This week, lead smelters still indicated that lead concentrate TCs had yet to see a substantive rebound. However, market quotes for silver-bearing lead concentrates with negative TCs had already decreased significantly. Smelters generally remained on the sidelines and purchased cautiously. Coupled with weak fundamentals in the refined lead market, smelters showed low willingness to stock up on raw materials. Silver prices fluctuated within a range and consolidated. After bullish sentiment cooled, apart from slight reductions in the highest quotes for certain silver concentrates or high-silver lead ore with silver content above 2,000 g/mt in physical content, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with other silver content levels generally remained stable.

Following the Chinese New Year holiday, the electrolytic copper market has entered its traditional post-holiday resumption validation period. The Yangtze River Delta region, as the national core for copper processing and consumption, serves as a bellwether for assessing supply-demand dynamics through the operating rates and raw material procurement pace of its leading enterprises. Our survey indicates that the region is currently characterized by "excessively high inventory accumulation, a divergence in resumption rates, and cautiously recovering procurement sentiment," leading to a downward revision of market expectations for the start of the peak season in March. According to SMM research, as of February 26, 2026, social inventories of electrolytic copper stood at 531,700 metric tons, an increase of 178,100 metric tons from February 12. This pace of inventory buildup significantly exceeds levels seen in previous years. The Yangtze River Delta region contributed the bulk of this increase: inventories in Shanghai rose to 305,800 metric tons, while Jiangsu Province reached 93,100 metric tons, up by 97,500 metric tons and 45,200 metric tons respectively from February 12. This round of inventory accumulation is characterized as "passive delivery into warehouses." As the first trading day after the holiday (February 25) coincided with the last trading day for the SHFE 2602 contract, smelters concentrated their deliverable cargoes into exchange-designated warehouses just before the holiday. This led to an increase of 80,400 metric tons in SHFE copper warrants, bringing the total to 277,100 metric tons, a portion temporarily locked in the form of warrants. Concurrently, with the narrowing of import losses and the emergence of a profit window before the holiday, arrivals of imported copper in March are expected to increase, putting dual pressure on domestic social inventories from both domestic production and imported supply. Based on operational feedback from enterprises, downstream processing sectors in the Yangtze River Delta exhibit significant contrasting dynamics: The battery materials sector maintains robust performance. Copper foil producers either had short production stoppages or operated continuously during the holiday. Downstream battery manufacturers are running at high utilization rates, with some reporting that their March production schedules already display peak-season characteristics. This sustains rigid demand for purchasing electrolytic copper. In contrast, the resumption of operations in the traditional cable and copper processing sectors is sluggish. Performance in traditional copper-consuming segments like wire and cable, copper rod, and copper tube is relatively weak. In the first week after the holiday, leading cable companies saw a decline in new orders. Apart from high copper prices dampening downstream acceptance, the fact that end-user projects have not yet fully commenced is a major constraint. According to enterprise feedback, construction and infrastructure projects typically resume gradually after the Lantern Festival (which falls after the standard holiday), and the market is currently in a lull for new orders. Copper rod processors generally have high finished goods inventory, and some orders from before the holiday are still pending delivery. Consequently, their procurement of electrolytic copper primarily focuses on consuming existing inventory and making ad-hoc spot purchases based on immediate needs, showing a weak willingness to stock up on raw materials. Overall, downstream consumption in the region currently presents a pattern of rigid demand from the battery sector versus pending demand from the cable sector. The transmission of genuine end-user consumption to the electrolytic copper procurement stage will still require time. According to information obtained by SMM through communication with enterprises: Enterprise 1: Normal operations resumed on the 6th day of the first lunar month. The downstream battery industry is operating at a high utilization rate; current copper foil production has increased from 20% to approximately 50% compared to previous levels. However, the wire and cable sector has seen relatively few new orders recently. The main reasons are persistently high copper prices, and, consistent with previous years, end-user projects typically do not fully commence until after the Lantern Festival, leading to a temporary lag in demand transmission. Enterprise 2: The company reached full production capacity immediately after resuming work on the 6th day of the first lunar month, requiring approximately 1,000 tons of electrolytic copper daily. Raw material inventory is maintained at a reasonable level, adopting a cautious procurement strategy of daily spot purchases. However, finished goods inventory is higher than before the holiday, with some pre-holiday orders still pending delivery. Regarding downstream orders, pre-holiday withdrawals were relatively concentrated, while the performance of new orders after the holiday is weak, as some downstream customers have yet to restart operations. Enterprise 3: Production workshops ran continuously during the Chinese New Year. Recently, production has remained stable, with orders from key clients holding steady. Raw material inventory is kept at a low level, and electrolytic copper purchases are made based on order volume. However, the volume of recent spot purchases has decreased compared to the previous period. Enterprise 4: Recently, there has been a decrease in new downstream orders, resulting in sluggish market transactions. Pressure from finished goods inventory is not significant, but some pre-holiday orders are still awaiting delivery. Raw material inventory is maintained within a normal and manageable range. On February 24, the Purchasing Sentiment Index recorded 2.08, remaining in a weak range, indicating low enthusiasm among downstream companies for market inquiries in the first week after the holiday. Subsequently, it recovered day by day to 2.58 on February 26. Over the same period, the Shipment Sentiment Index rose from 2.09 on February 24 to 2.80 on February 26, showing a continuous upward trend and consistently remaining higher than the Purchasing Sentiment Index. H istorical data can be queried in the database. This reflects that, as the resumption of work progresses, some rigid demand has begun to emerge, with certain downstream companies entering the market for inquiries. However, the absolute levels remain low, indicating limited acceptance of current copper prices among downstream users. Their stocking strategy remains predominantly "hand-to-mouth procurement." Holders, under pressure from high inventories, exhibit a strong willingness to liquidate, while market transactions are primarily circulating within the trading sphere, with genuine downstream offtake yet to pick up significantly. Looking ahead, the unexpected inventory accumulation has already triggered a market correction to previous supply-demand expectations. In the short term, social inventories in the Yangtze River Delta region still face pressures from two fronts: first, the arrival of imported copper resources, and second, the need for time to digest high downstream finished goods inventories. Channels for inventory outflow are also obstructed, with LME inventories continuing to climb and maintaining a Contango structure, making it difficult to absorb the domestic surplus. A positive factor on the supply side lies in the concentrated maintenance window for domestic smelters during March-May in the first half of the year, with substantial impacts expected to emerge starting in April. If demand-side support materializes by then, an inventory drawdown cycle could potentially commence between late March and April. However, due to the exceptionally high post-holiday inventory starting point, even entering a destocking phase is unlikely to replicate the high BACK structure and high premiums seen during the same periods in previous years. Overall, the post-holiday resumption in the Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by high inventory levels, cautious procurement, and pending orders. The market is now awaiting the substantive return of end-user orders after the Lantern Festival. The short-term price-driving logic may shift from validation of "expected destocking" to "actual destocking."

[SMM Hot Topic: From "Scale" to "Quality" – The Shift and Restructuring of Traditional Construction Steel Demand] From 2026 to 2030, the domestic demographic dividend will gradually shrink, and the era of rapid growth in the real estate industry will come to an end, with the industry's development logic shifting from scale expansion to quality improvement.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Aluminum Prices Edged Up Overnight as US-Iran Tensions Briefly Escalated] Overall, the short-term volatility risks in SHFE aluminum and nonferrous metals markets have increased significantly. Prices may continue to be affected by factors such as the US Fed's policy shift, and further amplification of fluctuations cannot be ruled out. It is essential to closely monitor market dynamics and regulatory policy changes, conduct trading rationally and in compliance, and prudently manage positions and risks.

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary: This week, the spot price of refined cobalt maintained a fluctuating trend. On the supply side, due to the slightly lower economic efficiency of refined cobalt production, the operating rate of smelters remained low, resulting in a slight decline in the supply of refined cobalt. On the demand side, influenced by the policy-related news from the DRC, some smelters and traders reported an increased willingness of downstream producers to inquire about prices. However, currently, most buyers and sellers are still in the negotiation stage, and overall market transactions remain weak. It is expected that before the official implementation of the policy, the spot price of refined cobalt will likely continue to fluctuate.

[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Fluctuate Downward, Suppliers Unwilling to Stockpile Excessively] As of June 5, copper prices rose by 300 yuan/mt, with the price of bare bright copper in Guangdong also increasing by 300 yuan/mt. Amid the doldrums of copper prices this week, many suppliers of secondary copper raw materials adopted a "quick in, quick out" strategy to sell their goods. Consequently, secondary copper rod enterprises reported a continued improvement in raw material procurement compared to WoW. Moreover, as the delivery date for orders approached, the destocking speed of raw materials at secondary copper rod enterprises accelerated...

》Check SMM copper quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo SMM May 27 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 78,240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums/discounts were 150 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of secondary copper raw materials remained unchanged MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 72,700-72,900 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 943 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,080 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises, considering the approaching Dragon Boat Festival holiday, will stock up on 1-2 days' worth of raw material inventory. However, due to the minimal change in copper prices, the shipments from suppliers were relatively small, resulting in generally moderate procurement of secondary copper rod raw materials.

The 2025 SMM (3rd) Wire and Cable Industry Development Conference & Wire and Cable Industry Exhibition concluded successfully! SMM, May 26: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE copper and SHFE lead rising together. SHFE copper rose by 0.57%, and SHFE lead rose by 0.12%. SHFE zinc fell by 0.52%, while the rest of the metals dropped slightly. The main alumina contract fell by 3.77%, recording three consecutive days of decline. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 2.31%, reaching a new low of 59,920 yuan/mt during the session, the lowest since its futures listing. The main polysilicon contract fell by 3.92%. The main silicon metal contract fell by 3.67%, hitting a record low of 7,605 yuan/mt during the session since its listing. The main European container shipping contract fell by 5.81%. The ferrous metals series declined collectively. Iron ore and HRC both fell by over 2%, with iron ore dropping by 2.21% and HRC by 2.03%, while rebar fell by 1.67%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal fell by 1.96%, and coke fell by 1.72%. In the overseas metal market, the LME metal market was closed for the day due to the Spring Bank Holiday. In precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell by 0.78%, while COMEX silver rose by 0.26%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.29%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.49%. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view the SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Developments: [8 Departments: Cultivate Around 100 National Leading Enterprises in Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains by 2030] Eight departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the State Taxation Administration, and the National Data Administration, recently jointly issued the "Special Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of Digital and Intelligent Supply Chains." The "Action Plan" makes forward-looking, comprehensive, and systematic arrangements for the development of digital and intelligent supply chains. It proposes the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and blockchain to promote the digital, intelligent, and visual transformation of supply chains with a "one-chain-one-policy" approach. By 2030, a replicable and scalable model for the construction and development of digital and intelligent supply chains will be formed. A deeply embedded, smart, efficient, and autonomous and controllable digital and intelligent supply chain system will be basically established in important industries and key areas. Around 100 national leading enterprises in digital and intelligent supply chains will be cultivated, further enhancing the resilience and security level of China's industrial and supply chains. [PBOC Net Injection of 247 Billion Yuan in Open Market Operations] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 382 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. With 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations maturing today, a net injection of 247 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 26 was 7.1833 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell by 0.29% to 98.81. According to CCTV News, on the 25th (local time), US President Trump stated that the EU had requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline until July 9, and he had agreed to this request. Previously, on the 23rd, Trump posted on social media suggesting a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1. The annualized total of new home sales in the US in April was 743,000 units, the highest since February 2022. The market had previously expected 693,000 units, with the revised figure for March being 670,000 units and the initial estimate being 724,000 units. Builders have reduced prices to attract buyers, but rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainty remain unfavourable factors for the housing market. Federal Reserve Governor Cook pointed out on Friday that the high tariffs announced by the US government last month triggered financial market volatility but did not lead to a severe US market failure like that during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, she added that this experience would help "us continuously improve our ongoing assessment of the stability of the financial system." Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC that US companies want to see consistent trade policies before making major investments or other decisions, and that President Trump's new threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU imports is a "terrible" proposal for the supply chain. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Macro: Today, the revised reading of the leading indicator change for Japan in March and the year-on-year rate of Spain's PPI in April will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a commencement address at Princeton University's graduation ceremony, and ECB President Lagarde will speak at the Hertie School in Berlin. On May 26 (Monday), due to the Memorial Day holiday in the US and the Spring Bank Holiday in the UK, trading hours in the financial markets will be adjusted. The holiday arrangements for overseas exchanges are as follows (all in Beijing time): 》Public holidays in the UK and US today, holiday arrangements for overseas exchanges at a glance Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude oil up 0.29% and Brent crude oil up 0.23%. This follows the extension of the deadline for trade negotiations between the US and the EU by US President Trump, alleviating concerns that US tariffs on the EU could harm the global economy and fuel demand. "Crude oil and US stock index futures surged this morning after US President Trump extended the deadline," said Tony Sycamore, an IG market analyst. Sycamore noted that trade and tariff news, along with ongoing fiscal concerns, would be the main uncertainties affecting risk sentiment and crude oil prices this week. In its closely watched report, US energy services firm Baker Hughes said that the number of oil and natural gas rigs operated by US energy firms fell for the fourth consecutive week this week, reaching the lowest level since November 2021. Data showed that the total number of US oil and natural gas rigs, a leading indicator of future production, decreased by 10 to 566 in the week ending May 23, marking the largest weekly decline since September 2023. It was also the first time since September 2024 that the number of active US oil and natural gas rigs had declined for four consecutive weeks. Baker Hughes said this brought the total number of active rigs down by 34, or 6%, YoY. Oil price gains were capped by expectations that OPEC+, which consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, might decide to increase July's oil production by another 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting next week. Suvro Sarkar, chief energy analyst at DBS Bank, said that oil was already under pressure from OPEC's strategy of accelerating production increases and a "mini oil price war." He added, "OPEC+'s decision in the coming days could curb oil price gains." This month, it was reported that OPEC+ might scrap the remaining voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million bpd by the end of October, after having already raised its production targets for April, May, and June by about 1 million bpd. Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, wrote in a report to clients that OPEC+'s decision to increase production should keep the market well-supplied in the second half of the year. (Comprehensive report from Wenhua) SMM Daily Review ► RMB Exchange Rate Rises, Immediate Losses on Imported ADC12 Narrow Again [Daily Review of ADC12 Prices] ► Manganese Plants Maintain Firm Pricing Sentiment, Spot Prices Remain Stable [SMM EMM Daily Review] ► Silver Prices Test Previous Highs, Downstream Buyers Stock Up at Lower Levels, Trading Sentiment Moderate [SMM Daily Review]

[SMM Daily Review: Market Transaction Prices Rise, Short-Term Prices May Recover Upward] On May 23, the average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 951 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), up 2 yuan/mtu from the previous working day...

This week, the stainless steel market saw a simultaneous decline in production costs and spot prices. However, the drop in costs was smaller than that in spot prices, exacerbating the losses between production costs and selling prices. Taking 304 cold-rolled stainless steel as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the cash cost only increased slightly by 11.71 yuan/mt this week, with the loss ratio expanding to 5.77%. If calculated based on raw material inventory costs, although the cash cost decreased by 130.82 yuan/mt, the loss ratio still reached 5.43%. Regarding the cost of nickel-based raw materials, the price of high-grade NPI had already fallen below the smelting cost line in Indonesia in the early stage, leaving limited room for further significant price reductions. Additionally, as Indonesia gradually enters the rainy season, the tight supply of nickel ore may intensify. Despite the fact that the loose supply situation of high-grade NPI is unlikely to change completely in the short term, driven by cost support and the demand for some traders to stock up at low prices, the price of high-grade NPI stopped falling and began to rebound this week. As of Friday, the price of high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% had increased by a cumulative 9.5 yuan/mtu, reaching 951 yuan/mtu. During the same period, the price of stainless steel scrap dropped slightly along with the price of finished stainless steel products. Compared with high-grade NPI, its economic efficiency was clearly at a disadvantage, with downstream purchase willingness remaining low and mainly driven by immediate needs. As of Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in east China had fallen by a cumulative 50 yuan/mt, with the quoted price dropping to 9,950 yuan/mt. In terms of the cost of chrome-based raw materials, the high-carbon ferrochrome tender price for June announced by Tsingshan Group was 8,095 yuan per 50 base tons, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. During the week, the retail spot price of ferrochrome continued to decline, gradually approaching the tender price. Currently, the retail price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia is basically in line with the tender price. As south China enters the rainy season, the operating rate of ferrochrome enterprises has increased, leading to a significant rise in market supply and abundant spot cargo availability. Against the backdrop of the off-season for stainless steel consumption, losses in stainless steel enterprises, and planned production cuts, ferrochrome prices are expected to remain weak. Data shows that the price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia fell by 25 yuan per 50 base tons this week, with the latest quoted price at 8,050 yuan per 50 base tons. Overall, as the impact of macro factors on the stainless steel market gradually fades, the imbalance caused by insufficient demand has become increasingly prominent. Although stainless steel enterprises continue to face pressure from losses, relying solely on cost support is insufficient to reverse the weak market trend. Currently, news of production cuts by stainless steel mills has emerged in the market. Given the already ample supply of high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome, it is expected that the smelting cost of stainless steel will further decline.