Five major Japanese steel associations issued a joint statement criticizing the EU's new steel import regime effective July 1, which has significantly curtailed market access for Japanese steel. The new system roughly halves total TRQs from the previous safeguard regime and raises the out-of-quota duty to 50%, reducing Japan's country-specific quota to approximately 800,000t — well below its 2022-2024 average annual EU exports of around 1.5 million tonnes. The associations also criticized the EU's September 2025 final anti-dumping duties on Japanese hot-rolled flat steel, arguing that the investigation failed to adequately account for the trade-restrictive impact of the July 2024 safeguard tightening, and expressed concern over a separate ongoing AD investigation into cold-rolled flat steel. Describing the measures as inconsistent with the Japan-EU EPA and potentially in breach of WTO rules, the associations urged the Japanese government to pursue early resolution through available dispute settlement mechanisms.

US Steel has selected direct reduction technology developer Midrex to supply a 2.5 million mt/year HDRI/HBI MIDREX® Plant for its new DRI facility at Big River Steel in Osceola, Arkansas, which is expected to start production in 2029. According to Midrex, the project marks a key milestone for the North American steel industry, as it will be the first DRI facility in the US to integrate with EAF steelmaking and be supported by a domestic DRI-grade pellet supply chain.

This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

As of the latest data, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,017/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,496/mt Co. The MHP payables (against the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 80-81, and the MHP cobalt payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt, Rotterdam warehouse) is 95. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,143/mt Ni.

On July 3, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged lower.

★Macro★ 01 ★★ [State-owned Major Bank's 5-Year Personal Certificate of Deposit 'Reappears' with Annualized Interest Rate of 1.6%] Although over the past two years, mainstream major state-owned banks and joint-stock banks ceased issuing certificates of deposit with terms over 3 years. But just as H2 began, a state-owned major bank reintroduced them. On July 1, Bank of China announced on its official website that it would issue the first tranche of personal certificates of deposit for 2026, offering seven terms: 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year. As long-term certificates of deposit issued by nationwide commercial banks have largely disappeared from the market, the issuance by Bank of China this time means that 5-year certificate of deposit products from state-owned major banks 'reappear.' 02 ★★ [Central Bank: Net Injection of 200 Billion Yuan via Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) in June] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on its official website today the liquidity injection through various central bank tools for June 2026. Data showed that in June, net injection via MLF was 200 billion yuan, net injection via standing lending facility (SLF) was 0 yuan, and net injection via other structural monetary policy tools was -137.2 billion yuan. Meanwhile, in open market operations, in June, net injection via government bond trading in the open market was 10 billion yuan, net injection via 7-day reverse repo was 582.6 billion yuan, net injection via central treasury cash management was 0 yuan, and net injection via reverse repos of other tenors was 300 billion yuan. ★Industry and Downstream★ 01 ★★ [NDRC's Liu Gang Leads Team to China Iron and Steel Association for Work Survey] To gain an in-depth understanding of the steel industry's development, on June 29, Liu Gang, Deputy Director of the NDRC Price Monitoring Center, led a team to CISA to conduct a work survey, and held discussions with Diao Li, Deputy Secretary General and Director of the Information and Statistics Department of CISA, as well as Li Xiaochuan and Li Baojun, Deputy Directors of the Information and Statistics Department. The two sides, considering the new characteristics of steel industry development at this stage, conducted in-depth exchanges on aspects such as price trends across the industry chain's upstream and downstream, compilation of price indices, and optimization of monitoring indicators. 02 ★★ [2025 Annual Dual-Credit Calculation Results for Chinese Passenger Vehicle Enterprises Released] Four departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration for Market Regulation, recently jointly announced the 2025 average fuel consumption and NEV credit status of Chinese passenger vehicle enterprises. In 2025, a total of 108 passenger vehicle enterprises in China produced/imported 24.629 million passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs, excluding export passenger vehicles), with an actual average fuel consumption under WLTC conditions of 3.38 liters per 100 kilometers, average carbon dioxide emissions of 80.22 grams per kilometer, positive fuel consumption credits of 53.553 million points, negative fuel consumption credits of 9.412 million points, positive NEV credits of 21.94 million points, and negative NEV credits of 1.599 million points. 03 ★★ [Changsha One Commercial-Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 165 Million Yuan] On July 2, Changsha auctioned one commercial-residential plot in Furong District, with a planned GFA of 28,109.20 sq m (commercial-residential ratio of 1:9), a plot ratio of 5, a starting price of 165 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 5,884 yuan per sq m. Finally, the local private enterprise Hunan Dayou Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 165 million yuan. 04 ★★ [Nanjing One Residential Plot Sold at Reserve Price of 570 Million Yuan] On July 2, Nanjing auctioned one residential plot in the Qilin Area of Jiangning District, with a planned GFA of 56,779 sq m, a plot ratio of 2.4, a starting price of 570 million yuan, and a starting floor price of 10,041 yuan per sq m. Finally, Nanjing Science and Technology Innovation Investment Co., Ltd. won the plot at the reserve price of 570 million yuan. 05 ★★ [South Korea Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Carbon Steel and Alloy Steel HRC Involving China] According to China Trade Remedies Information, on June 23, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance issued Order No. 35, officially imposing anti-dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel HRC originating from China and Japan, with the duty rate for Chinese products ranging from 28.16% to 33.10%; meanwhile, it approved the price undertakings proposed by three Japanese enterprises and six Chinese enterprises, and will not impose anti-dumping duties on enterprises that comply with the price undertakings. The announcement took effect on the date of its issuance. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters Launches Level-IV Emergency Response for Flood and Typhoon Prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong] According to meteorological forecasts, the tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to develop into a typhoon on July 2, make landfall on the eastern coast of Hainan Island on the afternoon or evening of July 3, and then make a second landfall on the coast of Guangxi or northern Vietnam on the afternoon or evening of July 4. As a result, it is expected that from July 3 to 5, parts of Hainan Island, Guangdong, and Guangxi will experience heavy to torrential rain, with localized areas seeing extremely heavy downpours. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the National Flood Control and Drought Relief Emergency Plan, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters decided to launch a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong at 12:00 on July 2, and dispatched a working group to Hainan for frontline guidance and assistance. ⭕ [US Treasuries Rise as Weak Employment Report Dampens Rate Hike Expectations] US Treasuries rose after a weaker-than-expected US employment report prompted traders to scale back expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Fed in the coming months. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to monetary policy changes, fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swaps showed that traders expected the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates at its meeting later this month to be around 20%, down from 33% before the data release. The market was pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point rate hikes by March 2027. ⭕ [US June Nonfarm Payrolls Increased by 57,000, Far Below Market Expectations] US nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June (estimate: 113,000; prior: 172,000). Private payrolls rose by 49,000 (prior: 97,000; estimate: 107,000). Manufacturing payrolls increased by 3,000 (prior: a decrease of 2,000), matching expectations; the forecast range of 15 surveyed economists was a decline of 1,000 to an increase of 10,000. ⭕ [Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Exports Approach Pre-War Levels] Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports are near pre-war levels; as of Wednesday, the kingdom exported 6.3 million barrels per day over a six-day period. *This report is an original work and/or compilation work exclusively created by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys the copyright, protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws, regulations, and international treaties. Without written permission, no entity may reproduce, modify, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or license any third party to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to claims for contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. The content contained in this report, including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, images, sounds, videos, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, and any or all other information, is protected by laws such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, and applicable international treaties regarding copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data property rights, and other rights, and is owned or held by SMM and its relevant rights holders. Without written permission, no institution or individual may reproduce, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or license any third party to use it. Otherwise, upon discovery, SMM will take legal action to pursue infringement liability, including but not limited to demanding assumption of contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. The views in this report are based on information gathered from the market and a comprehensive assessment by SMM's research team. The information provided in this report is for reference only, and risks are assumed by the user. This report does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace their own independent judgment with this report. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM. Furthermore, any losses and liabilities arising from unauthorized and illegal use of the views in this report are unrelated to SMM. SMM reserves the right to modify and the final interpretation of the terms of this statement. ​

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel is $15,127/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt is $50,716/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) are 80.5-81.5, and MHP cobalt payables (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) is 95. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte is $15,254/mt Ni.

On July 2, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price declined.

Recently, the steel-coke integrated clean energy project of CIMC Enric in Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province, officially went into operation. Relying on local steel industry resources, the project has achieved efficient and resource-based utilization of coke oven gas, producing fuel cell-grade high-purity hydrogen and clean energy LNG on a large scale, injecting new momentum into the expansion of the hydrogen energy industry and the development of comprehensive clean energy utilization in south-west China. The project, controlled by CIMC Enric and solely invested and constructed by its subsidiary CIMC New Energy (Liupanshui) Technology Co., Ltd., relies on the industrial coke oven gas from Shougang Shuicheng Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. as the core production raw material to specially produce blue LNG and 99.999% high-purity blue hydrogen , achieving green and high-value-added conversion of industrial tail gas. The overall project total investment of 808 million yuan , with a construction period of 12 months and a planned site area of 248 mu. After reaching full production, it is expected to achieve an annual output of approximately 140,000 mt of LNG and annual production of 24 million Nm³ of high-purity hydrogen , with considerable capacity scale and outstanding industrial benefits. It is reported that this project is an important piece in CIMC Enric's integrated steel-coke industry layout. Currently, the enterprise already has two similar projects, at Ansteel Bayuquan and Lingsteel, operating stably. Meanwhile, three new projects are in the early preparation stage. The industry layout covers domestic provinces such as Liaoning, Guizhou, and Sichuan, and extends to overseas markets in Southeast Asia. As of now, the company's total operating integrated steel-coke projects are expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 48 million Nm³ of hydrogen, 420,000 mt of LNG, and 80,000 mt of liquid ammonia, with the advantages of large-scale industrial clusters gradually becoming prominent. The Liupanshui project was implemented entirely relying on CIMC Enric's proprietary core technologies and complete equipment systems. Throughout the entire process of production, liquefaction, storage and transportation, distribution, and end-use applications, it is equipped with the enterprise's self-developed LNG storage tanks, cryogenic liquefaction equipment, hydrogen compression units, and a plant-wide DCS intelligent control system, achieving digitalized and refined control over the entire production chain. Meanwhile, the project received integrated comprehensive construction services from CIMC Enric Engineering Technology Co., Ltd., fully leveraging the company's technical barrier advantages in core processes and key equipment, to create a high-quality, innovative clean energy comprehensive demonstration project, precisely aligning with Guizhou Province's "Rich Ore Refined Development" policy and helping to upgrade and expand the regional clean energy industry. The high-purity hydrogen produced by this project fully meets fuel cell-grade application standards , with significant industrial empowerment value. On the one hand, it can steadily provide low-cost, high-quality hydrogen sources for industrial enterprises in the region such as precious metal processing and semiconductor manufacturing, ensuring the hydrogen demand of local high-end manufacturing industries. On the other hand, it will strongly support the construction of Liupanshui as a hydrogen energy demonstration city, helping to deploy new application scenarios such as gas-hydrogen-electricity integrated energy service stations and hydrogen combined heat and power. The project will also become a core hydrogen supply node in the "Yu-Qian-Gui" Hydrogen Corridor , improving China's industrial by-product hydrogen purification and hydrogen source supply system, and laying a solid foundation for building a cross-regional supply and sales framework of "Guizhou Hydrogen, Guangdong Sales" and establishing channels for the entire hydrogen energy industry chain in the future. Currently, Liupanshui City has built a diversified, multi-scenario hydrogen downstream consumption system, with remarkable results in the commercialization and application of hydrogen energy. Since 2025, 100 49-mt-class hydrogen heavy-duty trucks and 4 8.6-metre hydrogen fuel cell buses have been put into use locally. At the same time, the first hydrogen fuel cell locomotive in south-west China has been deployed and completed trial operation, filling the industrial gap in hydrogen railway freight in south-west China. At this stage, Liupanshui continues to broaden the application boundaries of hydrogen energy, covering heavy-duty truck transport, sanitation operations, cold chain logistics, and railway freight—various livelihood and industrial sectors—while actively exploring cutting-edge application tracks such as hydrogen metallurgy and hydrogen-based chemicals, striving to build a comprehensive and multi-level hydrogen industry ecosystem.

On June 30, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged lower.