Shandong mines and beneficiation plants' tax-inclusive, dry basis offer for 64% Fe alkaline fines is 817, up 3. Steel mills raised accordingly. Miners are mostly operating normally; some have inventory accumulation, but most face little inventory pressure. Sales from small plants and traders are average. Recently, steel mills have mainly been purchasing as needed. Domestic iron ore's cost-effectiveness is relatively weak, and overall the desire to push for lower prices is relatively strong. In the short term, local iron ore concentrate transactions are average. Recently, imported iron ore supply has been relatively ample, coupled with the weak trend in iron ore futures. Affected by this, it is estimated that local iron ore concentrate prices may show weak consolidation in the short term. [SMM Steel]

Today, DCE iron ore futures trended firm, pulling back slightly in the afternoon. The I2609 contract closed at 738 yuan/mt, up 0.14% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose 2–3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in quoting, steel mills purchased as needed, buying interest was moderate, and as of now, spot transaction volumes were relatively low. Looking ahead, with the downstream entering the off-season and mine shipment pace slowing down, the iron ore supply side is expected to tighten slightly, but the overall ample supply pattern is unlikely to change. Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 35.16 million mt, up 1.53% WoW, and cumulatively up 1.77% YoY. Among them, Australia's shipments edged down 6% WoW, but Brazil's shipments surged nearly 20% WoW, while shipments from non-mainstream countries edged up MoM. Among the four major miners, Rio Tinto and FMG saw shipment declines. In addition, last week, SMM China iron ore arrivals totaled 28.78 million mt, down 1.88% WoW, and cumulatively up 6.07% YoY. Based on comprehensive analysis, iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate within a range in the near term, but the bearish pattern will persist in the long term. [SMM Steel]

July planned rebar production was 7.428 million mt, down 389,700 mt or 4.98% from actual June production; July daily rebar output was 239,600 mt, down 8.05% MoM. July planned wire rod production was 3.197 million mt, up 18,700 mt or 0.59% from actual June production; however, July daily wire rod output was 103,100 mt, down 2.66% MoM. July long-product export schedule for the sample steel mills was 653,000 mt, a MoM decrease of 41,000 mt, of which billet export schedule was 350,000 mt, a MoM decrease of 30,000 mt.

In July, the planned rebar production was 7.428 million mt, down 389,700 mt from June's actual production, a decrease of 4.98%. Average daily output of rebar in July stood at 239,600 mt, down 8.05% MoM. In July, the planned wire rod production was 3.197 million mt, up 18,700 mt from June's actual production, an increase of 0.59%. However, the average daily output of wire rod in July was 103,100 mt, down 2.66% MoM. In July, the sample steel mills' long product export schedule reached 653,000 mt, down 41,000 mt MoM. Among this, the steel billet export schedule was 350,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

[Vietnam] ASEAN hot-rolled coil (HRC) import offers ticked down to 535 USD/tonne CFR this week amid limited demand. As Vietnamese domestic steel mills aggressively slashed their ex-works prices, local buyers heavily prioritized higher-value domestic resources over imports, leaving the import market slow. Last week, major domestic producers Hoa Phat and Formosa Ha Tinh both cut their HRC prices by 33-34 USD/tonne, bringing Hoa Phat’s target prices for large buyers down to 535-537 USD/tonne CIF and Formosa Ha Tinh’s September shipment offers to 546-556 USD/tonne. This compression forced import prices lower; Indian HRC deals were concluded at 535-540 USD/tonne CFR, while Indonesian HRC was quoted at 525-535 USD/tonne CFR, both failing to attract transactions. In the slab segment, Asian prices also weakened, with an Indonesian mill cutting August shipment offers to 490-495 USD/tonne FOB and a Vietnamese mill quoting 490 USD/tonne FOB, while Chinese-origin slabs stood around 465 USD/tonne FOB. Meanwhile, tightened EU finished steel quotas are expected to prompt European seaborne buyers to look to Asia for semi-finished steel alternatives.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Bottom Out, Stainless Steel Market Inquiry Activity Picks Up According to SMM on July 6, SS futures overall bottomed out during the session. The SS futures dropped sharply in the Friday night session but quickly recovered after the Monday daytime session opened. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning stainless steel quotes were subdued by the Friday night decline, with overall offers on the low side. As futures surged, spot quotes were also restored in tandem. Market inquiry activity picked up notably, though transactions were mostly concentrated on low-priced cargoes. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 245-795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; cold-rolled trimmed edge 304/2B coil average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the tug-of-war between macro factors and industry fundamentals dominated futures movements. US inflation data pulled back, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, the US dollar...

[July 6 Morning Briefing] The US added 57,000 nonfarm jobs in June, below market expectations of an increase of 110,000. The combined job gains for April and May were revised down by 74,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged to the 128,000 yuan/mt level in early trading before pulling back slightly, and by the end of the morning session it was reported at 127,190 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. The US nonfarm payrolls report came in surprisingly weak, leading the market to turn more cautious on the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled markedly, and the US dollar fell sharply, providing a catalyst for a rebound in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI fell WoW by 13.3 yuan/nickel unit to 1,133.7 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the average price of the Indonesian NPI FOB index fell WoW by $0.31/nickel unit to $146.69/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market remained in the doldrums under a supply-demand tug-of-war and persistently sluggish trading, with prices under pressure overall.

This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

SMM News Release, July 3 Domestic molybdenum market saw a trend of correction at the start of June, rally in mid-month and narrow high-level fluctuations at month-end, with mainstream products posting modest gains throughout the month.