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Last week, tin prices fell sharply, mainly due to the implementation of the US tariff hike policy on China, which intensified market concerns over escalating trade frictions and economic recession, coupled with rising expectations of the resumption of production at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a surge in market risk aversion sentiment. Supply side, refined tin production in March was 15,080 mt, up 10.4% MoM but down 3.1% YoY. Affected by tight raw material supply and low TC, production in April is expected to be 15,385 mt, down 8.3% MoM and 7.0% YoY. The latest customs data showed that cumulative tin ore imports from January to February were 18,587 mt, down 50.15% YoY. Cumulative tin ingot imports in the same period were 4,203 mt, down 16.61% YoY. Demand side, domestic consumer electronics demand data weakened, and the US tariff policy may affect China's home appliance and consumer electronics exports. Subsequent observation is needed on the strength of domestic stimulus policies. Inventory side, domestic inventories remained at high levels overall, but last week's sharp decline in tin prices triggered restocking demand in the spot market, leading to a reduction in refined tin inventories. In summary, tin demand is expected to weaken marginally, but supply remains at low levels, and SHFE tin prices are expected to fluctuate at highs. Today, the price range for the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to be 250,000-270,000 yuan/mt, while the LME tin 3M contract is expected to range from $29,000-33,000/mt. (Source: Minmetals Futures)

SMM Tin Midday Review: US Tariff Policy "Selectively Suspended," SHFE Tin Prices Slightly Rebounded. As of midday today (11:30), the most-traded SHFE tin futures contract (SN2505) closed at 255,610 yuan/mt, down 1.47% from the previous settlement price, with an intraday fluctuation of 8.91%. The price hit a low of 235,720 yuan/mt, marking a two-month low. The opening price in the morning session was 245,000 yuan/mt, briefly surging to 258,300 yuan/mt driven by the overnight rebound in LME tin prices, then fluctuated rangebound, with market sentiment remaining fragile. On the spot market, spot premiums widened, reflecting some downstream restocking after the futures market's oversold condition.

The inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on April 9 showed that tin inventories decreased by 215 mt or 6.26%, to 3,220 mt. The Port Klang warehouse experienced the largest change, with a reduction of 215 mt. The following shows the distribution changes of LME tin inventories in major global warehouses: (unit: mt)

The inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on April 4 showed that tin inventories decreased by 45 mt or 1.48%, to 2,990 mt. The entire reduction came from the Port Klang warehouse. The following shows the distribution changes of LME tin inventories in major global warehouses: (unit: mt)

SMM Tin Futures Review: Short-Term Speculative Funds Drive SHFE Tin Surge Over 4%, Market Remains Cautious of "False Breakout" Risk. On April 2, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) continued its strong upward trend, surging over 4% during the session, reaching a high of 299,990 yuan/mt, approaching the 300,000 threshold and setting a new yearly high. In the afternoon, the price pulled back slightly, eventually closing at 297,590 yuan/mt, with a daily increase of 3.89%. During the night session, SHFE tin prices fluctuated at high levels, closing at 289,000 yuan/mt, with market activity remaining high and open interest surpassing 1 million contracts...

The London Metal Exchange (LME) released data showing that LME tin inventory experienced a rapid decline last week, while this week's inventory remained stable. The latest inventory level stood at 3,050 mt, the lowest in nearly two years. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported that during the week of March 28, SHFE tin inventory continued to accumulate, with a weekly increase of 7.55% to 9,255 mt, reaching a six-month high. Note: Generally, a continuous decline in domestic and overseas exchange inventories will support futures prices, while the opposite will have a bearish impact on futures prices. Comparison of LME and SHFE Tin Inventories Since 2023 Below are the LME and SHFE tin inventory data since March 2025 (unit: mt):

【Copper】 SHFE copper experienced a reduction in positions and fluctuated on Thursday, with the decline temporarily limited by the 10-day moving average. Spot copper prices stood at 81,585 yuan/mt today, with Shanghai at a discount of 30 yuan and Guangdong's premium narrowing to 90 yuan. High copper prices have affected the destocking speed, with SMM's social inventory increasing by 900 mt to 334,500 mt within the week. The overnight LME spread has approached Goldman Sachs' estimate of $1,700, drawing attention to speculative and arbitrage activities, with a tendency for this driver to shift marginally. SHFE copper shows signs of short-term adjustment, but the pullback is expected to be limited during the peak season, likely within the range of 80,500-81,500 yuan. Midstream and downstream players are pricing on demand. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 SHFE aluminum rose today, with spot prices maintaining a slight discount. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 25,000 mt and 13,000 mt respectively compared to Monday, with destocking speed slightly faster than in previous years. The market anticipates peak season consumption, focusing on whether spot feedback will improve as inventories decline. Higher profits after significant cost reductions require larger deficit expectations. In the short term, SHFE aluminum is expected to fluctuate near the low point of its one-month range at 20,500 yuan, continuing to test resistance at 21,000 yuan. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, with expanded production cuts and maintenance failing to alter the long-term loose trend. Domestic and overseas spot prices remain under pressure, with the latest Australian transaction falling to $368. As some northern alumina producers face cash cost losses, the decline in alumina may slow before ore prices loosen further, but the rebound space is relatively limited, with resistance at the 20-day moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. 【Zinc】 Zinc prices fluctuated at high levels, with downstream buyers hesitant to purchase at elevated prices. SMM's zinc social inventory increased slightly by 1,100 mt to 130,000 mt compared to Monday. Mine profits remain as high as 6,000 yuan/mt, with the resumption pace progressing as expected. SMM reported that the average TC for domestic and imported ores in April rose by 350 yuan and $5 to 3,450 yuan/mt (metal content) and $40/dmt respectively, further improving smelter profits. With no shortage of ore, zinc ingot supply is unlikely to be tight. The specifics of the US tariff policy on April 2 remain unclear, with funds inclined to take profits, and longs reducing positions at high levels. SHFE zinc retraced to the 60-day moving average. The renovation of old and dangerous houses and urban villages in April partially offset the drag on consumption from the real estate sector. Home appliance production schedules are moderate, with producers actively stockpiling for the peak season but expressing concerns about order declines after the export rush. Consumption remains resilient but lacks incremental growth. SHFE zinc is expected to remain volatile, with resistance at 24,250 yuan/mt. 【Lead】 LME lead inventories fluctuated around the high level of 230,000 mt, with the ratio of cancelled warrants surging to 31.2%. Investment funds reduced short positions, and the overseas market consolidated near the previous high resistance level, with the spot import window remaining closed. Domestic raw material supply remains tight, with scrap battery prices continuing to rise, maintaining strong cost-side support. As delivery supplies gradually enter the market, SMM's lead social inventory decreased by 4,800 mt to 69,200 mt WoW. The futures market fluctuated at high levels, with the price spread between primary metal and scrap widening to 100 yuan/mt, and the spread between futures and spot prices remaining as high as 230 yuan/mt. With profitable delivery opportunities, the tight supply of lead ingots is difficult to resolve. Downstream purchase willingness is low at month-end, with weak off-season demand and high raw material costs, prompting small and medium-sized battery producers to consider production cuts to control finished product inventories. The fundamentals are mixed, with volatility expected in the near term, and resistance at 17,880 yuan/mt. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with active market trading. Jinchuan's premium rebounded to 2,000 yuan, while Russian nickel was at a discount of 25 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel at a discount of 100 yuan. High-grade NPI prices remain strong, with Indonesian ore still influencing raw material pricing, quoted at 1,027 yuan per mtu. In terms of inventories, NPI inventories dropped sharply by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventories decreased by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventories slightly declined to 990,000 mt. After the price drop, NPI remains the main cost-side support, with strong short-term support estimated around 130,000 yuan. Technically, SHFE nickel has not weakened yet, waiting for short opportunities to mature. 【Tin】 SHFE tin closed higher, with the Tin Association meeting focusing on supply reduction. Spot tin prices stood at 278,900 yuan/mt today, with a real-time discount of 200 yuan/mt against the delivery month. LME tin inventories dropped to a recent low of 3,080 mt, with the LME 0-3 month spot premium expanding to $163, boosting short-term tin prices. Wa State continues to arrange resumption work. Against the backdrop of supply being more easily priced quickly, it is recommended to pay more attention to the demand side, with a tendency to view 280,000-285,000 yuan as the high-price zone. (Source: SDIC Futures)

The inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on March 26 showed that tin inventories decreased by 475 mt or 13.36%, to 3,080 mt. The entire reduction came from the Port Klang warehouse. The following shows the distribution changes of LME tin inventories in major warehouses worldwide: (unit: mt)

【Copper】 SHFE copper rose again on Tuesday with increased open interest, as domestic buyers placed orders at low levels to support copper prices. Spot copper was at 81,565 yuan/mt today, with Shanghai spot discounts at 15 yuan/mt and Guangdong spot premiums at 190 yuan/mt. Overnight, the new US President softened his stance on comprehensive tariffs, without mentioning copper, but uncertainties remain high. With the wide spread between LME and US prices, the market is focusing on logistics changes. LME copper inventories continued to outflow, and based on the US annual refined copper imports of 800,000 mt, the expected increase in copper imports this year could be around 400,000 mt. On the indicator front, the US February manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8, while the composite PMI exceeded expectations. Eurozone manufacturing activity warmed up to 48.7, the highest in over two years, with Germany's changes boosting market confidence. Currently, domestic supply and demand support copper prices to continue fluctuating at high levels and test further upward. SHFE copper's adjustment time is short, and the pullback is likely to be limited under peak season buying demand. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 SHFE aluminum fluctuated downward today, first falling and then rising, with spot prices maintaining slight discounts. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 35,000 mt and 13,000 mt, respectively. Aluminum ingot destocking was slightly stronger than in the same lunar period in recent years. The market has expectations for peak season consumption, but spot feedback is moderate, and aluminum billet processing fees remain low. After a significant cost reduction, higher profits require larger deficit expectations. In the short term, SHFE aluminum faces resistance at 21,000 yuan/mt, with support at the low of the recent one-month range of 20,500 yuan/mt, waiting for a directional breakout. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, with limited production cuts, and the supply-demand balance remains loose. Miners' sentiment to stand firm on quotes remains strong, with Guinea ore still above $90/mt. As some northern alumina companies face cash cost losses, alumina's decline may slow before ore prices loosen further. In the short term, it may hover around 3,000 yuan/mt, with attention on spot transaction changes. 【Zinc】 LME zinc inventories continued to pull back to 153,700 mt, with the 0-3 month discount narrowing to $14.5/mt. The overseas market's fundamental data improved, which is unfavorable for the import window to open. It is expected that the domestic and overseas markets will diverge slightly in the future. SHFE zinc fluctuated at high levels, with downstream buyers cautious about high prices and spot premiums weakening. Longs reduced positions at high levels, and SHFE zinc's weighted open interest fell by 3,155 lots to 232,900 lots, with capital outflows of 82.23 million yuan. In March, domestic smelters turned profitable, and refined zinc output is expected to increase by over 50,000 mt MoM. In Q2, mine-side increments are expected to be further realized, mainly tracking the resumption of production at Portugal's AI justrel. During the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," consumption performance is moderate, but the increment is insufficient. Under the dual increase in supply and demand, SHFE zinc is likely to maintain a rangebound movement between 23,200-24,200 yuan/mt. 【Lead】 The domestic and overseas markets diverged slightly, with lead spot import losses widening to around 720 yuan/mt. LME lead inventories are at a high of 232,200 mt, and the possibility of the lead ingot import window opening in the future cannot be ruled out. The futures market weakened, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed to 180 yuan/mt. The news of a large smelter in Henan planning a 25-30 day maintenance at the end of March supported prices. Secondary lead smelters previously purchased raw materials at high prices, resulting in high costs, and the price difference between primary metal and scrap remained unchanged at 75 yuan/mt. Domestic smelters are profitable, maintaining high operating rates, and the raw material shortage remains unchanged. Some secondary lead smelters reduced production due to insufficient raw materials, but the overall expectation for production increase remains unchanged, with regional differences in lead ingot supply. Consumption is still in the off-season, with weak demand for car battery replacements, providing insufficient support for high lead prices. Attention is still needed on the pullback pressure near 17,880 yuan/mt. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with active market trading. Jinchuan premiums rebounded to 2,000 yuan/mt, while Russian nickel discounts were at 25 yuan/mt and electrodeposited nickel discounts at 100 yuan/mt. High-grade NPI prices remained strong, with Indonesian ore still affecting raw material pricing, and the latest quote was at 1,027 yuan/mtu. In terms of inventories, NPI inventories fell sharply by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventories dropped by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventories slightly decreased to 990,000 mt. After the price decline, NPI remains the main support on the cost side, with strong support estimated near 130,000 yuan/mt. Technically, SHFE nickel has not yet weakened, waiting for shorts to mature. 【Tin】 SHFE tin fluctuated with a bearish line, briefly recovering 275,000 yuan/mt, with SMM spot tin at 273,700 yuan/mt today. Overnight, LME tin inventories decreased to 3,555 mt, with LME 0-3 month spot discounts at $55/mt. Currently, it is recommended that mid- and downstream buyers place orders near 275,000 yuan/mt as needed. Wa State is advancing the resumption of tin mine production, but the realization path is medium-term; the situation in the DRC remains unclear. Downstream, the market is concerned about the risk of the US imposing tariffs on chips, which may affect demand. It is inclined that tin prices will mainly fluctuate between 275,000-280,000 yuan/mt this week.