[SMM Steel] Quang Ngai Province and VNSTEEL held discussions on potential steel investment projects in the Dung Quat Economic Zone. Provincial authorities highlighted Dung Quat’s advantages, including its deep-water port infrastructure and established steel industry ecosystem, while indicating readiness to allocate around 15 hectares of land for projects with annual capacities of 500,000-1 million tonnes. The province also pledged support through tax incentives, land policies, and streamlined administrative procedures to attract steel investments and strengthen Vietnam’s steel supply chain.

Following the formal announcement by India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, the India–Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will take effect on 1 June 2026. Market attention has largely focused on the surface-level benefit that “Oman will exempt an average 5% import tariff on 98% of Indian export goods.”

[Lacking Drivers for Wild Swings, GO Silicon Steel Prices Expected to Run Steadily Next Week] Cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel spot prices ran steadily this week, with mainstream quotations remaining firm and overall transactions proceeding in a stable and orderly manner. According to market feedback, although ferrous metals futures fluctuated downward, exerting some pressure on market sentiment, Baosteel's price-firming policy for June—raising the base price of GO silicon steel by 200 yuan/mt and adding an additional 100 yuan/mt for high-grade products rated 75 and above—effectively supported the spot price floor. Traders' quotations were generally stable, with limited willingness to sell at low prices.

SMM has been deeply engaged in the metal industry for decades, consistently upholding the principles of objectivity, neutrality, pragmatism, and rigor. By adhering to actual market transactions as the core pricing benchmark and leveraging its well-established price assessment methodology and comprehensive data system, SMM continues to deliver standardized market benchmarks for participants across the industry chain. This provides solid support for industry pricing standards, transaction settlements, and business decision-making, serving as a long-term partner in the steady development of the metal industry.

[Intensified Competition Due to Loose Supply, Non-Oriented Silicon Steel May Run Stable Next Week] According to market surveys, traders gradually resumed production after the holiday, but spot transactions were sluggish, with merchants mainly following up on orders left over from before the holiday. Meanwhile, arriving resources continued to replenish after the holiday, social inventory accumulated steadily, and spot supply was relatively sufficient. Currently, the downstream motor and home appliance industries are gradually entering the traditional demand off-season. Combined with supply fluctuating at highs, competition among various brands of silicon steel intensified, end-user purchase willingness remained weak, and spot prices encountered resistance obviously.

【SMM Steel】Polish steel group Cognor Holding raised rebar prices nearly 20% effective early 2026 amid a gradual market recovery and EU regulatory changes. The company expects steps to partially offset 2025 losses and improve financial results in coming quarters. A collapse in rebar prices due to Chinese dumping and weak European demand led to revenue falling >9% y/y to PLN2.08bn. Cognor expects operating metrics to improve in Q1 2026 and a return to profitability in Q2. EU regulatory changes, including CBAM and new market protection tools, could reduce external steel supply by ~50%, supporting capacity utilization and price stabilization.

Cost Support & Fundamental Improvement: Hot-Rolled Coil Prices Continued to Strengthen in April As of April 30, the most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,425 points, up 131 points MoM from March 31. In April, SMM's national average spot price for hot-rolled coil was 3,321.78 yuan/mt, up 54.91 yuan/mt MoM (1.68%). HRC prices continued to rise in April, mainly due to relatively stable cost support. Additionally, since the start of April, on one hand, semi-finished products export orders were robust, with some steel mills prioritizing delivery of semi-finished product orders, thereby easing supply pressure in the HRC market; on the other hand, amid the peak season, HRC demand release was strong, driving rapid HRC inventory drawdown and significantly easing supply-demand imbalances. Before mid-May, HRC prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs; in late May, attention turns to export support and the extent of demand pullback Fundamentals, few new maintenance shutdowns have been announced so far, and May HRC production is expected to rebound MoM. However, considering that some steel mills are still actively delivering earlier semi-finished product and HRC export orders, the supply rebound pressure is expected to be manageable. Demand side, the average apparent demand for HRC tracked by SMM in April was 3.3961 million mt, up 7.52% MoM and down 2.19% YoY. Since the start of April, HRC demand climbed rapidly, mainly driven by a simultaneous rebound in export orders and domestic downstream demand in China. For May, historically apparent demand for the five major steel products tends to peak and pull back around Labour Day holiday. Combined with weakening domestic trade demand in some downstream industries, further upside room for May HRC demand is expected to be limited, with overall demand likely edging down slightly MoM from April, and apparent demand levels falling below the same period last year. In the short term, downstream restocking demand expectations remain after the Labour Day holiday, coupled with expectations of a third round of coke price increases, and HRC prices are expected to fluctuate at highs for 1–2 weeks after the holiday. From mid-to-late May, steel demand faces challenges as the traditional peak season winds down, and the steel supply-demand imbalance may widen MoM, limiting further upside room for steel prices. Other aspects, attention should be paid to export order support and the extent of domestic demand pullback.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

Geopolitical conflicts surrounding Iran have significantly disrupted steel shipments, deeply impacting the Middle East steel supply chain. Consequently, average billet prices in the Persian Gulf countries—the primary importers of Iranian billets, including Oman, the UAE, and Qatar—surged by $79 in March to hit $523 per metric ton (CFR). This record increase, which reached an $80/t spike in certain Gulf areas, is attributed to severe logistical constraints and escalating freight rates. Although there is no overall global billet shortage, the immediate supply impact and the time needed to redirect global supply flows have temporarily constrained regional availability and elevated market prices.

As of April 28, the operating rate of 50 major construction steel electric furnace steel mills nationwide was 40.2%, down 1.2% WoW; capacity utilization rate was 41.7%, down 0.84% WoW; daily average construction steel production was 92,800 mt, down 1,900 mt WoW. During the survey period (April 21–April 28), two electric furnace mills in South China and Central China slightly reduced operating hours, while another Central China electric furnace mill implemented production shutdown and maintenance due to poor production profitability, causing the nationwide electric furnace operating rate to drop 1.2% WoW. Overall, electric furnace mill profitability has diverged at this stage. Some electric furnace mills were dragged down by high raw material and electricity costs, with production profitability under pressure. These mills have proactively reduced operating hours, driving construction steel supply to pull back WoW. Some electric furnace mills still plan to reduce operating hours next week, so electric furnace operating rates are expected to continue declining.