[SMM Analysis] Slight Stainless Steel Inventory Destocking Amid Weak Off-Season Demand and Proactive Clearing by Traders SMM, June 11 – This week, stainless steel social inventories extended the previous destocking trend, with total inventory pulling back slightly again. Total inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined from 940,400 mt on June 4, 2026, to 932,900 mt on June 11, down 0.8% WoW. Under the off-season conditions, inventories continued to show a slight destocking trend. This week, macro headwinds outside China continued to intensify, and SS futures declined in successive sessions, dragging stainless steel spot prices down in tandem. Overall market pessimism deepened. On top of this, the industry formally entered the traditional consumption off-season. Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream end-users stayed high, actual just-in-time procurement was relatively weak, and overall transactions in the spot market remained sluggish. The demand side would have created inventory buildup pressure. However, the supply side and the circulation sector provided a strong offset, effectively neutralizing the inventory accumulation risk caused by weak off-season demand. On one hand, multiple stainless steel mills gradually implemented production cuts and maintenance during the month, leading to downward adjustments in production schedules. On the other hand, the persistent decline in futures heightened industry concerns about the near-term outlook. Traders widely held pessimistic expectations, and the market mainly operated with an approach of proactive selling and reducing their own inventories. Price concessions to clear inventory were common, accelerating the turnover of spot goods in the market. Amid the opposing tug-of-war between supply and demand, stainless steel social inventories pulled back slightly further this week. On the whole, weak just-in-time demand during the off-season and persistently sluggish transactions were potential bearish factors for inventory buildup, while the marginal supply contraction from steel mill maintenance and traders' concentrated proactive inventory clearing were the factors behind this week's ...

Over the next 1-2 weeks, the domestic petroleum coke market is expected to mainly edge lower amid stability. Low-sulphur petroleum coke prices will face relatively greater downward pressure, while mid and high-sulphur petroleum coke may see limited declines due to rigid demand support from the prebaked anode industry. The overall market will remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Futures’ Stop-Falling Fails to Shift Cautious Sentiment, Stainless Steel Spot Quotes Remain Steady SMM, June 11 - SS futures showed a trend of stopping falling and stabilizing. Supported by the stabilizing SHFE nickel futures, SS stabilized in tandem. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,380 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although supported by the stabilizing SS futures, overall stainless steel spot quotes remained stable, but spot traders lacked confidence and showed strong willingness to sell, leaving some room for bargaining and resulting in the emergence of some low-priced cargoes. The most-traded SS futures contract saw a pullback after earlier losses. At 10:15 am, SS2607 was at 14,405 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 565-1,215 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; the average price of cold-rolled rough-edge 304/2B coil was flat in Wuxi and flat in Foshan; the price of Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil fell by 175 yuan/mt; the price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi fell by 150 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were stable. Stainless steel futures and spot markets experienced heightened volatility, with futures disturbed by macro news from outside China, rising first then falling, and the off-season characteristics of the market fully emerged. The industry has vague expectations for the future market, with a thick wait-and-see sentiment. Transactions saw sporadic recoveries but lacked sustainability, and traders faced rising pressure to sell, mostly boosting transactions by offering discounts. Overall, the market presents a game pattern where macro news disturbs futures, off-season demand weakens, supply marginally adjusts, and inventory stops falling and starts to build up...

DCE iron ore prices strengthened slightly in early trading and rallied at the close today. The most-traded contract I2609 eventually settled at 771.5 yuan/mt, up 1.51% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose 5–10 yuan/mt from the day before. Most traders followed market trends, with activity generally moderate; steel mills maintained a strong wait-and-see stance with few inquiries. As of now, spot transaction volumes have been light. Demand side, iron ore demand grew significantly this week. According to SMM’s latest data, the operating rate of surveyed mills rose 0.59% WoW this week to 90.47%, while daily average hot metal output was 2.4597 million mt, up 29,500 mt WoW. Sentiment side, as China’s coal mines gradually resume production, the marginal disruptions from coal and coke are gradually easing, reducing the downward pressure on iron ore prices. Furthermore, market rumors continue to ferment, and expectations of supply contraction are beginning to intensify, providing a floor for iron ore prices. In the near term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate after a brief recovery.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Stainless Steel Futures Extend Pullback, Spot Market Confidence Weakens SMM, June 10. SS futures are trending lower and probing downside. Dragged further by the overall weakness in nonferrous metals futures, SS futures extended their pullback. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,410 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the successive declines in SS futures, the support level that the market had originally pinned hopes on at 14,500 yuan/mt was broken, after which market confidence weakened significantly. Traders’ willingness to sell and destock increased notably, low-priced cargoes frequently emerged in the market, buying interest was clearly insufficient, and overall transactions remained mediocre during the day. The most-traded SS futures contract declined and pulled back. At 10:15 am, SS2607 was reported at 14,395 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 575-1,225 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan fell 25 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quotation in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Stainless steel futures and spot experienced heightened volatility. The futures were first boosted then weighed down by macro news from outside China, and the off-season characteristics fully emerged. The industry holds vague expectations for the future market, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Transactions showed sporadic recoveries lacking sustainability, and selling pressure on traders mounted...

Overall, the secondary lead market will remain in a pattern of "weak cost support and strong consumption suppression" in the short term. Smelter production resumptions in June will find it difficult to fully offset previous cuts, with the supply side showing marginal improvement but remaining tight. Lead prices will continue to fluctuate weakly.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Futures Weaken, SS Futures Pull Back; Spot Prices Steady with End-User Just-in-Time Procurement SMM reported on June 9 that SS futures showed a downward trend. Dragged by the overall weakness in non-ferrous metal futures, SS futures pulled back simultaneously. As of midday close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,420 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although futures fell back, spot stainless steel quotations remained firm, with mainstream quotations showing limited decline, but some lower-priced resources were also reported. Downstream end-users were cautious in purchasing, mostly making just-in-time procurement at low prices. The most-traded SS futures contract fell back. At 10:15 AM, SS2607 was quoted at 14,470 yuan/mt, down 255 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 550-1,200 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil fell 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, the average price fell 25 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 25 yuan/mt in Foshan; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, quotations in Wuxi held steady; cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. Stainless steel futures and spots experienced heightened volatility, futures rose first and then fell back, disturbed by overseas macro news, and off-season characteristics fully emerged. Industry expectations for the future were vague, wait-and-see sentiment was strong, transactions recovered in pulses but lacked sustainability, traders faced rising shipment pressure, and mostly boosted deals by cutting profits. Overall, macro news disturbed futures, off-season...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Bullish and Bearish News Alternately Drive SS to Retreat After Rapid Rise; Stainless Steel Spot Prices Stay Stable, Transactions Mediocre SMM, June 8: SS futures showed an advance-then-decline trend. In the morning, due to an earthquake in the Philippines, the market feared that nickel ore supply would be impacted, driving SHFE nickel and SS futures higher together. However, in the afternoon, news emerged from Indonesia that nickel ore quotas were expected to be relaxed, causing SS futures to decline once again. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,665 yuan/mt. On the spot market, although SS futures showed strength in the morning, some stainless steel spot offers edged up, but market acceptance of higher prices was limited, and transactions were mediocre. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was quoted at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 345-945 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, average prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi held steady; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan remained stable. Stainless steel futures and spot markets experienced heightened volatility. Futures, swayed by overseas macro news, rose first and then fell, fully revealing the off-season character of the market. The industry's outlook for the near-term market is ambiguous, wait-and-see sentiment is strong, transactions see sporadic recovery but lack sustainability, traders are under rising shipment pressure, and many are boosting sales by offering price concessions. Overall, macro...

This week, the MHP market tightened overall, with nickel and cobalt payables fluctuating at highs. Supply side, Indonesia adjusted its HPM formula, leading to some expectations of cost increases for hydrometallurgical ore, while sulphur supply deficits prompted some producers to plan production cuts, reducing MHP supply and pushing transaction payables higher. Demand side, downstream nickel salt prices showed weakness and the risk of losses persisted, leaving nickel salt smelters relatively less willing to accept high-priced MHP. However, downstream ternary demand recovered somewhat, creating rigid purchasing needs for some producers and supporting stronger MHP nickel payables. Under the influence of tight supply-demand expectations, the market is expected to hold up well in the short term. The high-grade nickel matte market similarly saw both supply and demand weak. Currently, high-grade nickel matte holds a clear cost advantage over MHP, but on the supply side, mainstream suppliers have already completed long-term order signing, leaving limited spot cargo available. On the demand side, constraints from downstream production line compatibility limited actual consumption capacity. Overall purchasing sentiment was subdued, trading activity was low, and payables remained stable. The international sulphur market continued to tighten, pushing prices higher. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained unresolved, with approximately 1 million mt of loaded sulphur still stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. This was compounded by Turkey’s export ban and Russia’s ban extension, further tightening supply. Major Middle Eastern producers sharply raised their official selling prices in May, with official prices in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE all hitting multi-year highs. Although high prices have curbed some demand, the magnitude of supply contraction still far exceeded demand shrinkage, making the strong price trend difficult to reverse. Sulphur prices are expected to stay high. Going forward, close attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and the resumption of transport routes. Regarding nickel prices, US-Iran tensions triggered market concerns over interest rate hikes this week, leading to a broad pullback in non-ferrous metals. Coupled with disruptions from news on sulphur and quotas, nickel prices fell under pressure. Against the backdrop of rising MHP payables and stable high-grade nickel matte payables, the absolute prices of MHP and high-grade nickel matte declined along with the pullback in nickel prices. Additionally, MHP cobalt prices, similar to refined cobalt prices, remained basically stable. Overall, the intermediate product market is expected to hold up well in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Comment] Macro Disturbances and Off‑Season Drag Weaken Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices, Inventory Buildup SMM, June 5 – SS futures fluctuated downward and gradually pulled back. Non‑ferrous metals futures continued the weak pattern of the previous day, with the downtrend intact and further weakening and pulling back, dragging SS futures down in tandem. As of the morning close, the most‑traded SS contract stood at 14,635 yuan/mt. In the spot market, pressured by the persistently weak SS futures, combined with the traditional off‑season and weak end‑use consumption, downstream enterprises were generally cautious in their inquiries and purchases, and market trading turned dull again. Meanwhile, social inventory shifted from decline to increase, showing an accumulating trend, and traders, under transaction pressure, cut their quotes to varying degrees. The most‑traded SS futures contract fell back. At 10:15 a.m., SS2607 was at 14,635 yuan/mt, down 135 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 435–1,035 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of Wuxi cold‑rolled 201/2B coil was flat; for cold‑rolled 304/2B coil with matte edge, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and in Foshan, it also fell by 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold‑rolled 316L/2B coil price was unchanged; for hot‑rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes remained stable; cold‑rolled 430/2B coil prices held steady in both Wuxi and Foshan. Stainless steel futures and spot markets experienced heightened volatility, with futures first rising and then falling, disturbed by macro news from outside China, and the off‑season characteristics of the market fully emerged. The industry’s outlook for the near term is unclear, wait‑and‑see sentiment is heavy, ...