【SMM Steel】Unions representing POSCO and Hyundai Steel warned of a structural crisis facing the steel industry in Pohang. The sector is under pressure from global supply chain disruptions, low-priced steel imports, rising carbon transition costs, and increasing industrial electricity prices. These challenges are eroding competitiveness and threatening tens of thousands of jobs. Unions called for urgent action, including lower electricity costs and expanded direct power purchase mechanisms.

On April 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.135 million mt of steel in March 2026, up 1.298 million mt MoM, a 16.6% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to March totaled 24.717 million mt, down 9.9% YoY. China imported 512,000 mt of steel in March 2026, up 143,000 mt MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY. China's Steel Exports Increased MoM in March Due to fewer days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors, steel exports saw a seasonal rebound in March. Earlier SMM survey data on export order-taking also hinted at this trend — domestic sellers gradually resumed taking orders from mid-to-late January, with export order-taking maintaining a relatively high growth rate MoM. On the other hand, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for two consecutive months, with Asia, Europe, and the Americas all rising MoM. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, China's cumulative steel imports from January to March totaled 1.339 million mt, down 14.1% YoY; net steel exports reached 23.378 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in March 2026 was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points MoM, running above 50% for 11 consecutive months, driven by some economies in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, while Middle East geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions persisted. China's new export orders index for the manufacturing sector was 49.1% in February, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, showing a relatively notable recovery MoM. Data monitored by the World Steel Association showed that global crude steel production in February 2026 fell 2.2% YoY to 141.8 million mt. Among them, the pullback in China's production was mainly due to physical shutdowns during the Chinese New Year holiday and post-holiday high inventory forcing steel mills to actively cut hot metal production. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world also declined significantly by 8.75% MoM, with notable divergence in production schedule paces across regions — the most prominent being the Middle East, where output dropped markedly due to geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. The contraction in ex-China production, particularly in the Middle East, created opportunities for China's exports, especially semi-finished products. Chart 1 - Iran's Export Data by Product Category As of April 13, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $505/mt, $625/mt, and $495/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $485/mt. Currently, China's HRC export price was +$20/mt, +$140/mt, and +$10/mt lower than those countries respectively. This shows that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed up ex-China steel costs far more than in China , further highlighting China's steel export price advantage. Chart 2 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export scheduling data, HRC export planned volume this month was 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from last month's actual exports, an increase of 8.5% MoM. According to SMM steel export order-taking data, as production gradually resumed in and outside China, steel export order-taking in March increased 13.98% MoM from February. Due to the gap left by Iran's exports to Southeast Asia, the most notable increase was in semi-finished products, while the increase in finished products was relatively limited. Taking all factors into consideration, with order-taking and shipping gradually recovering, SMM expects steel exports in April to continue rebounding MoM. However, differences across product categories may emerge, which is expected to result in relatively limited incremental volume in the General Administration of Customs data released on the 8th, while the product-specific data released on the 20th may show relatively strong performance in semi-finished products. Chart 3 - SMM Steel Export Order Taking VolumeData Source Disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. 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[SMM Tin Midday Review: Tin Price Center Shifted Upward, Breaking Through 380,000; Spot Market Trading Remained Sluggish]

[SMM Aluminum Express News] India’s midstream and downstream aluminum industry is facing a severe crisis due to the ongoing West Asia conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Aluminum Extrusion Manufacturers Association of India (ALEMAI). The conflict has broken supply chains for raw materials and aluminum scrap, causing production in the extrusion segment to drop sharply by 40–50%. Against an installed capacity of 4.2 million tons, extrusion units are currently operating at only 1.2–1.3 million ton, while rolled products stand at around 1.5 million tons. Rising input costs, especially for aluminum scrap, combined with higher logistics expenses and cheap imports, have significantly eroded the competitiveness of domestic producers.

Saudi Finance Minister, Mohammed Al-Jadaan, has cautioned that recent global supply chain disruptions are now exceeding the impact seen after the COVID-19 pandemic. He noted that ongoing geopolitical tensions could have wider economic consequences if they continue for an extended period of time. He pointed out that while oil markets often draw the most attention, the pressure is becoming more visible across key industrial sectors such as refined products, fertilisers, steel, aluminium and petrochemicals.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council in the US, said that oil tankers had "already begun to pass sporadically" through the Strait of Hormuz, and that if necessary, the scale of a globally coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves could be expanded. Speaking on CNBC, he said the White House had formulated response plans for every stage of supply chain disruptions, and said he was "very confident that the current situation is under control and will end soon."

Recently, the Malaysian stainless steel market has been roiled by supply chain disruptions as multiple shipments of cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesian Tsingshan faced severe customs clearance hurdles. This abrupt "stuck at customs" situation triggered strong concerns among local downstream processors regarding supply stability and spot price volatility. However, a recent gazette issued by the Malaysian Federal Government has finally turned the tide, though the underlying policy chess game is far from over. The Resolution: Official Exemption for Specific Indonesian Entity On March 6, 2026, the Attorney General's Chambers of Malaysia officially published the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2026 (Amendment) Order 2026 under gazette P.U. (A) 120. This document provides a crucial correction to the anti-dumping policy regarding Indonesia. Under the amended schedule for "The Republic of Indonesia," the broad category of "Other producer or exporter" has been redefined to explicitly exclude PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy (a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group) . Effective Period and Retroactivity: The amendment is backdated, officially effective from January 15, 2026, to April 23, 2026 . Affected Products and HS Codes: The policy applies to cold-rolled stainless steel in coils, sheets, or any other form with a thickness of not more than 6.5 millimeters. The specific Malaysian Harmonized System (HS) Codes are: 7219.31.00 00 7219.32.00 00 7219.33.00 00 7219.34.00 00 7219.35.00 00 7220.20.10 00 7220.20.90 00 (Note: Excludes cold-rolled stainless steel with bright annealed (BA), No. 8 mirror finish, embossed, rigidised, etched, or coloured finishes, or those with a hardness value exceeding 250HV). Historical Trace: Was the "Customs Hold-Up" an Administrative Glitch? SMM's review of historical gazettes reveals that Indonesian Tsingshan had long held a "tax-free shield." Back on April 26, 2021, when Malaysia enacted the Customs (Anti-Dumping Duties) Order 2021 [P.U. (A) 197], which imposed a 5-year anti-dumping duty on cold-rolled stainless steel from Indonesia and Vietnam, PT Indonesia Ruipu Nickel and Chrome Alloy was explicitly exempted from the onset. However, as the policy entered a renewal/transition phase in early 2026 (post-January 15), it appears an administrative oversight occurred. The exemption clause was not automatically carried over, causing incoming shipments to be slapped with the maximum 34.82% duty designated for "Other Indonesian producers," leading to the customs blockage. The retroactive amendment published on March 6 essentially rectifies this glitch, reinstating the company's exemption status and allowing the stranded cargoes to clear customs rapidly. The Ultimate Suspense: The "April 23" Sunset Countdown While the immediate clearance crisis is resolved, SMM notes that a much larger policy countdown is looming. The "April 23" deadline set in the latest gazette is not arbitrary. According to the original 2021 directive, Malaysia's 5-year anti-dumping measure against Indonesian stainless steel has a statutory expiration date of April 23, 2026 . This means the entire Southeast Asian stainless steel trade network will face a critical Sunset Review node in just over a month: Import Rush: With only a month left in this guaranteed "tax-free window," Indonesian exporters will likely expedite shipments. This could result in a short-term flood of Indonesian spot materials into the Malaysian market, pressuring local prices. Policy Reshuffle: Post-April 23, if the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) does not extend the anti-dumping duties, other Indonesian mills will regain low-cost access to Malaysia. Conversely, given Malaysia's strong protectionist stance—evidenced by the 2023 administrative review [P.U. (A) 225] which levied duties against China, Korea, and Thailand—if MITI extends the measures, can Tsingshan maintain its exclusive exemption in the new cycle? This decision will dictate ASEAN stainless steel pricing dynamics in the second half of the year. SMM will continue to track MITI's upcoming sunset review announcements and customs data to monitor shifts in Southeast Asian stainless steel trade flows.

According to SMM data, during the first week of the traditional "Golden March" peak season (March 2 - March 6, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2604) exhibited a strong, high-level oscillating trend. This was driven by the resonance of international geopolitical storms and the tone set by China's macroeconomic policies. By the close at 10:15 on March 6, the contract traded higher at 14,235 yuan/mt (approx. $2,063/mt), up 85 yuan/mt (approx. $12/mt) (+0.60%) from last Friday's close of 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt). The market this week was characterized by "strong expectations but weak reality." A sudden global supply chain crisis and firm raw material costs provided a solid floor for market valuations. However, high spot inventories and the looming pressure of resumed production kept prices cautious when attempting upward breakouts. Macro-Economy: A "Super Macro Week" Defined by Geopolitics and Policy Support On the macroeconomic front, this was undeniably a "super macro week" with exceptionally strong signals from China and the global market. Internationally, a geopolitical "black swan" emerged as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed and threatened to strike passing vessels. This extreme event immediately sparked fears of a global supply chain crisis and surging energy expectations. U.S. Federal Reserve officials subsequently voiced concerns over the war's spillover effects and a potential rebound in inflation, significantly cooling expectations for interest rate cuts. However, in the commodities market, trades driven by "inflation hedging" and "supply chain disruptions" boosted the overall premium of the base metals sector. In China, the government work report delivered at the "Two Sessions" set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%-5%. It explicitly proposed utilizing capacity regulations and standard-setting to deeply rectify "involutionary" (cut-throat) competition. This policy direction provides strong expectation-driven support for supply-side optimization in traditional Chinese manufacturing. Fundamentals: Inventories Near Peak, Clash of Supply and Demand Imminent Fundamentally, social inventories are showing early signs of peaking, though the market will soon face the test of surging supply. The latest SMM data shows social inventories at 1.0164 million mt this week, a marginal increase of just 300 mt from last week's 1.0161 million mt. The seasonal inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival fully aligns with industry patterns and remains within market expectations. Traders have not resorted to panic selling, keeping short-term inventory pressure manageable. However, a shift is brewing on the supply side. The output reduction caused by concentrated maintenance at Chinese steel mills in February is nearing its end. As mills enter a concentrated resumption phase in March, scheduled production is expected to rise sharply. This surge in supply will clash head-on with recovering demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, leading to a phased reshaping of the market's supply-demand dynamics. Costs: Robust Upward Resilience Sets a Solid Floor On the cost side, raw materials continued to show robust upward resilience, establishing a solid baseline for futures prices. Driven by the ongoing fallout from Indonesian nickel ore quotas and premium news, raw material prices rose across the board this week. As of March 6, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes climbed to 1,088 yuan/mtu (approx. $158/mtu), and high-carbon ferrochrome prices were adjusted upwards to 8,600 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,246/50 mt). Although mainstream steel mills currently show low acceptance of high NPI prices and remain cautious in procurement—resulting in sparse actual market transactions—the raw material sector has minimal room to yield on price, dominated by expectations of tight ore supply and bullish sentiment. The steady climb in spot costs has effectively capped the downside risk for stainless steel prices. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week sought a balance amid the fierce tug-of-war between "geopolitical premiums + cost support" and "million-ton inventories + production resumption expectations." The macroeconomic shifts triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, coupled with China's "Two Sessions" mandate to curb cut-throat competition, have injected immense confidence into the bulls regarding macro sentiment. Looking ahead to next week, the market will deeply enter the reality-check phase of the "Golden March" peak season. The core focus will shift to the actual implementation of steel mill resumptions in March and the pace at which downstream end-users digest substantial orders. In the short term, futures prices are expected to maintain wide fluctuations at high levels, underpinned by the cost line. Industry clients are advised to closely monitor geopolitical developments and the pace of spot inventory destocking, while rationally utilizing futures tools to lock in production margins.

Recently, geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has emerged, bringing a certain degree of impact to the overall overseas PV market. Below, we provide an in-depth analysis of the current Middle East PV market from various perspectives:

February 2026 proved to be a pivotal month of challenge and adjustment for the global stainless steel market. Driven by the compounding pressures of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), intensifying geopolitical trade friction, significantly tightened raw material quotas, and sudden supply chain disruptions, the market navigated a complex landscape.