In summary, the import dividends marginally faded in June, while exports experienced a periodical recovery. The narrowing of the import window in July will cause monthly imports to decline significantly, and the annual trade pattern will enter a new phase of reduced imports and export recovery.

H1 silver concentrate imports surged 35.5% YoY, while refined silver exports stayed flat. Q2 saw heavy stockpiling in Shenzhen, disrupting spot pricing. Since late June, low-price inventories have cleared and投机盘 have retreated, stabilizing quotes. However, risks from remaining low-cost stocks remain.

July 21, 2026 News: According to statistics from China Customs, China's total chrome ore imports in June 2026 were 2.7957 million mt, up 13.0% MoM and up 70.4% YoY. Of this, imports from South Africa were 2.2644 million mt, up 16.2% MoM and up 65.6% YoY; from Turkey were 97,100 mt, down 34.2% MoM; and from Zimbabwe were 281,500 mt, up 12.3% MoM. From January to June 2026, China's total chrome ore imports were 14.0513 million mt, up 41.5% YoY. Of this, imports from South Africa were 11.2143 million mt, up 35.8% YoY; from Turkey were 791,700 mt, up 152.3% YoY; and from Zimbabwe were 1.2711 million mt, up 61.5% YoY. According to SMM data, global chrome ore bulk shipments in June 2026 were 3.06 million mt. Concentrated large arrivals of chrome ore pushed port inventories above 5 million mt. Limited by the surplus problem, the sustainability of the chrome ore price rebound is insufficient. Downstream ferrochrome plants are mostly waiting for the settlement of steel bidding prices next month, with mainstream expectations leaning bearish. Therefore, the willingness to purchase raw material chrome ore is low, with most inquiries being tentative and actual transactions mediocre. The chrome ore market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

SMM, July 20: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract 2609 closed at 23,010 yuan/mt, down 270 yuan/mt, a decline of 1.16%. Trading volume reached 182,000 lots, up 122,000 lots WoW, surging significantly as capital fled the market, with bears actively adding positions to drive prices down. Open interest came in at 261,400 lots, up 13,708 lots WoW, also rising notably as both bulls and bears entered the fray, though bearish positioning showed greater strength. The VR reading remained above 100, pointing to a high-volume sell-off this cycle, a concentrated release of bearish momentum, and ample downward energy. The medium-term bearish trend remains unchanged, the short-term bounce has ended, and the market has shifted into a pullback after breaking below short-term moving averages on heavy volume. SMM Commentary: Macro front, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate. On July 17, US forces carried out further airstrikes on Iran, while Iran launched large-scale strikes on US military targets in Kuwait and Syria, and attacked US-related facilities in Bahrain. Middle East tensions lingered, and rate-hike worries persisted. On the supply side, recovery continued, but the destocking pattern is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Future focus should remain on the progress of production resumptions and the trajectory of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, as well as China's downstream processing orders and aluminum semis export data. Today, the most-traded alumina contract 2609 settled at 2,710 yuan/mt, down 9 yuan/mt, a loss of 0.33%. Trading volume shrank sharply to 170,000 lots, down 109,000 lots WoW. Compared with the volume expansion during the previous candlestick rebound, the current contraction in momentum raises questions about the sustainability of any recovery. Open interest fell to 331,000 lots, down 29,960 WoW, declining for a consecutive session as both bears and bulls exited their positions, reflecting a strong wait-and-see sentiment with no trend-driven capital entering the market. The short-term 5- and 10-day moving averages flattened and converged, with the closing price pressing against the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term balance of power between longs and shorts. The medium-to-long-term 40- and 60-day moving averages continued to trend downward, suggesting the broader medium-term picture remains capped by bearish pressure. The VR reading remained below 100, pointing to weak trading sentiment, insufficient buying momentum from bulls, and a lack of proactive capital pushing prices higher. SMM Commentary: Total alumina inventory nationwide edged up MoM, with overall fluctuations remaining limited. Structurally, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters decreased, mainly because some smelters proactively slowed their procurement pace for high-priced ore, as spot alumina prices remained at a relatively high level, resulting in a reduction of in-factory inventory. Alumina refinery inventory saw a small increase, though this growth was largely offset by maintenance-related production cuts at some Shanxi enterprises and the release of new capacity in south China. Port-side inventory rose, influenced by the gradual arrival of new vessels. Warrant inventory continued to decline, as narrowing spreads between futures and spot prices combined with invoicing issues dampened the incentive to ship to delivery warehouses. In-transit and terminal inventories accumulated, mainly due to previously expired warrants being released as spot cargoes, combined with continued shipments from Guangxi, which increased the flow of goods through circulation channels. The market's operating structure for alumina is expected to remain largely stable in the short term. Some enterprises reliant on domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to tightening ore supply, but this will have a limited impact on monthly production, with inventory levels most likely holding at their current state. On the pricing front, as regional spot mismatch issues gradually ease, the spot price center may pull back slightly, and the subsequent trend will likely come under pressure. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients shall have no bearing on Shanghai Metals Market.]

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM statistics indicate that China exported 3607.39 tons​ of silicomanganese in June 2026, marking a 41.70% month-on-month​ decline and 213.25% year-on-year​ increase. Total exports for January–June 2026 reached 24856.28 tons, up76.68%​ year-on-year.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs and compiled by SMM, China's SiMn exports in June 2026 stood at 367.39 mt, down 94.06% MoM and down 68.10% YoY. Total SiMn exports in January-June reached 21,616.28 mt, up 53.65% YoY. The sharp drop in SiMn exports in June was mainly due to three overlapping factors: ensuring domestic supply, weak overseas demand, and holding back from selling amid losses.

This week (July 13-16), the copper scrap market operated under a triple framework of copper prices retreating after rapid rises, ongoing reverse-invoicing compliance constraints, and deepening high-temperature off-season. The most-traded SHFE copper contract surged to 105,020 yuan/mt mid-week, up nearly 2,000 yuan/mt from the start of the week. However, copper scrap prices were supported by compliance costs and suppliers holding prices firm, so the weekly price fluctuation was less than 1,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between primary metal and scrap widened from 2,445 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 3,923 yuan/mt, up more than 2,200 yuan/mt from the previous weekend. The widening spread was entirely driven by the unilateral rise in copper cathode. The resistance of copper scrap to decline was a key supply-side feature this week, which directly spurred hedging-related purchase demand from secondary copper rod enterprises. The supply side continued the structurally tight pattern seen since 2026. The first underlying constraint was reverse-invoicing compliance requirements: aftershocks from compliance inspections in Jiangxi and Hubei in south China persisted, and invoice quotas remained restricted in Shuyang, Jiangsu, leaving available compliant and deductible copper scrap persistently tight. The second was that after Document 770 eliminated irregular local tax rebates at the end of 2025, small and medium-sized copper scrap traders that previously relied on subsidies were continuously exiting the market, and overall available supply contracted markedly compared with the same period in previous years. Additionally, suppliers generally held a psychological defense of not selling cheap before copper prices break below 100,000 yuan/mt, and the selling pace throughout the week closely followed copper price fluctuations. At the start of the week when copper prices pulled back, strong hold-back sentiment prevailed, and tight supply left secondary copper rod enterprises struggling to find low-priced material. In mid-week when copper prices surged above 105,000 yuan/mt, suppliers’ willingness to sell at fixed prices increased, but because downstream scrap-using sectors had weak orders in the off-season and low acceptance of high prices, sales did not occur in large volumes. Most material was purchased by secondary copper rod enterprises using a hedging logic of buying raw material and shorting futures, not for actual production restocking. Many rod enterprises stopped pricing directly after purchasing enough to meet daily demand in the morning session and did not chase higher prices to buy. At the end of the week copper prices consolidated and pulled back, suppliers switched back to hold-back mode, and supply tightened again. Regional divergence persisted. In south China, due to compliance costs and slow capital turnover, bare bright copper purchase prices were 400-600 yuan/mt lower than in the north, maintaining the unusual structure of different prices for the same material. Traders maintained a low-inventory strategy of quick turnover, not daring to stockpile and bet on rising prices. The issue of payment collection cycles extending beyond two weeks remained unresolved, further limiting the release of supply elasticity. The demand side remained overall weak, with secondary copper rod enterprises reporting scarce new orders throughout the week. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod surged to 1,510 yuan/mt mid-week, touching the critical line of economic viability, but lacked sustainability and pulled back to 950 yuan/mt by the week's end. Meanwhile, secondary copper rods remained at a premium to copper futures due to rigid raw material costs. New orders at terminal wire and cable enterprises were weak, and they still held wait-and-see expectations that "copper prices have further downside room," with procurement mainly driven by rigid demand in pulses. Throughout the week, copper scrap transactions were largely driven by copper price fluctuations and hedging demand, while restocking volume for actual production was minimal. After copper prices pulled back at the week's end, rod enterprises' purchase willingness weakened further. The market displayed a weak equilibrium where "when copper prices rise, suppliers sell and rod enterprises collect for hedging; when copper prices fall, suppliers hold back and rod enterprises wait for lower prices." Currently, the market remains constrained by the dual restrictions of compliant invoices and off-season demand. Going forward, if the price difference between primary metal and scrap stabilizes above 1,500 yuan/mt and the implementation rules for reverse invoicing become clearer, this may trigger the release of some rigid demand; otherwise, the weak transaction pattern will persist.

[SMM Analysis: Price Spread Between Copper Cathode and Copper Scrap Widens by Over 2,000 Yuan, Driving Dominance of Hedging-Based Procurement] This week (July 13 – July 16), the copper scrap market operated under a triple framework of retreat after rapid rise in copper prices, ongoing compliance constraints from reverse invoicing, and intensifying high-temperature off-season. The most-traded SHFE copper contract surged to 105,020 yuan/mt mid-week, gaining nearly 2,000 yuan/mt for the full week compared to the start of the week. However, copper scrap was supported by compliance costs and suppliers holding prices firm, with full-week price fluctuations of less than 1,000 yuan/mt. The price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap widened from 2,445 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 3,923 yuan/mt, a WoW increase of over 2,200 yuan/mt, entirely driven by the unilateral rise in copper cathode prices. The resilience of copper scrap itself was the key supply-side feature this week, which directly gave rise to hedging-based procurement demand from secondary copper rod enterprises.....

[SMM Analysis] Futures Recovery Spurs Phased Transactions and Arrival Constraints, Stainless Steel Inventory Stops Rising and Pulls Back SMM, July 16 – This week, stainless steel social inventory ended its previous inventory buildup trend, stopped rising and pulled back overall, with marginal easing of inventory pressure. Total inventories in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined notably, from 943,700 mt on July 9, 2026 to 921,300 mt at the latest period, down 2.37% WoW. The off-season inventory accumulation trend saw a phased reversal. During the week, SS futures strengthened and rose again, effectively repairing previously weak market sentiment. Coupled with spot price increases that created reasonable room for traders to offer discounts, the market’s “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality was released intensively. Downstream end-user phased restocking demand kicked in, market transactions recovered markedly from the previous sluggish pattern, and destocking efficiency improved significantly. At the same time, typhoon weather disrupted regional logistics this week, restricting the pace of arrivals. Insufficient replenishment of spot supply in the market further tightened circulating resources from the supply side. Driven by the phased recovery in transactions and reduced arrivals, this successfully offset the inventory buildup pressure from weak off-season rigid demand, pushing social inventory to steadily pull back this week. Overall, the stronger futures repairing market sentiment, traders’ discounts promoting shipments, and typhoon-restricted arrivals were the key drivers behind the halt in rise and pullback of stainless steel inventories this week. Although real rigid demand from end-users during the off-season has not yet recovered materially and sustained transaction momentum remains insufficient, short-term sentiment-driven demand and circulation contraction formed an effective offset, effectively easing the previous inventory buildup pressure. At this stage, stainless…

[Bearish for Precious Metals] The escalating US-Iran conflict pushed up crude oil, and the risk of a rebound in inflation extended the high-rate cycle. This week, the US-Iran military confrontation further intensified. Over several consecutive days, the US military launched airstrikes on military facilities along Iran’s coast and around the Strait of Hormuz and resumed a maritime blockade of Iranian ports. Trump threatened to impose a 20% fee on goods transiting the strait, while Iran retaliated by striking US military bases in the Middle East. Driven by supply disruption fears, WTI crude surged over 12% during the week to break above $80 per barrel, and Brent approached $86. The renewed surge in oil prices sparked concerns about a second inflation wave, and market expectations shifted toward a prolonged period of high US Fed rates, indirectly weighing on the valuation of non-yielding precious metals assets. Warsh’s congressional testimony maintained a hawkish stance, reiterating zero tolerance for inflation and not ruling out rate hikes. Fed Chairman Warsh attended the semi-annual monetary policy hearing before Congress this week and, in his first appearance, sent a resolute signal. Although the June CPI released on the same day cooled significantly, Warsh stated clearly that “this is just one data point and far from mission accomplished,” stressed zero tolerance for persistent high inflation, and noted that the interest rate tool remains on the table. The hawkish tone partially offset the easing expectations triggered by the inflation data. The probability of a September rate hike remained above 45%, capping the downside room for real interest rates and limiting the rebound potential of precious metals. US Treasury yields continued to consolidate at highs, and institutional fund outflows persisted. The 10-year US Treasury yield consolidated at highs in a 4.5%–4.7% range during the week, briefly dipping to 4.54% after the CPI release before rebounding quickly. The US dollar index fell under pressure to break below 100 early in the week, then regained its footing above 100.5 as oil prices rebounded. In terms of fund flows, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, continued to decline. With yields staying high, the carrying cost of precious metals remained elevated. Short-term sentiment stayed bearish, casting doubt on the sustainability of any rebound. [Bullish for Precious Metals] US June CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, signaling a continued easing of inflationary pressures. The US June CPI, released on July 14, was up 3.5% YoY (expected 3.8%, prior 4.2%) and down 0.4% MoM, marking the first month-over-month decline since 2020. Core CPI was up 2.6% YoY (expected 2.8%) and flat MoM, the smallest increase since 2021. The following day, June PPI also surprised to the downside, falling 0.3% MoM (expected unchanged). The two inflation reports confirmed a cooling trend, and the market’s implied probability of a July Fed rate hike plummeted from nearly 50% before the data to around 10%. The central bank has increased its gold holdings for 20 consecutive months, with monthly purchases expanding gradually, building a bottom support. As of end-June, China's official gold reserves reached 75.44 million ounces, up by 480,000 ounces MoM, marking the 20th straight month of accumulation. The monthly addition size has expanded for four consecutive months, hitting a near 16-month high. The central bank displayed a clear "buy the dip" pattern, accelerating purchases during the sharp gold price correction in June, reflecting a long-term strategy of reserve diversification. Coupled with moderately accommodative domestic monetary policy and ample liquidity, the official gold purchasing trend provides structural support for gold prices, with downside room being materially constrained. Trump Calls for Interest Rate Cuts On July 16, Trump stated, "I hope interest rates will come down. Pausing rate hikes is better than hiking. The U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world." Market expectations for rising political pressure on the Fed intensified. [Macro Summary] This week, precious metals showed a "first down, then up" pattern with wild swings. At the start of the week, pressured by the escalation of US-Iran conflict pushing up oil prices and rising inflation rebound expectations, gold and silver continued to weaken and hit bottom. On July 14, the June CPI data came in well below expectations, cooling rate hike expectations, and precious metals rebounded, with gold once surging to around $4,110. However, later, Walsh's hawkish congressional testimony and persistently rising oil prices led to partial giving back of gains. Currently, the market's core tension lies in the tug-of-war between substantial cooling of inflation data and the risk of inflation resurgence from geopolitical conflicts driving up energy prices, as well as the expectation gap between the Fed's hawkish stance and weakening data. The key upcoming observation windows are the U.S. June retail sales data and the FOMC meeting at end-July. The former will test how much consumption resilience supports inflation, while the latter will clarify the Fed's policy rate path, becoming a key variable in determining whether precious metals can open upside room.