According to SMM, copper prices surged this week, significantly suppressing new order intake in the copper plate/sheet and strip industry. However, thanks to ample backlog orders accumulated in the earlier period, industry production demonstrated strong resilience. Demand orders from core downstream sectors such as power, new energy, and electronics remained generally stable, supporting full production schedules for most enterprises. As a result, the industry's operating rate continued to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Dual Pressure from Policy and Demand, Secondary Aluminum Weekly Operating Rate Pulls Back] ADC12 prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. On the cost side, high-level support, combined with the tightening of reverse invoicing and expectations for production cuts at some enterprises, limits the downside room for prices; however, demand is unlikely to see significant improvement in the short term, and inventory remains in an accumulation cycle, which will continue to suppress upside room for prices. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the recovery of end-use consumption and the further impact of policies on the scale of production cuts on the supply side.

[SMM Analysis]Policy Intensified Supply Contraction Supporting ADC12 Price Rebound, but Weak Demand Capped Upside Potential

[Ex-China Supply Disruptions Combined with Macro Recovery Strengthen Upside Momentum for Aluminum Prices] The risk of ex-China aluminum supply disruptions has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing has restricted aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and a weakening spot market will limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. However, since April, China's export orders have remained positive, and combined with recent macro tailwinds, a turning point in China's social inventory is expected to emerge, boosting upside momentum for aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Fluctuated Higher in Night Session, Cost Support Kept Short-Term Bias to the Upside] The most-traded aluminum alloy 2607 contract opened higher overnight and then fluctuated upward. It opened at 23,605 yuan/mt in the night session, reaching a high of 23,680 yuan/mt and a low of 23,480 yuan/mt. It closed at 23,595 yuan/mt in the night session, up 115 yuan/mt or 0.49% from the previous trading day.

[SMM Analysis] After Sulfur Breaks Through $1,200: How Far Is the Ceiling? — The Ultimate Game Under International Supply Disruptions, Discussing China's Sulfur Policies and International Supplementary Supply Pathways

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tightening Supply Sources Combined with Pullback in Imports, Tight Aluminum Scrap Circulation Underpins Prices] Aluminum alloy 2607 in the night session exhibited an overall trend of "retreat after rapid rise, hover at lows." From the intraday perspective...

[SMM Analysis: Stripping Away Macro Noise: Analysis of the Substantive Impact of Peru's Emergency Decree on Tin Supply]

[SMM Steel] Hyundai Steel and POSCO’s US joint venture awarded SMS Group a contract to supply rolling mill equipment for its new greenfield steel plant in Louisiana. The project includes a hot strip mill, pickling line tandem cold mill, acid regeneration plant, and AMOVA logistics systems. The plant is scheduled to start operations in 2029 with total steel product capacity of 2.8 million mt. The facility will focus on high-grade automotive steel, with annual cold rolled coil output expected to reach nearly 2 million mt.