New country-by-country quotas reward South Korea's balanced access and Indonesia's hot-rolled position, while Taiwan, China, Vietnam and Turkey face a tighter squeeze once melt-and-pour disclosure rules bite from October 1.

China Steel Market: [Flat Products] Flat-product export prices steady, deals remain hard to close HRC and other flat-product export prices held broadly steady today, with HRC deals at 490-500 USD/tonne FOB. Northeastern mills said deals remain hard to close; North China mills offer lower prices, leaving the Northeast less competitive, with only small-lot transactions done. [Billet] Billet export quotes hold steady, Middle East inquiries up slightly but trading mild Billet export quotes were stable today, with workable FOB offers at 463-465 USD/tonne. The market noted that with geopolitics unsettled and strait passage repeatedly disrupted, Middle East inquiries rose slightly, but Chinese export billet offers held no clear edge; wary of future costs, mills showed limited willingness to discount, leaving trading mild. [Rebar] Rebar export quotes steady, some mills curb orders for maintenance Rebar export quotes were stable today, with workable FOB prices at 481-483 USD/tonne. Traders said export inquiries showed no clear change; some mills are under maintenance and deliberately curbing order intake to safeguard domestic supply. Off-season demand and overseas price pressure kept overall trading weak. International Steel Market: [Southeast Asia] Southeast Asia slab exports soften, Indonesian offers cut Southeast Asian slab trading was thin in June and regional export prices kept falling. Indonesian mills cut August-shipment HRCgrade slab offers to 495 USD/tonne FOB, down 15 USD/tonne week-on-week and 20 USD/tonne from early June on weak sales; Vietnamese slab is offered near 510 USD/tonne FOB with limited deals. On imports, Chinese slab recently traded at 510 USD/tonne CFR, with workable levels now no higher than 500 USD/tonne CFR. [European Union] Off-season and policy wait-and-see leave EU HRC hike unlikely EU local steel demand stayed weak on poor weather and extended summer holidays, pressuring HRC prices lower. Some mills quote around 775-781 USD/tonne EXW, but traders report actual deals are lower and vary by region. Earlier rumors that major mills planned a 57-80 USD/tonne hike in July-August look uncertain given current weakness. Buyers are sidelined, waiting for clarity after July 1, with the near-term outlook still under pressure. [India] India HRC prices hold, weak demand caps deals India's domestic HRC trade prices held this week at about 601 USD/tonne EXW in Mumbai and 617 USD/tonne EXW in Chennai. Monsoon-driven weak demand kept buyers restocking only as needed, with supply-chain inventories high. The market awaits mills' July base-price guidance, with any rise seen limited at about 8 USD/tonne. High prices, high stocks and rising Chinese finished-steel imports left sentiment bearish, with weakness possibly lasting through end-October. [United States] Nucor ends rally, US HRC mill price stays elevated Nucor held its HRC price unchanged this week, the first pause since late January, ending a 22-week run of increases. For the week ended June 29, Nucor's HRC was steady at 1245 USD/tonne EXW and California Steel Industries flat at 1300 USD/tonne EXW. Nucor's lead times are typically 3 to 5 weeks. Citing domestic and overseas HRC price trends and strong demand, Nucor still expects a robust HRC market in the coming months.

[India] Indian domestic HRC trade prices stayed stable, at around 601 USD/tonne EXW Mumbai and 617 USD/tonne EXW Chennai. Monsoon-related weak demand kept buyers focused on need-based restocking, while inventories remained high across the supply chain. Mills may raise July base prices by only around 8 USD/tonne. High prices, elevated stocks and rising Chinese finished steel imports are expected to keep the market bearish until late October.

The UK will implement its final steel trade measures from July, keeping in-quota steel imports duty-free and imposing a 50% tariff on above-quota volumes. UK Steel welcomed the framework, saying it could support domestic resilience, capacity utilisation and investment. However, concerns remain over high quota allocations for galvanized steel, packaging steel and hollow sections. Tata Steel UK said some quota levels may still allow heavy import penetration and pressure domestic producers.

[Iran] Despite the lifting of temporary export restrictions at the end of May, production from major steel mills remains constrained following airstrikes in late March. Driven by limited billet output and persistent domestic shortages, Iranian producers are prioritizing domestic sales, with most shipments sourced from existing stock rather than new production. Last week, slab demand remained weak, with only around 18000 tonnes transacted at an offer price of 462 USD/tonne EXW. As the Strait of Hormuz reopened and logistical constraints eased, coupled with lower ocean freight rates and falling Chinese steel prices, Iran's flat steel imports have increased, pushing imported HRC prices in the Persian Gulf region down to 560-570 USD/tonne CFR. Additionally, a combined shipment of approximately 30000 tonnes of billets and HRC was delivered to Bandar Imam Khomeini (BIK) via Iskenderun, Turkey last week.

[SMM Analysis] China's Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Export Competitiveness Continues to Strengthen, Import Substitution Progress Continues to Advance

The Government of Japan formally announced plans to deploy steep anti-dumping duties targeting imports of nickel-containing cold-rolled stainless steel coils, sheets, and strips from China and Taiwan, effective as early as next month. Following a detailed trade investigation launched in July 2025 after joint industrial complaints from Nippon Steel and Nippon Yakin Kogyo, authorities confirmed that the products were sold at artificially low dumped margins. Ad valorem penalty rates will reach up to 45% for Chinese shipments (including TISCO and POSCO PZSS) and up to 21% for Taiwanese goods

【SMM Steel】Australia's Anti-Dumping Commission initiated an anti-dumping probe on zinc-coated (galvanized) steel from South Korea and Vietnam on June 19, 2026, following an application by local producer BlueScope Steel Limited. The investigation targets five overseas firms: POSCO, Dongkuk Coated Metal, Dongkuk Steel Mill, Hoa Sen Group, and Nam Kim Steel. The dumping probe covers activities from January 1 to December 31, 2025, with injury assessment backdated to January 1, 2022. Involved HS codes: 7210.49.00.55, 7210.49.00.56, 7210.49.00.57, 7210.49.00.58, 7212.30.00.61, 7225.92.00.38, and 7226.99.00.71. The authority will publish the statement of essential facts by October 7, 2026, and deliver the final determination to the Minister for Industry, Innovation and Science by November 23, 2026.

South Korea's Ministry of Strategy and Finance has imposed provisional antidumping (AD) duties ranging from 22.34% to 33.67% on imports of certain Chinese coated steel products with a thickness below 4.75 mm, effective from June 12, 2026, until October 11, 2026. The duties target galvanized, zinc-aluminum, or zinc-aluminum-manganese alloy-coated cold-rolled sheets and coils. Under the company-specific rates, Baogang Steel Union received the lowest duty of 22.34%, Shougang Jingtang was assigned 26.28%, Hong Kong-based Wing Tung Holdings received the highest at 33.67%, and other Chinese producers are subject to 25.75%. This trade defense measure highlights South Korea's aggressive steps to protect its domestic flat steel producers from material injury caused by dumped imports, a move that is likely to sharply reduce the market share of Chinese coated steel in the region and provide a pricing floor for local mills, before potentially being extended into definitive five-year duties.

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India) officially launched Zagnelis Protect during a specialized metal consortium in Chennai. This marks the first domestic production of a premium zinc-aluminium-magnesium (ZAM) coated steel brand tailored explicitly for the automotive sector in India. The product technology, patented by ArcelorMittal and previously available only via European manufacturing lines, addresses a major gap in the South Asian automotive supply chain, where approximately 8% to 10% of critical automotive high-strength steel grades are currently imported due to a lack of advanced local rolling infrastructure.