SMM July 3 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE lead led the gains with a 0.19% increase, SHFE copper rose 0.12%, LME lead rose 0.11%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.09%. LME tin led the losses with a 0.91% drop, SHFE tin fell 0.85%, and declines in other metals were relatively small. The most-traded alumina contract fell 1.73%, while cast aluminum rose 0.67%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led the losses with a 1.34% drop, while rebar and HRC fell around 0.4%. As for coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.07%, and coke rose 1.15%. In precious metals overnight, all rose. COMEX gold rose 1.3%, and COMEX silver rose 1.54%. On the domestic market, SHFE gold rose 1.18%, and SHFE silver rose 1.53%. As of 6:38 am on July 3, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [National Energy Administration: Vigorously Promote the Exploration and Development of Deep Coalbed Methane] On July 1, the National Energy Administration held a special meeting on deep coalbed methane exploration and development in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that the core task is to ensure national energy security, vigorously promote the exploration and development of deep coalbed methane, and continuously consolidate the foundation of energy supply. The meeting emphasized the implementation of relevant plans. It called for the issuance and implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" for coalbed methane (coal mine gas) development and utilization, as well as action plans for increasing reserves and production in key regions, with tasks detailed to each enterprise and each coalbed methane block, increasing investment in exploration and development, and accelerating the construction of key projects. (National Energy Administration) [Liu Gang of the NDRC Led a Team to Conduct Work Research at Xiaomi Group] Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), led a team to conduct work research at Xiaomi Group. The research covered the price trends of NEVs and mobile phones, sought to understand the main issues facing the industry, and solicited opinions and suggestions on standardizing the automotive industry’s practices and promoting orderly competition. (NDRC Price Monitoring Center) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.54% to 100.86. The US economy added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, below Wall Street expectations. After three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected employment growth, the slowdown in June hiring prompted the market to lower expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the 129,000 jobs added in June, revised down from May, represented a sharp decline, and was also below the 115,000 forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The report marked a significant cooling in the labour market following three months of better-than-expected job gains. While job growth decelerated, it remained well above the 2025 target of 10,000 new jobs per month on average. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3% in May. The US dollar weakened as investors scaled back bets on further Fed rate hikes. Futures traders now expect the Fed to raise rates in December. Previously, the market had anticipated a rate hike in October. (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research report stated that the US added 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, below market expectations, indicating that the acceleration in job growth has cooled. After downward revisions to previous months, the average job gains over the past three months still reached 111,000, suggesting that the labour market remains expansionary. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, and the labour force participation rate continued to decline, reflecting steady labour demand alongside a shrinking labour supply, with overall unemployment pressure relatively low. We believe this data gives the Fed time to wait and watch, thus we maintain the view that there will be neither a rate hike nor a rate cut this year. In the medium term, the improvement in US employment this year is driven more by AI investment-led economic cycle repair rather than short-term factors like the World Cup. This means that if aggregate demand continues to expand under the boost of AI, the possibility of the Fed resuming rate hikes next year cannot be ruled out. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in July is 82.4%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 17.6%. For the September meeting, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 46.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 45.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 7.6%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the Macro Front: Today, data including China's June RatingDog Services PMI, French May industrial production month-on-month, the final June Services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be released. In addition, China will open a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products. ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate in an economic forum, and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. Notably, on July 3, US markets—NYSE will be closed for the US Independence Day holiday. CME will close trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and stock index futures contracts early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4 for the Independence Day holiday. ICE will close Brent crude oil futures trading early at 01:30 Beijing time on July 4 for the Independence Day holiday. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 0.17% and Brent crude down 0.01%, as buyers sought to secure supply ahead of the US Independence Day long weekend. Since Saudi Arabia resumed loading operations in the Persian Gulf, its crude oil exports have surged to roughly pre-war levels. This further indicates that regional producers' supply is recovering following the temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran. Bloomberg-compiled tanker tracking data showed that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, averaged 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports in the six days through Wednesday. That export level is comparable to the 2025 average and has reached nearly 90% of the pre-war February level, when Saudi and its Gulf neighbours ramped up supply. (from Wallstreetcn APP) Since Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loading and unloading in the Persian Gulf, its crude oil exports have surged to near pre-war levels, further evidence that regional oil supply is recovering after the US-Iran temporary peace agreement. Bloomberg-compiled tanker tracking data showed that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, shipped an average of 6.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in the six days through Wednesday. That shipping volume is roughly on par with the 2025 average and has reached nearly 90% of the February level. In February, before the Iran war broke out, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours had significantly increased oil supply. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM April 11 News: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper rose 1.04%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.32%, SHFE lead fell 0.54%. SHFE zinc fell 0.59%. SHFE tin fell 0.09%. SHFE nickel fell 0.04%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.15%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum continuous contract rose 0.59%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, stainless steel rose 2.01%, rebar fell 0.03%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.06%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 0.19%, coke fell 0.18%. Last Friday's overnight overseas market metals: LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.27%. LME aluminum rose 1.8%, LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.89%. LME nickel rose 0.44%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.98%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.95% weekly gain; COMEX silver fell 0.54%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 4.25% weekly gain. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold fell 0.12%, posting a two-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 1.22% weekly gain; SHFE silver rose 1.47%, posting a three-week winning streak on a weekly basis with a 3.65% weekly gain. Institutions including ANZ and Goldman Sachs stated that even as Middle East conflicts disrupted markets, gold is still likely to rebound in the long term. Analysts at these institutions believe that resilient central bank demand, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts, and diversification away from US dollar-denominated assets all provide reasons for long-term bullishness. ANZ analysts Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said prices are expected to eventually rebound, as the deteriorating macro combination of economic growth and inflation paves the way for central banks to resume cutting interest rates. ANZ maintained its outlook, forecasting gold prices to reach $5,800 by year-end. Analysts wrote that central bank gold purchases are expected to remain a key support pillar, with official purchases in 2026 estimated at around 850 mt. ANZ's bullish stance echoes similar forecasts from Goldman Sachs and RBC made in early March. Goldman Sachs maintained its $5,400 forecast, citing continued central bank gold purchases and expectations of a 50-basis-point US Fed interest rate cut this year. Goldman Sachs analysts previously stated that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, gold still faces tactical downside risks in the short term. However, prolonged conflict could accelerate diversification away from traditional Western assets, supporting gold prices in the long term. (Jin10 Data) As of 8:31 AM on April 11, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang Chairs Symposium on Economic Situation with Experts and Entrepreneurs] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs on the afternoon of April 10, hearing opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation and the next steps for economic work. Li Qiang emphasized the need to promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, catering to people's needs throughout their entire life cycle and enterprises' needs across the entire process of production and operation. He called for thorough implementation of the service industry capacity expansion and quality improvement initiative, coordinating development and regulation, and cultivating more "China Services" brands. At the same time, he stressed the need to deepen and expand "AI+," accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, and support the overall upgrading of the industrial system through deep integration and mutual empowerment of advanced manufacturing and modern services. Greater efforts should be made to promote employment and income growth for urban and rural residents, tap into employment potential across various channels and sectors, vigorously cultivate new occupations and positions, promote shifts in employment concepts and enhancement of vocational skills, formulate and implement income growth plans for urban and rural residents, and strengthen the virtuous cycle of resident income growth, domestic demand expansion, and economic development. (Xinhua News Agency) [Preview: The State Council Information Office Will Hold a Press Conference on April 14 to Brief on Import and Export Performance in Q1 2026] The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on April 14, 2026 (Tuesday), inviting Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, to brief on import and export performance in Q1 2026 and answer questions from reporters. [MIIT: Accelerate Building an Efficient and Unified AI Chip Computing Interconnection Ecosystem and Resolutely Eliminate "Involution-style" Competition in the PV Industry] The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 2026 National High-Quality Development Conference for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry on April 10 in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The conference emphasized adhering to a value-oriented approach, promoting high-quality development of the advanced computing industry, accelerating the building of an efficient and unified AI chip computing interconnection ecosystem, and driving the industry chain toward higher-value segments. It also stressed adhering to a problem-oriented approach, carefully analyzing the current challenges facing the industry, proposing targeted development roadmaps, resolutely eliminating "involution-style" competition in the PV industry, and enhancing the resilience and security of key industry chains and supply chains. [CSRC: Launch More ChiNext-related ETFs and Options, and Introduce ChiNext Stock Index Futures in Due Course] A spokesperson of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the Opinions on Deepening ChiNext Reform to Better Serve the Development of New Quality Productive Forces, which mentioned enriching the product and service system. This includes optimizing the compilation of ChiNext-related indices, launching more ChiNext-related ETFs and options, introducing ChiNext stock index futures in due course, supporting fund advisory services in allocating ChiNext ETFs, incorporating ChiNext ETFs into the fund platform for transfer, better meeting the asset allocation and risk management needs of different investors, and enhancing investment convenience and attractiveness. [The Nationwide Mine Safety Risk Monitoring and Early Warning "Single Network" Has Been Basically Established] According to the Q1 regular press conference held by the National Mine Safety Administration, the nationwide mine safety risk monitoring and early warning "single network" has been basically established. Safety sensing data from all coal mines in normal production and construction, open-pit mines with high and steep slopes, tailings ponds, and 84% of non-coal underground mines in normal production and construction have been fully integrated into the national mine safety risk monitoring and early warning system. (Xinhua News Agency) [SSE: The Price Limit Ratio for Risk-Flagged Stocks on the Main Board Adjusted from 5% to 10%] The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) publicly solicited opinions on the revision of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Trading Rules. The revision mainly includes the following: First, the scope of securities eligible for after-hours fixed-price trading was expanded from STAR Market stocks to all A-shares and exchange-traded open-end funds. The adjustment helps meet investors' demand for trading at closing prices, extends trading hours for related products, and facilitates the entry of medium and long-term capital into the market. Second, the trading method during the closing session for funds was changed from continuous auction to closing call auction, with the closing price determined through call auction, consistent with SSE-listed stocks. Third, adaptive revisions were made in line with rule changes and business needs, adjusting the price limit ratio for risk-flagged stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, refining rule language, and optimizing provisions on disciplinary actions. (Jin10 Data) [New Energy Power and Generation in Five Southern Provinces Hit Record Highs] According to China Southern Power Grid, new energy power and generation across the five provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan recently hit record highs. The maximum power generation capacity exceeded 100 million kW for the first time, with daily power generation reaching 1.4 billion kWh, accounting for 30% of total daily power generation. (Xinhua News Agency) US Dollar: Last Friday, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous four trading days, falling another 0.11% to close at 98.69. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted a second consecutive weekly decline, down 1.49% for the week. US inflation surged sharply in March, with the war with Iran driving gasoline prices to their largest single-month gain since 1967, significantly intensifying overall price pressures. Data released Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% MoM, in line with market expectations, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022; it rose 3.3% YoY, accelerating significantly from February's 2.4% and hitting the highest level since 2024. Gasoline prices posted their largest single-month gain on record since 1967, almost single-handedly driving the overall monthly increase , contributing nearly three-quarters of the monthly gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose only 0.2% MoM, below the market expectation of 0.3%, offering some relief to the market and boosting short-term interest rate cut bets. However, economists warned that the second-round effects of this energy shock had not yet been fully reflected in core inflation, and April data faced the risk of further increases. The US dollar fell after the data release. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged from 53.3 in March to 47.6, hitting a record low. The current conditions index fell to 50.1, hitting a record low; the expectations index dropped to its weakest level since 1980; and the perception of current financial conditions tied the worst reading since 2009. Consumers expected prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year. This figure surged 1 percentage point from March, marking the largest single-month increase since Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes a year ago. San Francisco Fed President Daly (2027 FOMC voter): Bringing inflation down to 2% is critically important, but doing so at the expense of employment would put households in a difficult position. US economic fundamentals are "solid," and the labour market is more stable. Risks to the US Fed's goals of full employment and inflation are balanced. It is necessary to watch how the conflict evolves and how enterprises pass through price increases. Policy is sufficiently restrictive to exert downward pressure on inflation, while also sufficiently balanced to support a stable labour market. Policy is in a good place, giving us more time to observe how the conflict resolves and how oil prices change. High CPI data would not surprise anyone. The real question is whether the ceasefire can hold — if it does, the high CPI will become "old news." (Wallstreetcn) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include: US March existing home sales annualized total, US March NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US March PPI YoY, US March PPI MoM, China March trade balance in US dollars, China March trade balance, France March CPI MoM final, Eurozone February industrial output MoM, Canada February wholesale sales MoM, US April NY Fed Manufacturing Index, US March import price index MoM, US April NAHB Housing Market Index, Australia March seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, China March total retail sales of consumer goods, China March industrial value added of enterprises above designated size, UK February three-month GDP MoM, UK February manufacturing output MoM, UK February seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK February industrial output MoM, Eurozone March CPI YoY final, Eurozone March CPI MoM final, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial output MoM, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, and Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. In addition, other events to watch this week included: the State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, where Vice Minister of the General Administration of Customs Wang Jun briefed on Q1 2026 import and export performance and answered questions from reporters; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank held their Spring Meetings, running through April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo visited the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and International Monetary and Financial Committee meetings; the IMF released its World Economic Outlook report; the US Fed Board of Governors hosted "Strengthening the US Economy Through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; Bank of England Governor Bailey participated in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a panel discussion ahead of the Semafor 2026 World Economy Conference; US Fed Governor Barr delivered opening remarks at the working forum hosted by the US Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulsen, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and US Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the US Fed Board of Governors' working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech; the National Energy Administration released total electricity consumption data around the 15th of the month; US Fed Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance forum; the US Fed released the Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of the IMF meetings; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivered a speech; the Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivered a speech. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: Last Friday, both oil futures fell overnight, with WTI down 2.29% and Brent down 1.73%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 14.26% for the week, while Brent fell 13.55%. The market focused on progress in US-Iran peace talks. , crude oil futures prices saw relatively small changes as traders were about to head into the weekend, while the US and Iran plan to hold talks that could determine whether a ceasefire in the Middle East can be sustained. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said: "Traders have basically pulled out of the market. The $7 fluctuations like yesterday seem to have occurred with very few human traders involved. All they were doing was necessary hedging or cleaning up positions to further reduce risk exposure." He also said: "Maybe after this weekend, we'll have a clearer picture of whether the gap between Iran and the US is too wide to reach a deal." (Jinshi Data) Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) said on its social media on the 10th that only 4 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, including one Iranian tanker and one Russian tanker. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies cut oil and gas rigs for the third time in four weeks. A senior White House official said that skepticism pervaded the White House. The official said that Trump appeared to have acknowledged in recent conversations with advisors that the Strait of Hormuz was unlikely to fully reopen in the short term. However, at the same time, Trump posted on social media on Thursday that oil supply would be restored soon, but he did not elaborate further. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will lend 8.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to four companies. Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council: Gasoline prices are very high at present. I hope the surge in gasoline prices will not affect other areas. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): As of the week ending April 7, speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 5,520 contracts to 109,227 contracts. (Jinshi Data) Recommended Reading:

Futures: On Friday evening, LME lead opened at $2,098/mt, fluctuated downward after the opening, and continued to decline during the Asian trading session. It hit a low of $2,036.5/mt before closing, finally settling at $2,038/mt, down by $58.5/mt, or 2.79%. On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened higher with a gap at 17,400 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, it was dragged down by the weakening LME lead, quickly breaking through the support level of 17,300 yuan/mt, then fluctuated and tested the low of 17,200 yuan/mt, finally closing at 17,230 yuan/mt, down by 365 yuan/mt, or 2.07%. This week, the US Supreme Court may rule on the Trump tariff case; the independence of the US Fed will face a major test as the Supreme Court hears the case of Fed Governor Cook; Japan's Prime Minister may dissolve the House of Representatives and hold an early general election, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Several EU countries are considering imposing additional tariffs on 93 billion euros worth of US goods exported to Europe, or restricting access for US enterprises to the EU market, in retaliation against President Trump's tariffs on eight European countries for his interest in Greenland. The renewed tariff threats between the US and Europe led to a significant rise in gold and silver prices, while stock index futures fell by 1%. On Monday's opening, spot gold and silver opened higher with a gap. According to the announcement by the People's Bank of China, starting from January 19, the relending and rediscounting rates were cut by 0.25 percentage points. The CSRC held the 2026 system work conference, emphasizing the need to maintain stability and consolidate the positive momentum in the market. Spot fundamentals: In Shanghai, Honglu lead was quoted at premiums of 80 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2602 contract. After SHFE lead pulled back from its high, suppliers adjusted their quotations according to the market, mainly offering cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters. Spot lead was generally quoted at discounts, with mainstream production areas quoting 60-0 yuan/mt below the SMM #1 lead average price. Secondary lead smelters had high inventories, and secondary refined lead was quoted at 300-100 yuan/mt below the SMM #1 lead average price. In some regions, smog warnings were issued, leading to partial production restrictions for lead smelters, which is expected to ease the pressure on suppliers to sell. Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment, few inquiries, and most enterprises focusing on digesting inventories, resulting in persistently weak transactions in the spot market. Inventory: On January 16, LME lead inventory decreased by 5,050 mt to 206,350 mt. As of January 15, the social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM showed an upward trend. Today's lead price forecast: For primary lead, smelters are undergoing both maintenance and resumption, but the current market has ample circulating supplies, making it difficult to improve the situation of discount transactions in the spot market. For secondary lead, smog warnings in some regions have led to production cuts, temporarily easing the pressure on smelters to sell. However, before lead consumption improves, the extent of discounts for secondary lead is expected to be limited. In January, consumption in the lead-acid battery market, the largest segment being the e-bike lead-acid battery market, weakened, with demand from downstream enterprises declining, and inventories at smelters and social warehouses accumulating simultaneously, while spot discounts widened. With macroeconomic positives exhausted, and amid a general decline in non-ferrous metals last Friday night, lead prices nearly erased all gains from the previous week. In an environment of weak consumption, lead prices are likely to remain in the doldrums this week.