This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

Nickel Intermediate Product Market Weekly Review: Continued Weakness in Both Supply and Demand, MHP Payables Under Pressure

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,579.5/mt, touching a low of $12,536.5/mt early in the session. Copper prices then shifted higher, reaching a high of $12,712/mt before ultimately closing at $12,695.5/mt, down 0.27%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 297,000 lots, an increase of 3,404 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 98,080 yuan/mt, touching a high of 97,820 yuan/mt early in the session and a low of 97,720 yuan/mt early in the session. Copper prices then shifted higher, reaching a high of 98,260 yuan/mt before ultimately closing at 98,070 yuan/mt, up 0.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, a decrease of 1,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,398/mt, dipped to a low of $12,280/mt early in the session, then the price center rose to test a bottom at $12,755.5/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at $12,705.5/mt, up 3.06%, with trading volume at 28,000 lots and open interest at 294,000 lots, down 357 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 98,080 yuan/mt, touched a high of 98,500 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center fluctuated lower to test a bottom at 97,890 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 98,330 yuan/mt, up 0.11%, with trading volume at 33,000 lots and open interest at 178,000 lots, down 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions.

[SMM Titanium Spot Daily: Cost Support Strengthens, Rutile Titanium Dioxide Prices Rise Slightly] On April 7, titanium dioxide market prices rose slightly. High sulphuric acid prices coupled with expectations of supply tightening supported titanium dioxide prices. Enterprises operated at high rates, but demand was mediocre. Domestic trade was driven mainly by rigid demand, while export trade was divergent. In the short term, prices are expected to hold up well, but further rises depend on demand improvement.

[Supply Tightening Coupled With Macro Tailwinds Keeps Aluminum Prices Firmly at High Levels] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of gradually releasing peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment as the Tungsten Market Awaited Stabilization in Transactions] SMM News, March 18 Tungsten market prices were largely stable today, with only minor fluctuations, and the market showed strong wait-and-see sentiment. Trading volume in segments such as tungsten ore and APT was sparse, with transaction prices mostly hovering around the quoted price range. Transactions for downstream products such as powder were also limited, and transaction prices showed a slight downward trend.

SMM March 2nd Report: On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a large-scale military strike on Iran, which promptly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated sharply and fell into sustained turmoil. As a critical "chokepoint" for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 30% of global seaborne oil trade. Its blockade directly led to a severe physical disruption in the global energy supply chain, causing international oil prices to surge dramatically, with shipping costs and insurance fees skyrocketing, significantly increasing uncertainty in the energy market. As a key raw material for prebaked anodes used in aluminum production, petcoke is expected to enter a state of supply tightens, cost surges, and quality disturbances under the influence of the geopolitical situation. This change will directly impact the stability of China's petcoke import system, while also substantially raising domestic prebaked anode production costs, creating a chain reaction in the downstream aluminum industry. In terms of the overall distribution of import sources, in 2025, regions and countries with high petcoke import dependency in China showed a tiered characteristic. The first tier, centered around the US and Russia, saw the US accounting for 31%, making it the largest source of petcoke imports for China; Russia followed closely with 17%, together contributing nearly half of the total imports. The second tier was the Middle East, collectively accounting for 15%, serving as an important supplementary segment for China's petcoke imports. Other import sources were more dispersed, with Canada and Brazil each at 5%, and Argentina, Colombia, and Taiwan, China, each at 4%. This diversification of smaller sources enriched China's petcoke import supply system, but the influence of individual entities remained relatively limited. Notably, as a key supplementary sector for China's petcoke imports, the highly concentrated internal supply structure of the Middle East became the core reason for the impact of the deteriorating geopolitical situation on China's import market. In detail, the supply landscape of the Middle East exhibited a "dominance by one, supplemented by a few" feature: Saudi Arabia, with a 64% share, held an absolute dominant position, being the core exporter of petcoke from the Middle East to China; Oman ranked second with 22%; Kuwait accounted for 12%, with other regions providing only minor supplements. In terms of imported product specifications, petcoke from the Middle East mainly consisted of medium- to high-sulfur varieties, with different source countries focusing on specific types: petcoke from Saudi Arabia primarily included high-sulfur sponge coke and high-sulfur shot coke, from Oman mainly shot coke, and from Kuwait mainly medium-sulfur sponge coke. These types of petcoke are primarily used for blending in the production of prebaked anodes, serving as a crucial raw material supplement for the domestic prebaked anode industry. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has a multi-dimensional impact on the petroleum coke market: On one hand, the blockade leads to a complete halt in the export of Middle Eastern petroleum coke, significantly reducing the international circulation of petroleum coke. The arrival cycle for petroleum coke imported by China from the Middle East is notably extended, directly exacerbating the tightness of domestic import supply. On the other hand, some refineries in the region are affected by military conflicts, limiting their production activities and further contracting the overall supply of petroleum coke, creating a dual squeeze on the supply side. Meanwhile, the surge in international oil prices drives up the production costs of petroleum coke from refinery delayed coking units, providing a solid bottom support for petroleum coke prices. Coupled with the sharp rise in international shipping freight and war risk insurance premiums, these factors collectively push petroleum coke prices into a more likely to rise than fall trajectory. In summary, this geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is a significant external shock to the 2026 petroleum coke-prebaked anode-aluminum industry chain. The triple pressures of supply tightening, cost surges, and quality disruptions will continue to be passed down: Petroleum coke prices will keep rising, pushing up the production costs of prebaked anodes, which in turn will elevate the production costs of aluminum. If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, the entire industry chain will gradually enter a phase characterized by high costs, low inventory, and strong fluctuations. Ensuring supply chain security and controlling enterprise costs will become the core challenges facing the industry.

SMM Nickel News on March 2: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran Situation: Trump said the new Iranian leadership wants to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to dialogue. Military action against Iran could last for four weeks. (2) The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report. Spot Market: On March 2, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 1,150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums and discounts, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,150 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -700-300 yuan/mt, showing a decline. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract fluctuated rangebound in the morning session, closing at 139,010 yuan/mt with a decrease of 0.26% by the end of the morning session. Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, leading to a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and market sentiment quickly turned risk-averse, causing a slight correction in nickel prices. The medium and long-term logic of supply tightening at the mine end remains unchanged, and it is expected that the most-traded SHFE nickel contract will continue to oscillate around the 140,000 yuan/mt level in the short term.

The nickel intermediate product market maintained a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, but due to accident disruptions, the center of MHP nickel coefficient shifted upward.