SMM April 9 Update: Guangdong region: Premiums in this region bottomed out and rebounded this week. After the holiday, copper prices surged briefly, weakening downstream demand and pushing premiums lower. However, as inventory continued to decline and hit new lows, premiums rose again. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 190 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper premiums were at 120 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt WoW. On Thursday, the price spread of standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong showed Guangdong higher by 130 yuan/mt, with the spread narrowing WoW and no cross-regional cargo transfers occurring. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 35,000 mt, down 10,500 mt WoW and down 62,700 mt from the annual high. Warrants totaled 18,800 mt, down 7,600 mt WoW. Specifically: warehouse arrivals this week were 9,900 mt/week, up 1,700 mt/week WoW, far below the annual average (14,000 mt/week). Some suppliers increased shipments to warehouses during the Qingming holiday, which was the main reason for the increase in arrivals. Warehouse withdrawals were 21,000 mt/week, down 3,600 mt/week WoW, but still far above the annual average (14,200 mt/week). Downstream consumption pulled back after the Qingming holiday compared to pre-holiday levels, and we expect it to decline further next week. Looking ahead to next week, neither imported nor domestic sources are expected to see significant increases in arrivals, and supply is expected to remain tight. On the demand side, downstream consumption has shown signs of weakening since mid-week, and consumption is expected to decline further next week. Therefore, supply is expected to remain flat while consumption declines next week, destocking speed will slow down, and upside room for premiums is likely to be limited. (The above information is derived from market research and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.)

SMM April 9 update: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 190 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 97,620 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 97,525 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline and had fallen for 17 consecutive days, with tight supply remaining the main driver. With both inventory and copper prices falling, suppliers actively held prices firm. As the weekend approached, downstream buyers also moderately increased procurement volume. Overall, spot trades today were better than the previous day. Today, the copper cathode procurement sentiment in Guangdong was 2.34, up 0.04 from the previous trading day, and the shipments sentiment was 3.78, down 0.03 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, both inventory and copper prices declined, and spot trades were better than the previous day.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue its relatively strong trend. From a regional structure perspective, available spot cargo in Jiangsu remains tight, with some downstream enterprises facing difficulties in procurement, providing strong support for spot premiums. From a market structure perspective, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts has widened further, and suppliers have shown a stronger willingness to hold positions for delivery under the contango structure, with low willingness to sell at lower prices and strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Demand side, although downstream procurement has become more cautious following the pullback in copper prices, rigid restocking demand persists. Overall, supported by the combined effects of tight regional supply and the price spread structure, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to maintain current levels tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,398/mt, dipped to a low of $12,280/mt early in the session, then the price center rose to test a bottom at $12,755.5/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at $12,705.5/mt, up 3.06%, with trading volume at 28,000 lots and open interest at 294,000 lots, down 357 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 98,080 yuan/mt, touched a high of 98,500 yuan/mt early in the session, then the price center fluctuated lower to test a bottom at 97,890 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 98,330 yuan/mt, up 0.11%, with trading volume at 33,000 lots and open interest at 178,000 lots, down 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by bears reducing positions.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,949/mt. During the Asian session, prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,962.5/mt. Entering the European session, lead prices shifted to fluctuate downward. Although there were slight rebounds during the period, the momentum was limited. Prices continued to weaken during the evening session, dipping to a low of $1,940/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,947.5/mt, up $8.5/mt, a gain of 0.44%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,805 yuan/mt. After a brief pullback at the start, prices moved higher in a volatile manner, touching a high of 16,825 yuan/mt, then moved sideways within the 16,785-16,810 yuan/mt range. During the midnight session, lead prices fluctuated downward, dipping to a low of 16,745 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly at the end of the session, ultimately closing at 16,765 yuan/mt, recording a bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.21%. On the macro front: 1. Iranian media: The Strait of Hormuz has been fully closed. 2. Iranian media: If Israeli attacks on Lebanon do not stop, Iran will withdraw from the ceasefire. 3. "US Fed mouthpiece": The ceasefire agreement made it harder for the US Fed to decide. 4. US Fed meeting minutes: More officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes. 5. US media: Trump considered partially withdrawing US troops from NATO allies. 6. World Gold Council: Gold ETFs saw record capital outflows in March. 7. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council established the Overseas State-owned Assets Bureau. 8. Iran sought security guarantees from China? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. Spot fundamentals: Boosted by positive macro news, SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Some suppliers lowered discounts for shipments, while others had limited cargoes and temporarily offered no quotes. Quotes for primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site diverged, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -30 to +50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelter shipments also diverged, with some holding prices firm for shipments and others expanding discounts for shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50 to 0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, making it difficult to close deals at high prices in the spot market, with some premium cargoes attracting no interest. Inventory side, as of April 8, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,400 mt to 279,025 mt. As of April 7, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory rebounded slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Supply side, China's five-region lead ingot social inventory saw a slight inventory buildup. Secondary lead enterprises saw slower-than-expected production resumptions due to profit constraints. Some smelters cut production slightly this week due to insufficient raw material inventory. Meanwhile, some smelters that resumed production in mid-to-late March were still in the capacity ramp-up stage. The supply side presented a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. Demand side, lead prices fluctuated at highs, suppressing downstream purchase willingness. Wait-and-see sentiment was strong in the market, with high-priced spot cargoes seeing sluggish transactions, and some premium varieties attracting little interest. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation trend in the short term.

Data released on April 2, 2026, shows that Canadian iron ore production fell by 8.6% in January 2026 compared to the previous month. This decline is attributed to seasonal logistics bottlenecks in the Labrador Trough and scheduled maintenance at several major concentration plants. Despite the short-term dip, Canadian producers are increasingly positioning themselves as key suppliers of high-grade, low-impurity concentrate required for Direct Reduction (DR) steelmaking, with several expansion projects in the Quebec-Labrador region aimed at filling the emerging global supply deficit for DR-grade ore.

Precious metal prices rebounded today amid news of a temporary ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict. The TD-SHFE silver most-traded contract spot-futures price spread saw no significant change for the time being, and the spot market maintained premium quotations. In the morning session in Shanghai, suppliers of national-standard silver ingots posted mainstream quotations at premiums of 50-60 yuan/kg against TD, or premiums of 20 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver ag2604 futures contract, or discounts of 10 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver ag2606 futures contract. Downstream consumption remained sluggish with significant bargaining, and some suppliers lowered premiums to 30-50 yuan/kg for shipments. Downstream buyers' cautious purchasing on fears of price declines improved somewhat, but with limited rigid demand, actual transactions remained sluggish.

The operating rate of secondary copper rod in March 2026 was 14.25%, below the expected 16.26%, up 6.27 percentage points MoM and down 25.93 percentage points YoY. In March, China's secondary copper rod market struggled under multiple pressures including wild swings in copper prices, deepening industrial fiscal and tax policy reforms, and structural tightness in raw material supply, failing to exhibit the traditional seasonal recovery

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Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Demand side, after the rapid rise in copper prices, orders from downstream enterprises decreased somewhat, with most enterprises still primarily making just-in-time procurement, and demand resilience remains. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly. Suppliers holding long positions in near-month contracts, under the contango structure, are more inclined to hold open interest for delivery rather than sell spot copper at low prices, with low willingness to sell at reduced prices and a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.