Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987.5/mt, hovering around the daily moving average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,994.5/mt before weakening, touching a low of $1,972/mt before the close, and finally closed at $1,979/mt after a slight rebound, down $16.5/mt, a decrease of 0.83%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt, fell to a low of 16,740 yuan/mt after opening, then rebounded to a high of 16,820 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,800 yuan/mt after brief consolidation, forming a doji, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, an increase of 0.27%. Data released by the State Administration for Market Regulation showed that 25.745 million new business entities were established nationwide in 2025, with rapid growth in enterprises related to emerging industries and future industries, indicating strong innovation momentum. Among them, frontier fields such as humanoid robots, civil aviation, and generative artificial intelligence led the gains. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased less than expected, indicating that layoffs remained at a low level. The third round of indirect talks between the US and Iran concluded, with the Iranian foreign minister stating that the two sides were close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical negotiations would be held in Vienna next Monday. The foreign minister of Oman, the mediating party, described the talks as having made significant progress. Media reports indicated that differences between the two sides remained significant, with the US insisting that Iran completely dismantle its nuclear facilities and transfer all enriched uranium out of the country; Iran proposed stopping nuclear activities for a limited number of years, after which enrichment activities would resume within a regulated regional framework. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong and Honglu lead was quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Some suppliers completed month-end inventory clearance, with individual large discount quotations narrowing, while other suppliers followed the market in shipments, mainly with cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters' production sites. Few secondary lead smelters had resumed production, with some having delayed plans; secondary refined lead quotations were scarce, and prices were firm, with mainstream producing areas offering at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises resumed work gradually, but most still had certain inventory, resulting in low enthusiasm; spot order market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On February 26, LME lead inventory was 286,300 mt, flat from the previous trading day. As of February 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM continued to accumulate. Today's lead price forecast: This week, spot order procurement demand from downstream enterprises remained primarily for small, rigid needs. Many downstream enterprises were still consuming lead ingots stockpiled before the holiday after resuming work, and post-holiday lead ingot consumption appeared slightly weak. On the refined lead supply side, large-scale primary lead smelters in Henan maintained stable supply during the holiday. Smelter inventories accumulated significantly after the holiday, while the pace of production resumptions for secondary lead smelting enterprises that halted during the Chinese New Year was noticeably delayed compared to previous years. Under the current scrap battery and lead price conditions, secondary lead enterprises remained in a loss-making state upon resuming work, and concentrated production resumptions are expected to be delayed until March. This week, the supply and demand in the spot refined lead market have not fully recovered. Lead prices have moderate support at lower levels but struggle to rise due to pressure from increasing domestic inventory. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue moving sideways.

【3.28 Morning Meeting Minutes】Prices of low-grade and high-grade nickel ores from the Philippines remained stable, while prices of medium and high-grade Philippine ores rose slightly again. The main reasons stem from two aspects: 1. As an exporter of the Philippines, Indonesia's nickel ore prices climbed and are still expected to rise, providing some support to the export prices of Philippine nickel ores. 2. From the supply and demand perspective, the Surigao region began to offer and ship products this month, but the supply recovery was slow due to weather impacts. On the demand side, most domestic nickel pig iron plants still maintained low inventory levels, and the need for just-in-time procurement of raw materials was strong.

SMM March 20 Update: Raw Material End: In the petroleum coke market, overall performance improved during the week, with petroleum coke prices consolidating at high levels, especially in the latter half of the week when prices slightly improved. Specifically, CNOOC's refinery auctioned petroleum coke prices were significantly reduced WoW, with adjustments ranging from 400-640 yuan/mt, and current ex-factory prices are at 3,700-5,200 yuan/mt. PetroChina's northeastern region partially adopted a price protection sales policy for petroleum coke, with prices continuing to decrease this week by 150-300 yuan/mt, and current ex-factory prices are at 4,260-4,800 yuan/mt. Sinopec's petroleum coke prices remained largely stable. Local refineries saw a slight improvement in shipments, with downstream enterprises showing increased procurement enthusiasm and more inquiries, and the average price of local refinery petroleum coke was about 2,491 yuan/mt, down 0.28% from last Thursday. In the coal tar pitch market, prices weakened this week, with the average price as of Thursday at 4,538 yuan/mt, down 2.85% from last Thursday. Overall, the decline in petroleum coke and coal tar pitch prices led to weaker cost support for prebaked anodes. Supply Side, prebaked anode enterprises maintained stable production throughout the year based on orders. On the demand side, the operating capacity of China's aluminum industry steadily increased, although the growth was limited, it positively boosted the market demand for prebaked anodes. Brief Comment: During the week, downstream procurement sentiment in the petroleum coke market warmed up, ending the downward trend of petroleum coke prices and turning to stabilization or even a slight rebound. According to SMM data, as of March 20, the cost of prebaked anodes in China was about 5,455 yuan/mt, a 2.25% decrease from last Thursday. SMM understands that the current market situation remains unclear, with downstream enterprises' tentative restocking providing some support, but overall, just-in-time procurement still dominated. The momentum for a rise in petroleum coke prices was insufficient, and the market still needed to observe the specific stockpiling situation of downstream enterprises. Although petroleum coke prices had softened recently, enterprises still faced significant production pressure in consuming their previous inventories, leading to poor profitability. This week, both supply and demand for prebaked anodes showed minor fluctuations, while the cost side, mainly the petroleum coke market, was expected to consolidate at high levels, with prebaked anode prices remaining largely stable in the short term. 》Click to view SMM Aluminum Industry Chain Database

[3.2 Morning Meeting Summary] Currently nearing the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore supply still requires time to ramp up. Nickel ore prices remain stable, and smelters' production drive is weak, with production operating at low levels. In Indonesia, recent abundant rainfall, combined with tight nickel ore supply, has kept smelters' nickel ore inventory at low levels. Despite the release of new capacity, production has only seen a slight increase. Demand side, stainless steel futures orders are relatively strong. Additionally, with stainless steel scrap prices rising alongside finished product prices, the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap has weakened. Stainless steel mills' sentiment toward purchasing high-grade NPI has improved, and market inquiries are relatively active.

Indonesian Policy Turbulence Continues, Premium Slightly Rises

[3.6 Morning Meeting Summary] Jinchuan brand nickel rose by 50 yuan compared to the previous trading day, mainly driven by favourable macro news. From a technical perspective and market sentiment, the SHFE nickel 2504 contract fluctuated considerably after the opening. Despite being during the Two Sessions, as of the midday break, market trading remained sluggish, with participants generally adopting a wait-and-see approach, anticipating the latest updates from the Two Sessions. In the short term, a tug-of-war has formed between favourable macro factors and the persistently bearish fundamentals.

SMM Steel, March 4 - According to SMM statistics, the total estimated shipments of mainstream market resources this week reached 284,900 mt, down 72,700 mt WoW. By market segment:

[Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap: Aluminum Scrap Prices Slightly Increased Amid Stability, Market Transactions Remain Moderate] Today, primary aluminum spot prices rose by 30 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day, with SMM A00 spot aluminum closing at 20,630 yuan/mt. Aluminum scrap market quotations followed aluminum prices with slight increases amid stability. Currently, aluminum scrap traders show good selling sentiment, but downstream scrap utilisation enterprises' demand falls short of expectations, focusing mainly on bargain down purchasing prices, resulting in overall moderate transactions.

The Premium of Indonesian Domestic Trade Laterite Nickel Ore Continues to Rise, but the Growth Rate Slows Down

[SMM SHFE Aluminum Brief Review: "Tariff Stick" Sparks Concerns, SHFE Aluminum Prices Rebound from Bottom] Macro side, as US President Trump’s reckless wielding of the "tariff stick" stoked inflation fears, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin "turned hawkish" on Tuesday (25th, US Eastern Time), stating that the US Fed might have to raise interest rates to counter economic trends that could drive inflation higher. Fundamentals side, cost side support continued to weaken; supply side remained stable with slight increases, showing relatively small overall changes; demand side, influenced by the rise in aluminum prices, end-user enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach, while downstream aluminum semis enterprises saw no significant improvement in shipments. Factory raw material inventory turnover days struggled to rebound, with procurement mainly based on rigid demand and consumption of finished product inventories.