[SMM Analysis]Aluminum Processing PMI Rebounded Sharply to 66 in March, Expected to Pull Back in April

As semiconductor demand surged, JX Advanced Metals Corporation, Japan’s semiconductor materials giant (JX Advanced Metals Corp., hereinafter referred to as JX Advanced Metals), plans to increase investment in chip and information technology materials. President Yoichi Hayashi said the company plans to invest about 100 billion yen ($623 million) annually across all business divisions, with a focus on chip-related businesses. Over the past three years, the company invested an average of 90 billion yen per year. JX Advanced Metals is one of the beneficiaries of the rapid buildout of AI data centers, and its clients include global chipmakers such as TSMC, SK Hynix, and Intel. This has prompted the company to shift from its traditional copper smelting business to chip and information technology materials. In an interview, Hayashi said, “I do not think we should blindly expand investment, but it would be a serious mistake to hesitate when there are clear opportunities. I believe now is the time for us to take certain risks.” As demand exceeded expectations, JX Advanced Metals raised its operating profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31 by 20. Sales of indium phosphide, a semiconductor material produced by the company, were strong, and the company said it will make additional investment to expand capacity. Hayashi said that, given tight supply and demand, the company was negotiating with clients to raise product prices. He added that the magnitude of the price increases varied by product, but did not disclose specific details. He believes the war in the Middle East will not have a significant impact on the company’s operations, but is monitoring developments closely. JX aims to achieve operating profit of 200 billion yen in growth segments, including its chip materials business, by the fiscal year ending March 2040. Operating profit for the most recent fiscal year was about 52 billion yen. (Wenhua Composite)

In March, European APT prices surged 30%, driven by persistent supply shortages, widening the price gap with China to over $400/mtu. Tungsten scrap markets saw panic selling mid-month but stabilized toward month-end. China entered a consolidation phase as mining quota were released, yet strong fundamentals point to renewed upside ahead.

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

SMM News, March 30: Data Brief: As of Monday, March 30, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 13.81% WoW from last Monday, with all regions continuing destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, arrivals of imported and domestic cargo were normal, downstream consumption continued to recover, and inventory declined steadily; in Jiangsu, downstream consumption also improved, but the destocking pace slowed somewhat as copper prices rose again; in Guangdong, downstream consumption remained robust, and coupled with tight supply, spot inventory continued to decline. Outlook: imported cargo continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestic cargo slowed somewhat, leaving overall supply tight; on the demand side, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement, and overall consumption slowed slightly from the previous period. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 83.76% this week, up 0.59 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand, the market has now formed a pattern of “stabilizing supply and temporary stabilization in consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue declining this week.

[Multiple Bearish Factors Stall the Uptrend; China’s Tantalum Market Undergoes Short-Term Adjustment While Medium and Long-Term Support Remains Solid] Recently, the sustained upward momentum in China’s tantalum products market came to a halt, with the overall market entering a phase of temporary consolidation and adjustment. Upward momentum slowed markedly in the short term, mainly due to three core factors: the transmission of macro sentiment, changes in circulating supply, and weakening raw material costs.

The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices The Full End of the Philippines' Rainy Season, Coupled With the Fuel Emergency, May Put Downward Pressure on Nickel Ore Prices This week, Philippine nickel ore prices edged down. In terms of prices, Philippine nickel ore CIF China quotations were $64-67/wmt for Ni 1.3% grade, $71-74/wmt for Ni 1.4% grade, and $78-81/wmt for Ni 1.5% grade. The average CIF price from the Philippines to Indonesia was $65.5/wmt for 1.3% grade and $72.5/wmt for 1.4% grade. Weather side, weather conditions in the Philippines improved significantly this week WoW. Rainfall in major mining areas such as Surigao, Homonhon, and Tawi-Tawi trended lower, while Zambales and Palawan remained relatively dry. This shift indicated that major mining areas had gradually entered the mining season, releasing room for nickel ore supply. Demand side, despite elevated freight costs, several Chinese smelters had already started procurement. As of Friday, March 27, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports stood at 4.63 million mt, down 190,000 mt WoW. Current total port inventory was equivalent to about 36,400 mt Ni in metal content. Demand side, domestic NPI prices were basically flat this week, while spot transaction prices fell by about 1,083.5 yuan per nickel unit. Smelters' acceptance of high-priced raw materials had peaked, which may prompt slight concessions in CIF prices, and nickel ore FOB and CIF prices are expected to be more likely to fall than rise in the short term. Indonesia Market: Delayed RKAB Approval Progress, Coupled With Expectations for Policy Transition, Is Expected to Further Lift the Price Center of Nickel Ore This week, prices of Indonesia's local nickel ore rose. Indonesia's nickel ore benchmark price (HPM) for the second half of March was set at $17,329/dmt, up 1.32% MoM. According to SMM's Indonesia nickel ore premium data, average premiums for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were quoted at $36, $40, and $40.5/wmt, respectively. Among them, the domestic-trade port-arrival price for 1.6% grade was $67.6-74.6/wmt. The simultaneous strengthening of both premiums this month reflected the release of smelters' restocking demand and pessimistic expectations over RKAB quota cuts, while the delivered price of 1.2% grade limonite ore also edged up in tandem to $25-27/wmt. From supply and demand fundamentals, as of March 27, 2026, weather conditions across Indonesia's nickel mining areas were as follows: Morowali was expected to see cumulative rainfall of 0.065-0.08 this week, and strong thunderstorms would severely affect open-pit mining and ore transportation; Konawe had scattered showers, with rainfall of about 0.03-0.045 this week; Halmahera was the most stable, mainly cloudy with light rain. The market is currently facing a clear trend of declining grades. Although some NPI smelters had begun accepting nickel ore with grades of 1.45% and below, saprolite ore remained tight in March. At present, as of mid-March, ESDM had approved about 100 million mt of RKAB nickel ore quotas, and the remaining 160 million-170 million mt is expected to complete approval before month-end. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday from March 18 to 24, approval progress may be delayed, making it difficult for the tight supply situation to ease in the short term. Demand side, as some Indonesian smelters faced resource uncertainty and had difficulty obtaining high-grade nickel ore, prices remained strong. To secure raw material supply, some smelters even raised trading bonuses. In addition, some transactions of low-grade humic soil ore also emerged in the market, with fixed prices relatively lower than those of high-grade ore. Limonite ore prices remained at low levels, mainly due to the tailings dam landslide accident at an MHP project in a certain industrial park, which kept related production lines running at low operating rates and hindered the rebound in demand. However, considering RKAB uncertainty, stockpiling demand from new projects, and growing demand from outer islands, limonite ore prices are expected to stay high later by following saprolite ore. Policy side, although rumors about the implementation and delayed release of the new tax regime continued, the specific implementation rules were still under internal review by relevant ministries. Although execution details for specific products such as NPI and MHP still awaited finalisation across ministries, current policy signals may indicate that the era of tax-free exports for Indonesia's nickel intermediate products is about to come to an end. Looking ahead, Indonesia's continued policy tightening is expected to open upside room for nickel ore prices and have a profound impact on the cost structure of the global nickel supply chain.

This week, the tungsten market showed a divergent trend with mild corrections in domestic prices and a contrarian rise in overseas APT prices. Domestic tungsten concentrate and midstream product prices remained relatively firm, while scrap tungsten prices dropped sharply as profit-taking emerged. Supported by a tight supply-demand balance, overseas markets strengthened, further widening the price gap between domestic and international markets.

SMM News, March 27: Data Brief: As of Thursday, March 26, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell 18.29% WoW from last Thursday. Total inventory increased 92,900 mt YoY and has posted destocking for two consecutive weeks. By region, in Shanghai, copper cathode inventory continued to pull back as downstream consumption boosted warehouse withdrawals well above warehouse inflows; in Jiangsu, downstream consumption recovered steadily, and inventory continued to decline in tandem; in Guangdong, consumption remained robust, coupled with tight supply in some areas, driving a faster pace of inventory decline. Looking ahead, on the supply side, imported copper cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestically produced copper decreased somewhat; on the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement. Based on the overall supply-demand pattern, China’s copper cathode supply is expected to remain tight next week, while consumption is expected to stay broadly stable, and weekly inventory is expected to continue destocking.

As of now, Indonesia's MHP nickel FOB price was $15,355/mt Ni, and Indonesia's MHP cobalt FOB price was $51,232/mt Co. MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) were 87-88, and the payable indicator for MHP cobalt element (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 94. Indonesia's high-grade nickel matte FOB price was $15,637/mt Ni.