SMM May 13 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper gained 1.63%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.3%. SHFE lead fell 0.15%. SHFE zinc gained 1.46%. SHFE tin rose 0.08%. SHFE nickel edged down. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.15%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.71%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 3.55%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 2.74%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.62%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 817.5 yuan/mt. Rebar fell 0.7%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.57%. Stainless steel rose 0.16%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.51%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.28%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.6%. LME aluminum rose 0.24%. LME zinc gained 0.4%. LME lead rose 0.3%. LME tin gained 1.29%. LME nickel rose 0.87%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.48%, and COMEX silver gained 1.99%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.55%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.1%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures edged down, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.03%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 3.17%, closing at 2,539.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 13, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices continue to fluctuate at highs, downstream purchasing sentiment remains subdued, intraday buying and selling sentiment both pulled back, and spot discounts continued to widen. According to SMM, downstream orders continued to decline from the previous day... Macro Front [China-US Economic and Trade Consultations Begin in South Korea] At noon local time on May 13, the economic and trade teams of China and the US began China-US economic and trade consultations at Incheon International Airport in Seoul, South Korea. (Xinhua) Domestic: [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieved Net Withdrawal of 25.5 Billion Yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 26 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 25.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.01%, at 98.31. The US CPI rose faster than expected in April, further intensifying concerns about the impact of inflation on the US economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday that, after seasonal adjustment, the overall CPI rose 0.6% MoM and 3.8% YoY. The monthly increase was in line with expectations, but the YoY increase was 0.1 percentage point higher than market expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% and 2.8% respectively, indicating that although inflation remained well above the US Fed's 2% target, pressure mainly came from non-core areas, especially energy. Energy prices rose 3.8%, once again becoming one of the main drivers of rising inflation; food prices also rose 0.5%. For the full year, energy prices rose 17.9% and food prices rose 3.2%. Gasoline price index was up 28.4% YoY. Although energy, especially gasoline, was the main news focus, inflationary pressures also came from multiple other areas. Housing costs rose 0.6%, tariff-sensitive apparel prices rose 0.6%, airfares rose 2.8% with a YoY increase of 20.7%. Tariffs also appeared to have affected other areas, with household furnishings and related expenditures rising 0.7%. (Jin10 Data) According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 97.1%, with a 2.9% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July was 96%, with a 3.9% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report stated that US April inflation continued to run hot, the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict persisted, and compensatory increases in rent inflation pushed up core readings. High inflation continued to erode the real purchasing power of US households, with low-income households facing stronger cost shocks, and real hourly wages YoY turned negative for the first time in three years. We believe the risk of a second wave of US inflation is relatively small, but high oil prices will constrain the room for inflation to pull back within the year. Under the base case scenario, the US Fed is still expected to cut interest rate by 25bps within the year. US Treasuries are currently more suited for trading opportunities. After the strong earnings season nears its conclusion, US equities should be watched for short-term risks of profit-taking. The US dollar index may remain in the doldrums below 100 rather than on a sustained downtrend. Other currencies: According to a latest estimate by the OECD, the Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate is expected to reach 2% by the end of 2027. The report noted that, assuming inflation remains around 2%, the current interest rate is still close to the lower bound of the neutral rate range for the economy. The report also recommended that the Bank of Japan should continue to gradually raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. The Bank of Japan previously estimated that Japan's nominal neutral interest rate was between 1.1% and 2.5%, but noted that there was significant uncertainty regarding the specific level. (Jin10 Data) On the macro front: Data to be released today include France's Q1 ILO unemployment rate, France's April CPI MoM final reading, eurozone Q1 GDP YoY revised reading, eurozone Q1 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final reading, eurozone March industrial output MoM, US April PPI YoY, and US April PPI MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participating in a Q&A session hosted by a local chamber of commerce; 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins delivering a speech at the Boston Economic Club; Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12–13 for trade consultations with the US side; and US President Trump's state visit to China. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.03% and Brent down 1.06%. Iran presented its "entry ticket" for nuclear talks with the US, including unfreezing assets and recognizing sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated: "When negotiating with Iran, I don't consider the financial situation of the American people. I don't consider anyone." Meanwhile, the US Secretary of Defense said the Iran ceasefire agreement remained in effect. (Jin10 Data) American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that US crude oil inventory fell for the fourth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventory increased. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 8 was -2.188 million barrels, versus expectations of -1.654 million barrels and a prior reading of -8.141 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 8 was 502,000 barrels, versus expectations of -2.549 million barrels and a prior reading of -6.107 million barrels. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report indicated that if the Strait of Hormuz were closed through the end of June, crude oil prices would be $20/barrel higher than the current forecast, which assumes reopening by the end of May. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 7: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 0.43%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.76%, SHFE lead fell 0.36%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, SHFE tin rose 3.16%, and SHFE nickel fell 3.33%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.85%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.49%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.08%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 2.03%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 4.79%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose 0.55%, rebar rose 0.68%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.29%, and stainless steel fell 1.12%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.22%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.2%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.22%, LME aluminum fell 1.16%, LME lead rose 0.23%, LME zinc fell 0.29%, LME tin fell 1.71%, and LME nickel fell 0.13%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.39% and COMEX silver rose 1.35%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.11%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.43%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 3.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.71%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.35%, closing at 2,355.5 points. As of 11:41 on May 7, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot cargo and fundamentals Nickel: On May 7, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 5,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations resulted in a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan for the day] The PBOC conducted 27 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drain of 99.2 billion yuan was achieved for the day. [HKEX CEO: LME warehouses in Hong Kong nearing full capacity] HKEX CEO Bonnie Y. Chan said that the storage capacity of a series of LME-approved warehouses in Hong Kong was nearing saturation. The LME began approving metal warehouses in Hong Kong last year. Speaking at a seminar during LME Asia Week in Hong Kong, Chan said the LME currently had 15 warehouses in Hong Kong, compared with just 4 a year ago. She called this an important milestone in establishing physical market connectivity. LME and Hong Kong Exchanges will explore more collaborative projects, including futures and RMB-denominated products, to build a comprehensive commodities ecosystem in Asia. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.01. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly appeared to be an inflationary shock to the economy. Although the impact on employment and economic growth was not yet evident, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases were intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflation' shock," meaning the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation and forces the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk, Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is just an inflation shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 93.5%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut probability of 6.5%. The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through July was 86.5%, with cumulative probabilities of a 25-basis-point cut at 13.0% and a 50-basis-point cut at 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: On the first day of resumed trading in the Japanese market, the yen broadly stabilized against other G10 currencies and Asian currencies. However, analysts noted that the yen's downside room against the US dollar is likely to be limited due to potential foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities. Analysts at Maybank stated in a foreign exchange research report that the unpredictability of Japanese authorities' actions would limit the upside room for USD/JPY in the short term. Given that three suspected interventions have already occurred after the currency pair breached the 157.00 level, the market is now increasingly wary of pushing the dollar above that level. (Jin10 Data) Data: China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate are scheduled for release today. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.86% and Brent up 0.87%. The market weighed the prospects of a Middle East peace agreement. A decline in US crude oil inventory last week supported oil prices. US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -648,000 barrels, compared to the previous value of -796,000 barrels. US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending May 1 was -2.313 million barrels, versus expectations of -3.291 million barrels and a previous value of -6.234 million barrels. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was -5.224 million barrels, compared to the previous value of -7.121 million barrels. According to federal data released Wednesday, US energy inventories continued to decline rapidly due to supply shocks caused by the Middle East war, highlighting the tightening supply problem as the energy crisis continued to spread. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), refined product inventories, including diesel, plunged by 1.3 million barrels last week to the lowest level since April 2003. These inventories are currently 11% below the five-year seasonal average. Due to refinery shutdowns, diesel prices recently hit record highs in Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan. (CNN) According to a person familiar with the matter, the Trump administration is exploring the use of oil resources beneath US military bases and other Department of Defense sites to replenish the nation's dwindling emergency reserves. The source said no decision has been made on this potential move. This comes as the US government has pledged to explore innovative ways to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was further depleted during the Iran war. (Jin10 Data) According to a foreign media survey, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month as the ongoing Iran war continued to obstruct Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further production declines in Kuwait and Iran. The survey showed that Kuwait saw the largest production drop last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports have fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 7 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE tin continued its strong momentum from the previous day's session, ultimately closing up 5.01%. SHFE nickel fell 2.68%. LME tin led the gains with a remarkable 9.01% increase, LME copper rose 2.22%, and LME zinc gained 1.52%. LME aluminum fell 1.02%, LME nickel dropped 2.22%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.13%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 1.03%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 1.15%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.26%, and rebar gained 0.68%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.92%, and coke dropped 0.64%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.95%, and COMEX silver gained 5.77%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.98%, and SHFE silver gained 2.8%. As of 6:45 AM on May 7, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China] On May 6, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about US President Trump's recent remarks concerning China. In response, Lin Jian stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) People's Bank of China: The weighted average interest rate on newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2026 was 3.06% . (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.49 to 98.02. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly resembles an inflationary shock to the economy. While the impact on employment and economic growth is not yet apparent, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases are intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflationary' shock" — the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation, forcing the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk — Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is simply an inflationary shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." (Jin10 Data APP) Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against instinctively cutting interest rates in response to faster productivity growth, as such a phenomenon can sometimes push up inflation. In prepared remarks released ahead of a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday local time, Goolsbee said the US Fed's response to faster productivity growth "depends in large part on whether the productivity growth happens unexpectedly or is expected to happen in the future." He said in the first scenario, inflation could be suppressed, allowing for interest rate cuts. In the latter scenario, additional investment and spending driven by productivity growth could push up inflation, requiring higher interest rates. Additionally, he emphasized the need to be wary of consumption and investment driven by future growth expectations. "The more intense the hype, the greater the need for rate hikes to prevent overheating," he said. (Jin10 Data APP) St. Louis Fed President Musalem said there is significant uncertainty surrounding the US economic and monetary policy outlook, but he believes that relative to employment risks, inflation risks are currently rising. Musalem said on Wednesday: "Inflation is clearly above our 2% target. We face risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. Based on my assessment, risks are tilting more toward inflation rather than employment." Musalem said the US Fed's benchmark policy rate is currently at a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, or possibly slightly accommodative. He said: "There are very plausible scenarios that require us to hold the current policy rate unchanged for a period of time." However, he also noted that he sees scenarios that could require officials to cut interest rates further, or to raise rates. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 93.5%, with a 6.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 86.5%, with a 13.0% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will be released. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 5.93% and Brent down 7.2%. FXPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in a report that as the US is unwilling to further escalate tensions in the conflict with Iran, the oil market has now priced in a peace deal as the base case scenario. "Once shipping resumes quickly, tankers trapped in the Strait of Hormuz will release supply in a concentrated burst in the short term, pushing down Brent and WTI crude prices." However, he added that since global inventories have already been depleted and repairs to damaged infrastructure in Gulf states still require time, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this year. "The decline in Brent and WTI prices will likely be very rapid but will not last long." (Jin10 Data APP) According to market observer The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 70 minutes before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching consensus on a "14-point" agreement to end the war, crude oil short positions worth approximately $920 million were established. At 3:40 AM ET today (3:40 PM Beijing time), with no major news, the market established nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts. In notional value, this trade was approximately $920 million — an unusually large transaction for the 3:40 AM time slot. 70 minutes later at 4:50 AM ET (4:40 PM Beijing time), Axios reported that the US was "close to" reaching a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran war. By 7:00 AM ET (7:00 PM Beijing time), oil prices had fallen more than 12%, and the aforementioned crude oil short positions had unrealized gains of approximately $125 million. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a foreign media survey, as the Iran conflict continued to hinder Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further declines in Kuwait and Iran production. The survey showed Kuwait had the largest production decline last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports had fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) (Jin10 Data APP) US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was at its lowest since the week of December 6, 2024, and domestic crude oil production was at its lowest since the week of January 30, 2026. (Jin10 Data APP)

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

SMM April 30: The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau meeting proposed to "effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, strive to stabilize the real estate market, and solidly advance urban renewal." On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulation policies. The Guangdong 15th Five-Year Plan outline calls for accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, implementing city-specific policies to increase supply of essential and upgrading housing. Six departments including the Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau optimized and adjusted local real estate policy measures... Industry fundamentals simultaneously recovered at the margin: the latest data from the China Index Academy showed that total bond financing in the real estate sector in March was up 5.7% YoY and up 48.4% MoM, with the financing environment continuing to improve. Meanwhile, new home transactions in Guangzhou rose significantly MoM, leading first-tier cities. Multiple policy dividends, financing improvements, and recovering property market transactions resonated together, jointly driving the real estate development sector higher. As of the market close on April 30, the real estate development sector rose 1.52%. In terms of individual stocks: Jintou Chengkai, Jinrongjie, Wantong Development, Quzhou Development, and Beichen Industrial hit the daily limit, while Zhongzhou Holdings, Greenland Holdings, Sanxiang Impression, Hefei Urban Construction, and Jingtou Development led gains. News [CPC Central Committee Political Bureau Held a Meeting to Analyze and Study the Current Economic Situation and Economic Work] The CPC Central Committee Political Bureau held a meeting on April 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. CPC Central Committee General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the meeting. The meeting noted that since the beginning of this year, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has strengthened overall leadership over economic work, taking a holistic and forward-looking approach. All regions and departments have acted proactively and implemented comprehensive policies. China's economy got off to a strong start, with major indicators exceeding expectations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality. At the same time, there are some difficulties and challenges, and the foundation for sustained and steady economic improvement needs further consolidation. Confidence should be strengthened, and economic work should be pursued with greater intensity and more practical measures. The meeting pointed out the need to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market and solidly advance urban renewal. Local government debt risks should be resolved in an orderly manner, with focus on addressing the issue of overdue payments to enterprises. Reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions should be promoted, and confidence in the capital market should be stabilized and strengthened. [Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau Issued a Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting Local Real Estate-Related Policies] On April 29, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued a notice to further optimize real estate regulation policies. Purchase restrictions: eligible resident families can purchase one additional housing unit in Futian, Nanshan, and Bao'an Xin'an Subdistrict; non-Shenzhen-hukou families with valid residence permits can also purchase one unit in the above areas. Housing provident fund: the maximum family loan amount was raised to 1.3 million yuan, with first-home buyers and multi-child families eligible for up to 70% upward adjustment. The new policy takes effect from April 30. [Guangdong 15th Five-Year Plan Outline: Accelerating the Construction of a New Model for Real Estate Development, Increasing Rigid and Improvement-oriented Housing Supply Based on City-specific Policies] The Outline of Guangdong Province's 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development was officially released, mentioning accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development, improving the housing system featuring multi-entity supply, multi-channel guarantee, and both rental and purchase options, striving to stabilize the real estate market and comprehensively enhancing residential quality. City-specific policies will increase rigid and improvement-oriented housing supply, expand supply of both large and small units, appropriately develop high-quality housing meeting the needs of high-net-worth individuals, and better satisfy diversified improvement-oriented housing demand. [China Index Academy: March Real Estate Bond Financing Total Up 48.4% MoM] Latest data from China Index Academy showed that in Q1 2026, financing support policies for real estate enterprises remained accommodative with more diversified financing instruments. Bond financing scale was flat YoY, with credit bonds and ABS remaining the dominant instruments. In March, total real estate bond financing was up 5.7% YoY and up 48.4% MoM. [Guangzhou New Home Transactions Surge MoM, Leading First-tier Cities] Since the beginning of this year, the Guangzhou real estate market has shown clear signs of recovery. In March, new home volume and prices rose simultaneously, and the "mini spring" momentum continued into April. NBS data showed that Guangzhou new home selling prices were up 0.3% MoM in March, with 7,059 new home online signings citywide, up 241% MoM and up 26.67% YoY. Trading volume and price gains led first-tier cities. Entering April, the Guangzhou market maintained a steady upward trend. According to institutional monitoring, mid-April weekly new home transactions rebounded 5.4% WoW, with project visits and subscriptions in core areas remaining at high levels. By district, Tianhe District, as the core of Guangzhou's main urban area, led the city in transaction activity. In March, Tianhe District new home transactions surged over 500% MoM, ranking first among all 11 districts and becoming the strongest support for this round of Guangzhou's "mini spring." Destocking cycles in core district sub-markets continued to shorten, improvement-oriented demand was concentrated in release, and multiple high-grade projects saw strong sales. (Zhitong Finance) [China Index Academy: National Real Estate Market Still Consolidating at Lows in Q1, Floor Space of New Commercial Buildings Sold Continued to Pull Back YoY] Zhitong Finance APP learned that China Index Academy stated that in Q1 2026, the national real estate market was still consolidating at lows, with the floor space of new commercial buildings sold continuing to pull back YoY. Against this backdrop, quality projects in core cities maintained relatively stable sales performance. According to China Index data, the top 20 projects by sales in key cities in Q1 recorded a combined transaction value exceeding 50 billion yuan, with first-tier city projects occupying 12 spots. CITIC City Development·Xinyue Bay in Nanshan District, Shenzhen topped the list with 6.55 billion yuan in signed contract value, followed by Shenzhen Bay Yunxi and Guangzhou Poly Yuexi Bay in second and third place respectively. [Xinhua Commentary: Stabilization Signals Strengthening, Further Consolidating the Foundation for Real Estate High-Quality Development] The property market's "Golden March, Silver April" is showing initial warmth, with market expectations undergoing positive changes. A series of signals indicate that the real estate market, led by first-tier and hot second-tier cities as "bellwethers," is showing a strengthening trend of stabilization, with industry confidence entering a sustained recovery track. This is not a simple stabilization, but rather the real estate market accumulating momentum to consolidate at lows and recover after undergoing deep adjustment. From adjusting and optimizing housing provident fund policies to the normalization of urban real estate financing coordination mechanisms, from housing trade-in policies to intensified efforts in purchasing existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, the more precise and forceful policy measures since the beginning of this year have consolidated the foundation for real estate high-quality development. The stable and healthy development of the real estate market is related to economic performance and people's well-being. Against the backdrop of continued advancement of new-type urbanization, optimizing and adjusting existing stock and achieving a higher level of "housing for all" is a requirement for sustainable economic and social development. Looking toward the "15th Five-Year Plan" development goals, accelerating transformation with more precise and forceful measures, balancing short-term market stabilization with long-term institutional improvement, is the way to truly drive real estate to achieve high-quality development. [Lujiazui: Residential Sales Contract Value at 9.343 Billion Yuan in 2025, Up 28% YoY] Lujiazui announced that from January to December 2025, the company achieved real estate leasing cash inflows of 3.763 billion yuan, down 10% YoY; equity leasing cash inflows were 3.071 billion yuan, down 10% YoY. Contract sales of residential properties totaled 9.343 billion yuan, up 28% YoY, with equity contract sales of 6.283 billion yuan, up 25% YoY. Cash inflows from residential property sales reached 10.791 billion yuan, up 76% YoY, with equity sales cash inflows of 7.104 billion yuan, up 64% YoY. Cash inflows from office project sales were 641 million yuan, with equity sales cash inflows of 353 million yuan. Newly started GFA was 163,900 m², and completed GFA was 410,200 m². [China Merchants Shekou Secured Two Land Parcels in Shanghai in One Day, with the Xuhui Botanical Garden Plot at a 25% Premium] On April 21, during Shanghai's third land auction of 2026, the plot xh290-09 in the S031201 unit of Xuhui District was acquired by Shanghai Zhaohui Qingya Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. for 3.3 billion yuan after 82 rounds of bidding, at a floor price of approximately 87,000/m² and a premium rate of 25%. Excluding the 3,500 m² of mandatory construction, the available-for-sale floor cost was approximately 96,000/m². The plot attracted 9 bidders, including Shanghai Chengtou, China Merchants Shekou, CNOOC, the "C&D+Xiangyu" consortium, Yuexiu, the "Poly+West Bund" consortium, CR Land, Greentown, and the "Jinmao+Qingneng" consortium. [Six Departments Including Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau Optimized and Adjusted Local Real Estate Policy Measures] Six departments including Zhuhai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting local real estate policy measures. The notice proposed optimizing housing provident fund loan policies. First, raising the maximum housing provident fund loan limits. For those eligible for provident fund loans, the maximum personal housing loan limits for single and dual-contributor employee families were adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan and from 1.3 million yuan to 1.5 million yuan, respectively. Second, expanding the scope of home purchase support for multi-child families. When multi-child families purchase a second self-use residence and apply for provident fund loans, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. Third, raising the loan amount increase ratio for purchasing green buildings. When contributing employees purchase commercial housing that meets the national two-star green building standard or commercial housing certified as prefabricated construction projects, the loan amount may be increased by 20% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit; for commercial housing meeting the national three-star green building standard, the loan amount may be increased by 30% above the eligible loan amount, but shall not exceed the city's maximum provident fund loan limit. [Foshan Launched Trade-in Program for Commercial Housing!First batch involving 22 housing projects] Recently, the "Notice on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing 'Trade-in' Program by Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau" was officially released. This is not a simple encouragement document, but a systematic solution to unblock replacement bottlenecks through model innovation and a policy package. It promotes the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to "a virtuous cycle between existing and incremental housing," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in introducing multiple real estate enterprises to participate jointly: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities; Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, sets a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. [China Real Estate News: Make good and flexible use of policies to strengthen efforts in stabilizing the property market] China Real Estate News published a commentary article. In this opening year, the real estate market achieved encouraging results in its upward and stable trajectory. In terms of transaction data, from Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, to Nanjing, Hangzhou, Changchun, Yinchuan, and Dalian, and further to Yichang, Ningbo, and Yantai across all city tiers, the property market at the start of this year exuded signs of recovery. Both new and second-hand housing markets showed clear momentum of activity, with cities like Shanghai and Beijing even showing obvious transaction expansion signals. In March, Shanghai's second-hand housing online signed transactions reached 31,215 units, the highest in nearly five years; Beijing's new commercial housing transactions exceeded 3,600 units, more than tripling from February. From the national perspective, the property market also exhibited increasingly strong structural recovery characteristics. Real estate stable development has always been closely linked to financial and tax policy. Every subtle policy optimization and empowerment adds "lubricant" at critical junctures of market operation, reducing the "friction coefficient." Currently, the market has shown a positive "Golden March, Silver April" trend, which is also a critical period for efforts to stabilize the real estate market. Local governments should strive to act where policies can make a difference and intensify efforts where action is warranted. This approach is ultimately anchored in the two short-term and long-term goals of stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development of real estate, continuously enhancing the certainty and sustainability of China's real estate stability and high-quality development. [Jiangsu Taizhou: Encouraging State-Owned Enterprises and Real Estate Development Enterprises to Launch Shared-Ownership Commercial Housing for Sale to Young People, New Urban Residents and Other Groups] The Notice on Implementing Several Measures to Stabilise the Real Estate Market, jointly issued by the Taizhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau and the Municipal Finance Bureau, officially took effect on the 17th. It proposed increasing housing purchase support for "young and new resident groups," implementing loan interest subsidies for "young talents." For young talents who use housing provident fund and commercial loans to purchase their first new commercial housing in the urban area, a 2% fiscal interest subsidy on the loan amount will be provided annually for a period of 2 years. Meanwhile, it supports shared-ownership commercial housing pilot programmes, encouraging state-owned enterprises and real estate development enterprises to launch shared-ownership commercial housing for sale to young people, new urban residents and other groups. [NDRC: Focusing on Expanding Effective Domestic Demand, to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand Strategy] On 17 April, the State Council Information Office held a thematic press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan Period," introducing the high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a global economic stabiliser, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts will focus on five areas. First, implementing a macro policy package, preparing a batch of comprehensive policy measures in advance and rolling them out in a timely manner as needed; second, focusing on expanding effective domestic demand, formulating the 2026–2030 implementation plan for expanding domestic demand strategy, and promoting the early commencement of qualified major projects; third, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, accelerating the development of emerging industries, deeply implementing the AI+ initiative, fostering new forms of intelligent economy, thoroughly implementing the spirit of the national services industry conference, and advancing the mechanism for expanding the services sector; fourth, intensifying efforts to stabilise employment and boost incomes, implementing the action plan for stabilising jobs, expanding capacity and improving quality, formulating and implementing income growth plans for urban and rural residents, strengthening inclusive and basic livelihood programmes, and enhancing social security for vulnerable groups; fifth, consolidating the foundation for safe development, making every effort to ensure supply and stabilise prices of energy resources, grain and other important livelihood commodities, accelerating the construction of a new-type energy system, and working to stabilise the real estate market. [National New Commercial Housing Sales Reached Approximately 1.73 Trillion Yuan in Q1, with the "Little Spring" Rally Driving Month-on-Month Increases in Both Volume and Price in March] On 16 April, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the basic situation of the national real estate market for January–March 2026. Data showed that in Q1, the decline in national commercial housing sales narrowed significantly compared to the first two months. Driven by the "mini spring boom," both volume and price rose in March alone. However, supply-side indicators such as development investment and new construction starts remained in a downward range, with the overall market still consolidating at lows and recovering. Wang Xiaoqiang, chief analyst at Linping Residential Big Data Research Institute, noted that in terms of monthly performance, national new commercial housing saw both volume and price rise in March, with sales area and sales revenue up 10.1% and 10.9% YoY respectively, and an average selling price of 8,870 yuan/m², up 0.7% MoM. Driven by the traditional spring peak season, trading volume in March rebounded significantly from February. However, based on cumulative data, Q1 national new housing transactions remained weaker than the same period last year, with the market still in a consolidation phase. [Zhengzhou Introduces 8 New Housing Policies] On April 10, the Zhengzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market." 1. Supporting young people in home purchases. Financial institutions are encouraged to offer specialized financial products and services to young people under 35 who come to Zhengzhou for employment or entrepreneurship, better meeting their diversified housing credit needs. 2. Strengthening home purchase support for multi-child families. Multi-child families that already own one home locally may apply for housing provident fund loans with a maximum loan amount 20% higher than the family's first-home loan cap when purchasing another commercial residence. 3. Implementing down payment ratios for commercial property loans. Financial institutions are guided to implement the policy of a minimum down payment ratio of no less than 30% for commercial property purchase loans. 4. Clarifying standards for determining the number of homes owned. When purchasing a new home within the city, only the buyer's housing status in the administrative district where the intended property is located will be checked; those with no housing will be recognized as first-home buyers. 5. Optimizing provident fund loan application conditions. Before December 31, 2026, when applicants meet other existing loan conditions and have no outstanding provident fund loan balance, they may apply for housing provident fund loans under first-time loan policies when purchasing upgrade housing. 6. Increasing affordable rental housing supply. Through multiple channels including acquisition, new construction, and conversion, supply will be effectively increased, with 10,000 units allocated in 2026; the application and allocation process will be optimized to improve efficiency and fairness, leveraging housing's role in attracting and retaining talent. 7. Improving supporting public services. Families that have purchased commercial housing and actually moved in may enjoy basic public services such as school district enrollment for school-age children by presenting their online-registered commercial housing sales contracts. 8. Implementing a "one property, one code" system for second-hand housing. Information disclosure in the second-hand housing market will be strengthened, with enhanced property verification and code assignment. Using trading platforms such as "Zheng Hao Fang" and "Zheng Fang Trading Network" to complete ownership verification and generate a unique property verification code, achieving "one property, one code" for second-hand housing. [CRIC Real Estate Research: The top 20 real estate enterprises by new agency construction scale in Q1 saw new contracted construction area up 11% YoY] According to Zhitong Finance, CRIC Real Estate Research reported that in Q1 2026, the top 20 real estate enterprises by new agency construction scale achieved new contracted construction area of 50.437 million m², up 11% YoY. Compared with the 16% growth rate of the top 20 enterprises in 2025, this represented a slowdown of 5 percentage points; however, it was 5 percentage points higher than the growth rate in Q1 2025. Overall, competition in agency construction business expansion remained intense, with deep differentiation emerging among enterprises. [Shanghai Second-hand Home Monthly Transactions Returned to 30,000 Units for the First Time in 5 Years! Multiple New Home Projects Plan to Gradually Reduce Discounts] For the first time in 5 years, Shanghai's monthly second-hand home transactions returned to the 30,000-unit threshold, with the "Golden March" market rally delivering strongly. According to data from the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center's official website "Online Real Estate," in March, cumulative online signings of second-hand homes in Shanghai reached 31,215 units, hitting the highest level in nearly 5 years since March 2021. Li Gen, head of Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, stated that the "mini spring rally" in Shanghai's second-hand housing market in March was robust, with transaction data confirming a strong return of market confidence. Citywide second-hand home trading volume not only grew 6% YoY from March last year but also surged 37% from January this year. The heated second-hand housing market was also gradually transmitting to the new home market. Shanghai Centaline Property data showed that in March, the transaction area of newly built commercial residential properties in Shanghai reached 563,000 m², surging 251.6% MoM, an unprecedented rebound. Notably, as the market recovered, signals of narrowing discounts and stabilizing prices in the new home market began to emerge. Among them, Poly Duhui Hexu had previously announced that transaction prices for townhouse units on sale would be raised by 0.5% across the board starting March 9; starting March 23, discounts were further tightened. In addition, Jinhai Yunshu, Huafa Haishang Duhui, Yijiang Zhendi and other projects also plan to gradually reduce discounts starting April. [China Index Academy: Top 100 Enterprises' Total Land Acquisition Amounted to 146.52 Billion Yuan in January–March] The latest "Top 100 National Real Estate Enterprises by Land Acquisition in January–March 2026" ranking released by China Index Academy showed that in January–March 2026, the total land acquisition amount of the top 100 enterprises was 146.52 billion yuan, down 49.4% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points MoM. After the Chinese New Year holiday, land supply and transactions recovered across various regions. Hot topic land parcels were offered in cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, and developers' land acquisition intensity rebounded MoM, with the decline in land acquisition value narrowing. In terms of characteristics, premium land parcels in core cities attracted intense competition, with state-owned enterprises remaining the dominant buyers. Voices from Various Parties Rajiv Batra, a strategist at JPMorgan in Singapore, said Hong Kong's property recovery is spreading to major mainland cities, while the lagged wealth effect from China's stock market rebound is helping revive housing demand. "After five years of correction, early signs of recovery have emerged in China's real estate sector in March, potentially approaching a turning point," Batra said. "We are relatively optimistic that China will outperform other emerging markets." Huatai Securities noted in a research report that March real estate data showed marginal improvement in both sales volume and prices, with home prices entering a phase of positive second-order derivative, especially as first-tier cities saw MoM price rebounds, signaling gradual restoration of market confidence. Huatai Securities believes that although the investment side is still hitting bottom, the increasing spontaneity of market recovery has enhanced the sustainability of price improvement and is also expected to bring opportunities for positioning in property stocks. Key recommendations: enterprises with lighter historical burdens or healthier cash flows, preparing for a new round of expansion; enterprises with low valuations and sufficient impairment provisions; enterprises with exposure in regions where the first-order derivative has turned positive; enterprises in existing property transactions and the back-end of the real estate industry chain. CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that in 2025, high-quality development has become the core theme for the property management and commercial management industry. Enterprises have refocused on their core property management service business. As cost reduction and efficiency gains materialize and impairment pressures are gradually released, overall corporate performance has shown positive changes. Enterprise performance has diverged, with some quality property and commercial management companies achieving sustained earnings growth. Against the backdrop of expanding domestic demand, the overall development of the real estate industry continues to be supported by policies. The firm remains optimistic about property management and operational services, recommending leading transaction intermediaries, construction agency service providers, and property enterprises with high service quality and operational efficiency. China Post Securities stated: Overall, the real estate industry is at a critical period of consolidating at lows, structural differentiation, and business model reshaping. The cumulative effect of policies is beginning to emerge, and the worst phase of the market may have passed, but industry recovery will still exhibit structural and gradual characteristics. April to May is a window for trend verification. If a stronger-than-usual off-season with price stabilization materializes, the expectation gap between the "policy bottom" and "earnings bottom" is expected to converge rapidly, improving the risk-reward of positioning for valuation recovery. Conversely, if price pressures intensify, allocation should lean more toward defensive plays and cash flow certainty, with secondary market activity remaining a leading signal. China Chengxin International analyzed in a research report: At the national level, policy guidance in housing and urban construction continues to be strengthened, using "quality housing" construction as the lever to systematically enhance residential quality across standards, design, construction, and operation & maintenance, promoting developers to focus on product quality upgrades. The concurrent urban renewal efforts, leveraging the promotion of mature experience and targeted central fiscal support, have established a standardized and efficient implementation framework, effectively resolving implementation challenges and forming a new development paradigm where housing quality improvement and urban renewal work in synergy. BOC International Securities stated that the property market has seen a "mini spring rally" over the past two months, but its sustainability remains to be observed, with subsequent trends depending on inventory destocking progress and whether prices stabilize. The continuation of the phased recovery also requires stronger policy support. Attention should be paid to the sequence of "late-April Politburo meeting — May ministerial detailed rules — local execution." We expect that the positive stance is likely to continue under the existing "stabilizing real estate" framework, with greater emphasis on implementation and policy coordination. In Q2, attention can be given to high-frequency fundamentals and the pace of local policy implementation, where policy-driven trading opportunities exist. Additionally, a "fundamental inflection point" may emerge around Q4, potentially reflected in a narrowing decline in second-hand housing prices. From an investment perspective, most property developers made relatively large impairment provisions in 2025, and may consolidate at lows in 2026, meaning sector profit margins and earnings could rebound in 2027, thereby driving a reassessment of 27E valuations by the market in Q4 this year. Beyond that, some commercial real estate companies with investment properties have already proactively positioned themselves in new business formats, new models, and new scenarios, making them better equipped to seize opportunities in the new consumption era.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.15%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.43%, SHFE lead rose 0.18%. SHFE zinc fell 0.4%. SHFE tin fell 0.52%. SHFE nickel rose 1.7%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.8%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.06%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.59%, coke fell 0.44%. Overnight overseas market metals, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 1.45%. LME aluminum fell 0.95%, LME lead fell 0.61%. LME zinc fell 1.05%. LME tin fell 0.68%. LME nickel rose 1.52%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.79%, COMEX silver fell 2.59%. Overnight SHFE gold fell 1.31%, SHFE silver fell 2.35%. As of 7:07 AM on April 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [China to Implement Zero Tariffs on All African Countries with Diplomatic Relations Starting May 1, 2026] The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs would be implemented in the form of preferential tax rates for 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China but are not classified as least developed countries. For tariff-quota products, only the in-quota tariff rates would be reduced to zero, while out-of-quota tariff rates would remain unchanged. During the 2-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of common development economic partnership agreements with relevant African countries. [MIIT: Next Step Will Be to Launch "AI + Software" Special Action] Ke Jixin, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at a State Council routine policy briefing on the 28th that MIIT will next promote the extension of producer services toward specialization and the high-end of the value chain, and accelerate innovation and development in the software and information technology services industry. In particular, regarding AI empowerment of the information services industry, MIIT will launch an "AI + Software" special action, accelerate R&D and application of intelligent programming, and foster new business models such as Model-as-a-Service and Agent-as-a-Service. MIIT will further strengthen open-source ecosystem development and promote intelligent upgrades of basic software and industrial software. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.14%, closing at 98.63. This week is most likely the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Powell, and rates are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus was on the policy statement wording and Powell's characterization of war-induced energy inflation at the press conference. (Wall Street Jianzhi) Former US Fed Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed will say the labour market is roughly in a stable state right now. On the inflation mandate, there is still a lot of work to do (as inflation remains elevated at 3%)." He expected the Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how this all plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved employment market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin Shi Data) John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this week's Fed meeting would provide clues as to which officials lean toward reacting to energy-related inflation and which view it as transitory. He said the meeting's mild tone, with no dot plot and most likely no policy action, "paves the way for a heated June," when Kevin Warsh will likely chair the meeting. Tyner noted that June will bring a new dot plot and more time to assess the Middle East situation and its impact on the economy and inflation. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose across the board in March, a worrying signal for the ECB as it assesses the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. According to the ECB's monthly consumer survey released Tuesday, prices over the next 12 months were expected to rise 4%, up from 2.5% in February. Three-year inflation expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% peak reached during the last price surge in October 2022. Five-year inflation expectations edged up from 2.3% to 2.4%, drifting further from the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target. The ECB is closely monitoring whether elevated energy costs will prompt workers to demand pay raises and lead enterprises to raise selling prices. Second-round inflation effects beyond commodities such as gasoline could trigger rate hikes, although Thursday's policy meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, Switzerland's April ZEW Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, Germany's preliminary April CPI MoM, US March annualized total housing starts, US March durable goods orders MoM, US March total building permits, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29. Also noteworthy: the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; the US Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Waller's nomination as Fed Chairman, and if passed, the full Senate will hold a confirmation vote; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their rally, with WTI up 3.37% and Brent up 2.74%. Trump stated on social media that Iran had requested the US to lift its naval blockade on the critical shipping route and reopen it as soon as possible. Reports indicated that Pakistani mediators expected Tehran to submit a revised proposal within days. However, Trump subsequently expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest peace proposal, citing that it would delay nuclear negotiations, significantly dampening market expectations for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Iran claimed it could "outlast Trump," suggesting the situation could fall into a prolonged stalemate. Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, and would gradually increase oil production. The announcement briefly caused oil prices to pull back before quickly recovering. (Wall Street Insights) On April 28 local time, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told media on April 28 that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time primarily considering factors such as current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and believed the decision would have limited impact on the global oil market. Al Mazrouei told CNN reporters that the UAE's announcement came at the "right time" and would not significantly affect the oil market or prices, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, including for the UAE. This decision would help ease pressure on prices. (Jin10 Data) Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that in the short to medium term, given that global inventory has been depleted and reserves need to be rebuilt, the market should be able to absorb the increased production from the UAE. However, over time, this exit raised a broader strategic question: if other producing countries began to prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage an orderly market through coordinated supply adjustments could face increasing scrutiny. HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ would have a relatively small short-term impact on the oil market, but over time could undermine the organization's supply discipline and price management capability. HSBC expected little change in global oil supply in the near term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region had remained restricted since the end of February. During the period of constrained shipping routes, the UAE had limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline had a daily transport capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and was most likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane resumed navigation, the UAE would no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually increase production. The bank estimated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) daily production is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while the OPEC+ quota during May 2026 was approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said any supply increments are expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated in an exclusive interview on Friday, outlining his policy blueprint for artificial intelligence, energy, taxation, and financial regulation, and indicated that he did not rule out the possibility of serving as Fed Chairman in the future.Bessent said he did not rule out the possibility of serving as Fed Chairman in the future, but explicitly refused to run for any public office. He explained that the Fed Chairman does not need to participate in elections, can shape the direction of the economy, and that the US Fed itself is an important institution.

SMM April 21 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper dropped 0.64%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.45%. SHFE lead rose 0.33%, SHFE zinc fell 0.76%. SHFE tin dropped 0.31%, SHFE nickel fell 0.69%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.49%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2.38%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 3.86%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 2.19%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 0.64%, rebar rose 0.76%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.87%, stainless steel fell 0.53%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.49%, the most-traded coke contract rose 1.96%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum fell 0.89%, LME lead fell 0.1%, LME zinc fell 0.78%. LME tin dropped 0.68%. LME nickel fell 0.6%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold fell 1.32%, COMEX silver dropped 0.21%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.76%, the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 2.7%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.18%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.78%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract edged down 0.01%, closing at 2,114.1 points. As of 11:40 on April 21, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 290 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,420 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,315 yuan/mt, down 460 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory finally ended its 24-day consecutive decline...... Macro Front China: [Good Start! China's Raw Material Industry Value-Added Output Up 4.6% YoY in Q1] According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office this morning, China's raw material industry achieved a good start in Q1. Data showed that in Q1, the value-added output of the raw material industry was up 4.6% YoY. Specifically, the petrochemical and chemical industry's value added was up 7.4% YoY, and the non-ferrous metals industry's value added was up 2.6% YoY. Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated that in Q1, the cement industry reduced and retired nearly 30 million mt of capacity through volume replacement. Meanwhile, the green building materials industry saw steady revenue growth, with the number of certified green building material products increasing 5% compared to the end of 2025. Innovation achievements in the raw material sector also accelerated, as China's independently developed T1200-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber industrial-grade product was launched globally for the first time, and is expected to be extensively applied in strategic emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Fully Activate Innovation Engines, Accelerate Frontier Material Deployment and Key Material Breakthroughs] Zhang Yunming, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at the State Council Information Office press conference that in Q1, detailed implementation of the new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries was carried out, with focused efforts to promote capacity structure optimization and upgrading. The raw materials industry achieved a good start, with more vigorous transformation and a stronger industrial foundation. Going forward, MIIT will thoroughly implement the deployments outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan, adhere to the combination of "consolidating fundamentals" and "fostering new growth," and strengthen overall planning and policy supply. On one hand, efforts will focus on solidifying the foundation for traditional industry upgrading, promoting optimization of existing capacity and green and safe transformation; on the other hand, innovation engines will be fully activated to accelerate frontier material deployment and key material breakthroughs, providing more solid and reliable material support for developing new quality productive forces and advancing new-type industrialization. (Jin10 Data) [MIIT: Industrial Robot Production Up 33.2% YoY in Q1, Drones, AI Glasses and Other Products Increasingly Diversified] This morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the industrial and information technology development in Q1 2026. In Q1, new technologies such as artificial intelligence accelerated their application in the electronics and consumer goods industries. End-use products such as drones and AI glasses became increasingly diversified, with industrial robot and integrated circuit production up 33.2% and 24.3% YoY, respectively. (CCTV News) [PBOC Achieved Net Injection of 4 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations Today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 4 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.11% at 98.16. The US Congress was set to hold the first confirmation hearing for Fed Chairman nominee Warsh on Tuesday local time. Warsh was to pledge to lawmakers his strict independence on interest rate matters. According to opening remarks obtained in advance by Politico, Warsh stated that interest rate decisions must be strictly independent of political considerations, and that monetary policy should not be used as a tool for short-term political objectives. He also emphasized that the US Fed's credibility stems from institutional constraints and policy discipline. Warsh said the central bank should listen to diverse opinions, and that politicians expressing views on interest rates does not pose a real threat. On the contrary, it is the US Fed's own discipline and rigor that sustains its independent status. He stressed that price stability is the US Fed's talisman and pledged to assume full responsibility for it, "making no excuses and passing no blame." Warsh also warned against the post-crisis expansion of the US Fed's functional boundaries, arguing that it should not extend its reach into fiscal or social policy areas where it lacks statutory authority. The US Senate Banking Committee was to hold a confirmation hearing for Warsh at 10 PM Beijing time on April 21. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh believes that upcoming productivity growth may give the US Fed room to lower interest rates, provided that higher productivity enables low-inflation economic growth. However, economist Ed Yardeni, who also expects the economy to benefit from technological advances this decade, disagrees that such an outcome would justify lowering interest rates. Yardeni wrote: "While we share Warsh's optimism on productivity, we have fundamentally different views on what this outcome means for monetary policy." Yardeni argues that faster growth will raise the natural rate of interest, or R*, the rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. He wrote: "If the US Fed lowers the federal funds rate below R*, the risk is that it fuels financial speculation and instability." (Jin Shi Data) On other currencies: The exact timing of the Bank of Japan's next rate hike remains uncertain, with significant uncertainty. However, Goldman Sachs analyst Akira Otani said a rate hike in July remains possible. The economist wrote in a research note: "By then, all the data needed to assess the impact of high oil prices on the economy, wages, and prices will be available." The Bank of Japan is likely to keep rates unchanged this month but may lower its economic growth expectations and raise its FY2026 inflation forecast to reflect heightened tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Otani added that the Bank of Japan may consider the uncertainty surrounding this outlook to be high. (Jinshi Data) Data: Today's scheduled releases include US March retail sales MoM, US February business inventories MoM, US March pending home sales index MoM, Germany April ZEW economic sentiment index, UK February three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK March unemployment rate, UK March claimant count, Switzerland March trade balance, and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index. In addition, attention should be paid to the US Senate Banking Committee hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, and ECB President Lagarde's keynote speech at the 75th anniversary reception of the Association of German Banks. Furthermore, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open in China. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.58%. Signs of resumed negotiations between Iran and the US boosted market sentiment, while international oil prices slid further on expectations of easing tensions. (Wallstreetcn) Wallstreetcn noted that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approved the dispatch of a negotiating delegation to Islamabad on the night of April 20. According to Xinhua, citing the US Axios website, US Vice President Vance was expected to depart for the Pakistani capital on the morning of April 21 Eastern Time, with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner also heading to join the negotiations. (Wallstreetcn) The market is still waiting to see whether some form of consultation will take place in Islamabad. Investors generally expect that the likelihood of reaching some preliminary agreement is higher than that of a comprehensive deal. Currently, the market is mainly reacting to a sentiment shift from optimism to concern. However, it is widely believed that the most severe phase of the crisis and the accompanying energy supply disruptions may have passed. (Jinshi Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, April 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market rose nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.14%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.67%. SHFE lead fell 0.39%, and SHFE zinc rose 0.68%. SHFE tin rose 0.34%, and SHFE nickel rose 2.05%. In addition, the continuous contract for casting aluminum futures edged up slightly, and the alumina continuous contract rose 0.68%. The lithium carbonate continuous contract rose 1.84%. The silicon metal continuous contract rose 0.71%. The polysilicon continuous contract fell 0.78%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.06%, rebar rose 0.45%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.24%, and stainless steel rose 2.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.45%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.62%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.09%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead rose 0.51%, and LME zinc rose 0.25%. LME tin fell 0.31%. LME nickel rose 1.61%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, and COMEX silver rose 0.37%. Domestic precious metals: the SHFE gold continuous contract fell 0.38%, and the SHFE silver continuous contract fell 0.91%. In addition, as of the midday close, the platinum continuous contract fell 1.94%, and the palladium continuous contract fell 1.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 4.85%, closing at 2,095 points. As of 11:40 on April 17, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,040 yuan/mt, down 505 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,455 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front China: [NDRC: This Year Will Focus on Launching a Series of Actions to Expand Effective Investment in Areas Such as "AI+" Infrastructure] The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the morning of April 17 under the series theme of "Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan." Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated that this year the focus will be on areas such as "AI+" infrastructure, urban renewal, the national water network, and new-type energy systems, launching a series of actions to expand effective investment and promote the optimization of supply structure and the expansion of market demand. In terms of institutional and mechanism innovation, we will comprehensively carry out "soft construction" work in central government investment projects to promote the formation of long-term mechanisms for project construction, implementation, operation, and maintenance. At the same time, we will leverage the role of the national venture capital guidance fund to guide and drive social capital in supporting technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. Wang Changlin stated that recently, in response to the impact of changes in the international situation on China's oil and gas imports, the government has adopted comprehensive measures to effectively ensure sufficient domestic oil product supply and stable market operations, fully demonstrating the achievements of China's new-type energy system construction. Going forward, efforts will be made to accelerate the high-quality development of non-fossil energy, coordinate centralized and distributed clean energy development, and make every effort to increase the scale of non-fossil energy power production and consumption. Through the above efforts, it is expected that by 2030, the supply scale of non-fossil energy will increase significantly compared to 2025, and by 2035, it will double compared to 2025. [NDRC: Efforts to Expand Effective Domestic Demand, with a Plan to Formulate the 2026–2030 Implementation Plan for the Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand] The State Council Information Office held a press conference in the series of "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan," introducing the relevant situation of promoting high-quality economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the NDRC, stated that since the beginning of this year, the economy has shown positive changes, with notable improvements on both the supply and demand sides, better playing the role of a stabilizer for the global economy, and performing better than the expectations of many institutions and experts in and outside China. Going forward, efforts should focus on five key areas of work. [Pan Gongsheng: Implementing a Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy and Measures to Boost Consumption] Pan Gongsheng stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will adhere to a domestic demand-driven approach, implement policy measures to boost consumption, vigorously develop the service sector, closely integrate investment in physical assets with investment in human capital, promote productivity growth, accelerate green transformation and sustainable development, unswervingly advance high-level opening-up, and drive high-quality development. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality financial services, and contribute China's strength to global economic growth. (People's Bank of China) [MIIT and Four Other Departments Jointly Issue the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition)] MIIT and four other departments jointly issued the Guidelines for Green Design of Industrial Products (2026 Edition). The Guidelines adapt to new changes and requirements in the green and low-carbon development landscape in and outside China, build consensus on green design across industries, and specify 11 key directions, namely long-life design, non-toxic design, lightweight design, energy-saving design, water-saving design, material-saving design, noise reduction design, space-saving design, easy-to-recycle-and-regenerate design, reusable design, and zero-carbon design. TheThe Guidelines further closely integrate 11 green design priority areas with practical industry applications, using 15 key industries as typical examples to develop 126 detailed solutions, guiding product R&D personnel in practicing green design concepts and methods. (MIIT WeChat) [PBOC reverse repo operations achieve net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 1.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 3.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured this week, a net withdrawal of 500 million yuan was achieved for the week. (Jin10 Data) On the US dollar front: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.04% to 98.24. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson said in a research note that, based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may edge up in the short term. On Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "mildly bullish" pattern, and the two-day relative strength index was in extremely oversold territory. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that bulls need to test — or a level that bears need to watch for signs of reversal to reopen a broader bearish trend. Data shows the US dollar index is currently holding near the 98.249 level. (Jin10 Data) On the data front, US initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating that labour market conditions remained stable, even as employers remained cautious about hiring new workers as the Middle East conflict cast a shadow over the economy. The latest data showed US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 fell by 11,000 to 207,000, below market expectations of 215,000. Initial jobless claims this year have remained within the range of 201,000 to 230,000. While layoffs remain low, the oil price shock from a potential US-Israeli war against Iran may have hindered hiring. Economists said the labour market was already in a state of stagnation before the war broke out, attributable to the uncertainty brought by Trump's sweeping import tariffs and mass deportations. Economists said the Middle East conflict is just another layer of uncertainty facing enterprises. (Jin10 Data) US Fed Governor Miran said that, given the inflation situation that existed before the Middle East conflict, he may again lower his expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Miran said: "If I were to write my dot on the dot plot now, I would lean toward 3 interest rate cuts, possibly 4. I haven't decided yet."In March, Miran expected four 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, but he noted that the pace of rate cuts could slow down if price trends became "less favorable." According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed through June was 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 0.5%. (Jin Shi Data) Data: The eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account and eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance data are to be released today. Also worth watching: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly is scheduled to deliver a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both markets declined, with WTI crude down 1.25% and Brent crude down 1.02%. US President Trump, speaking to the media on the White House South Lawn on the 16th, said the US might hold another round of face-to-face negotiations with Iran this weekend, adding that he would consider heading to Pakistan to sign the deal if a peace agreement were reached between the US and Iran. Trump said he hoped to reach a permanent ceasefire peace agreement before the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran expires, without having to extend it. (Xinhua News Agency) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►