In H1 2026, China’s aluminum extrusion industry ran under three clear traits: feeble domestic demand recovery, overseas demand sliding first then bouncing back, and a sharp split between booming and sluggish product segments.

July 17, 2026: The ferrochrome and chrome ore market fluctuated slightly...

SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI average price dropped WoW by 3.1 yuan/nickel unit to 1,129.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price dropped WoW by $0.47/nickel unit to record $145.76/nickel unit.

June Price Review: The monthly average price of non-oriented silicon steel exhibited a bottoming-out decline in June. On the supply-demand front, the market shifted from a slight balance to a narrow undersupply, with fundamentals continuing to improve marginally. The oversupply that previously weighed on the market gradually eased, providing price support. Spot prices performed stronger than expected, edging down only slightly. As a transitional month shifting from off-season to peak season, the supply-demand pattern improved in June. Fundamental Analysis: China's production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decline in July. Comparing with the same period in previous years, the scheduled production in July 2026 was lower than that of July 2025. Analyzing by grade, the proportion of NEV grades in the July production schedule rebounded to 15%, high grades accounted for 19%, while the proportion of low and mid-end grades pulled back to 66%. Steel mills continued to adjust their product mix, with the scheduled production of conventional low and mid-end grades shrinking accordingly. While total scheduled production continued to contract, supply-side pressure persisted. Maintaining original production levels for NEV and high-grade resources while significantly reducing low and mid-end grades optimized the supply structure to some extent, supporting market resilience. Downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel showed structural divergence in May. In the home appliance sector, total silicon steel consumption pulled back MoM, with air conditioners remaining the core demand driver. Demand from the automotive sector was strong, with silicon steel consumption climbing to a high level for the period in May. Specifically, passenger NEVs provided the largest support for automotive silicon steel demand. Overall, traditional demand from home appliances weakened marginally, while NEV demand continued to strengthen. The demand center shifted toward the automotive sector, generating structural benefits for high-grade and NEV-grade non-oriented silicon steel. July Price Outlook: Supply side, China's planned production schedule for non-oriented silicon steel continued to decrease in July 2026, with reductions primarily focused on low and mid-end grades. On one hand, the off-season impact became more pronounced, downstream demand was soft, and purchasing interest declined, curbing production activity. On the other hand, industry leaders like Baowu and Shougang kept base prices unchanged in July, prioritizing price stability, but bearish sentiment persisted, making prices more likely to fall than rise. Most producers were loss-making and cut production autonomously. Demand side, in the home appliance sector, enterprises slowed their production pace, with orders falling MoM. The 618 shopping festival provided no significant order stimulus. Affected by low demand, high inventory, and high costs, some enterprises cut their production schedules ahead of schedule, and the implementation of new energy efficiency standards for some appliance products led to model upgrades that restricted production. In the automotive sector, automakers generally maintained normal production paces, with some increasing production schedules this month to meet mid-year targets. However, the sales promotions of the 618 festival and policies yielded limited boosting effects, and sales pressure persisted. Breaking it down, NEVs remained the main sales driver this month, orders for internal combustion engine vehicles showed no significant improvement, and exports were mainly directed to markets such as Russia, South America, and Southeast Asia, with the industry's full-year export volume expected to reach 12 million units. Cost side, with steel mill profits continuing to shrink and expectations of normalized local environmental protection-driven production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to continue to pull back. But as the off-season impact expands, the average hot-rolled coil price in July is expected to decline further MoM from June, though the extent of the decline will narrow. In summary, SMM expects that prices for low and mid-end non-oriented silicon steel will drift lower overall in July 2026, with some room for price reductions.

Price Review for June: In June, the monthly average price of non-oriented silicon steel trended downward, probing the bottom. Supply-demand side, the market shifted from a slight balance to a mild undersupply, with fundamentals improving marginally. The oversupply that had been weighing on prices gradually eased, providing support for prices. Spot prices performed stronger than expected, edging down only slightly. As a transitional month between the off-season and peak season, June saw the supply-demand pattern improve. Fundamentals Analysis: The July production schedule for domestic non-oriented silicon steel is planned to decline further. Compared with the same period in previous years, the July 2026 schedule was lower than that of July 2025. In terms of grade structure, the proportion of NEV grades in the July schedule is expected to rebound to 15%, high grades at 19%, and low and mid-end grades pull back to 66%. Steel mills continue to adjust their product mix, leading to corresponding reductions in low-end conventional grades. Overall scheduled production volume continues to shrink, but supply-side pressure persists. Production levels for NEV and high-grade materials are maintained, while low and mid-end grades are significantly reduced, optimizing the supply structure to some extent and supporting price resilience. Downstream demand for non-oriented silicon steel in May showed structural divergence. Total silicon steel consumption in the home appliance sector edged down MoM, with air conditioners remaining the core demand driver. The automobile sector demand was strong, with silicon steel consumption climbing to a high for the period. Within this, passenger NEVs were the biggest support for non-oriented silicon steel demand in the auto sector. Overall, traditional home appliance demand weakened marginally, while NEV demand continued to strengthen, gradually shifting the demand center toward the auto track. This structurally benefited high-grade and NEV-grade non-oriented silicon steel. July Price Outlook: Looking ahead to July 2026, on the supply side, China's non-oriented silicon steel production schedule is planned to decline further, primarily in low and mid-end grades. On one hand, the off-season impact is becoming more pronounced: downstream demand is weak, purchasing enthusiasm has fallen, weighing on production willingness. On the other hand, leading producers such as Baowu and Shougang kept their July base prices unchanged, prioritizing price stability. However, market sentiment is bearish and prices are more likely to fall than rise. Most producers are operating at a loss and implementing voluntary production cuts. On the demand side, in the home appliance industry, producers slowed their production pace, with orders declining MoM. The "618" shopping festival did not significantly stimulate orders. Affected by low demand, high inventory, and high costs, some enterprises lowered their production schedules ahead of time. Additionally, new energy efficiency standards for certain home appliances were introduced, limiting production due to product iteration. In the automobile industry, automakers mostly maintained normal production pace, with some increasing output this month to meet mid-year targets. However, sales pressure remained due to moderate effects of the "618" promotions and policy support. Breaking it down, NEVs remained the main sales driver this month, while orders for internal combustion engine vehicles did not improve significantly. Exports were mainly directed to Russia, South America, and Southeast Asia. Total annual export volume for the industry is expected to reach 12 million units. Cost side, with steel mill profits continuing to shrink and local environmental protection-driven production restrictions becoming normalized, hot metal production is expected to decline further. However, as the impact of the off-season expands, the July average hot-rolled coil price is expected to decline further MoM from June, with the decrease narrowing. Overall, SMM expects that mid- and low-grade non-oriented silicon steel prices in July 2026 will drift lower as a whole, with room for price declines. Data Source Statement: (All data in this report, other than publicly available information, are based on publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, NBS data, customs import and export data, and various data released by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database models. The research team has conducted comprehensive analysis and made reasonable inferences, which are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the right of final interpretation of the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement in accordance with actual conditions.

ChinaIOL data shows that in June 2026, China’s household air conditioner production totaled 17.76 million units, down 5.4% YoY; sales reached 18.195 million units, down 7.3% YoY. Of which, exports were 6.794 million units, down 7.1% YoY; domestic sales were 11.402 million units, down 7.4% YoY. According to the data, the market remains on a downward trajectory, but the overall decline is narrowing, and both domestic sales and exports are showing signs of recovery. Domestic Sales Market: Boosted by the 618 Shopping Festival, Downward Trend Narrows In the domestic sales market, the decline in household air conditioner shipments noticeably narrowed in June, mainly boosted by the 618 shopping festival, which helped destock online inventory and prompted some restocking among enterprises. However, terminal market performance during 618 still fell short of previous years. On the cost side, prices remained high and fluctuated, while end-user prices were still locked in fierce competition. Sales of mid- to high-end products have declined to some extent this year, the overall price structure of the market has been shifting downward, and enterprise profitability is facing considerable pressure. With June ending, some listed home appliance companies are about to release semi-annual reports, and driven by the pressure of financial reporting, enterprises are likely to sell more aggressively in June in an effort to give a good account to the market. Cumulative domestic sales in January–June reached 62.822 million units, down 5.6% YoY. As the data indicates, the overall domestic sales market in H1 remained under pressure, coming from persistently high costs and inventories on the one hand, and from the phasing out of state subsidies and diminishing marginal returns on the other. Consumers who have been ‘educated’ by low prices now have longer and more cautious purchasing cycles, which feeds back into the market as price involution across the industry. In such an environment, the industry is undergoing a new wave of reshuffling, and enterprises without orders or with poor profitability will be eliminated from the market. Export Market: Decline Narrowing in Sync, Localized Heatwaves Facilitate Destocking In the export market, although some regional markets have seen a partial recovery, exports still fell 7.1% YoY and 10.4% MoM. The dual decline was mainly due to some regions entering the off-season, coupled with accumulated inventory pressure, making overseas dealers less willing to restock. As high temperatures overseas gradually subside, market sales will slowly taper off, and the export scale is expected to return to around 5 million units by July. This is also part of the seasonal structural changes in household air conditioners; as the export off-season sets in, the focus will gradually shift back to the domestic sales market. Cumulative exports in January–June reached 52.703 million units, down 6.8% YoY. In H1 this year, the household air conditioner export market exhibited regional divergence and uneven recovery, with climate, inventory, economic, and policy cycle mismatches being the core influencing factors, while aftershocks of geopolitical conflicts and differing national policies further amplified market uncertainty. In addition, climate trends, inventory cycles, the pace of economic recovery, and changes in trade and energy efficiency policies in core countries vary across regions. Taking Europe as an example, the booming Western European market contrasts with the sluggish Eastern European market. Moreover, the data does not fully represent the overall market picture, and the characteristics of different markets need to be considered. The Western European market is dominated by rental housing, and coupled with local installation policy restrictions, extreme heat has boosted sales of portable air conditioners. In addition, market expectations regarding the weather are also driving growth. However, structural divergence remains pronounced. According to ChinaIOL, the inventory of split-type air conditioners in the Western European market is still saturated, and installation difficulties and environmental protection restrictions have been constraining the growth of split-type units.

Overall, the supply-demand fundamentals of the prebaked anode market are expected to remain stable in H2, but against the backdrop of continuous new capacity release, industry competition may intensify, and price trends will be more influenced by cost-side disruptions and downstream procurement pace.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the passenger vehicle market maintained structural divergence in June 2026. Domestic demand remained under pressure while exports posted robust growth. Sales of fuel vehicles slumped markedly amid volatile high oil prices, whereas new energy vehicles sustained steady growth with their market share further climbing. In June 2026, passenger vehicle output reached 2.373 million units and sales hit 2.402 million units, rising 5.9% and 6.6% month-on-month, yet falling 2.8% and 5.3% year-on-year respectively. For the first six months of 2026, cumulative production and sales of passenger vehicles stood at 12.721 million units and 12.72 million units, down 5.9% and 6% year-on-year.

Supply Side: Lower Year-on-Year Operating Rates, Extended Spring Festival Holiday Restricting Capacity Output.The overall supply of the zinc oxide industry in H1 2026 was characterized by "shrinking output and weak operating rates".

SMM, July 12: In the first half of 2026, China's aluminum extrusion industry presented an extreme pattern of structural divergence. Traditional construction extrusion demand remained persistently weak, dragging down the industry’s overall operating load, while industrial extrusion maintained high prosperity, underpinned by new energy, power, and heat dissipation sectors, serving as the core pillar of the industry. Meanwhile, linked volatility in aluminum prices intensified both in and outside China, with the price spread repeatedly narrowing. The export market experienced a "deep V-shaped recovery" trajectory, and the overall industry performance was characterized by "weak recovery in domestic demand, initial suppression followed by recovery in overseas demand, and a stark contrast between strong and weak structural segments." 1. Extrusion Operating Rates: Construction Extrusion Continued to Drag, Industrial Extrusion Resilience Supported the Industry After the 2026 Chinese New Year, the industry entered its traditional peak season for resuming work. In March, extrusion enterprises concentrated on production resumptions and downstream clients engaged in concentrated restocking, pushing the industry's composite operating rate to its H1 peak of 50.6%. Entering Q2, genuine downstream demand follow-through was insufficient, raw material prices fluctuated at high levels, and the industry was further impacted by the rainy season in south China and environmental protection inspections in some regions. As a result, the industry operating rate continued to pull back mildly, falling to 47.6% in June, with the overall operating level weaker than the average for the same period over the past three years. Construction extrusion was the core weak spot dragging down the industry’s overall operations. In H1, data on commercial housing transactions and new construction starts in China remained persistently weak; developers' financial positions showed no significant improvement, and payment returns from project sites were slow. Orders for housing construction-related doors, windows, and curtain wall extrusions continued to shrink. From January to May, domestic aluminum prices generally consolidated at highs, and downstream end-users exhibited strong resistance to high-priced raw materials. Traders and processing plants generally maintained low inventory levels, moving goods in and out quickly, with low willingness to initiate restocking. Although the industry actively expanded non-residential construction demand from industrial parks, standard factories, and government and enterprise public buildings, and home decoration for existing home renovations and home decoration retail recovered slightly, the incremental volume was limited, completely failing to offset the decline in bulk project orders. In H1, construction extrusion operations remained under pressure, making it the biggest drag on the industry. The structural prosperity of the industrial extrusion segment continued to rise, strongly underpinning the industry's operating rates. Demand for power transmission and transformation, energy storage structural components, industrial heat dissipation extrusions, and rail transit supporting profiles maintained steady growth. For PV extrusion, affected by the official cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for PV-related products on April 1, overseas clients concentrated on front-loading orders and enterprises rushed to meet production deadlines in Q1, driving the operating rates for PV frames and mounting extrusions to stage a temporary surge. After the policy took effect, the bonus from overseas rush orders faded, and PV extrusion production schedules returned to rationality, maintaining stable operation from April to June. NEV extrusions showed structural divergence: demand for lightweight extrusions for auto body and chassis remained robust, while demand for ordinary interior extrusions weakened. Overall, the resonance of prosperity across multiple industrial extrusion tracks effectively offset the weak demand for traditional construction materials, highlighting the structural resilience of the industry. 2. Aluminum Extrusion Exports: Deeply Under Pressure in Q1, Continuous Recovery in Q2, V-Shaped Reversal in H1 In H1 2026, China's aluminum extrusion exports followed a V-shaped trend overall, with a sharp decline in Q1 followed by consecutive recoveries in Q2. The driving logic shifted from price inversions and off-season effects overseas at the beginning of the year, towards the release of demand in emerging markets and the transfer of China's processing and manufacturing advantages. Q1: Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Price Inversions Combined with Overseas Off-Season Led to Sharply Weaker Exports Exports from January to February showed off-season resilience, mainly supported by deliveries for orders placed ahead of the Chinese New Year. In January, China exported 81,000 mt of aluminum extrusions, up slightly by 1.4% MoM but down slightly by 5.3% YoY. In February, disruptions from the Chinese New Year holiday saw exports fall to 64,000 mt, a 20.4% MoM decrease but a sharp 62% YoY increase, significantly outperforming the precipitous declines of past Chinese New Year periods. The core reason was that secondary aluminum extrusion enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian concentrated on delivering orders for Southeast Asia and the Middle East before the holiday, while some industrial extrusion enterprises adopted a model of "preliminary domestic processing and deep processing overseas" to speed up contract fulfillment, supporting export volumes at the start of the year. In March, industry exports hit their low point for the first half of the year, with monthly exports of only 48,000 mt, down 24.8% MoM and plunging 32.8% YoY. The core reason for this export slump was not a single geopolitical factor but the resonance of multiple negative factors: first, orders placed ahead of the Chinese New Year overdrew demand from February and March, after which overseas markets entered the traditional consumption off-season; second, LME aluminum saw wild swings in March, and domestic and overseas aluminum prices quickly inverted, compressing export profits for domestic extrusions and leading enterprises to proactively control volumes and take fewer orders; third, the European and US CBAM carbon tariff continued to suppress high-end extrusion exports, causing continuous market shrinkage there, coupled with a slowdown in logistics and customs clearance in some Middle Eastern regions. These multiple factors caused a substantial pullback in export volumes in March. Q2: Emerging Market Volume Surge, Exports See Double YoY and MoM Growth for Two Consecutive Months Starting in April, the price spread between China and overseas markets gradually recovered, the overseas off-season ended, and industry exports began a continuous recovery channel. Exports that month were 76,000 mt, surging 56.8% MoM and up 6.9% YoY, returning to the normal range for past years. Trade and logistics order in the Middle East recovered, stockpiling in Southeast Asia ahead of the rainy season began, and domestic enterprises accelerated their layout in emerging markets in Central Asia and Latin America. Leveraging overseas affiliated warehouses and cross-border stockpiling models to continuously take on rigid demand orders for overseas doors, windows, and curtain walls, export prosperity recovered rapidly. Exports in May continued their high-growth momentum, hitting the monthly peak for H1 at 87,000 mt, up 14.6% MoM and 20.1% YoY. The export structure continued to optimize; low-end construction extrusions saw steady incremental growth, while the export share of high-value-added industrial aluminum components, outdoor aluminum semis, and PV supporting extrusions continued to rise. Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Central Asia became the four core growth markets for domestic extrusion exports, effectively offsetting the shrinking demand in European and US markets. 3. H2 2026 Industry Outlook: Weakly Stable Domestic Demand, Marginal Export Weakness, Continued Structural Divergence Looking ahead to H2 2026, the structural divergence pattern in China's aluminum extrusion industry is expected to become further entrenched, with overall operations characterized by "consolidation on a subdued note, industrial support, and construction material drag." On the domestic demand side, the fundamentals of the real estate sector are hard-pressed to see a substantive repair in the short term. Commercial housing new starts and project payment returns are expected to remain weak, and construction extrusion demand will continue to operate in a low range without a trending recovery. Non-residential infrastructure and home decoration retail can only provide a slight offset, unable to reverse the overall weakness of construction extrusions. Industrial extrusion will remain the core pillar of the industry: in H2, steady climbing of domestic PV installations will drive the continued release of demand for PV frames and mounting extrusions; demand for new-type energy storage, data center heat dissipation, and power equipment extrusions will maintain steady incremental growth. NEV extrusions will show a divergence between strong and weak segments; demand for high-end lightweight structural components will be firm, but overall industry overcapacity and intensifying end-user competition will exert marginal contraction pressure on demand for ordinary automotive extrusions. Overall, industrial extrusion can defend the industry’s baseline but can hardly offset the downward pressure from construction extrusions. In H2, the industry's overall operating rate may be slightly lower than in H1. Pressure on the export front will gradually emerge, with the trend potentially turning from the high growth of Q2 to a mild slowdown. In H2, the bonus from overseas traditional peak seasons will gradually fade, while the domestic-overseas aluminum price spread narrows, export processing profits are compressed, and overseas local aluminum processing capacity continues to be released, alongside persistent trade barriers against Chinese aluminum semis in some countries. This will gradually weaken the price advantage of domestic extrusion exports. Although secondary aluminum extrusion exports may still hold cost advantages, homogenized competition in low-end products is fierce and profits remain compressed. The export growth rate for aluminum extrusions is expected to slow down gradually in H2, with overall volumes weaker than in Q2. In summary, throughout 2026, the aluminum extrusion industry is expected to continuously exhibit structural characteristics of weak construction, strong industrial, stable but weak domestic demand, and exports that are high in the first half and low in the second. Industry competition will further concentrate on high-end industrial extrusion, high-value-added deep processing, and overseas emerging markets, with low-end construction extrusion capacity continuously entering a phase of being cleared.