On May 1, 2026, the U.S. announced it would hike tariffs on EU-made cars and trucks to 25% this week, citing the EU’s failure to uphold the August 2025 trade agreement. The move is widely seen as a retaliation against the EU's proposed 50% MFN tariffs on steel imports. Amidst this escalating friction, major European stainless steel producers are capitalizing on the protectionist wave, projecting a doubling of earnings by 2028. This outlook reflects a strategic bet on surging regional prices and structural supply shortages as EU trade defense measures and CBAM reshape the industrial landscape.

Starting July 1, 2026, the UK will tighten its steel import controls, slashing tariff-free quota volumes by approximately 60%. Under the new regime, imports exceeding product-specific quotas will be subject to a steep 50% tariff. Notably, stainless steel long products will be brought back under quota restrictions for the first time since Brexit, reflecting a significant pivot in the UK government’s broader Steel Strategy. By extending protections to domestically manufacturable products, these measures are expected to cause substantial disruption to the UK’s stainless steel long products supply chain and pricing structure.

[Trump Raises Tariffs on EU Cars Exported to US to 25%] Recently, Trump announced on social media: "Since the EU has not complied with the trade agreement fully reached between both sides, starting next week, I will raise tariffs on EU passenger cars and trucks exported to the US, with the rate increasing to 25%." However, Trump noted that the tariffs would not apply to cars produced in factories on US soil.

Starting from the new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a correction phase for over three months, characterized so far by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently by another downward wave since mid-April.

SMM News, May 6: According to SMM data, the average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry in April 2026 rose by 1.5% month-on-month and fell by 0.6% year-on-year, mainly due to a mild increase in prices of raw and auxiliary materials during the period. In April, the supply gap of primary aluminum overseas pushed up LME aluminum prices. However, high domestic inventory put strong downward pressure on aluminum price upside. The monthly average price of SMM A00 spot aluminum (March 26 - April 25) edged up only 1.0% month-on-month. The profit margin of primary aluminum narrowed slightly by RMB 12 per ton to RMB 8,303 per ton, with the average profit surging 125.1% year-on-year. Calculated based on the monthly average price, 100% of the operational primary aluminum capacity in the domestic market remained profitable in April. Breakdown of Cost Components Alumina price dipped intra-month but monthly average climbed month-on-month SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index stood at RMB 2,736 per ton in the statistical period of March 26 to April 25, up 1.9% month-on-month. The overall operational alumina capacity stayed stable during the month, and prices bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by market rumors over the bauxite quota policy in Guinea, bullish market sentiment picked up moderately. Nevertheless, the relatively high price at the start of the month lifted the overall monthly average. Entering May, with newly commissioned capacity ramping up steadily, alumina output is expected to increase. Meanwhile, continuous inflows of imported alumina into the domestic market will further ease spot alumina supply. Given the pending clarification of Guinea’s bauxite policy, supply tightening may trigger a minor price rebound. Alumina raw material costs are expected to remain in a consolidating trend in April. Rising costs drive up prices of auxiliary materials Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices in April. Higher cost levels kept petroleum coke prices on an upward track, underpinning higher prebaked anode prices. Aluminum fluoride prices also moved higher in April amid rising raw material costs. Auxiliary material prices will maintain an upward trend in May, driving a further rise in the auxiliary material cost of primary aluminum and lifting the overall cost center slightly. Power prices stabilize, hydropower costs expected to drop entering wet season Power prices remained generally steady in April. As the market gradually transitions from the normal water period to the wet season starting in May, hydropower tariffs in some regions are projected to edge down, leading to a mild decline in the power cost of primary aluminum production. Overall, the weighted average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry edged higher in April 2026. The primary aluminum cost is expected to keep rising moderately month-on-month in May, with the average level projected at around RMB 16,200 - 16,600 per ton.

The Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM) has announced plans to introduce a grid fee for large-scale electricity producers, including solar power plants. The tariff is expected to take effect no earlier than January 2032, requiring producers to contribute to grid maintenance and expansion costs to promote more efficient network utilization. ACM stated that the fee will be phased in gradually and will be closely aligned with the tariff structure in Germany, the Dutch energy market’s largest trading partner.

[SMM Platinum & Palladium Weekly Review] This week (April 27 – April 30), the most-traded PT2606 futures contract on China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened at 504 yuan/gram and closed at 489.55 yuan/gram, down 13.35 yuan/gram (2.65%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 511.45 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 480.65 yuan/gram; the most-traded PD2606 futures contract opened at 365 yuan/gram and closed at 364.65 yuan/gram, up 2.9 yuan/gram (0.79%) from last week's settlement price, with the highest price at 368.2 yuan/gram and the lowest price at 350.45 yuan/gram. In terms of futures trading: the most-traded PT2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,824 lots with a total turnover of 9.305 billion yuan and open interest of 15,008 lots, down 512 lots WoW. The most-traded PD2606 contract recorded a total weekly trading volume of 11,512 lots with a total turnover of 4.128 billion yuan and open interest of 7,526 lots, down 317 lots WoW. US-Iran conflict: Geopolitical concerns remained unresolved. On April 28, Iran demanded transit fees from passing vessels. On April 29, the US prohibited US individuals or entities from paying Hormuz transit fees to Iran, and non-US individuals or entities paying Hormuz security transit fees to Iran would also face significant sanctions risks. On April 30, Trump reiterated that Iran abandoning nuclear weapons was the bottom line and said negotiations with Iran were being conducted by phone. US monetary policy: The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged as expected, but divisions intensified, with one member advocating an interest rate cut and three opposing the release of dovish signals. Middle East tensions and energy price fluctuations further amplified uncertainty over the economic outlook. Powell announced that after stepping down as chair, he would remain at the US Fed as a governor with his term extending into early 2028, breaking the decades-long convention of outgoing chairs departing when their successors took office. Powell stated that the Trump administration's legal actions were threatening the US Fed's ability to set monetary policy free from political interference and undermining the institution's stability. Trade and tariffs: After the reciprocal tariffs were overturned, Trump continued to push high tariffs through Executive Orders 122, 232, and 301; the US Department of Commerce and USITC's final antidumping and countervailing duty determinations on Russian palladium could lead to tariff raises, with attention on US palladium regional premiums. On the events front, continued focus should be on Middle East geopolitical developments and US Fed officials' speeches. Attention should also be paid to palladium trial results in the fiberglass sector.

During the 2026 Labour Day holiday (May 1–5), the Chinese SHFE market was closed, and LME copper exhibited a fluctuating trend of initial decline followed by recovery......

In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforms SHFE is unlikely to reverse. Strength in the overseas market will support SHFE aluminum's post-holiday catch-up potential, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, key focus will be on the pace of China aluminum ingot destocking and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream production resumptions.

During the May Day holiday in 2026, LME zinc traded in a general sideways range, finding solid support at the 40-day moving average. In terms of specific performance, LME zinc showed an N-shaped trend of rising first, then falling and rebounding again.