The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and sponsored by China Securities International as platinum sponsor, wrapped up successfully at Novotel Hong Kong Century on May 6. With over 300 registrations and 200 on-site attendees, the forum focused on the theme "New Metals Cycle: Prices, Power & Global Wrestling". The event featured keynote speeches by industry experts and SMM analysts, covering base metals, new energy materials, and strategic revaluation of minor and precious metals. Two high-level panel sessions were held, exploring hot topics such as geopolitics, supply-demand fluctuations, CBAM impacts, and market opportunities. It also served as an efficient platform for networking and cooperation across entire industry chains. SMM Opening Address SMM Chairman Adam Fan SMM Chairman Adam Fan stated in the opening address that it was a great honor to gather with elites from all sectors of the industry at this forum. The world is currently at a critical development period, and the exchange of industry ideas is not only an industry necessity but also an inevitable requirement for global development. Adam reviewed the century-long legacy of the London Metal Exchange, which has weathered nearly 150 years of global changes and industry evolution, fully demonstrating that although market structures may change, the fundamental need for risk management and reliable price discovery remains constant. At the same time, Adam candidly acknowledged that global markets are currently mired in a pattern of deep fluctuations. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain fragmentation, and the compounding crises of energy and food, overlaid with de-globalization and rising trade protectionism, have intensified market uncertainty and inflationary pressures, posing severe challenges to global economic growth and industrial cooperation. Against this backdrop, SMM has steadfastly upheld its mission, refusing to be a bystander to the trend of industry fragmentation, and is committed to serving as a bridge for global industrial connectivity amid a landscape of division. SMM is dedicated to promoting dialogue and exchange, breaking down industry and regional barriers, and bringing together regulators, traders, and producers from around the world to discuss industry development. SMM upholds the principle of information transparency, continuously providing accurate, real-time market data to help the industry see through market fog and clarify market distortions. SMM deepens pragmatic cooperation by building a neutral and professional platform for exchange and matchmaking, driving all parties to pursue collaborative development based on shared interests and transcending political differences. Adam emphasized that information sharing and open collaboration would be leveraged to mitigate market risks and strengthen overall industry resilience, and called on the industry to seize the opportunity of this forum to jointly explore solutions, transforming current challenges into momentum for driving integrated and robust development of the global metals industry. Speech by Platinum Sponsor Wang Guangxue, Member of the Executive Committee of China Securities Co., Ltd. and Chairman of China Securities Futures Co., Ltd. Wang stated that as a vital bridge connecting the capital market and the real economy, China Securities has always been committed to serving the high-quality development of the metals industry. Leveraging the comprehensive financial strengths of CITIC Group, the company has built a full-chain integrated service system covering securities, futures, investment, and research. The company has been deeply engaged in the commodities sector, continuously providing forward-looking research to anticipate market trends, utilizing futures instruments to build robust risk barriers, and empowering industrial upgrading through capital services. It will fully leverage CITIC Group's full-license resource advantages and the strategic value of Hong Kong as an international financial center to continuously strengthen its cross-border comprehensive financial services capabilities. The company aims to tailor integrated risk management and asset allocation solutions at home and abroad for enterprises across the metals industry chain, precisely helping enterprises hedge against price fluctuation risks, and enabling them to operate steadily and advance with high quality in complex market environments. Structural Shifts: Rethinking Commodity Benchmarks in an Era of Persistent Inflation and Rivalry Speaker: Tian Yaxiong, Co-Head of R&D Department, China Securities Futures Tian shared professional research findings and cutting-edge market insights on hot topics including the market outlook for global metals and the deep impact of geopolitics on commodity trends. SMM Industry Analysis: Market Outlook and Pre-seminar Sharing for Base Metals and New Energy Materials (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt, Lithium, and Tin) & How SMM Empowers Your Commodity Trading & Analysis Speakers: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd.; Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Analysis at SMM Dr. Wang first analyzed the macroeconomic landscape. At the beginning of this year, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies performed quite well, actually exceeding 50%. Without the conflict, demand this year would have been quite strong. However, at the end of February, the US-Iran conflict broke out, and the International Monetary Fund subsequently revised down its global economic growth expectations. He pointed out that China's exports remain one of the three pillars that are still functioning well to date. Regarding automobile consumption, he noted that for the EV market, the positive factor for the auto industry also lies in exports. In Q1 this year, export performance was indeed very strong. If you look at EV exports alone, they actually grew nearly 160% YoY. Driven mainly by growth in global markets, he remains optimistic about the auto industry this year. In Europe, gasoline and diesel prices have risen significantly due to the US-Iran conflict, and EV demand is expected to benefit from this factor. He believes the power sector continues to maintain strong growth. Based on power grid and power generation investment data from the first two months, combined with State Grid Corporation of China's earlier announcement that fixed asset investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, this indicates that electricity demand will drive strong growth. State Grid Corporation of China will build more ultra-high voltage transmission projects, which will undoubtedly support aluminum demand and also copper demand. Aluminum: Wang noted that base metal prices experienced wild swings since the beginning of this year. He also discussed that China's aluminum smelters continued to raise operating rates due to favorable profitability; aluminum demand pulled back in Q1, and high prices drove inventory higher; approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity in Indonesia may come online in 2026, with some investors watching Angola; and aluminum semis and wheel hub exports maintained growth in Q1. Copper: After copper prices experienced a pullback and adjustment in March, downstream procurement demand in China was rapidly released, providing strong support for copper prices to rebound. Copper prices rose sharply, with the market downplaying geopolitical risks. China's copper cathode demand was robust, and inventory continued to decline. China's copper scrap market was not truly facing a spot shortage issue. The outlook for copper cathode demand is positive. China remains dependent on copper concentrate imports. Spot copper concentrate TCs showed no signs of bottoming out. By-product revenue sustained smelter profits. He also analyzed the DRC sulphuric acid market conditions, the expected slowdown in global refined production growth, and how a refined market supply deficit should support higher copper prices. He also mentioned that the AI industry maintained strong development momentum, bringing new growth momentum to copper demand. Tin: He elaborated from the following perspectives: Myanmar tin production — slow recovery, upward trajectory, 2025-2027E; Indonesia tin ore RKAB quotas — expected to ease slightly in 2026; DRC — major mine production remained stable, but the M23 movement added uncertainty; global tin prices — supply determines the floor, macro factors drive fluctuations; the global tin market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with new mining capacity expected to be concentrated for release in 2028. Thomas Feng shared insights on nickel, cobalt, and lithium: emerging from the trough and entering a new cycle. ►New energy demand landscape: from EV popularization to energy storage deployment. First, he reviewed and provided an outlook on the global NEV market: NEV demand no longer maintains a one-sided high-growth trajectory, but instead exhibits characteristics of regional differentiation, structural divergence, and intensifying cyclical volatility; development paces in China, Europe, and the US have shown notable differences; performance trends of BEVs, PHEVs, and commercial vehicles have diverged; and the impact of inventory and price cycles on industry operations is increasing significantly. Second, in his review and outlook of the global energy storage market, he noted that the global energy storage market will remain concentrated in three key regions: China, the US, and Europe. Driven by 2030 climate goals, emerging markets such as the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia are showing strong growth in demand for large-scale energy storage. Benefiting from cost advantages and improved safety performance, LFP battery market share is expected to continue climbing. ►Lithium: Reshaping the Supply-Demand Pattern in a New Cycle Global lithium carbonate market: shifting from overall surplus to structural tightness, with prices in a post-trough reassessment and recovery phase. Lithium hydroxide supply and demand maintained a tight balance: production on the supply side was driven by demand, the market share of ternary power batteries was squeezed, and room for growth was limited. The concentration of lithium resource supply declined, with marginal growth rates slowing down simultaneously. Significant demand growth drove the continued expansion of resource projects. ►Nickel: Navigating Policy Changes and Narrowing Oversupply Indonesia's nickel ore HPM adjustment: aimed at enhancing the economic value of non-nickel resources. The discussion covered scenario analysis of nickel ore prices following the implementation of the new policy, and the impact analysis of nickel ore benchmark price adjustments on MHP full costs. Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota: a tight balance is expected to set the tone for 2026. Global primary nickel is expected to remain in persistent oversupply. Regarding the logic behind refined nickel price trends, it was noted that policy and macro factors jointly amplified price fluctuations, while cost support elevated the long-term price floor. ►Cobalt: Shifting from Surplus to Shortage after the DRC Export Ban——Long-Term Uncertainty Remains Following the DRC policy announcement, cobalt product prices in China rose rapidly. However, high prices suppressed downstream demand, putting prices under pressure. Starting from H2 2025, the Chinese market continued destocking. Amid raw material shortages, enterprises began using MHP and recycled materials as production substitutes. MHP and recycling are expected to continue growing rapidly, effectively bridging the cobalt hydroxide gap. Cost pressure transmitted in both directions: LCO doping/ternary substitution restarted, and consumer cobalt demand is expected to decline by 10%. As persistently high cobalt prices suppress demand, if China secures 90% of the DRC quota, supplemented by MHP and recycling supply, inventory buildup could occur as early as 2026. Panel Discussion: Global Metals Market Outlook——Geopolitics Disruption, Macro Cycles and the Return of Commodity Volatility •Copper and Aluminum Price Rise, 2024-2026 •Precious Metals Storm: Silver Swung Wildly, Gold Hit Record Highs — Interest Rate Cycles, Safe-Haven Demand, and Industrial Logic •Precious Metals and Industrial Metals: Are Commodities Entering a New Cycle •Focus on Critical Minerals: Emerging Region Supply Rise and Policy Shifts, Green Transition Co-Shaping a New Narrative •Chinese Market: The 15th Five-Year Plan Moderator: Yanchen Wang, Managing Director, SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Yahong Tian, Co-Head of R&D, CITIC Futures Henry Van, Head of Industrial Metals Analysis, Trafigura Sharon Ding, Head of China Basic Materials, UBS Justin William Hughes, Commodity Derivatives Distribution, Optiver Xie Shaobo, Head of China, Appian Mining Fund & independent non-executive Director, Zijin Gold International Panelists noted aluminum has great upside—its 10% price rise lags its 4%-5% supply contraction (vs. oil’s 60% price surge on 10% supply drop), with valuation recovery incomplete. They were more optimistic about copper demand, driven by real downstream demand rather than speculation; aluminum semis’ upside is underappreciated due to high oil prices. Long-term, copper and gold are key for mining investment, with scarce high-quality copper mines and solid gold fundamentals. They also discussed US tariffs, China’s metal demand resilience and overseas mining investment. Overseas mining success hinges on resource-to-reserve certainty; West Africa, Latin America, DRC and Zambia are new hotspots, while Australian/Canadian listed miners are undervalued. Enterprises must plan prudently based on risk tolerance. Geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Iran) may trigger energy crises, but current inflation control and China’s high metal consumption share weaken demand impact. Long-term, energy crises will boost electrification, expanding copper/aluminum demand. Investment depends on risk appetite and fundamental grasp. SMM Industry Analysis: Strategic Re-valuation of Minor Precious and Minor Metals in 2026 — The Case of Silver and Tungsten Silver: Market Supply-Demand Balance and Macroeconomic Volatility: Evolution and Shift in Industrial Demand, Particularly Driven by the PV Sector Tungsten: Strategic Status Upgrade - Supply Constraints and High-End Demand Driving the 2026 Price Rally Speaker: Juno Zhu, Senior Analyst of Minor and Precious Metals, SMM Juno shared insights on the strategic revaluation of tungsten and silver. Tungsten: Tungsten prices have surged over 500% since 2025; China holds over 50% of global tungsten reserves, contributes nearly 80% of global production, and possesses a complete industrial value chain; China's tungsten supply constraints in 2025: H1 mining quotas declined 6.45% YoY; global new project stagnation: limited capacity expansion in 2026, with ex-China mine development cycles of 3–5 years; domestic tungsten downstream applications: significant growth in cutting tools and PV tungsten wire in 2025; European market: persistent raw material shortages, with Rotterdam tungsten prices surging since February 2025; China's tungsten product exports: transitioning from primary products to deep-processed products; SMM analysis: the tungsten market supply-demand gap is expected to persist but narrow in 2026; prices are expected to consolidate at highs after overheating cools. Silver: Silver price fluctuations in 2026: an unexpected surge from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, where frenzied investment demand and capital liquidity completely overshadowed the impact of the industrial off-season. Shift in trade dynamics in Q1 2026: SGE-LBMA premiums reversal and a surge in imports. Demand spike in Q1 2026: the PV industry started with a recovery, and an investment boom generated a phased demand peak. PV market outlook: policy shifts in 2026 are expected to curb demand growth, with overall silver consumption remaining stable. Silver demand outlook for 2026: industrial fundamentals provide support, while investment surges serve as a tactical highlight. Silver supply outlook for 2026: mild annual growth and an expanding secondary supply share are expected to drive a tight balance in the market. Market outlook: short-term trends are expected to revert to industrial fundamentals, while the medium and long-term trajectory is expected to fluctuate at highs driven by safe-haven demand. Panel Discussion: Metals in a Fragmented World: Trading Opportunities in the Age of Instability (Physical Trading and Hedging) •Shifting Liquidity Landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE •Shipping Risks and Sanctioned Metals: Implications for LME Inventory Structure •How European CBAM is Reshaping Global Metals Trade Flows •Is the Metals Market Entering an "Era of Geopolitical Risk Premiums" •Internationalization of SHFE & GFEX: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Investors Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, SMM Panelist: Anant Jatia, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, Greenland Investment Management Bella Yu, General Manager of Marketing Department, Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. David Wilson, Director of Commodity Strategy, BNP Paribas Duncan Hobbs, Research Director, Concord Resources Nicholas Snowdon, Head of Metals and Mining Research, Mercuria Energy Trading SA Sabrina Qian, Director of Geared broking desk, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS Anant Jatia stated: CBAM represents a major policy shift in Europe's metals sector. It is not merely about raising trade costs, but will profoundly reshape global metal trade flows and pricing logic. CBAM officially took effect in January this year, initially covering categories such as steel and aluminum semis, with its core mechanism incorporating carbon emission intensity costs into Europe's metal pricing system. High-carbon-emission producers will need to bear additional carbon allowance costs, significantly weakening their export competitiveness to Europe, while green capacity powered by clean energy will gain a clear advantage in the European market and capture greater market share. Following the policy's implementation, the landed cost of metals in the European market will rise, sustaining a long-term regional premium similar to the aluminum premium structure in the US market. Compared with the market differentiation among LME-registered brands following CBAM's implementation, what deserves more attention are the entirely new market opportunities it creates. By sourcing low-carbon, high-quality materials, market participants can potentially capture green premiums, while the mechanism will also transform metal trading models and the global trade flow landscape. The panelists also discussed the changing liquidity landscape across LME, CME, and SHFE. They noted that liquidity in the commodity market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with copper and other products now tradable across multiple global futures exchanges. Price discovery is no longer concentrated in a single market, and the traditional pattern of one market leading gains and others following has reversed, with multi-exchange rotation driving price movements becoming the norm. Factors such as geopolitical policies and tariff adjustments have given rise to regional pricing divergence, with price movements in some markets increasingly driven by capital flows and sentiment. Policy and geopolitical events have also significantly affected the spread between futures and spot prices of metals, creating opportunities for cross-market arbitrage. Meanwhile, policies related to critical minerals supply security, regional supply shocks, and geopolitical disruptions have widened the dislocation between regional fundamentals and price signals. The metals market has entered a window of structural arbitrage opportunities, and this trend is expected to persist. Cross-market arbitrage continues to provide liquidity support to exchanges, a phenomenon broadly observed across both industrial and precious metals. In addition, the panelists engaged in in-depth discussions on the differences between exchange liquidity and industrial liquidity, as well as factors influencing metal price trends, including fundamentals, geopolitical developments, energy costs, and commodity transportation costs. Opening Remarks for Coffee Break Xu Tao, CEO of CSCI In his address, Xu Tao stated that Hong Kong serves as a vital hub in the global metals pricing and trading system, playing a key role in the aggregation of LME delivery resources and the internationalization of RMB-denominated commodities. Going forward, China Securities International will continue to leverage its role as a bridge for cross-border business, deepen collaboration with CSC Futures, and provide clients at home and abroad with efficient and professional comprehensive financial services in commodities, contributing to a higher level of opening-up of China's financial markets. Networking (Coffee Break) Acknowledgments The 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum was successfully held with special thanks to the Platinum Sponsor, China Securities International, for its strong support, as well as sincere gratitude to Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. for its significant contribution to the forum. Going forward, China Securities and China Securities International will continue to leverage the unique geographical and resource advantages of Hong Kong as an international financial center, deepen strategic cooperation with authoritative industry platforms such as SMM, and continuously improve the "onshore + offshore" integrated bulk commodity comprehensive service system, precisely empowering enterprises to seize market opportunities and hedge operational risks, contributing professional expertise to advancing the internationalization of China's bulk commodity market and enhancing the industry's global competitiveness. Liyang Unilink E-commerce Co., Ltd. (formerly Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center) has been engaged in new energy materials and critical metals supply chain services for over 20 years. Through its digital platform and offline service network, the company provides upstream and downstream clients with full-process online services including price negotiation, contract signing, contract execution, payment settlement, cargo delivery, processing, quality inspection, and after-sales services. With transparent pricing, 100% fulfillment guarantee, and strict quality control, it has established stable cooperation with over 30,000 industrial clients. In the field of critical strategic metal resources, Unilink has built a supply chain service system covering 14 critical metal varieties including indium, bismuth, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Spot delivery volumes of indium and bismuth each account for over 90% of China's consumption. For new energy materials, spot delivery volumes of nickel, cobalt, and lithium on Zhonglian Jin's platform account for 30%, 90%, and 20% of China's consumption respectively, while daily sulfur trading volume exceeds 80,000 mt. Unilink implements a service model of "payment upon delivery, cargo pick-up upon payment," effectively shortening delivery cycles, reducing enterprise operating costs, and helping upstream and downstream clients achieve stable and efficient material scheduling. Zhonglian Jin strictly adheres to national industrial policies and resource management requirements, consistently focusing on serving the real economy, fully ensuring the security and smooth operation of bulk commodity supply chains, and promoting efficient resource allocation. It has ranked among China's Top 500 Service Enterprises and China's Top 20 Growing Internet Enterprises for two consecutive years. With that, the 2026 SMM Hong Kong Metals Forum came to a successful conclusion! Thank you for your help and support for this forum~

Minsur, the world's second-largest refined tin producer, reported that its Pisco smelter in Peru produced 8,314 mt of refined tin in Q1 2026, down 2.9% YoY. The company attributed the slight decline in tin production to lower feed grades and reduced recovery rates at the smelter. Meanwhile, rising tin prices drove a 16.9% YoY increase in net revenue, effectively offsetting the impact of the production decline. Tin-in-concentrates production from the San Rafael underground mine fell 2.0% YoY to 6,096 mt due to lower recovery rates, but this was partially offset by a 3.3% increase in production from the B2 tailings dam. Total tin-in-concentrates production was basically flat YoY at 7,993 mt. The mill feed grade at the San Rafael mine remained stable at 2.40% Sn.

Indonesian state-owned tin producer PT Timah achieved refined tin production of 5,630 mt in Q1 2026, a significant increase of 81.9% YoY. During the same period, PT Timah's refined tin sales volume was 6,009 mt at an average price of $49,221/mt, generating revenue of 5.47 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately 2.291 billion yuan), up 160.5% YoY. According to the company's report, tin-in-ore production from its onshore and offshore operations reached 6,312 mt in Q1, up 96.3% YoY. The company attributed this growth to improved production efficiency, an increased number of operating vessels within permitted areas, and higher production from cooperative onshore mines (including small-scale mines and onshore suction dredge pontoon operations). Improved security conditions in mining areas also strongly supported production growth, effectively reducing the impact of illegal mining.

Indonesian state-owned tin producer PT Timah announced that, driven by rising tin prices, the company's 2025 operating profit reached 1.91 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately 798 million yuan), up 0.8% YoY. PT Timah's 2025 total revenue was 11.55 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately 4.843 billion yuan), up 6.41% YoY. The company stated that domestic clients accounted for 5% of its sales, with the remaining 95% being export sales. PT Timah announced that its refined tin production fell 5.8% YoY to 17,815 mt, mainly due to persistent rampant illegal mining activities both offshore and onshore. By region, onshore production was 7,098 mt (down 8.1% YoY), offshore production was 11,537 mt (down 1.5% YoY), and the overall structure remained largely stable.

This week, the secondary copper rod market operated against the backdrop of copper prices fluctuating at highs above the 100,000 yuan mark, with all segments of the industry chain struggling to find balance amid policy constraints and price negotiations. The market overall exhibited complex characteristics of "marginal recovery on the production side, price pressure on the raw material side...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Fluctuated at Highs, Downstream Enterprises Mostly Took a Wait-and-See Approach with Limited Follow-Through]

Ansteel Mining's Dong'anshan Iron Mine has set its sights on achieving its annual targets, seizing the golden period for production, and coordinating its layout to tap into its potential. It has made precise efforts in areas such as lean management, equipment support, and safety control to enhance its production and operation levels. In the first five months, the mine's ore output exceeded the challenge value by 1.9%, while the total mining and stripping volume and ore output grade surpassed the planned targets by 1.6% and 0.76%, respectively. The mine has coordinated the management and control of the entire production and operation process, creating favorable conditions for increasing capacity and efficiency. It has adopted measures such as strengthening production organization, strictly managing blasting quality, intensifying mining in key areas, dynamically adjusting the ore supply structure, and optimizing the transportation routes for production trucks to drive continuous improvement in production indicators. Meanwhile, it has strengthened the management and control of equipment operation, enhanced standardized maintenance and repair operations, improved the technical skills of spot inspections and the quality of equipment maintenance, and further enhanced equipment operation efficiency. Focusing on the investigation and rectification of fire safety hazards, it has increased the intensity of inspections on various electrical equipment and facilities, electrical circuits, as well as fire hydrants and fire extinguishers, to further enhance safety control capabilities and build a solid "firewall" for fire safety.

According to the official WeChat account of Tin Corporation, recently, an invention patent for a tin-containing material smelting system, filed by the Tin Branch of Tin Corporation, was granted by the US Patent and Trademark Office, achieving a zero breakthrough for the Tin Branch in international patent grants. This marks a significant breakthrough in the company's core technologies in the field of tin smelting, positioning it competitively in the forefront of international intellectual property rights. The patent technology was submitted for international PCT patent filing in March 2024 and was granted and announced by the US Patent and Trademark Office in May 2025. This is a landmark project in the "technological revolution" of tin smelting, representing a breakthrough from "zero to one". From the dry powder lance to the pressure-stabilizing system, every core device was independently developed through R&D. Over 30 core parameters of the injection process were explored and optimized, and six invention patents were filed, breaking through foreign technological barriers and achieving industrialisation of the technology. Self-produced fumes are recycled in a closed-loop system for refurnace smelting, with new progress made in optimizing the top-blown furnace process, achieving continuous and stable injection at 25 mt/h, a 2.5% reduction in fume rate, and a record high in crude tin production from the top-blown furnace. The coal consumption for comprehensive treatment of tin-containing materials decreased by 3.5%, saving nearly 2,000 mt of coal annually. Electricity consumption decreased by 4.09%, generating over 30 million yuan in annual benefits, truly realizing the goal of "writing papers in the workshop and leaving achievements on the production line." The Tin Branch has always attached great importance to technological innovation, consistently placing patent protection for original technologies at a critical position. In recent years, it has actively filed over 100 domestic and international patents and obtained over 80 patents authorized by the state. Looking ahead, the Tin Branch will take this as an opportunity to continue upholding its original intention of innovation, forging ahead, breaking through technological bottlenecks, and setting new industry standards in the "uncharted territory" of tin smelting, achieving self-transcendence and injecting powerful momentum into the company's high-quality development with more internationally advanced scientific and technological achievements.

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Tin Session , Chen Peng, Senior Tin Analyst at SMM, discussed the theme of changes in the global tin industry chain landscape and future development trends. 1. Global Tin Resource Distribution and Supply Landscape Intensified Resource Scarcity: Static Mining Lifespan Less Than 15 Years China accounts for 22% of global tin ore reserves but contributes 45% of global production, with resource development intensity exceeding critical thresholds. • Global tin resources are highly concentrated, with China, Indonesia, and Myanmar collectively accounting for over 50%. China, as the largest producer (45% of production), and Indonesia form a dual-core driving force, yet with significant differences in resource endowments. Tin Ore Segment: Global tin ore production is also primarily concentrated in countries with high reserves • Global tin ore production is mainly concentrated in countries such as China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and the DRC. • Except during the COVID-19 pandemic period, global tin ore production has consistently remained at the level of 300,000 mt in metal content annually. Tin Ore Segment: Tin ore imports continued to decline in 2025, with cumulative YoY imports for January-April 2025 at -47.98%. The contraction of tin ore supply from Myanmar has become a long-term trend. • The market generally expects that Wa State may resume production by mid-2025, but the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 mt in metal content, and it will require a 2-3 month transmission period. The progress of production resumption will be constrained by Sino-Myanmar mining trade negotiations and the centralization process in Wa State. Tin Ore Segment: Myanmar's Dominance Weakens, Diversified Landscape Accelerates • Before 2023: Myanmar once accounted for 72%-85% of China's tin ore imports. However, after the implementation of the mining ban policy in Wa State in August 2023, its supply volume plummeted. By 2024, Myanmar's import share dropped to 48.1%, and further declined to 24%-30% in 2025. The core mining area, Mansang (accounting for 80% of Myanmar's supply), remains in a state of suspension. • Emergence of Alternative Sources: Imports from Africa (DRC, Nigeria), South America (Peru, Bolivia), and Australia have increased significantly. For example, in 2025, the import share from the DRC rose to 28%, Nigeria's import share reached 11%, and Australia's imports surged by 101% YoY. The 20-day moving average of recent tin ore import profit margins has remained stable. ►Risk Point Reminder: African Supply Chain Stability to Be Verified: Operational risks at Alphamin mine in the DRC (short-term suspension in April 2025). Global Refined Tin Landscape Features "Asia-Dominated, South America-Supported, Africa-Supplemented" • In the global tin industry chain, most smelting and refining activities are concentrated near tin ore production sites. Countries such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Thailand, the DRC, Bolivia, and Brazil all have smelters of a certain scale, with China and Indonesia accounting for a relatively high proportion. The production resumption process in the Wa region of Myanmar has commenced, but due to the impact of earthquakes and rising policy implementation costs, the actual increase may fall short of expectations. The core contradiction in the tin ore event chain in the DRC lies in the game between geopolitical conflicts and resource dependence. Risk Points: Stability of the African supply chain to be verified: As the largest importer, China's refined tin industry chain is significantly affected by disruptions in the DRC, while the growth in demand for AI, new energy, etc., further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance. 2. Global Tin Consumption Structure and Demand Evolution Terminal Segment: Tin Consumption Structure • In the global tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 48%, tin chemicals 16%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tin alloys 7%. • In China's tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 67%, tin chemicals 12%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tinplate 6%. Terminal Segment: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) shows a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries. AI demand has driven the capacity utilisation rate of semiconductor companies to record highs. • In the past two years, the SOX has shown a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries, primarily driven by liquidity expectations and valuation pressures. • In 2024, the capacity utilisation rate of the US computer and semiconductor industry remained stable at 76.53%-78.44%, close to the average over the past 10 years (76.72%). In specific segments, the semiconductor capacity utilisation rate reached 95% in Q1 2025, a record high, reflecting the supply-demand tension driven by AI demand. Terminal Segment: The cumulative YoY growth rate of PVC resin production has dropped back slightly, while key enterprises producing tinplate have operated smoothly throughout the year. • The construction of commercial housing is not an isolated process; it is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for building materials. Despite two consecutive years of decline in the sales area of commercial housing, completion demand and policy support (such as ensuring timely delivery of housing projects and infrastructure investment) have driven PVC consumption growth, with a "weak positive correlation" maintained between the two in the past two years. • In the past two years, the tinplate industry has exhibited a differentiated pattern of "shortage in the high-end segment and surplus in the low-end segment". Leading enterprises have consolidated their advantages through technological upgrades and export markets, while small and medium-sized enterprises face integration pressures. However, overall production has remained at a relatively stable level and is expected to maintain its current magnitude in the future. 3. Inventory Cycle and Supply Chain Resilience Building Inventory Link: China's tin ingot social inventory exhibits significant cyclical characteristics •From February to March 2025, inventory showed an alternating pattern of "increase-decrease", mainly due to the release of downstream restocking demand coupled with fluctuations in SHFE tin prices. •Inventory changes in tin ingots are highly correlated with prices, seasonal demand (e.g., the "September-October peak season"), and policy adjustments (e.g., production restrictions in smelting), exhibiting a cyclical pattern of "inventory buildup in H1 and destocking in H2". It also elaborated on the inventory levels within China's tin industry chain. 4. Changes in the Global Tin Industry Chain Landscape and Future Development Trends In 2024, the global tin market was characterized by "regional shortages and a slight global deficit" The tin market achieved a tight balance amid supply disruptions and demand differentiation in 2024, and is expected to shift towards a slight surplus in 2025. However, structural contradictions (uneven regional supply recovery, emerging demand growth) will dominate price fluctuations. The market should closely monitor the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar, Indonesia's exports, and the semiconductor industry's recovery, while guarding against unexpected shocks from macro policies and geopolitical risks. ►SMM Outlook •In 2024, the global tin ingot market was characterized by concurrent supply contraction and weak demand recovery. Affected by factors such as the suspension of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa region and delayed approval of Indonesia's export quotas, global tin ore production declined YoY. However, the release of unreported inventory and the supplementation of recycled tin alleviated supply pressures, leading to a slight increase in annual refined tin production to approximately 374,000 mt. On the demand side, weak recovery in the semiconductor industry and a slowdown in PV growth dragged down global consumption to around 373,000 mt, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately 11,000 mt. •In 2025, expectations for production resumptions in Myanmar (with potential output increases in H2) and full production at new projects in the DRC and China will drive supply growth. On the demand side, the upward trend in the semiconductor cycle, coupled with the application of AI technology and growth in NEVs, may increase global consumption to 375,000 mt. However, growth in traditional sectors (e.g., tinplate, home appliance exports) will slow down to 2.1%-3.5% due to trade frictions. The annual supply-demand gap may narrow to 5,100 mt, but geopolitical risks (Myanmar's political situation, Indonesia's exports) may exacerbate volatility. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference

Recently, International Resources Holding (IRH), an Abu Dhabi-based international resources holding company, decided to acquire a majority stake in a large tin mine located in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), further expanding its investment portfolio in critical mineral resources. It is reported that IRH acquired approximately 56% of Alphamin Resources from a subsidiary of Denham Capital, a US private equity fund, for CAD 503 million (approximately US$367 million). Alphamin, listed in Canada, owns the large Bisie tin mine in eastern DRC. In addition to tin, the mine is rich in critical minerals such as tantalum, tungsten, and coltan. The Bisie tin mine officially commenced production in 2019, with two major pits: Mpama North and Mpama South. In 2024, its production exceeded 17,000 mt, accounting for approximately 6% of global tin production. The mine temporarily suspended operations in March this year, causing a brief spike in global tin prices, but has since resumed production. IRH is a subsidiary of International Holding Company (IHC), an international holding company led by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE's National Security Advisor and a member of the Abu Dhabi royal family, focusing on mining exploration and investment. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan is the brother of UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and manages a US$1.5 trillion business empire. In addition to IHC, he also serves as the Chairman of sovereign funds Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ) and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), the Chairman of G42, the largest AI company in the Middle East, the Chairman of private investment company Royal Group, and the Chairman of First Abu Dhabi Bank. In 2023, IRH invested US$1.1 billion to acquire the Mopani copper mine in Zambia, officially entering the African mining market. Since then, IRH has continued to seek acquisition opportunities for critical minerals in Africa. Tin, as an important metal resource, is widely used in the chemical, electronics, metallurgical, and new energy industries, among others. Against the backdrop of the global energy transition, major oil-producing countries in the Gulf, including the UAE, are actively promoting economic diversification strategies, with a particular focus on the layout of critical metal resources to secure a favorable position in the global energy transition.