[SMM Aluminum Flash] According to multiple media reports, following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, prices in the international energy and metals markets fluctuated significantly. WTI crude oil futures fell by over 5%, while European natural gas prices plunged more than 10%. In the metals market, LME aluminum prices declined during the evening session, dropping over 5% to $3,357/mt. China's most-traded SHFE aluminum contract was also affected, with open interest rising by over 14,000 lots and the price falling by as much as 2% to 23,730 yuan/mt. Market concerns now center on persistently high operating aluminum capacity in China, while new and resumed aluminum capacity outside China will also put pressure on LME aluminum prices.

SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Today, export FOB prices for rebar rose slightly by about USD 2/tonne. According to market traders, inquiry activity was relatively decent, but actual transactions remained average. Some participants also noted that long steel demand in South America has been relatively stable recently, while demand in the Middle East remains weak. Regarding the US–Iran peace agreement, there has been no significant change in order flow so far, and overall market sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. [Billet] Today, export billet offers increased slightly by around USD 2/tonne, with prices at approximately USD 473–476/tonne FOB. Market feedback indicates that countries such as Indonesia and India are actively exporting billets, leading to intensified competition. However, domestic export price advantages are not obvious, as rising production costs are limiting steel mills’ willingness to discount, while traders are also more cautious in taking short positions. As a result, overall transaction activity remained moderate. [HRC] Today, export prices for flat steel products rose by USD 2/tonne day-on-day. Hot-rolled coil transaction prices were in the range of USD 497–506/tonne. Market inquiry activity was moderate, with no significant release of concluded deals. Recently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] Ship-breaking scrap prices in the Alang (Gujarat) market increased by around 3 USD/tonne, with HMS (80:20) assessed at approximately 373 USD/tonne EXW. Semi-finished steel prices remained broadly stable, while finished steel saw a mild correction in the previous trading session. Market sentiment in Alang stayed subdued, as vessel arrivals remained at historically low levels. Strong freight economics continued to incentivize shipowners to extend the operating life of older vessels, limiting scrap inflows. In the near term, Alang scrap prices are expected to remain supported but constrained by tight supply conditions, with further movement largely dependent on vessel arrivals and downstream steel demand. [Thailand] Galvanizing quotes in the Thai market remained stable in the short term, with import offers still around 710 USD/tonne; however, for large-volume firm orders, the market could consider offering a discount of 5-10 USD/tonne. Wire rod quotes were also relatively stable, but some traders had to push up prices by 20 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne due to rising costs. In terms of local market transactions, downstream end-use demand was weak, and actual deals mostly shifted to a "negotiate deal by deal" model. It is expected that in the short term, Thai wire rod and galvanizing prices will hover at highs. Whether prices can subsequently stabilize on a solid footing will mainly depend on the release of downstream firm orders and the final bargaining and concession room offered by sellers under shipment pressure. [South Korea] Facing the approaching rainy season, South Korean builders are racing against time to push forward the final “intensive rush to meet deadlines” for foundation and main structure works, and the upward momentum of finished steel prices has slowed significantly. Today, POSCO’s two core steelworks (Pohang and Gwangyang) simultaneously raised the purchase price of high-quality pig iron scraps/premium steel scrap by 15,000 won/tonne (approximately 9.93 USD/tonne), and medium and light scrap by 10,000 won/tonne (approximately 6.62 USD/tonne), mainly to prevent domestic supply from being snapped up by other EAF steel mills before the off-season arrives. POSCO had no choice but to raise buying prices against the trend to “lock in” domestic spot cargo flows.

In mid-June 2026, the CAAM and the China Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance successively released relevant data on the automobile and power battery markets for May 2026. The CAAM stated that in May, auto production and sales rose MoM but edged down YoY. Affected by multiple factors including policy adjustments, changes in market structure, and a macro environment under pressure, the Chinese market continued to show a double-digit decline YoY; meanwhile, exports were strong and sustained rapid growth. .......SMM has compiled the relevant data on the automobile and power battery markets for May 2026, for readers’ reference. Automobile CAAM: May Auto Production and Sales Reached 2.616 Million and 2.629 Million Units, Both Up MoM In May, auto production and sales reached 2.616 million and 2.629 million units, up 1.6% and 4.1% MoM respectively , and down 1.2% and 2.1% YoY respectively. From January to May, auto production and sales totaled 12.235 million and 12.207 million units, down 4.6% and 4.2% YoY respectively, with the declines narrowing further compared with the first four months. CAAM: May NEV Production and Sales Rose 22.4% and 14.4% YoY Respectively; NEV Sales Accounted for 47.5% of Total New Vehicle Sales In May, NEV production and sales reached 1.554 million and 1.496 million units, up 22.4% and 14.4% YoY respectively . NEV sales accounted for 56.9% of total new vehicle sales. From January to May, NEV production and sales reached 5.841 million and 5.802 million units, up 2.5% and 3.5% YoY respectively, and NEV sales accounted for 47.5% of total new vehicle sales. CAAM: NEV Exports More Than Doubled in May and January-May In May, NEV exports reached 446,000 units, up 3.8% MoM and 110% YoY. Of these, passenger NEV exports stood at 435,000 units, up 3.4% MoM and 110% YoY; commercial NEV exports reached 12,000 units, up 21% MoM and 48.1% YoY. From January to May, NEV exports totaled 1.833 million units, up 110% YoY . Of these, passenger NEV exports were 1.792 million units, up 120% YoY; commercial NEV exports were 41,000 units, up 0.6% YoY. The CAAM commented that in May, auto production and sales rose MoM but edged down YoY. Affected by multiple factors such as policy adjustments, market structure changes, and a macro environment under pressure, the Chinese market continued to see a double-digit decline YoY; exports developed robustly, sustaining a rapid growth trajectory. By car model, passenger vehicle sales edged down YoY, commercial vehicle sales maintained growth, and the NEV market stabilized and rebounded. Since the beginning of this year, the auto market has exhibited a pronounced characteristic of "domestic demand under pressure, foreign trade strong." The industry's operations have faced multiple challenges, including insufficient domestic demand, high costs, and external shocks. On the end-user side, policies and market expectations should be stabilized, industry governance deepened, restrictive measures introduced cautiously, and the consumption baseline solidified; on the foreign trade side, it is necessary to deepen international development, effectively address various risks and challenges, and strengthen the stabilizing support role of the international cycle. Meanwhile, the CPCA also released data on the passenger vehicle market for May. From May 1st to 31st, retail sales of passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.51 million units, down 22.1% YoY, but up 9.2% MoM; cumulative retail sales since the start of the year reached 7.099 million units, down 19.5% YoY. In the NEV segment, May NEV retail sales fell 7% YoY, with domestic brands declining 10%, mainstream joint ventures growing 51%, and luxury brands growing 8%. Domestic retail sales of domestic economy EVs were significantly impacted by the sharp drop in subsidies. Due to strong subsidies for NEV commercial vehicles, the low and mid-end MPV segment experienced a relatively large decline. In terms of NEV exports, passenger NEV exports in May reached 424,000 units , up 112.6% YoY and up 4.4% MoM. These accounted for 54.1% of total passenger vehicle exports, an increase of 9.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among them, BEVs accounted for 59.3% of NEV exports (compared to 66.1% same period last year), with the core focal A00+A0 class BEVs accounting for 53.8% of BEV exports (compared to 50.7% same period last year). Alongside the emerging scale advantages of Chinese NEVs and the demand for market expansion, an increasing number of Chinese-made NEV branded products are going overseas, with their recognition outside China continuously improving. Among NEV exports, narrow-body plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for 36.2% (compared to 31.9% same period last year), and extended-range EVs accounted for 4.4% (compared to 2.0% same period last year). Although external interference from certain countries has occurred recently, the export of domestic narrow-body plug-in hybrids to developing countries has grown rapidly and shows bright prospects. The CPCA stated that the domestic passenger vehicle market in May 2026 presented an operational dynamic of overall volume under pressure, MoM strengthening, and extreme structural differentiation, without achieving a substantive recovery overall. The slight recovery in the auto market in May was mainly attributed to the evident effectiveness of the industry's "anti-involution" efforts, stabilizing automaker sales promotions and weakening the consumer expectation of price cuts. This, combined with the warmth-boosting effect of the Beijing Auto Show, released some pent-up car purchase demand, forming a phased terminal rebound. It said that the core features of the auto market in May were the collapse of internal combustion engine vehicle domestic sales, the strong dominance of new energy vehicles, and the counter-trend growth of exports. The main cause of the domestic auto market decline was the sharp contraction in fuel vehicle sales under the impact of high oil prices. In May, fuel vehicles accounted for a 37.1% share, but their YoY decline contributed 82% of the total decline in passenger vehicles, dragging down the overall market trend. Factors such as high oil prices and consumption transformation accelerated the "fuel-to-electric substitution" process. This month, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to exceed 60%, reaching a historical high of 62.9%. The electrification transformation of joint venture brands accelerated. In May, sales of new energy JV car models grew 51% YoY, while fuel vehicle sales fell 41% YoY. Exports continued to be the industry's core growth engine. In May, the share of new energy in exports hit a new high of 54%, but fuel vehicle exports also showed strong performance with 46% growth, forming an exceptionally strong performance of China's all-round export growth. Characteristics of the passenger vehicle market in May 2026: 1. Overall volume was under pressure, with major structural divergence, and "fuel cold, new energy hot" became the biggest focus. The core reason for the decline in domestic retail was the "fuel collapse," which drove the new energy retail penetration rate to break through 60% to 62.9% (a new high), with the pace of electrification substitution exceeding expectations. 2. The electrification transformation of joint venture brands accelerated. In May, domestic retail sales of mainstream JV new energy vehicles grew 51% YoY, while the overall growth rate of domestic new energy vehicles slowed by 10%. JV brands such as Buick (with new energy accounting for 45%) began to show initial results in their shift to new energy. 3. Exports showed explosive growth, with new energy accounting for 54% (a new high) in exports, driven by both new energy and domestic brands, and going global becoming the core growth engine. 4. Clear characteristics of passive destocking and a relatively rapid decline in channel inventories. Listed dealers suffered overall losses, and dealer survival pressure continued to increase. 5. Independent brands made notable breakthroughs in the high-end segment, with retail sales of passenger vehicles in the 200,000-300,000 yuan, 300,000-400,000 yuan, and above 400,000 yuan price segments all exceeding 50%. 6. Micro EVs were under pressure, A-class cars shrank, entry-level consumption badly needed support, and the launch of economy EV standards was eagerly anticipated. Power Battery Update In April, power and ESS battery sales grew 47.4% YoY. January-May cumulative sales grew 48.5% YoY. In May, China's power and ESS battery sales reached 182.2 GWh, up 11.0% MoM and 47.4% YoY . Among them, power battery sales were 127.0 GWh, accounting for 69.7% of total sales, up 16.6% MoM and 45.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, accounting for 30.3% of total sales, down 0.1% MoM but up 52.7% YoY. From January to May, China's cumulative power and ESS battery sales reached 783.4 GWh, up 48.5% YoY . Of this, cumulative power battery sales reached 527.9 GWh, accounting for 67.4% of total sales, up 34.9% YoY; cumulative ESS battery sales were 255.5 GWh, accounting for 32.6% of total sales, up 87.7% YoY. May China power battery installations up 25.9% YoY, LFP share at 81.2% In May, China's power battery installations reached 71.9 GWh, up 15.2% MoM and 25.9% YoY . Ternary battery installations were 13.4 GWh, accounting for 18.6% of total installations, up 15.9% MoM and 27.3% YoY; LFP battery installations were 58.4 GWh, accounting for 81.2% of total installations, up 14.9% MoM and 25.4% YoY. From January to May, cumulative power battery installations in China reached 259.1 GWh, up 7.3% YoY . Ternary battery cumulative installations were 50.8 GWh, accounting for 19.6% of total installations, up 13.3% YoY; LFP battery cumulative installations were 208.2 GWh, accounting for 80.4% of total installations, up 6.0% YoY. May: Leap Motor dominated among NEV startups; BYD's export growth impressive In early June, May domestic NEV sales/delivery figures were released. BYD continued to lead the global NEV market with sales exceeding 380,000 units. Among domestic NEV startups, Leap Motor's outstanding performance once again ignited market enthusiasm, setting a new monthly delivery record with over 80,000 units! Details are as follows: BYD: According to its announcement, BYD sold a total of 383,453 vehicles in May, including 376,990 passenger vehicles. By brand: Dynasty/Ocean series sold 330,215 units; Fang Cheng Bao sold 30,186 units; Denza sold 16,303 units; Yangwang sold 286 units. From January to May, BYD's cumulative sales reached 1,405,039 units. The company's cumulative NEV sales surpassed 16.5 million units. BYD's sales recovery was mainly supported by exports. Data shows that in May, BYD's overseas sales reached 161,000 units, up 80.4% YoY. NEV Startups: In May, Leap Motor delivered 81,569 vehicles across its entire lineup, up 81% YoY, setting a new historical high for monthly deliveries. The company's NEV sales grew steadily, maintaining its lead. Leap Motor also performed excellently in Italy's pure electric vehicle market, with monthly registrations reaching 4,765 units, up 1,278% YoY, and its pure electric market share reaching a record high of 34.5%. NIO delivered a total of 37,705 new vehicles in May, up 62.3% YoY and 28.4% MoM. Specifically, NIO brand deliveries reached 20,013 units, up 50.8% YoY; Ledao brand delivered 12,029 units, up 91.5% YoY and 124.8% MoM; and Firefly brand delivered 5,663 units, up 53.9% YoY and 13.7% MoM. In the first five months of this year, NIO delivered a total of 150,526 new vehicles, representing a 68.7% YoY increase. To date, NIO's cumulative deliveries have reached 1,148,118 units. Li Auto ranked third among NEV startups with monthly deliveries of 33,350 units this time. As of May 31, 2026, Li Auto's cumulative deliveries reached 1,702,792 units. Li Xiang, Chairman and CEO of Li Auto, said that since Q1 this year, Li Auto's deliveries have entered a growth trajectory, reclaiming the top spot among Chinese brands in the NEV market priced above 200,000 yuan. As of May 31, 2026, Li Auto had 498 retail centers across China, covering 160 cities; and 543 after-sales repair centers and authorized service centers, covering 222 cities. Li Auto has put into use 4,088 Li Auto supercharging stations nationwide, equipped with 22,563 charging piles. XPeng Motors delivered 32,158 new vehicles in May. On May 20, the new technology flagship XPeng GX was officially launched and began deliveries. Within 12 hours of launch, firm orders reached 24,863 units, with the Ultra flagship edition accounting for over 80% of orders. Showroom traffic and test drive volume hit a record high for the same period of any new car launch, making it one of the most popular products among users in the high-end luxury car market and a key step in XPeng Group's brand elevation. In the global market, XPeng maintained strong momentum. In April, overseas deliveries of the P7+ commenced, and monthly overseas sales exceeded 6,000 units for the first time. As of the end of Q1, XPeng had entered over 60 countries and regions worldwide, with 393 overseas sales outlets. Starting from Q2, international business revenue contribution is expected to exceed 20%. In H2 this year, XPeng plans to deliver four global car models, aiming to achieve sustained monthly overseas sales of over 10,000 units in Q4 and more than double full-year overseas sales. Xiaomi Auto's monthly deliveries continued to exceed 30,000 units in May, and its cumulative deliveries surpassed 139,000 units from January to May. On June 13, the latest news, Lei Jun, Chairman of Xiaomi Group, posted on Weibo that Xiaomi Auto attaches great importance to testing, with massive investment and scale. Currently, the testing team consists of over 800 members, of which over 45% are experts with more than 10 years of experience. This team has conducted tests in more than 300 cities and completed over 35 million kilometers of cumulative testing. Xiaomi Auto has 126 laboratories across four cities—Beijing, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Wuhan—covering a total area of over 65,600 m². It has also rented two full-vehicle comprehensive testing grounds in Yancheng, Jiangsu, and Guangde, Anhui. There is a dedicated team of around 500 personnel for extreme environment testing. This team is split into summer testing and winter testing units and is mainly responsible for four major extreme environment tests: Heihe (extreme cold), Turpan (extreme heat), the Kunlun Mountains (high altitude), and Hainan (high humidity). Overall, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the CPCA, noted that the key features of the auto market in May were “sluggish domestic sales of internal combustion engine vehicles, strong dominance of new energy vehicles, and YoY growth in exports amid headwinds.” Based on the current industry situation, the CPCA adjusted market expectations, revising the decline in full-year domestic passenger vehicle retail sales to 11%, from the 1% decline forecasted at the start of the year. Cui Dongshu stated that the auto market will gradually stabilize and improve in Q3, return to a growth trajectory in Q4, and the full-year decline in domestic passenger vehicle retail sales is expected to narrow to 11%, with the market still holding recovery potential. If the global situation stabilizes, commodity and oil prices return to reasonable ranges, transportation costs subsequently pull back, domestic consumer confidence in car purchases will gradually recover, and the auto retail market will also see a sustained recovery. Looking ahead to June, the CPCA projects that China’s domestic passenger vehicle market in June 2026 will present a weak recovery pattern of “MoM recovery, YoY pressure,” with the market slowly mending based on its own fundamentals. As a month-end period, June sees automakers pushing for their semi-annual sales targets, with OEMs and end-user stores increasing order replenishment efforts, a key positive factor supporting MoM recovery. There will be 21 working days this month, forming a YoY advantage of one extra working day compared to the base of 20 working days in June last year, providing a positive boost to overall production and sales. However, based on past experience, during months when the World Cup is held, the auto market’s sequential performance tends to be weaker. It fell 7% MoM in June 2018, and by 4% MoM in both June 2010 and June 2014. The negative impacts from the previous reduction in passenger vehicle trade-in subsidies and the cooling of the industry price war have been largely absorbed, marking an end to negative policy factors and providing a foundation for market recovery. End-user pace, the auto market showed a “front-loaded and then stabilizing” trend. Combined with the month-end semi-annual sales push effect, the overall monthly trajectory was relatively steady. Notably, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday fell on June 19 this year, significantly later than its May 31 date last year. The concentrated disruption from holiday foot traffic and diverted consumer spending affected the market this month, slightly suppressing mid-month car ordering enthusiasm and partially offsetting some of the benefits from the semi-annual month-end sales push and extra working days. This emerged as a key seasonal factor influencing the monthly trend. It is worth noting that geopolitical conflicts have driven international oil prices to fluctuate at highs, causing the cost of using fuel vehicles in China to keep climbing. This not only directly suppresses the willingness to purchase fuel vehicles but also adds to residents' expenditure pressure, further weakening overall car purchase consumption power and becoming a core factor constraining significant YoY growth in the auto market. At the same time, however, high oil prices have also been continuously accelerating the transition to vehicle electrification. Coupled with the momentum of pushing for half-year targets at the end of June, automakers have introduced compliant concession policies such as interest subsidies and car purchase gift packages for new energy models. Together with the concentrated delivery of multiple new NEV models, the industry's product portfolio has been continuously improved, and strength on the supply side has increased substantially. Currently, industry inventory is being gradually and orderly digested, the vicious price war has largely subsided, and terminals are clearing inventory through mild sales promotions, making market competition trend toward a benign state. Driven by multiple favorable factors, the passenger NEV penetration rate is expected to remain firmly above 60%, with the electrification process continuing to accelerate, becoming the core pillar supporting the resilience of the auto market. Against the backdrop of sluggish domestic demand, automobile exports have become the core pillar of industry growth, creating a pattern of "weak domestic demand, leading overseas demand." Chinese automakers continue to deepen their presence in overseas markets, focusing on diverse markets such as Latin America and Europe, effectively offsetting the impact of declining demand in the Middle East, with export sales maintaining high growth. Relying on the mature domestic new energy industry chain and high-quality products, automobile exports continue to move upscale and upgrade across all categories, effectively offsetting the growth pressure in the Chinese market and supporting the overall stable operation of the industry. Overall, the Passenger Vehicle Association estimates that the auto market's recovery momentum in June will be limited, structural potential remains large, and the overall weak recovery trend will persist.

SMM June 15 news: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated, with aluminum prices holding at relatively high levels. However, high aluminum prices dampened downstream purchasing sentiment, pushing quotes and transaction prices lower. Mainstream spot transaction prices were at a discount of 90–100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in East China stood at 2.96, flat MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index came in at 2.76, down 0.06 MoM. During the night session, aluminum futures prices rose again. Before the opening, quotes in the central China market had already shown a softening trend. After the opening, absolute prices pulled back, but downstream processing enterprises largely stayed on the sidelines, leading to weak purchasing sentiment. Suppliers showed little willingness to hold prices firm, and quotes declined steadily. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in central China centered around a discount of 170–190 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in central China was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index was 2.20, down 0.01 MoM. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventory in major consuming areas fell by 0.7 MoM today, with destocking mainly driven by Guangdong and Wuxi.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review] Silver consumption has gradually picked up since June, with photovoltaic orders increasing and transactions mostly concentrated in the range of parity to a premium of RMB 10/kg. Last week's silver price drop to near-term lows attracted bargain buying from some downstream enterprises, strengthening holders' willingness to offer, and spot premiums have shown a slight firming trend this week. Overall, silver consumption in the PV sector has declined year-on-year, while non-PV industrial demand such as semiconductors and AI servers has yet to see notable growth, leaving the domestic silver market facing surplus pressure. A premium of RMB 10/kg is now considered relatively stable, with limited likelihood of returning to the high premium levels seen in Q1 this year. On the price front, silver fell continuously last week due to stronger-than-expected US non-farm data and geopolitical tensions. This week, news of a potential US-Iran memorandum of understanding has boosted sentiment, and precious metals are expected to see a modest rebound. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, further upside for precious metals remains possible amid evolving macroeconomic policies and geopolitical dynamics.

The global stainless steel market navigated a series of sharp sentiment. The opening weeks saw Indonesia's mill closures and price hikes push the cost narrative to its highest point of the year, before a combination of easing geopolitical tensions triggered the first price reduction since December 2025. The month's defining characteristic was similar to April's. What differentiated May was the sharply higher amplitude of both the policy signals and the emotional swings that accompanied them.

On June 12, a leading PV enterprise officially commenced production of a new-generation perovskite tandem cell line, achieving a stable mass-production conversion efficiency of 31.2%, significantly surpassing the theoretical limit of traditional crystalline silicon cells. By improving encapsulation solutions, the enterprise resolved the perovskite degradation issue, enabling module outdoor service life to reach 30 years. Large wind and solar power bases in western China have already secured initial procurement intentions. The adoption of this new technology will reduce the levelized cost of PV power generation over the long term, driving rising demand for high-end PV auxiliary materials and encapsulation films.

[SMM Nickel News] June 15 update: Floor trading still mainly adopts the futures average price plus premium model, and spot cargo liquidity is tightening. Overall, with futures stabilizing and market sentiment recovering, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm is strengthening, but downstream procurement pace is cautious, and landing of high-priced supply still faces resistance. In the short term, the market may continue the trend of firm offers and mild trading game.

[Magnesium Market Stalemate with Temporary Stability, Transactions Slightly Recover] Today, the 99.90% magnesium ingot price in the main production areas was quoted at 16,300-16,350 yuan/mt, down by 50 yuan/mt from the previous working day.

[SMM Magnesium Express]U.S. company Magrathea announced the completion of a new round of financing, with cumulative capital support exceeding $100 million, accelerating the reconstruction of U.S. magnesium smelting capacity. The company has built the only newly constructed primary magnesium smelter in the U.S., signed multiple commercial agreements, and aims for an annual sales volume of over $500 million in the future. In March 2026, Magrathea secured a $24 million Series A funding round and established Arkansas Magnesia in a joint venture with TETRA. The first-phase commercial plant has initiated engineering design. The company has independently developed a new generation of electrolysis technology, enabling green production of metallic magnesium from seawater and brine. As the project progresses, the U.S. domestic magnesium supply chain's self-sufficiency is expected to gradually strengthen.