, US April NFIB small business confidence index, US ADP employment weekly change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, US April seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI YoY, Japan March trade balance, France Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France April CPI MoM final, Eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised, Eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, Eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, US April PPI MoM, UK Q1 GDP YoY preliminary, UK March three-month GDP MoM, UK March manufacturing output MoM, Canada March wholesale sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9, US April retail sales MoM, US April import price index MoM, US May New York Fed manufacturing index, US April industrial output MoM, and China April total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), among others. In addition, other events to watch this week included: US Treasury Secretary Bessent's visit to Japan to meet with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Bank of Japan Governor, and the Finance Minister; the Bank of Japan's release of the Summary of Opinions from its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee attending a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participating in a discussion hosted by a local chamber of commerce; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan participating in a dialogue on the energy sector; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivering opening remarks at an online discussion on central bank independence; US Fed Governor Barr delivering a speech; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a discussion; and the National Energy Administration releasing national electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month. Crude oil: Last Friday overnight, both oil futures moved sideways, with WTI down 0.14% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 7.12% for the week, while Brent fell 7.32%. Middle East conflicts resurfaced, and market concerns over the fragility of ceasefire agreements persisted. According to CMG reporters on May 8, ship-tracking data showed that as of the morning of May 8 local time, no large vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. This reportedly marked the second consecutive day since May 7 with no large commercial ships passing through the strait. (CCTV) US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that US energy enterprises increased oil and natural gas rig counts for the third consecutive week, marking the first three-week streak of increases since early February. Data showed that for the week ending May 8, the total US oil and natural gas rig count—a leading indicator of future production—increased by 1 to 548, the highest since early April. (Webstock Inc.) According to foreign media reports, sources said that since shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, enterprises such as Saudi Aramco's trading arm (Aramco Trading) and UAE national oil company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) had continued to transport crude oil cargoes through the strait. Although current shipment volumes represented only a fraction of what flowed before Iran closed this oil route nearly 10 weeks ago, the actions of both companies served as a reminder to the market that some supply could still reach global markets. According to sources, Adnoc was among the first companies to attempt shipping crude oil, fuel, and natural gas cargoes out through the strait. The company supplied Upper Zakum crude to clients, a grade typically loaded at Zirku Island, but in this case delivered in Fujairah waters outside the Persian Gulf. According to Vortexa data, at the end of April, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) loaded with Abu Dhabi crude turned off its transponder and sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler data showed that as of Thursday, another VLCC, Fujairah Energy, remained anchored in waters near Abu Dhabi, carrying half a cargo of crude obtained from Zirku Island via ship-to-ship transfer. A charter agreement indicated that the vessel had been temporarily chartered by Adnoc, with plans to load crude between May 15 and 17 for delivery to Asia. (Jin10 Data) Citi stated that the current base case scenario projects Brent crude oil prices to average $110 in Q2 2026, then decline to $95 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. Fitch expects Brent crude prices to remain at $100–110 per barrel during the Strait of Hormuz blockade from May to July, before pulling back to $70 per barrel by September. Additionally, JPMorgan analysts said US gasoline prices "could very well" rise to $5 per gallon, as refineries are prioritizing jet fuel production at the expense of other products. The analyst team noted in a Friday report that in Asia, the region currently hardest hit by the energy crisis, the price shock triggered by the Iran war is transmitting significantly faster through refined product markets such as jet fuel and diesel than through the crude oil market. If refinery operations continue to be constrained by limited crude supply, fuel prices could become "the primary transmission channel for demand destruction." "In this scenario, even if refined product crack spreads widen significantly, crude prices could still stabilize around $100 per barrel. At that point, the next phase of the shock would look less like a traditional crude oil price spike and more like a refining and end-user fuel supply crisis." The product most visibly impacted currently is jet fuel, which is prompting refineries to maximize jet fuel output as much as possible, typically at the cost of reduced diesel production. The knock-on effects have also spread to gasoline production. Analysts said: "This perhaps explains why US gasoline prices have already risen to $4.55 per gallon, and why the risk of gasoline prices reaching $5 can no longer be ignored." (Jin10 Data) Recommended Reading:

SMM May 8 News: Metals market: Overnight base metals showed mixed performance across domestic and overseas markets. LME zinc led the gains with a 1.1% rise, SHFE tin rose 0.76%, LME aluminum fell 1.34%, LME tin fell 1.25%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina most-traded contract fell 0.03%, while the foundry aluminum most-traded contract rose 0.02%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 0.97% to lead the declines, iron ore temporarily settled flat at 815 yuan/mt, and rebar rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke showed mixed performance, with coking coal up 0.46% and coke down 0.11%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.04% and COMEX silver rose 2.09%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.12% and SHFE silver rose 2.49%. PBOC: China's gold reserves stood at 74.64 million ounces (approximately 2,321.56 mt) at the end of April, up 260,000 ounces (approximately 8.09 mt) MoM from 74.38 million ounces (approximately 2,313.48 mt) at the end of March, marking the 18th consecutive month of gold accumulation. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 6:43 AM on May 8, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Domestic tourism during this year's Labour Day holiday reached 325 million trips, up 3.6% YoY] During the Labour Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 325 million trips nationwide, up 3.6% YoY; total domestic tourism spending was 185.492 billion yuan, up 2.9% YoY. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) [MOFCOM spokesperson answered reporters' questions on the EU's ban on funding projects using Chinese inverters] According to media reports, EU officials stated that the EU will ban funding for projects using inverters from China and other "high-risk countries." When asked for China's comment, the MOFCOM spokesperson said China has noted the relevant reports. Without any actual evidence, the EU for the first time designated China as a so-called "high-risk country" and used this as a pretext to ban funding for projects using Chinese inverters. This constitutes stigmatization of China and imposes unfair and discriminatory treatment on Chinese products. China rejects and firmly opposes this. China urges the EU to immediately stop stigmatizing China by labeling it a "high-risk country" and to revoke the unfair and discriminatory practices against Chinese products. China will closely monitor and carefully assess the impact of EU policies on the interests of Chinese enterprises and China-EU industrial and supply chains, and will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (MOFCOM) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.28. New York Fed President Williams said on Thursday that demand for US Treasuries remained strong despite the government's massive borrowing. Williams said the US Fed was watching the government's extremely high borrowing levels "very closely." He noted that while it may be surprising, demand for US Treasuries remained "enormous," and "the US is still seen as the strongest economy in the world" and an ideal safe haven for capital, "even with all the geopolitical issues and other factors, that hasn't changed." Williams also said the US economy had shown considerable resilience amid the energy shock triggered by the Middle East war. He said that given surging energy prices, "the biggest question" was how the situation would evolve, adding that regarding inflation that continued to stay high, the US Fed would "make sure" and commit to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. (Jin10 Data APP) San Francisco Fed President Daly downplayed the divergence in the US Fed's statement, suggesting she would not dissent like some of her colleagues. She said the wording of the statement was less important than actions, and the real signal from the meeting was the unanimous agreement on the decision. Last month, three officials objected to language hinting at future interest rate cuts, arguing that the energy shock and uncertainty from the Iran war made a signal that "rates could go up or down" more appropriate. Daly, who does not have a vote this year, said the public understood the US Fed's price stability mandate. Daly said there were no signs yet that energy prices were pushing up medium- or long-term inflation expectations. "It's too early to tell. If the conflict ends and oil prices pull back without transmitting to the broader economy, the fundamental dynamics from before the conflict are expected to return." She was committed to achieving the 2% inflation target but should not overreact to the expected duration of the energy shock. She said policy was "slightly restrictive," and if the war were resolved, it would pose downward pressure on inflation; the labour market was stable and not generating inflationary pressure. (Jin10 Data APP) [US Fed's Kashkari: Next interest rate move uncertain due to Iran conflict] Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Middle East conflict had added uncertainty to the interest rate outlook. "Given the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, I actually don't know what's going to happen," Kashkari said at an event in Marquette, Michigan. "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, the next interest rate move could very well need to be upward." (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with a 9.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 0.2% probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Data to be released today include: US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May preliminary one-year inflation expectations, US May preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, US March wholesale sales MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted trade balance, Switzerland April consumer confidence index, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, and Canada April employment figures. In addition, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will open. 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech; US Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech; and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak on global imbalances. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 2.71% and Brent up 2.13%. Citi's global head of commodities research Max Layton said oil prices would continue to swing wildly until there was clarity on whether Iran and Trump could reach a deal. "It's hard to predict whether Iran will reach a deal, and in an environment where you simply don't know whether a deal will be reached, the market is inevitably news-driven and will experience wild swings." Crude oil fell for a third consecutive trading day on Thursday. Layton said the decline was partly driven by "the market's hope that the two sides could begin deal negotiations." However, physical crude oil market pressures in the Middle East persisted. Traders said that a key crude oil loading terminal in Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz, experienced loading delays in April, disrupting shipping plans and potentially delaying deliveries to buyers. Layton said the global physical crude oil market had accumulated "quite substantial buffer inventory" of approximately 700 million to 800 million barrels over the past 12 months. "We are burning through this inventory rapidly," he said, but the impact would "manifest gradually over a longer period." He added that before actually lowering oil price forecasts, he needed to see whether Iran was ready to seriously reach a deal with the US. Last month, after the second round of US-Iran peace talks failed to take place, Citi raised its Brent crude benchmark price forecast by $15 to $110/barrel and pushed back its baseline expectation for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. (Jin10 Data APP) International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said the agency was prepared to release more crude oil from its strategic reserves if war-induced supply disruptions persisted. He added that the agency had so far released 20% of its available oil reserves to ease rising prices. Releasing additional crude oil onto the international market would limit demand for US crude at all levels. Demand side, Marathon's refinery in Carson, California reported that it planned to conduct flaring activities from May 8 to May 12 due to maintenance work. (Wallstreetcn)

Turkey's crude steel production grew by 5.3% year-on-year to 9.7 million metric tons (mt) in the first quarter of 2026, supported by a 6.4% output increase in March to 3.3 million mt. Meanwhile, domestic finished steel consumption surged 8.9% year-on-year to 9.9 million mt in Q1, but the foreign trade balance weakened as steel exports dropped 6.8% to 3.5 million mt while imports climbed 2.6% to 4.3 million mt, pushing the export-to-import ratio down to 77.7%. Although Middle East supply chain shifts and reduced Chinese export aggression opened market opportunities in Europe, producers face mounting operational pressures and narrowing profit margins due to scrap prices approaching $400/mt, surging freight rates, and stringent EU import regulations.

India, the world’s second-largest bullion market, has seen gold and silver imports grind to a halt for five weeks since April 1, driving domestic prices to a premium of over $20 an ounce above international levels for the first time since early February.

SMM May 7: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.43%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.76%, SHFE lead fell 0.36%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, SHFE tin rose 3.16%, and SHFE nickel fell 3.33%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.85%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.49%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.08%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 2.03%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 4.79%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.55%, rebar rose 0.68%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.29%, and stainless steel fell 1.12%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.22%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.2%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.22%, LME aluminum fell 1.16%, LME lead rose 0.23%, LME zinc fell 0.29%, LME tin fell 1.71%, and LME nickel fell 0.13%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.39% and COMEX silver rose 1.35%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.43%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.71%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.35%, closing at 2,355.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 7, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Nickel: On May 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 5,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations resulted in a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan was achieved for the day. [HKEX CEO: LME warehouses in Hong Kong nearing full capacity] HKEX CEO Bonnie Y. Chan said that the storage capacity of a series of LME-approved warehouses in Hong Kong was nearing saturation. The LME began approving metal warehouses in Hong Kong last year. Speaking at a seminar during LME Asia Week in Hong Kong, Chan said the LME currently had 15 warehouses in Hong Kong, compared with just 4 a year ago. She called this an important milestone in establishing physical market connectivity. LME and Hong Kong Exchanges will explore more collaborative projects, including futures and RMB-denominated products, to build a comprehensive commodities ecosystem in Asia. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.01. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly appeared to be an inflationary shock to the economy. Although the impact on employment and economic growth was not yet evident, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases were intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflation' shock," meaning the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation and forces the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk, Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is just an inflation shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 93.5%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut probability of 6.5%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 86.5%, with cumulative probabilities of a 25-basis-point cut at 13.0% and a 50-basis-point cut at 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: On the first day of resumed trading in the Japanese market, the yen broadly stabilized against other G10 currencies and Asian currencies. However, analysts noted that the yen's downside room against the US dollar is likely to be limited due to potential foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities. Analysts at Maybank stated in a foreign exchange research report that the unpredictability of Japanese authorities' actions would limit the upside room for USD/JPY in the short term. Given that three suspected interventions have already occurred after the currency pair breached the 157.00 level, the market is now increasingly wary of pushing the dollar above that level. (Jin10 Data) Data: China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate are scheduled for release today. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.86% and Brent up 0.87%. The market weighed the prospects of a Middle East peace agreement. A decline in US crude oil inventory last week supported oil prices. US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -648,000 barrels, compared to the previous value of -796,000 barrels. US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -2.313 million barrels, versus expectations of -3.291 million barrels and a previous value of -6.234 million barrels. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was -5.224 million barrels, compared to the previous value of -7.121 million barrels. According to federal data released Wednesday, US energy inventories continued to decline rapidly due to supply shocks caused by the Middle East war, highlighting the tightening supply problem as the energy crisis continued to spread. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), refined product inventories, including diesel, plunged by 1.3 million barrels last week to the lowest level since April 2003. These inventories are currently 11% below the five-year seasonal average. Due to refinery shutdowns, diesel prices recently hit record highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. (CNN) According to a person familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is exploring the use of oil resources beneath US military bases and other Department of Defense sites to replenish the nation's dwindling emergency reserves. The source said no decision has been made on this potential move. This comes as the US government has pledged to explore innovative ways to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was further depleted during the Iran war. (Jin10 Data) According to a foreign media survey, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month as the ongoing Iran war continued to obstruct Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further production declines in Kuwait and Iran. The survey showed that Kuwait saw the largest production drop last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports have fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 7 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE tin continued its strong momentum from the previous day's session, ultimately closing up 5.01%. SHFE nickel fell 2.68%. LME tin led the gains with a remarkable 9.01% increase, LME copper rose 2.22%, and LME zinc gained 1.52%. LME aluminum fell 1.02%, LME nickel dropped 2.22%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.13%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 1.03%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 1.15%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.26%, and rebar gained 0.68%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.92%, and coke dropped 0.64%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.95%, and COMEX silver gained 5.77%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.98%, and SHFE silver gained 2.8%. As of 6:45 AM on May 7, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China] On May 6, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about US President Trump's recent remarks concerning China. In response, Lin Jian stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) People's Bank of China: The weighted average interest rate on newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2026 was 3.06% . (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.49 to 98.02. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly resembles an inflationary shock to the economy. While the impact on employment and economic growth is not yet apparent, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases are intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflationary' shock" — the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation, forcing the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk — Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is simply an inflationary shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." (Jin10 Data APP) Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against instinctively cutting interest rates in response to faster productivity growth, as such a phenomenon can sometimes push up inflation. In prepared remarks released ahead of a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday local time, Goolsbee said the US Fed's response to faster productivity growth "depends in large part on whether the productivity growth happens unexpectedly or is expected to happen in the future." He said in the first scenario, inflation could be suppressed, allowing for interest rate cuts. In the latter scenario, additional investment and spending driven by productivity growth could push up inflation, requiring higher interest rates. Additionally, he emphasized the need to be wary of consumption and investment driven by future growth expectations. "The more intense the hype, the greater the need for rate hikes to prevent overheating," he said. (Jin10 Data APP) St. Louis Fed President Musalem said there is significant uncertainty surrounding the US economic and monetary policy outlook, but he believes that relative to employment risks, inflation risks are currently rising. Musalem said on Wednesday: "Inflation is clearly above our 2% target. We face risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. Based on my assessment, risks are tilting more toward inflation rather than employment." Musalem said the US Fed's benchmark policy rate is currently at a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, or possibly slightly accommodative. He said: "There are very plausible scenarios that require us to hold the current policy rate unchanged for a period of time." However, he also noted that he sees scenarios that could require officials to cut interest rates further, or to raise rates. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 93.5%, with a 6.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 86.5%, with a 13.0% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will be released. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 5.93% and Brent down 7.2%. FXPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in a report that as the US is unwilling to further escalate tensions in the conflict with Iran, the oil market has now priced in a peace deal as the base case scenario. "Once shipping resumes quickly, tankers trapped in the Strait of Hormuz will release supply in a concentrated burst in the short term, pushing down Brent and WTI crude prices." However, he added that since global inventories have already been depleted and repairs to damaged infrastructure in Gulf states still require time, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this year. "The decline in Brent and WTI prices will likely be very rapid but will not last long." (Jin10 Data APP) According to market observer The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 70 minutes before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching consensus on a "14-point" agreement to end the war, crude oil short positions worth approximately $920 million were established. At 3:40 AM ET today (3:40 PM Beijing time), with no major news, the market established nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts. In notional value, this trade was approximately $920 million — an unusually large transaction for the 3:40 AM time slot. 70 minutes later at 4:50 AM ET (4:40 PM Beijing time), Axios reported that the US was "close to" reaching a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran war. By 7:00 AM ET (7:00 PM Beijing time), oil prices had fallen more than 12%, and the aforementioned crude oil short positions had unrealized gains of approximately $125 million. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a foreign media survey, as the Iran conflict continued to hinder Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further declines in Kuwait and Iran production. The survey showed Kuwait had the largest production decline last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports had fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) (Jin10 Data APP) US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was at its lowest since the week of December 6, 2024, and domestic crude oil production was at its lowest since the week of January 30, 2026. (Jin10 Data APP)

Editor's Note: During the Labour Day holiday when the Chinese market was closed, global macro developments, commodity markets, and ex-China policy dynamics continued to evolve, with multiple external factors potentially impacting post-holiday market performance. To help market participants accurately grasp market trends and conduct rational market analysis, SMM has systematically compiled key macro developments and major industry news during the holiday, along with a summary of this week's critical data and event periods, for industry reference. Internationally, geopolitical developments, energy landscape, ex-China monetary policy, and trade policy all saw significant changes. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, intermittently disrupting global energy markets and briefly driving international oil prices into a rapid short-term rise. Major global central bank policies continued to diverge. The US Fed released its latest policy signal — New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that if inflation continues to pull back toward the 2% policy target, the US Fed will cut interest rates at an appropriate time. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, officially reversing its previous accommodative monetary policy cycle, further widening the divergence in global liquidity landscape. On the energy export front, according to Bloomberg on May 4, US crude oil exports continued to climb over the past nine weeks, with cumulative exports exceeding 250 million barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia to reclaim the position of the world's largest crude oil exporter. Global trade and foreign exchange markets also saw notable shifts. In trade, according to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that due to the EU's failure to fulfill a previously agreed trade deal, the US would impose additional tariffs on automobiles and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25% — subsequent changes in the global trade landscape warrant continued attention. In the foreign exchange market, Japan intervened in the currency market three times between April 30 and May 4. A relevant official from Japan's Ministry of Finance simultaneously interpreted related IMF rules, explicitly classifying the three-day intervention operations as a single operation, with a clear intent to stabilize the yen exchange rate. On industrial policy, Indonesia introduced resource export control measures, planning to levy export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel products, which may impact global energy and non-ferrous metal supply chains, pricing systems, and related commodity markets. This week, major economic data in and outside China will be released in quick succession. Highly watched data including China's foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves data, China's import and export data (TBD), and US April non-farm payrolls data will be published sequentially. Meanwhile, SMM will comprehensively review price movements across metal categories during the holiday, and combining the latest variables in and outside China, is expected to publish post-holiday market trend outlooks to provide professional reference for industry trading, production, and strategic planning. Stay tuned. ※Holiday Macro News ►Domestic [Baiyun Airport Port Sees Record-High Canton Fair Foreign Arrivals Exceeding 540,000] On the last day of the Labour Day holiday, coinciding with the closing of the 139th Canton Fair, reporters learned from the Baiyun Border Inspection Station that since the opening of this Canton Fair, as of 0:00 on May 5, Baiyun Airport port handled over 1.14 million inbound and outbound passengers, up 14.5% YoY. Foreign business travelers became the core driver of port passenger flow growth, with inbound and outbound foreigners exceeding 540,000, up 20.8% YoY, setting a new historical record for port passenger flow during the same Canton Fair period. (CCTV News) [National Railways Carried Over 100 Million Passengers Cumulatively During Labour Day Holiday] According to China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., national railways carried 20.383 million passengers on May 4. Since the launch of Labour Day holiday transport on April 29, national railways have cumulatively carried 117 million passengers, with transport operations safe, stable, and orderly. On May 5, return passenger flows continue to rise, with national railways expected to carry 23 million passengers and 2,225 additional passenger trains planned. (CCTV News) [China Bulk Commodity Price Index at 132.1 Points in April, Up 20.2% YoY] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Bulk Commodity Price Index on May 5. The index stood at 132.1 points in April, up 1.7% MoM and up 20.2% YoY. Among the 50 bulk commodities under key monitoring by the federation, 38 saw MoM price increases in April. Among them, paraxylene, methanol, and polypropylene led the gains, up 22.4%, 14.5%, and 11.8% MoM respectively. ►Overseas [US Illegal Tariff Refunds Delayed by One Day, Earliest Distribution Starting May 12] US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stated that the first batch of electronic refunds for tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court is expected to begin distribution no earlier than May 12. The US Court of International Trade had previously expected refunds to start on May 11, but this has been delayed by one day for undisclosed reasons. (CCTV News) [Senior Iranian Commander: Iran Is Controlling the Strait of Hormuz, US Cannot Reverse the Current Situation] Senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Yadollah Javani confirmed in an interview on May 4 that Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz, that any passing vessel must obtain Iranian permission to ensure safe passage, and that hostile forces' ships attempting forced transit will be dealt with resolutely. Yadollah Javani dismissed US President Trump's claim of "clearing" the strait's shipping lanes for humanitarian reasons as a lie, stating that Iran would prevail if the confrontation escalated. He said the US could never restore the situation to before February 28, nor reverse the current state of affairs. (CCTV News) [Trump refuses to confirm whether US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains in effect] On May 4, US President Trump refused to clarify whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remained in effect during an interview. When asked whether the ceasefire had ended and whether military strikes could resume, Trump said: "I can't tell you that. If I answered, you'd say this guy isn't smart enough to be president." Earlier that day, Trump warned in an interview that if Iran attempted to attack US ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, they "will be totally destroyed." However, he subsequently stated that from a military standpoint, the conflict with Iran was "essentially over." (CCTV) [Qatar condemns attack on UAE oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz] Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 4th, strongly condemning a drone attack on an oil tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the UAE while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a serious violation of international law and the principle of freedom of navigation. The statement said Qatar firmly opposes using the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool, called for the unconditional reopening of the strait, and emphasized that freedom of navigation through this vital waterway is an established principle that cannot be compromised. The statement noted that the continued closure of the strait would jeopardize the vital interests of countries in the region. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its support for all measures taken by the UAE to protect its assets. (Xinhua) [US Fed "No. 3" speaks: Interest rate cuts will eventually come if inflation pulls back, but timing has been forced to delay] New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that as long as inflation pulls back toward the US Fed's 2% target as expected, the US Fed will eventually need to cut interest rates . However, due to inflation running higher than expectations this year, the timing of interest rate cuts has been forced to delay, though the overall policy direction has not fundamentally changed. Williams told reporters after delivering a speech in New York on Monday: "As inflation moves lower, we will eventually need to cut interest rates at some point to match fundamentals. Inflation has been higher than previously expected this year, and in my view, this only delays the timing of rate cuts and does not change the overall policy logic." Last week, the US Fed decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but internal policy disagreements became prominent, with three officials opposing the easing bias implied in the meeting statement, preferring more neutral language to release signals that rates could move either up or down going forward. Regarding the controversial wording, Williams was clear in his stance: he fully endorsed the current statement's language, believing that based on day-to-day economic data, there was no sufficient reason to support a rate hike in the short term. [IMF Chief Warns: Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Trigger More Severe Inflation and Growth Shocks] The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that inflation has begun to intensify, and if the Middle East war continues into 2027 with oil prices rising to around $125 per barrel, the global economy could face a "worse scenario." IMF Managing Director Georgieva stated that the continuation of the war means the organization's previous assumption of only a mild slowdown in global economic growth and only a slight edge up in prices no longer holds. Therefore, the "adverse scenario" set by the IMF has effectively begun to materialize. Speaking at a conference hosted by the Milken Institute, Georgieva noted that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored for now and financial conditions have not yet tightened, but this could change if the war persists. [RBA Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points as Expected — Entering Wait-and-See Mode After "Triple Hike"?] The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, completely reversing last year's monetary easing cycle. The move underscored the central bank's determination to suppress stubborn inflation, making it an outlier among major global central banks — decisively embarking on a new tightening cycle while the US-Iran conflict fueled uncertainty and many central banks chose to stand pat. The RBA's nine-member policy committee approved the rate hike with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against . RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a press conference at 1:30 PM Beijing time to explain the policy decision. The committee emphasized in its statement: "After three rate hikes, monetary policy now has sufficient room to respond to changing conditions , and the committee will focus on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, taking all necessary measures to achieve its objectives." [Japan Intervened to Boost Yen on "3 Consecutive Days" During Holiday, Claims It "Counts as 1" Under IMF Rule of "Maximum 3 Interventions Within 6 Months"] Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on three consecutive days during Golden Week, but Japanese officials promptly cited IMF rules stating that the three actions "count as one" — a statement reflecting the government's careful calculation of intervention frequency. A Ministry of Finance official told reporters on May 5 that under relevant IMF regulations, foreign exchange market interventions over three consecutive business days are considered a "single action."The official made the above remarks while accompanying Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama at an international conference held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. By this calculation, the three interventions on April 30, May 2 (Friday), and May 4 (Monday) were counted as one combined action. The official added that even when Japan was on public holiday, interventions could still be counted as long as global markets were open; May 4 was therefore recognized as the last of three consecutive business days starting from April 30. This round of intervention began on April 30, triggered when USD/JPY broke above 160.72. According to Bloomberg's analysis, authorities deployed approximately $34.5 billion that day to support the yen, and the exchange rate rebounded to around 155. However, the effectiveness of the subsequent two interventions diminished notably—the yen briefly strengthened after each intervention before pulling back again. The two subsequent interventions reportedly cost a combined approximately $20 billion. In total, the three interventions in this round are estimated to have exceeded $54 billion in scale. ※Industry News and Corporate Developments [Indonesia Plans to Impose Export and Windfall Taxes on Coal and Nickel to Ease Subsidy Pressure] Indonesia plans to impose export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel as one of the measures to offset the growing subsidy costs in the national budget. Indonesia's Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the proposed measures are still under discussion with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. "Discussions with the Energy Ministry are ongoing, but what is clear is that the related revenue will be sufficient to help bridge the subsidy gap." Purbaya noted that coal and nickel exports had not previously been subject to export taxes, creating regulatory loopholes that could foster under-invoicing and smuggling, while also limiting customs authorities' ability to inspect goods before shipment. The implementation of export taxes is expected to grant the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DJBC) greater authority to conduct inspections before goods are exported, thereby helping to close tax loopholes and prevent fiscal leakage. (Wallstreetcn) [250 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Shipped Outside China, US Inventory Falls for Four Consecutive Weeks—How Long Can the World's "Last Supplier" Hold Out?] Over the past nine weeks, a large number of tankers sailed intensively toward the US, loading up along the coast of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico before heading to destinations such as Japan, Thailand, and even Australia. During this period, the US cumulatively exported over 250 million barrels of crude oil outside China, once again surpassing Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil exporter. Against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz nearing shutdown and Middle Eastern supply disruptions, the US has effectively assumed the role of a critical global energy source. However, this rapid surge in export volume also exposed potential risks. US domestic inventory has been declining notably, with total crude oil and refined product reserves falling for four consecutive weeks and dropping below historical averages, while the production side also faced pressure to maintain output. (Jin Shi Data) [Trump: US Is Taking "Hundreds of Millions of Barrels of Oil" from Venezuela] On May 4, US President Trump spoke at a small business summit on the topic of energy cooperation with Venezuela. Trump stated that the US currently has a "good relationship" with Venezuela and said related actions were "going well." He noted that major energy enterprises had begun entering Venezuela to develop resources. On energy cooperation, Trump said the US was obtaining "hundreds of millions of barrels of oil" from Venezuela and shipping them to US regions including Houston for refining, describing the bilateral relationship as "almost like a partnership." He also emphasized that US oil and natural gas production had reached record highs. (Wallstreetcn) [Trump: Will Impose 25% Tariff on EU Cars and Trucks Exported to the US Next Week] According to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that because the EU had not fulfilled the trade agreement already reached between the two sides, the US would impose additional tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25%. Trump said that if relevant enterprises set up factories and produced in the US, they could be exempt from tariffs. [Hainan LNG Phase II Project Achieved Major Milestone, Expected to Be Fully Completed by 2027] According to PipeChina, a major oil and gas infrastructure project in China — the Hainan LNG Phase II Project — completed the 821-mt dome air-raising operation for Tank No. 3, marking a major milestone for the project. The Hainan LNG receiving terminal Phase I project has construction completed and commissioned 2 LNG storage tanks of 160,000 m³ each, while the Phase II project is constructing 3 new prestressed concrete full-containment LNG storage tanks of 220,000 m³ each. Currently, the overall progress of the Phase II project is approaching 50%, and it is expected to be fully completed by 2027. Once completed, it will add 400 million m³ of gas storage capacity, doubling the peak shaving capacity, and significantly enhancing emergency peak shaving and secure supply capabilities for the entire Hainan Island and the South China coastal region. (CCTV News) [Dongyang Guangming: Subsidiary Signs Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with Estimated Total Value of 16 Billion to 19 Billion Yuan] Dongyang Guangming announced that its subsidiary Dongguan Dongyang Guang Cloud Computing Technology Co., Ltd. signed a Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with a certain Enterprise A, with an estimated total contract value ranging from 16 billion yuan to 19 billion yuan (tax inclusive). The contract term is 60 months after order acceptance, with service fees paid monthly. This cooperation aims to deepen the company's presence in AI computing power and high performance server supporting services, but faces multiple uncertainties including policy and regulatory risks, performance capability, and funding, with uncertain impact on the company's future performance. ※Weekly Macro Preview May 6 Data to be released include China's April RatingDog Services PMI, France's March industrial output MoM, France's April Services PMI final, Germany's April Services PMI final, Eurozone April Services PMI final, UK April Services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also notable: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. May 7 Data to be released include France's March trade balance, Switzerland's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, and China's April foreign exchange reserves. Also notable: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. May 8 Data to be released include Germany's March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's March seasonally adjusted trade balance, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, Switzerland's April consumer confidence index, Canada's April employment, US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May 1-year inflation expectations preliminary, US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary, and US March wholesale sales MoM. Also notable: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; China's refined oil products will enter a new price adjustment window. May 9 Data to be released include China's April trade balance in US dollar terms (TBD) and China's April trade balance (TBD). Also notable: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a panel discussion at the Hoover Institution's 2026 Monetary Policy Conference.

In March 2026, the global steel market experienced a fierce geopolitical "sudden chill." According to the latest data from WSA, global crude steel production in March fell by 4.2% year-on-year to 159.9 million tons. The US-Iran conflict that erupted on Feb 28, and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have completely disrupted the spring recovery rhythm of the global steel supply chain, with the shadow of energy crises and logistical interruptions rapidly spreading worldwide.

SMM April 21 News: Metals Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals mostly fell, with SHFE lead being the only one to rise, up 0.48%. SHFE aluminum led the decline with a drop of 1.23%, while the rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.95%, and the casting aluminum alloy front-month contract fell 1.36%. In addition, the lithium carbonate front-month contract fell 2.84%, the polysilicon front-month contract rose 2.56%, and the silicon metal front-month contract fell 0.35%. The Europe containerized freight front-month contract rose 1.37% to 2,143.4. On the ferrous metals front, all rose except stainless steel. Stainless steel fell 1%, while hot-rolled coil and rebar both rose over 0.7%, with hot-rolled coil up 0.72% and rebar up 0.76%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.53% and coke rose 2.42%. On the overseas market front, as of 15:03, overseas base metals all fell except LME lead. LME lead rose 0.28%, while the rest of the metals fell less than 1%. On the precious metals front, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.7% and COMEX silver fell 1.35%. In China, SHFE gold fell 1.08% and SHFE silver fell 2.75%. In addition, the platinum front-month contract fell 1.08% and the palladium front-month contract fell 1.01%. Market data as of 15:03 today Macro Front China: [Good Start! China's Raw Material Industry Value-Added Up 4.6% YoY in Q1] According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning, China's raw material industry achieved a good start in Q1. Data showed that in Q1, the value-added of the raw material industry was up 4.6% YoY. Among them: the value-added of the petrochemical and chemical industry was up 7.4% YoY, and the value-added of the non-ferrous metals industry was up 2.6% YoY. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated that in Q1, the cement industry reduced and retired nearly 30 million mt of capacity through capacity replacement with reduction. Meanwhile, the revenue of the green building materials industry grew steadily, and the number of certified green building material products increased 5% compared to the end of 2025. Innovation achievements in the raw material sector also accelerated, with China's independently developed T1200-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber industrial-grade product making its global debut, expected to be deeply applied in strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Fully Activate the Innovation Engine, Accelerate Frontier Material Development and Key Material Breakthroughs] Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that in Q1, they implemented the new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries in detail, focused on promoting the optimization and upgrading of capacity structure, and the raw material industry achieved a good start, with more vigorous transformation steps and a stronger industrial foundation. Next, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to thoroughly implement the deployment of the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, adhere to a combination of “strengthening the fundamentals” and “fostering the new,” and enhance overall planning and policy supply. On the one hand, it will focus on solidifying the foundation for upgrading traditional industries, promoting optimization of existing capacity and a green, safe transition; on the other hand, it will fully energize the innovation engine, accelerate the layout of frontier materials and breakthroughs in key materials, and provide more solid and reliable material support for developing new quality productive forces and advancing new-type industrialization. (Jinshi Data) [MIIT: Q1 Industrial Robot Production up 33.2% YoY; Drones, AI Glasses, and More Becoming Increasingly Diverse] This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to brief on industrial and information technology development in Q1 2026. In Q1, the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence accelerated and expanded in the electronics and consumer goods industries; end-use products such as drones and AI glasses became increasingly diverse; and production of products such as industrial robots and integrated circuits rose 33.2% and 24.3% YoY, respectively. (CCTV News) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Recorded a Net Injection of 4 billion yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net injection of 4 billion yuan on the day. (Jinshi Data) US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index was at 98.14, up 0.09%. Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices and supported the dollar; a plunge in US consumer confidence weighed on the real economy; and Japan’s manufacturing sector was under pressure. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman nominee Warsh was set to face a hearing, and how to balance interest rate cuts and inflation became the market focus. (Jinshi Data) The US Congress will hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh will pledge to lawmakers to maintain strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh said interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and monetary policy should not become a tool for short-term political objectives; he also stressed that the US Fed’s credibility comes from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to differing views, and politicians expressing opinions on interest rates is not a real threat; rather, it is the US Fed’s own discipline and rigorous approach that sustains its independent status. He emphasized that price stability is the US Fed’s shield and pledged to take full responsibility for it, “making no excuses and shirking no responsibility.”Regarding the continuous expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries in the post-crisis era, Warsh also issued a warning, arguing that the Fed should not extend its reach into fiscal policy or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21. In addition, on April 21, according to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, Citi laid out clear bullish reasons for interest rate cuts in its latest research report, arguing that crude oil supply disruptions were only temporary disturbances and that the path to interest rate cuts, though bumpy, was clearly directional; Deutsche Bank, however, poured cold water on such optimism, warning that US Fed policy was already at a neutral position and was expected to maintain current interest rates indefinitely. As the two major investment banks clashed in their views, the upcoming March retail sales data is set to become the key litmus test to break the deadlock. This data will not only reveal the true destructive impact of high oil prices on core consumption but will also directly determine the US Fed's near-term policy path. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include the US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventory MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany's April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March jobless claims, Switzerland's March trade balance, and the Eurozone April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. In addition, attention should also be paid to the US Senate Banking Committee's confirmation hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and European Central Bank President Lagarde's keynote speech at the 75th anniversary annual reception of the Association of German Banks. Furthermore, China is about to open a new round of refined oil price adjustment window. On the crude oil front: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 1.05% and Brent down 0.73%. The market held optimistic expectations that US-Iran negotiations would continue this week. According to information from maritime intelligence firm Tanker Trackers, a tanker belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company returned to Iran via the relevant maritime blockade line after completing the offloading of approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil in Indonesia. The tanker is currently heading to Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, and is expected to arrive on the 22nd local time. The tanker reportedly departed Iran in late March, heading for the Riau Islands in Indonesia. (CCTV News) According to foreign media reports, gasoline prices in Australia fell for the third consecutive week as government measures eased the upward pressure on gas station prices triggered by the Iran war. According to data from the Australian Institute of Petroleum, in the week ending last Sunday, the national average gasoline price dropped about 5% to A$2.129 per liter (approximately $1.5279), but remained about 18% higher than at the outbreak of the conflict in early March. Diesel prices fell about 3% to A$3.089 per liter. It was reported that Canberra attempted to ease the domestic fuel crisis by sending delegations to communicate with major trading partners, covering oil transportation costs, relaxing diesel standards, cutting fuel taxes, and tapping into reserves. In addition, the government was conducting a publicity campaign aimed at encouraging Australians to reduce driving. Despite being a major energy producer and exporter, Australia still relied on imports from outside China for most of its refined fuel, and its fuel reserves were among the lowest in developed countries, making the country highly vulnerable to disruptions in global energy supply. (Jin Shi Data APP) SMM Daily Review ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 21 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.64%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.45%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.76%. SHFE tin dropped 0.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.69%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.49%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2.38%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 3.86%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 2.19%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 0.64%, rebar rose 0.76%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.87%, stainless steel fell 0.53%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.49%, the most-traded coke contract rose 1.96%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum fell 0.89%, LME lead fell 0.1%, LME zinc fell 0.78%. LME tin dropped 0.68%. LME nickel fell 0.6%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 1.32%, COMEX silver dropped 0.21%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.76%, the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 2.7%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.18%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.78%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract edged down 0.01%, closing at 2,114.1 points. As of 11:40 on April 21, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,420 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,315 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory finally ended its 24-day consecutive decline...... Macro Front China: [Good Start! China's Raw Material Industry Value-Added Output Up 4.6% YoY in Q1] According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning, China's raw material industry achieved a good start in Q1. Data showed that in Q1, the value-added output of the raw material industry was up 4.6% YoY. Specifically, the petrochemical and chemical industry's value added was up 7.4% YoY, and the non-ferrous metals industry's value added was up 2.6% YoY. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated that in Q1, the cement industry reduced and retired nearly 30 million mt of capacity through volume replacement. Meanwhile, the green building materials industry saw steady revenue growth, with the number of certified green building material products increasing 5% compared to the end of 2025. Innovation achievements in the raw material sector also accelerated, as China's independently developed T1200-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber industrial-grade product was launched globally for the first time, and is expected to be extensively applied in strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Fully Activate Innovation Engines, Accelerate Frontier Material Deployment and Key Material Breakthroughs] Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that in Q1, detailed implementation of the new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries was carried out, with focused efforts to promote capacity structure optimization and upgrading. The raw materials industry achieved a good start, with more vigorous transformation and a stronger industrial foundation. Going forward, MIIT will thoroughly implement the deployments outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, adhere to the combination of "consolidating fundamentals" and "fostering new growth," and strengthen overall planning and policy supply. On one hand, efforts will focus on solidifying the foundation for traditional industry upgrading, promoting optimization of existing capacity and green and safe transformation; on the other hand, innovation engines will be fully activated to accelerate frontier material deployment and key material breakthroughs, providing more solid and reliable material support for developing new quality productive forces and advancing new-type industrialization. (Jin10 Data) [MIIT: Industrial Robot Production Up 33.2% YoY in Q1, Drones, AI Glasses and Other Products Increasingly Diversified] This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the industrial and information technology development in Q1 2026. In Q1, new technologies such as artificial intelligence accelerated their application in the electronics and consumer goods industries. End-use products such as drones and AI glasses became increasingly diversified, with industrial robot and integrated circuit production up 33.2% and 24.3% YoY, respectively. (CCTV News) [PBOC Achieved Net Injection of 4 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 4 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.11% at 98.16. The US Congress was set to hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh was to pledge to lawmakers his strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh stated that interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and that monetary policy should not be used as a tool for short-term political objectives. He also emphasized that the US Fed's credibility stems from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to diverse opinions, and that politicians expressing views on interest rates does not pose a real threat. On the contrary, it is the US Fed's own discipline and rigor that sustains its independent status. He stressed that price stability is the US Fed's talisman and pledged to assume full responsibility for it, "making no excuses and passing no blame." Warsh also warned against the post-crisis expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries, arguing that it should not extend its reach into fiscal or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee was to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh believes that upcoming productivity growth may give the US Fed room to lower interest rates, provided that higher productivity enables low-inflation economic growth. However, economist Ed Yardeni, who also expects the economy to benefit from technological advances this decade, disagrees that such an outcome would justify lowering interest rates. Yardeni wrote: "While we share Warsh's optimism on productivity, we have fundamentally different views on what this outcome means for monetary policy." Yardeni argues that faster growth will raise the natural rate of interest, or R*, the rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. He wrote: "If the US Fed lowers the federal funds rate below R*, the risk is that it fuels financial speculation and instability." (Jin Shi Data) On other currencies: The exact timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike remains uncertain, with significant uncertainty. However, Goldman Sachs analyst Akira Otani said a rate hike in July remains possible. The economist wrote in a research note: "By then, all the data needed to assess the impact of high oil prices on the economy, wages, and prices will be available." The Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged this month but may lower its economic growth expectations and raise its FY2026 inflation forecast to reflect heightened tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Otani added that the Bank of Japan may consider the uncertainty surrounding this outlook to be high. (Jinshi Data) Data: Today's scheduled releases include US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventories MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany April ZEW economic sentiment index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March claimant count, Switzerland March trade balance, and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index. In addition, attention should be paid to the US Senate Banking Committee hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and ECB President Lagarde's keynote speech at the 75th anniversary reception of the Association of German Banks. Furthermore, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open in China. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.58%. Signs of resumed negotiations between Iran and the US boosted market sentiment, while international oil prices slid further on expectations of easing tensions. (Wallstreetcn) Wallstreetcn noted that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approved the dispatch of a negotiating delegation to Islamabad on the night of April 20. According to Xinhua, citing the US Axios website, US Vice President Vance was expected to depart for the Pakistani capital on the morning of April 21 Eastern Time, with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner also heading to join the negotiations. (Wallstreetcn) The market is still waiting to see whether some form of consultation will take place in Islamabad. Investors generally expect that the likelihood of reaching some preliminary agreement is higher than that of a comprehensive deal. Currently, the market is mainly reacting to a sentiment shift from optimism to concern. However, it is widely believed that the most severe phase of the crisis and the accompanying energy supply disruptions may have passed. (Jinshi Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►