[SMM Tin Morning Brief: Macro Sentiment and Spot Trades in a Tug-of-War; Tin Prices Retreat After Rapid Rise and Enter Consolidation]

[SMM Tin Morning Update: SHFE Tin Prices Opened Slightly Higher in the Night Session and Then Consolidated at High Levels; As Prices Rebounded, Spot Cargo Transactions Gradually Cooled]

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: SHFE Tin's Most-Traded Contract Fluctuates at Highs During Night Session Spot Market Transactions Remain Sluggish]

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs on First Trading Day After Holiday, Spot Tin Supply Tight but Demand Yet to Pick Up]

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - Tin Session , Chen Peng, Senior Tin Analyst at SMM, discussed the theme of changes in the global tin industry chain landscape and future development trends. 1. Global Tin Resource Distribution and Supply Landscape Intensified Resource Scarcity: Static Mining Lifespan Less Than 15 Years China accounts for 22% of global tin ore reserves but contributes 45% of global production, with resource development intensity exceeding critical thresholds. • Global tin resources are highly concentrated, with China, Indonesia, and Myanmar collectively accounting for over 50%. China, as the largest producer (45% of production), and Indonesia form a dual-core driving force, yet with significant differences in resource endowments. Tin Ore Segment: Global tin ore production is also primarily concentrated in countries with high reserves • Global tin ore production is mainly concentrated in countries such as China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and the DRC. • Except during the COVID-19 pandemic period, global tin ore production has consistently remained at the level of 300,000 mt in metal content annually. Tin Ore Segment: Tin ore imports continued to decline in 2025, with cumulative YoY imports for January-April 2025 at -47.98%. The contraction of tin ore supply from Myanmar has become a long-term trend. • The market generally expects that Wa State may resume production by mid-2025, but the initial increase will not exceed 10,000 mt in metal content, and it will require a 2-3 month transmission period. The progress of production resumption will be constrained by Sino-Myanmar mining trade negotiations and the centralization process in Wa State. Tin Ore Segment: Myanmar's Dominance Weakens, Diversified Landscape Accelerates • Before 2023: Myanmar once accounted for 72%-85% of China's tin ore imports. However, after the implementation of the mining ban policy in Wa State in August 2023, its supply volume plummeted. By 2024, Myanmar's import share dropped to 48.1%, and further declined to 24%-30% in 2025. The core mining area, Mansang (accounting for 80% of Myanmar's supply), remains in a state of suspension. • Emergence of Alternative Sources: Imports from Africa (DRC, Nigeria), South America (Peru, Bolivia), and Australia have increased significantly. For example, in 2025, the import share from the DRC rose to 28%, Nigeria's import share reached 11%, and Australia's imports surged by 101% YoY. The 20-day moving average of recent tin ore import profit margins has remained stable. ►Risk Point Reminder: African Supply Chain Stability to Be Verified: Operational risks at Alphamin mine in the DRC (short-term suspension in April 2025). Global Refined Tin Landscape Features "Asia-Dominated, South America-Supported, Africa-Supplemented" • In the global tin industry chain, most smelting and refining activities are concentrated near tin ore production sites. Countries such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Peru, Thailand, the DRC, Bolivia, and Brazil all have smelters of a certain scale, with China and Indonesia accounting for a relatively high proportion. The production resumption process in the Wa region of Myanmar has commenced, but due to the impact of earthquakes and rising policy implementation costs, the actual increase may fall short of expectations. The core contradiction in the tin ore event chain in the DRC lies in the game between geopolitical conflicts and resource dependence. Risk Points: Stability of the African supply chain to be verified: As the largest importer, China's refined tin industry chain is significantly affected by disruptions in the DRC, while the growth in demand for AI, new energy, etc., further exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance. 2. Global Tin Consumption Structure and Demand Evolution Terminal Segment: Tin Consumption Structure • In the global tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 48%, tin chemicals 16%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tin alloys 7%. • In China's tin consumption structure, tin solder accounts for 67%, tin chemicals 12%, lead-acid batteries 7%, and tinplate 6%. Terminal Segment: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) shows a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries. AI demand has driven the capacity utilisation rate of semiconductor companies to record highs. • In the past two years, the SOX has shown a significant negative correlation with the real yield of 10-year US Treasuries, primarily driven by liquidity expectations and valuation pressures. • In 2024, the capacity utilisation rate of the US computer and semiconductor industry remained stable at 76.53%-78.44%, close to the average over the past 10 years (76.72%). In specific segments, the semiconductor capacity utilisation rate reached 95% in Q1 2025, a record high, reflecting the supply-demand tension driven by AI demand. Terminal Segment: The cumulative YoY growth rate of PVC resin production has dropped back slightly, while key enterprises producing tinplate have operated smoothly throughout the year. • The construction of commercial housing is not an isolated process; it is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for building materials. Despite two consecutive years of decline in the sales area of commercial housing, completion demand and policy support (such as ensuring timely delivery of housing projects and infrastructure investment) have driven PVC consumption growth, with a "weak positive correlation" maintained between the two in the past two years. • In the past two years, the tinplate industry has exhibited a differentiated pattern of "shortage in the high-end segment and surplus in the low-end segment". Leading enterprises have consolidated their advantages through technological upgrades and export markets, while small and medium-sized enterprises face integration pressures. However, overall production has remained at a relatively stable level and is expected to maintain its current magnitude in the future. 3. Inventory Cycle and Supply Chain Resilience Building Inventory Link: China's tin ingot social inventory exhibits significant cyclical characteristics •From February to March 2025, inventory showed an alternating pattern of "increase-decrease", mainly due to the release of downstream restocking demand coupled with fluctuations in SHFE tin prices. •Inventory changes in tin ingots are highly correlated with prices, seasonal demand (e.g., the "September-October peak season"), and policy adjustments (e.g., production restrictions in smelting), exhibiting a cyclical pattern of "inventory buildup in H1 and destocking in H2". It also elaborated on the inventory levels within China's tin industry chain. 4. Changes in the Global Tin Industry Chain Landscape and Future Development Trends In 2024, the global tin market was characterized by "regional shortages and a slight global deficit" The tin market achieved a tight balance amid supply disruptions and demand differentiation in 2024, and is expected to shift towards a slight surplus in 2025. However, structural contradictions (uneven regional supply recovery, emerging demand growth) will dominate price fluctuations. The market should closely monitor the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar, Indonesia's exports, and the semiconductor industry's recovery, while guarding against unexpected shocks from macro policies and geopolitical risks. ►SMM Outlook •In 2024, the global tin ingot market was characterized by concurrent supply contraction and weak demand recovery. Affected by factors such as the suspension of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa region and delayed approval of Indonesia's export quotas, global tin ore production declined YoY. However, the release of unreported inventory and the supplementation of recycled tin alleviated supply pressures, leading to a slight increase in annual refined tin production to approximately 374,000 mt. On the demand side, weak recovery in the semiconductor industry and a slowdown in PV growth dragged down global consumption to around 373,000 mt, resulting in a supply-demand gap of approximately 11,000 mt. •In 2025, expectations for production resumptions in Myanmar (with potential output increases in H2) and full production at new projects in the DRC and China will drive supply growth. On the demand side, the upward trend in the semiconductor cycle, coupled with the application of AI technology and growth in NEVs, may increase global consumption to 375,000 mt. However, growth in traditional sectors (e.g., tinplate, home appliance exports) will slow down to 2.1%-3.5% due to trade frictions. The annual supply-demand gap may narrow to 5,100 mt, but geopolitical risks (Myanmar's political situation, Indonesia's exports) may exacerbate volatility. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference

Tin prices have fallen sharply recently. Looking ahead, on the macro front, the US economy is expected to slow down this year, and the US Fed may extend the period of maintaining the current interest rate level. On the supply and demand front, the continuous implementation of trade-in and equipment renewal policies in China is boosting the demand for non-ferrous metals in the manufacturing and consumer sectors. Myanmar's tin ore accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports and 47% of the total domestic tin ore supply. According to customs data, China's tin ore imports in April 2025 were 9,800 mt (equivalent to approximately 4,336 mt (metal content)), up 18.48% MoM and down 4.22% YoY. From January to April, cumulative tin ore imports were 36,700 mt, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98%. Since Myanmar implemented a ban on tin ore mining in August 2023, China's tin ore imports from Myanmar have remained at a low level due to the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of production. The downward trend in import volumes continued in April 2025, primarily due to unstable import profitability and the impact of the situation in Myanmar's Wa region. The tight supply of tin ore has led to a 40% decline in processing fees. The processing fee for tin concentrates in Yunnan Province dropped from 17,000 yuan/mt from May to July 2024 to 12,000 yuan/mt, which is lower than the 13,550 yuan/mt at the end of March 2023 and close to the cost line of some enterprises, leading to production cuts by some enterprises. Currently, processing fees are hovering near the lowest levels in the past six years. The tight supply of tin ore has been transmitted to the refined tin smelting sector. The shortage of ore sources is directly reflected in production data: in the week ending May 23, the operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 56.44%, down 0.66 percentage points from the previous week, with operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi being 65.48% and 41.02%, respectively. In Yunnan, smelters are under sustained profit pressure due to low tin ore imports from Myanmar and depressed processing fees. In Jiangxi, some enterprises are struggling to resume production due to insufficient recycling volume of scrap tin and declining processing fees. In April 2025, China's refined tin production was 15,200 mt, down 0.5% MoM and 8.1% YoY. It is expected that production will increase by approximately 2% MoM in May. In downstream industries, tin solder demand accounts for 68%, with the semiconductor sector accounting for 80% of total tin solder demand. In April 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises was 76.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low in May. Currently, orders from traditional downstream industries have not yet surged, with just-in-time procurement being the main focus, and spot market transactions remain sluggish. However, global semiconductor demand provides long-term support for the tin market. Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% YoY in Q1 2025, and the market size is expected to grow by 11% YoY for the full year, potentially boosting global tin demand by 4.4%. Additionally, the operating rate of primary lead production in the three provinces rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 67.75% last week. Despite the off-season in the battery market limiting further rebounds in the operating rate, production remained at a high level in recent years. The domestic tin market has entered a destocking cycle, but the rate of destocking has slowed. As of the end of last week, SHFE tin inventory stood at 8,445 mt, a decrease of 28 mt from the previous week; LME tin inventory was 2,665 mt, down 70 mt from the prior week. According to SMM data, the total social inventory of tin ingots in the three regions was 10,333 mt on May 27, an increase of 374 mt from the previous week. The tin market is exhibiting a pattern of "constrained supply and promising demand." Conflicts in the DRC and earthquakes in Myanmar have heightened market concerns about the supply side. Coupled with the delay in the production resumptions in Wa State, refined tin production continued to decline YoY. Despite being in the off-season, the growth in demand from the semiconductor industry provides some support to the tin market. From a cost perspective, current prices are approaching the range of the tariff floor and cost floor. SHFE tin below 258,000 yuan/mt presents an opportunity to establish long positions at lows, with a medium-term target above 290,000 yuan/mt and a long-term target above 330,000 yuan/mt. (Source: Futures Daily)

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The Tin Market is Facing a Dual Game of Macro Pressure and Fundamental Tight Balance] Currently, the tin market is facing a dual game of macro pressure and fundamental tight balance. Internationally, the US GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ in Q1, with core PCE inflation rising to 3.5%, consumer confidence falling to a historical low, and the manufacturing PMI pulling back to 48.7, intensifying downward economic pressure. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time but emphasized rising risks of inflation and unemployment. The US dollar index's high volatility continued to suppress the valuation of non-ferrous metals. Domestically, refined tin production in May is expected to decline MoM. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is only 56.85%, with low TCs squeezing profits and leading to a persistent tight supply. Although the first batch of tin concentrates from the Bisie tin mine in the DRC was shipped on May 9, they will not enter the smelting process until June, making it difficult to alleviate inventory shortages in the short term. The production resumption progress in Myanmar's Wa region is slow, and Indonesia's export recovery has not yet reached significant volumes, so the supply gap in Q2 will persist. The weak demand trend has not improved. High tin ingot prices (SHFE tin spot prices remain at 240,000-265,000 yuan/mt) significantly suppress the restocking willingness of electronics/home appliance companies, and the blocked industry chain transmission further reduces scrap circulation. Structural bright spots are concentrated in the new energy sector—PV welding strips and NEVs...

Weak supply and demand in fundamentals, short-term fluctuations in tin prices, "waiting for the wind" - macro factors may become the key to breaking the deadlock!

SMM News on May 13: As Alphamin announced the phased production resumption at the Bisie mine and the successful convening of the Myanmar tin mine production resumption meeting, market expectations for a tight future supply of tin ore have improved. However, concerns over uncertainties in global economic growth and demand prospects triggered by tariffs have also weighed on tin prices. Coupled with a significant decline in market risk appetite, tin prices, which hit a new high in early April, have since seen a notable correction. Ultimately, LME tin fell 14.46% in April, while SHFE tin dropped 9.03% in the same month. After the sharp decline in April, since entering May, except for notable fluctuations in LME tin during the first two trading days of the month, both LME tin and SHFE tin have mainly fluctuated rangebound. As of around 15:37 on May 13, LME tin was down 0.09%, trading at $32,545/mt, with its monthly line for May temporarily up 3.83%; SHFE tin was up 0.37%, trading at 262,070 yuan/mt, with its monthly line for May temporarily up 0.1%. 》Click to view SMM Futures Data Dashboard On the spot market Tin spot prices fell % in April 》View SMM Tin Spot Quotes 》Subscribe to view SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices In terms of tin spot prices: According to SMM quotes, the average price of SMM Grade 1 tin spot on March 31 was 282,200 yuan/mt, while on April 30, it was 261,200 yuan/mt. Over the course of a month, the average price fell by 21,000 yuan/mt, representing a 7.44% decline in April. Since entering May, tin spot prices have fluctuated, with the average price of SMM Grade 1 tin spot on May 13 being 262,100 yuan/mt, a slight increase of 900 yuan/mt compared to the average price of 261,200 yuan/mt on April 30, marking a 0.34% rise. Fundamentals Refined tin production in April declined both MoM and YoY Production: According to SMM data based on market exchange processing, in April 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.52% MoM and fell by 8.13% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrates and scrap tin supply chains has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate. Yunnan production area: There is significant pressure on the raw material side, with Myanmar ore imports remaining below the 10,000 mt physical tonne warning line for several consecutive months. The tin concentrates treatment charge (TC) has remained at historically low levels, putting pressure on smelter profits and limiting production enthusiasm. Production resumption status: In April, the capacity utilisation rate rebounded slightly, but due to the impact of the production halt at the Bisie tin mine in the DRC (accounting for 6% of global supply) and the extended preparation period for production resumption in Myanmar, the raw material shortage has intensified, and the operating rate remains below the level of Q4 2024.​Jiangxi Production Region: Relying on the scrap tin recycling system, the recycling volume of scrap tin declined after the Lunar New Year. Coupled with the decrease in processing fees, the production costs of smelters in the Jiangxi region continued to rise, leading some smelters to gradually cut production, making it difficult to restore previous production levels in the future.​Inner Mongolia Production Region: Affected by its own mine production, production was hindered in April, resulting in a slight decline in output.​Anhui and Emerging Production Regions: Affected by the shortage of scrap and tin concentrates, overall production fell short of expectations, and the operating rate declined slightly. 》Click to view details The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low 》Click to access the SMM Tin Industry Chain Database According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of May 9, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 57.16%. Yunnan: The operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan remained low due to a shortage of raw materials, significantly lower than the level in Q4 2024. The imports of tin ore from Myanmar have been below the 5,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. Additionally, the Bisie tin mine in the DRC has not yet fully resumed production. Alphamin Resources Corp. announced a phased resumption of operations at the Bisie mine, emphasizing the gradual return of employees and the stockpiling of sufficient supplies to ensure the continuity of production resumptions. It is expected that the resumption of production will alleviate the supply tightness originally scheduled for Q2 2025, but a full recovery will take several months. Normalization of Low Operating Rates: The operating rates of smelters in Jiangxi remain low, primarily relying on the scrap tin recycling system. Some enterprises have been forced to cut production due to insufficient scrap. Intensified Cost Pressures: The difficulty in recycling scrap tin has increased, coupled with a decrease in processing fees, leading to a continuous rise in production costs for enterprises. Some production capacities may permanently exit the market. Suppressed End-Use Demand: High tin ingot prices have led to weak restocking intentions in the electronics/home appliance industries, causing blockages in the industry chain transmission and further reducing the circulation of scrap. SMM Reports Increase in Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in Three Regions Domestic Social Inventory of Tin Ingots: According to an SMM survey, as of May 9, the total social inventory of tin ingots in the three regions surveyed by SMM was 10,193 mt, an increase of 360 mt compared to the inventory data from the previous trading week. LME Tin Inventory: The LME tin inventory data on March 31 was 3,050 mt, and on April 30, it was 2,755 mt, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory in April. The latest LME tin inventory data on May 13 was 2,790 mt, showing a slight increase compared to April 30. SMM Outlook Macro Aspects: Following the release of the joint statement from the China-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, market concerns about global trade conflicts have eased, and market risk appetite has rebounded. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of China's total social financing, new RMB loans, and official PMI data for May, as well as US data such as April's CPI, weekly initial jobless claims, April's core PCE price index, and May's PMI on tin prices. Fundamentals: In terms of supply: Based on SMM's estimates, it is expected that with the resumption of production by some enterprises that halted operations for maintenance, refined tin production in May may increase QoQ. Additionally, since the restart of the Bisie tin mine, the first batch of fully documented and approved tin concentrates available for export was shipped by truck on May 9, 2025. According to SMM, the transportation cycle for tin concentrates from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to Asia typically takes 4-6 weeks. The first batch shipped on May 9 is expected to enter the smelting process in June. In the short term, the spot tin market will still face inventory tightness pressures. However, as the phased resumption of production at the Bisie tin mine progresses, it may curb the speculative sentiment that had been driven by geopolitical risks, thereby suppressing SHFE tin prices. On the demand side: No significant improvement has been observed so far. The spot market remains sluggish due to high tin prices, and it is expected that until new demand drivers emerge, the weak demand situation will continue to exert certain pressure on tin prices. In summary, the favourable macro environment may support tin prices, while the weak supply and demand on the fundamentals side, along with the easing of market expectations for tight supply, have weakened the fundamental support for tin prices. Before significant improvements occur in the tin market's fundamentals, short-term attention should be paid to the guidance of macro trends on tin prices. It is expected that until significant favourable or unfavourable macro factors emerge, tin prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound. Recommended Readings: 》SMM Releases Metal Production Data for April 2025 》Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market Supply and Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025 [SMM Analysis] 》[SMM Analysis] Operating Rates of Refined Tin Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Remain Low, with Tight Supply of Raw Materials

[SMM Monthly Outlook: LME and SHFE Tin Prices Decline for Two Consecutive Months; With Intensified Macroeconomic Game, the Pace of Production Resumptions in Major Producing Regions Becomes the Core Variable Affecting Tin Price Trends] Unlike the sharp decline in tin prices in April, tin prices in May generally fluctuated rangebound. As May month-end approached, despite the short-term tight supply situation of tin ore not yet improving, market expectations for supply recovery due to the gradual resumption of production at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa region and the DRC increased. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the US tariff policy led to a cooling of market risk appetite, resulting in a significant correction in tin prices. As of around 18:10 on May 30, LME tin fell by 1.56% to $30,750/mt, with a temporary monthly decline of 1.91% in May; SHFE tin dropped by 2.87% to 250,300 yuan/mt, with a monthly decline of 4.39% in May.