According to SMM statistics, as of June 5, the inventory of primary aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas stood at 504,000 mt, a decrease of 15,000 mt from the beginning of the week and a decline of 7,000 mt WoW from Thursday. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the overall inventory buildup situation in China remained manageable, and destocking resumed mid-week, highlighting the continued resilience of domestic consumption in early June and the still relatively low supply of aluminum ingots. The inventory buildup during the holiday was particularly pronounced in the Gongyi region, mainly due to the short-term intensive arrivals caused by customers' concentrated shipments at month-end. However, the volume of goods in transit by rail has returned to the level of the second half of May after the holiday, slightly reducing the pressure of arrivals. The Foshan region maintained a status quo of weak supply and demand for aluminum ingots, with a slight and stable decline observed after the holiday. The Wuxi region experienced a slight inventory buildup during the holiday, but it is understood that subsequent shipment plans from aluminum smelters remain relatively low, and the subsequent arrivals are expected to remain at a relatively tight level, with significant destocking observed mid-week again. SMM expects that the overall inventory of aluminum ingots in China will continue to maintain a destocking trend and is likely to break below the 500,000 mt threshold in the near future.

June 4 News: According to SMM statistics, on June 4, the inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong was 206,000 mt; in Wuxi, it was 130,000 mt; and in Gongyi, it was 55,500 mt. The total inventory across these three locations was 391,500 mt, a decrease of 10,500 mt from the previous trading day.

★Macro★ 01 ★★★ [China Real Estate News: From the current situation of the real estate market, the timing for a comprehensive rollout of ready-to-move-in home sales is not yet ripe] An article in China Real Estate News pointed out that recently, the topic of ready-to-move-in home sales has once again become a focal point of attention in the industry and media. Firstly, it stems from a "small article" in a foreign media outlet claiming that "China is considering a nationwide rollout of ready-to-move-in home sales." Secondly, it stems from the statement made by the National Financial Regulatory Administration on May 7 that "a series of financing systems compatible with the new model of real estate development will be accelerated in the near future." Thirdly, a document was issued in Xinyang, Henan Province, requiring that "all commercial housing developments on newly transferred land must be sold as ready-to-move-in homes." As an important part of the new model of real estate development, the pilot work for ready-to-move-in home sales has long been underway. According to agency statistics, at least 30 provinces and cities across the country have issued relevant documents to promote the pilot work of ready-to-move-in home sales, and 18 cities have introduced substantive support measures. From a market perspective, the proportion of ready-to-move-in home sales in commercial residential sales has risen from 12.7% in 2020 to 30.8% in 2024, an increase of 18.1 percentage points over five years, indicating a remarkable pace of advancement. However, from the current situation of the real estate market, the timing for a comprehensive rollout of ready-to-move-in home sales is not yet ripe. 02 ★★ EU Initiates Consultations on Carbon Labels for Steel Products Recently, as part of an impact assessment of different policy options related to the Clean Industry Agreement, the European Commission has launched a public consultation, which includes voluntary labeling to indicate the carbon intensity of steel products. The Industrial Decarbonization Accelerator Act is an important component of the Clean Industry Agreement, aiming to enhance sustainable and resilient industrial production in the EU's energy-intensive industrial sectors by supporting decarbonization investments. Its three main objectives are to accelerate the permitting process for industrial decarbonization; identify and promote priority industrial decarbonization projects and clusters; and the last project will consider introducing sustainability and resilience criteria, as well as minimum EU content requirements, in public procurement (and in some cases, private procurement) in strategic sectors. Its purpose is to create a leading market for low-carbon industrial products. In addition, it will assess the promotion of low-carbon-intensity industrial products, including alternatives to EU labeling. The European Commission stated that this will involve developing a voluntary steel label based on EU Emissions Trading System data and the methodology of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The impact assessment will also consider incentives for adopting clean carbon raw materials, including carbon capture and utilization, sustainable biomass, and recycled waste. The European Commission continued its recent rhetoric of strongly supporting the industrial sector, stating, "If the EU does not take more action, it will maintain the status quo, increase the risk of losing European strategic industries, and become overly dependent on non-EU countries in terms of the EU's green, digital, defense, and economic security goals." ★Industry and Downstream Sectors★ 01 Guangzhou Mortgage Interest Rates Increase by 10BP Today Several banks in Guangzhou have raised the additional points for mortgage interest rates. Reporters learned from some banks and real estate agencies that, starting from May 17, the first-home mortgage interest rate for banks in the Guangzhou area has been adjusted from the original LPR-60bp to LPR-50bp. This means that the first-home mortgage interest rate for loans with a term of over five years has increased by 10BP, from the original 3.0% to 3.1%. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ [China Reduces US Treasury Holdings by $18.9 Billion in March, Dropping to Third Place; UK Rises to Second] Data released by the US Treasury Department on May 16 local time showed that among the top three overseas holders of US Treasuries in March 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings, while China reduced its holdings. China moved from being the second-largest holder of US debt to the third, while the UK became the second-largest holder. March marked the eve of the current round of market turbulence in US Treasuries. According to the US Treasury Department's March 2025 Treasury International Capital (TIC) report, Japan increased its holdings of US Treasuries by $4.9 billion in March, reaching a total of $1,130.8 billion, remaining the largest holder. China reduced its holdings of US Treasuries by $18.9 billion in March to $765.4 billion, marking its first reduction this year. After the reduction, China's holdings of US Treasuries dropped from second to third place. ⭕[Moody's Downgrades US Credit Rating from AAA to AA1] Moody's, an international credit rating agency, announced on the 16th that it had decided to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to an increase in the US government's debt and interest payment ratios. At the same time, it adjusted the outlook for the US sovereign credit rating from "negative" to "stable". Moody's stated that the US federal debt burden is expected to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035, and the US federal government deficit is projected to reach 9% of GDP by 2035. As the economy adjusts in response to tariffs, GDP growth may slow down. ⭕ [CSRC: Increasing Tolerance for Regulatory Oversight of Changes in Financial Conditions, Horizontal Competition, and Related-Party Transactions] The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Decision on Amending the "Measures for the Administration of Major Asset Restructuring of Publicly Listed Firms". The decision increases tolerance for regulatory oversight of changes in financial conditions, horizontal competition, and related-party transactions. The requirement that publicly listed firms must fully explain and disclose that the current transaction is conducive to "improving financial conditions" and "reducing related-party transactions, avoiding horizontal competition, and enhancing independence" for the listed firm has been adjusted to "not causing significant adverse changes in financial conditions, not leading to new horizontal competition with significant adverse impacts, and not resulting in related-party transactions that severely affect independence or are obviously unfair." ⭕ [Ukrainian Official Says Negotiations Yielded No Results] Reporters learned on the 16th local time that the Turkish Foreign Ministry announced the conclusion of the trilateral talks between Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine. Oleksiy Honcharenko, a member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, stated that the negotiations in Istanbul yielded no results. According to Ukrainian sources, as a condition for a ceasefire, the Russian delegation demanded the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia's other demands were also "unacceptable" and far exceeded the scope of previous discussions. Additionally, some sources claimed that the negotiations were only suspended, not concluded. ⭕ [Tata Steel India to Increase Iron Ore Production by 15 Million mt Annually] Recently, Tata Steel India, a steel company, plans to significantly increase production at its oldest mine, Noamundi, which has been in operation for a full century. Through Tata Steel's OMQ (Ore, Mines, and Quarries) division, $1.18 billion will be allocated for this purpose. The company plans to distribute these funds among three mines in Jharkhand: Noamundi, Joda, and Katamati. Consequently, its total capacity is expected to increase from the current 40 million mt per year to 55 million mt per year. ⭕ [General Administration of Customs: China Imported 37.83 Million mt of Coal and Lignite in April] The latest data from the General Administration of Customs show that in April 2025, China exported 720,000 mt of coal and lignite, up 29.8% YoY; from January to April, cumulative exports reached 2.13 million mt, up 9.8% YoY. In April, China exported 550,000 mt of coke and semi-coke, down 40.8% YoY; from January to April, cumulative exports reached 2.32 million mt, down 30.4% YoY. In April, China imported 37.83 million mt of coal and lignite, down 16.4% YoY; from January to April, cumulative imports reached 152.67 million mt, down 5.3% YoY. ⭕ [US Steel Imports Rose 11.6% MoM in March] According to preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce, the US monthly steel imports in March this year increased by 11.6% MoM and decreased by 0.6% YoY, totaling 2,271,358 mt. In terms of value, the total US steel imports in March were $2.61 billion, compared to $2.30 billion in February last year and $2.77 billion in March last year. The major source countries for US steel imports in March included Canada (448,626 mt), Brazil (389,380 mt), Mexico (352,899 mt), South Korea (229,327 mt), Taiwan, China (106,049 mt), and Germany (104,371 mt). ⭕[Successful First Lifting of the Housing for the Rolling Mill in the Zhongshou Special Steel ESP Ultra-thin Strip Production Line Project] At 8 a.m. on May 16, at the site of the Zhongshou Special Steel ESP Ultra-thin Strip Production Line Project, the housing for the R3 roughing mill was successfully hoisted into place, marking the official entry of the project into the core equipment installation phase.

[SMM Weekly Survey on Aluminum Downstream: Aluminum Processing Operating Rate Rebounds Slightly After the Holiday, Sector Differentiation Persists Amid Off-Season] This week, the operating rate of leading enterprises in China's aluminum downstream processing sector increased by 0.3 percentage points WoW to 61.9%.

SMM, May 8: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE lead rising, up 0.24%. The rest of the metals fell, with SHFE copper leading the decline at 0.9%, followed by SHFE zinc, which dropped 0.78%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract rose 3.25%. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 0.77%, the main polysilicon contract rose 2.43%, and the main silicon metal contract fell 0.36%. The main European container shipping contract fell 3.64%. The ferrous metals series declined collectively, with iron ore leading the decline at 2.73%. Rebar and HRC both fell over 1%, with rebar down 1.74% and HRC down 1.18%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coke fell 2.25%, and coking coal fell 2.13%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals, except for LME tin, all declined. LME tin rose 0.46%, LME lead fell 0.79%, LME zinc fell 0.59%, and LME copper fell 0.49%. The rest of the metals declined slightly. In precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 1.7%, and COMEX silver fell 0.84%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 1.41%, and SHFE silver fell 1.78%. Market conditions as of 15:03 today 》Click to view SMM market dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [Zheng Bei, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): High-quality projects with a total investment of about 3 trillion yuan will be launched this year] Zheng Bei, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that the full text of the Private Enterprise Promotion Law embodies the principles of equal treatment, fair competition, equal protection, and common development. The NDRC will focus on promoting implementation in areas such as breaking down barriers, expanding opportunities, and optimizing services. In terms of expanding opportunities, support will be given to private enterprises to actively participate in the "implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas" and the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins." Efforts are being accelerated to improve the long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects. The NDRC has launched a batch of major projects in fields such as nuclear power and railways. Currently, the shareholding ratio of private capital in some nuclear power projects has reached 20%. In the fields of industrial equipment renewal and recycling, the capital contribution of some private enterprises exceeds 80%. Zheng Bei revealed that this year, high-quality projects with a total investment of about 3 trillion yuan will be launched in key areas such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, new-type infrastructure, and urban infrastructure. Zheng Bei also stated that during the legislative process of the Private Economy Promotion Law, the NDRC, in coordination with relevant departments, has planned in advance and simultaneously carried out the formulation, revision, abolition, and interpretation of related systems. A batch of supporting systems have already been issued.She stated that a batch of supporting systems are being accelerated for implementation; meanwhile, in promoting technological innovation, service guarantees, and rights protection, many localities are actively improving relevant supporting measures based on local realities. Click for details [Deputy Director of the Financial Regulatory Administration, Lin Cong: 12.6 trillion yuan in new loans have been issued to small and micro entities through the coordination mechanism supporting small and micro enterprise financing] Deputy Director of the Financial Regulatory Administration, Lin Cong, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the Financial Regulatory Administration has collaborated to create an information sharing mechanism. Offline, the Financial Regulatory Administration, together with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), established a coordination mechanism supporting small and micro enterprise financing, promoting the direct delivery of credit funds to the grassroots level, which is fast, convenient, and at appropriate interest rates. Through this mechanism, 12.6 trillion yuan in new loans have been issued to small and micro entities, with an average interest rate of 3.66%. Online, the promotion of credit information sharing and comprehensive financial service platforms in multiple regions has been driven, allowing data to travel more and enterprises and banks to travel less, supporting banks in issuing credit loans with data information. By the end of Q1, the balance of credit loans for private enterprises was 18.1 trillion yuan, up 15.4% YoY. ► On May 8, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2073 yuan per US dollar. On the US dollar side: As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose 0.3% to 100.18. On May 7 local time, the US Fed released its interest rate decision statement, announcing that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the third consecutive time since January this year that the US Fed has kept rates unchanged. In the latest monetary policy statement, the US Fed stated that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further intensified, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased. At the press conference, Powell denied any idea of preemptive interest rate cuts. When discussing the prospects for rate cuts, Powell said that situations suitable for rate cuts or maintaining the status quo may arise in the future. No predictions can be made now, and we will have to wait until June. Traders expect that the US Fed will cut rates by 77 basis points starting from September this year. (Wenhua Comprehensive) On the data side: Today, Germany's seasonally adjusted industrial production MoM for March, Germany's working-day adjusted industrial production YoY for March, Germany's seasonally adjusted exports MoM for March, the UK's central bank benchmark interest rate for May, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3, the US continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 26, the US wholesale inventories MoM final for March, the US New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for April, and the US New York Fed's 3-year inflation expectations for April will be released.Also to watch: The US Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy; the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. Crude oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose simultaneously, with US crude oil up 0.38% and Brent crude oil up 0.31%. Signs of easing trade tensions improved market sentiment, triggering a rebound in oil prices in an oversold market. However, after the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged but warned of rising economic uncertainty, concerns about weak demand limited the rise in oil prices. Last week, US gasoline inventories increased, exacerbating concerns about weak demand and prompting analysts to worry that consumption would not increase as the US entered the summer demand period later this month. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will increase oil production, adding pressure to oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► [SMM Nickel Ore Daily Review] Prices of overseas mines for Philippine nickel ore ease; tight supply of Indonesia's local ore persists ► The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers continues; spot prices of EMM remain stable for now [SMM EMM Daily Review] ► Silver prices continue to consolidate at high levels; trading activity in the spot market improves [SMM Daily Review] ► Suppliers' quotes are relatively high; actual transactions in the rare earth market remain sluggish [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]

["[US Fed Maintains Status Quo, Highlights Rising Risks of Unemployment and Inflation] The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, emphasizing that it sees increased risks of both rising inflation and unemployment. The FOMC committee stated, 'Uncertainties about the economic outlook have increased further. The Committee is monitoring risks to its dual mandate in both directions and judges that risks of both high unemployment and high inflation have risen.' Officials unanimously voted to maintain interest rates within the 4.25%-4.5% range. The US Fed indicated that it would continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced at the March meeting. Trump's trade policies have sparked a wave of uncertainty throughout the economy. Although tariffs are still under negotiation, economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will drive up inflation and drag down economic growth. This will create an imbalance between the two objectives of policymakers (price stability and maximum employment)."]

The latest interest rate decision by the US Fed will be announced at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, and Powell's press conference will begin at 2:30 AM. The updated economic forecast summary (SEPs) will not be released at this meeting, and the updated forecasts will have to wait until the June meeting. Following the stronger-than-expected April employment report, the market widely expects the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. The money market currently believes there is only a 2% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut at this meeting, while the cumulative expectation for the year is a 72 basis point cut. The focus of this meeting and Powell's press conference will continue to be on the comments and guidance from Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs. However, the Fed is likely to reiterate its wait-and-see stance to observe how Trump's tariffs are reflected in "hard data" and to help the Fed decide on its next steps. Following the strong US employment report last Friday, both Goldman Sachs and Barclays have postponed their predictions for the next rate cut from June to July. Notably, while Citi maintains its forecast of a 125 basis point rate cut for the year, it has delayed the timing of the first cut from May to June. Policy Statement and Powell's Remarks JPMorgan expects that the US Fed will keep its policy unchanged, with no substantive adjustments to the statement wording. The bank stated that the reason for the unchanged policy is clear, as Fed officials have emphasized the benefits of waiting before taking further action, even after "Liberation Day." JPMorgan expects no dissent in this decision , although Fed Governor Waller has become more dovish, his recent remarks do not provide a basis for preemptive policy easing. JPMorgan noted that in the subsequent statement, the description of the labour market as "solid" and inflation as "slightly above target" is likely to remain . However, Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed may downgrade its assessment of economic activity , changing "continued solid expansion" to "slowing growth." Additionally, the FOMC may emphasize "increased risks to the dual mandate." Moreover, "Liberation Day" has not reduced economic uncertainty, and JPMorgan detailed that whether the FOMC wants to continue emphasizing that uncertainty "has further increased" or adopt wording like "remains highly uncertain" is a difficult question to judge. Regarding forward guidance, the statement is expected to retain the existing wording unchanged. At the subsequent press conference, Powell's key message is likely to reiterate that "the FOMC is fully prepared to maintain its policy stance until clearer information emerges." Analysis of Economic Conditions Currently, much focus is on the impact of Trump's tariffs and the extent to which this impact has penetrated into the economy. There is a divergence between "soft data" and "hard data." Despite the US GDP slipping into contraction territory in Q1, labour market data has remained robust, showing no significant signs of weakness. Overall, "hard data" remains resilient, while "soft data" paints a different picture, but the US Fed does not seem overly concerned about this unless these trends begin to be reflected in the "hard data." On the inflation front, the latest CPI and PCE data show a mild downward trend, in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. Goldman Sachs economists have highlighted two key points in their FOMC preview report. The first is "soft data" VS "hard data." The current data trend exhibits characteristics typical of an event-driven slowdown: survey-based "soft data" has deteriorated rapidly, particularly expectations for future prospects, while "hard data," which typically lags by about three months, has not yet fully weakened. Despite the sluggish performance of "soft data," Fed officials and investors are aware that in past years, "soft data" has falsely signaled recession risks for the US economy. Therefore, they prefer to see more supportive "hard data," such as from the labour market, before considering an interest rate cut. The second point is a higher threshold for interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs expects the target range for the federal funds rate (4.25%-4.50%) to remain unchanged, and the Fed is not anticipated to make significant adjustments to its balance sheet policy. Compared to the three consecutive interest rate cuts during the 2019 trade friction period, the Fed has now set a higher threshold for interest rate cuts. Given the current high levels of inflation and inflation expectations, the Fed will require stronger evidence of an economic slowdown and the necessity for interest rate cuts before taking action. Internal Disagreements and Trump's Pressure Prior to this meeting, many individuals, including Chairman Powell, insisted on "waiting for policy clarity" . However, other influential officials, including Waller , have leaned dovish, while Trump continues to exert significant pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, repeatedly emphasizing that the Fed is moving too slowly. Most officials believe that reciprocal tariffs will drive up inflation and curb growth, but Waller described the impact of tariffs as "temporary," while suggesting that an interest rate cut could be triggered by a rise in unemployment. Waller warned that if the US Fed waits to act until new policies are reflected in "hard data," it may be too late. The US Fed has also consistently emphasized its high level of attention to long-term inflation expectations, which have remained stable so far—an encouraging sign for the US Fed. Regarding the current stance of monetary policy, many officials described the current policy stance as "moderately tight," while Waller considered it "significantly tight." Additionally, some viewed it as "clearly tight." How will the foreign exchange market be affected? Mark Salib of Goldman Sachs Group stated, that one should tactically buy the US dollar, "We believe the FOMC will have a relatively small impact on the foreign exchange market, especially following the recent data flow. This week, the key focus is on the dynamics of the New Taiwan dollar and other Asian currencies. We have observed a significant appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar against the US dollar. Although there are currently tactical buying opportunities for the US dollar, intertwined factors such as capital repatriation may suppress the movement of the US dollar against Asian currencies, instead exerting pressure on the US dollar. It is currently difficult to determine whether this constitutes a sell-off of US dollar assets." Dom Wilson and Vickie Chang of Goldman Sachs said, "We do not have a strong bias toward the US dollar. This is likely to be a rather mediocre US Fed meeting. Once we obtain more evidence on how tariffs affect inflation and growth, the US Fed's response will be more meaningful for the price movement of the US dollar." Taking a broader view of the US dollar, Dom Wilson and Vickie Chang believe that last week's strong employment report reflected more of "what could happen" rather than "what will happen." Recession watch has now begun, which will primarily determine the direction of the US dollar in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs economists expect that data in the coming months will show a slowdown in spending and an increase in inflation. Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategists pointed out that this combination will erode the relative hedging advantage of US Treasuries. How will the stock market be affected? Dom Wilson and Vickie Chang of Goldman Sachs Group stated, "The growth pricing model indicates that the market has fully priced in our baseline forecast but has insufficient cushioning against recession risks" (the US team still assesses the probability of a recession at 45%). In the absence of new catalysts, combined with the potential for short-term tailwinds from trade negotiations, the stock market and yields may continue to rise mildly, with volatility potentially compressing further." However, in the medium and long-term, the downside risks of stocks and bonds are more dominant. Therefore, it is recommended to view any market easing as an opportunity to increase downside protection, especially for equity assets—the combination of higher inflation and lower growth will ultimately suppress stock prices. Gold Technical Analysis Muhammad Umair, an analyst at FX Empire, stated that gold's daily chart remains within an upward channel, with the pullback from $3,500 finding support at $3,200 and recently facing resistance near $3,370 (coinciding with the upper boundary of the rising expanding wedge), with multiple bullish patterns confirming strong upward momentum. The RSI indicator has rebounded near 50 and is approaching overbought territory, indicating solid buying support. However, caution should be exercised regarding RSI bearish divergence and the resistance signal from the upper boundary of the channel, which may trigger short-term pullback risks. If gold effectively breaks through $3,500, the upside target will point towards the $4,000 mark. The 4-hour chart shows a continuation of the upward channel structure, with gold forming a complex compound inverted head and shoulders pattern before breaking above $3,350, suggesting that the next phase is likely to see further upside towards the $3,500 region.

SMM April 1 News: In the metal market, as of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE lead rose 0.14%, SHFE zinc rose 0.32%. SHFE copper fell 0.29%. SHFE nickel fell 1.34%. SHFE aluminum edged up. SHFE tin rose 0.51%. In addition, alumina fell 1.07%. Lithium carbonate rose 0.59%, silicon metal fell 0.25%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.17%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, iron ore rose 0.77%, rebar fell 0.28%, HRC edged up, stainless steel rose 1%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.5%, coke rose 3.37%. In overseas metals, as of 11:45, overseas base metals nearly all rose. LME lead, LME copper and LME aluminum all rose within 0.5%, LME zinc rose 0.53%, LME tin fell 0.16%. LME nickel rose 1.58%. In precious metals, as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.77%, hitting a record high of $3,175.6/oz during the session; COMEX silver rose 0.92%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 2.02%, hitting a record high of 738.62 yuan/g during the session; SHFE silver fell 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures fell 0.03% to 2,241.6 points. As of 11:45 on April 1, some futures midday quotes: April 1 SMM metal spot prices. Spot and fundamentals. Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 40 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 10 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 90 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 79,900 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 79,810 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has increased for 7 consecutive days, with increased arrivals and weak consumption being the main reasons. Click for details. Macro front. Domestically: [National Consumer Goods Trade-in Work Promotion Video Conference Held in Beijing] To summarize the progress of the consumer goods trade-in work in Q1 2025 and deploy the next key tasks, the National Consumer Goods Trade-in Work Promotion Video Conference was held in Beijing on March 28. Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping attended and spoke at the meeting. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen overall coordination, accelerate work progress, and ensure the implementation of various tasks; enhance digital empowerment, promote the widespread use of smart terminal consumer goods, and trade in new quality productive forces; deepen reform and innovation, work hard and pragmatically, and fully resolve various bottlenecks and obstacles that restrict policy effectiveness; intensify publicity and promotion, create a strong atmosphere, and stimulate consumer enthusiasm; focus on risk prevention, build a solid regulatory defense line, ensure special funds are used for their intended purposes and used effectively, promote greater effectiveness of consumer goods trade-in, and continuously enhance the fundamental role of consumption in economic growth. [Caixin China Manufacturing PMI Rose to 51.2 in March, the Highest in Four Months] The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI released today recorded 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from February, the highest since December 2024, indicating that manufacturing production and business activities continued to accelerate expansion. [PBOC's Open Market Net Withdrawal of 313 Billion Yuan] The PBOC conducted 64.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with the winning bid rate at 1.50%, unchanged from before. As 377.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 313 billion yuan was achieved. On April 1, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1775 yuan per US dollar. [Nanjing Fully Lifts Restrictions on Commodity Housing Sales] Nanjing held a press conference on further promoting the stable and healthy development of the Nanjing real estate market. Starting from April 1, 2025, sales restrictions will be lifted citywide in Nanjing, and commodity housing can be listed for sale after obtaining the real estate ownership certificate, effectively meeting residents' various housing replacement needs. In the US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.1% to 104.09. The market remains concerned that US reciprocal tariffs may exacerbate inflationary pressures and hinder global economic growth. US Treasury Secretary Besant said that Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 3 pm local time on Wednesday. The market is also closely watching the auto tariffs that will take effect on April 3. New York Fed President Williams said he cannot predict when the Fed may change the current interest rate level, but maintaining the status quo "for a while" will allow officials to study newly received data and decide on the next steps. In other currencies: The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.1%, while keeping the exchange settlement balance rate at 4%. The RBA kept rates unchanged as expected, with the AUD/USD showing little short-term fluctuation. (Huitong Finance) In data: Today, the US March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, US March ISM Manufacturing PMI, US February JOLTs Job Openings, Japan February Unemployment Rate, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index, Japan Q1 BOJ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook, Eurozone March Core Harmonized CPI YoY - Unadjusted Preliminary, Eurozone February Unemployment Rate, France March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, UK March SPGI Manufacturing PMI Final, Mexico March SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Brazil March SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the Week Ended March 30, Australia April Cash Rate and other data will be released. In addition, the RBA will announce its interest rate decision, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference, and ECB President Lagarde will speak at the AI Conference. It should be noted that on the eve of the Qingming Festival holiday on April 3, the SGE, SHFE, CZCE, and DCE will have no night session. On April 4, the SGE, Taiwan Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges, and domestic futures exchanges will all be closed for one day, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for one day due to the Qingming Festival, and northbound and southbound trading will be closed. In crude oil: As of 11:45, crude oil futures rose slightly, with WTI up 0.28% and Brent up 0.31%. Concerns that Russian and Iranian supplies may be affected supported oil prices, but worries that trade conflicts will impact global economic growth limited the gains. Before the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases its official weekly inventory data on Wednesday, the market will focus on the weekly inventory data released by the US industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. A preliminary survey released on Monday showed that US crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories may have all fallen last week. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed was that US crude inventories fell by about 2.1 million barrels in the week ended March 28. API's weekly inventory report will be released at 4:30 on Wednesday, and EIA will release its weekly crude inventory report at 22:30 on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.) Spot market overview: Copper prices stopped falling and rebounded, downstream companies began to replenish stocks, overall trading was better than yesterday [SMM South China Copper Spot]. Downstream replenishment enthusiasm slowed, spot premiums/discounts pulled back [SMM North China Copper Spot]. National NPI metal content fell about 2.25% MoM in March, expected to rise about 0.34% MoM in April [SMM Analysis]. Indonesian NPI metal content rose about 6.16% MoM in March, expected to fall about 0.44% MoM in April [SMM Analysis]. [SMM Survey] Central China rolling line rebar and coiled rebar production both fell, can it rebound next week? [SMM Analysis] Downstream demand improved, negative electrode material production rose in March. Other metal spot midday reviews will be updated later, please refresh to view.

SMM March 27 News: In the metal market, domestic base metals showed mixed performance overnight. SHFE tin rose 0.33%, while SHFE copper fell 1.08%. SHFE nickel increased by 0.57%, and SHFE lead rose 0.37%. SHFE aluminum dropped 0.12, and SHFE zinc slightly declined. Additionally, alumina fell 0.65%. In the ferrous metals series, all products rose overnight. Iron ore increased by 1.48%, stainless steel rose 0.34%, rebar climbed 0.09%, and HRC slightly increased. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 1.07%, and coke increased by 1.3%. LME metals generally fell overnight. LME copper dropped 2.03%, LME zinc fell 0.67%, LME tin declined 1.06%, LME lead rose 0.22%, and LME aluminum decreased by 0.17%. LME nickel increased by 0.21%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold rose 0.02%, and COMEX silver increased by 0.07%. SHFE gold rose 0.08%, and SHFE silver climbed 0.05%. As of 8:19 AM on March 27, the overnight closing market. Click to view the SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, Zheng Bei, Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), met with Jakob Stausholm, CEO of Rio Tinto Group. They discussed the low-carbon transformation of the steel industry and China's green development. Zheng stated that the NDRC strongly supports Rio Tinto's cooperation with Chinese enterprises to actively participate in China's green and low-carbon development and jointly maintain the resilience and stability of the global industry chain and supply chain. Stausholm expressed Rio Tinto's willingness to closely cooperate with Chinese enterprises to contribute to China's green and low-carbon development and the stability of the global supply chain. Shanghai aims to break through a 200 billion yuan scale in the intelligent computing cloud industry by 2027, with the intelligent computing scale striving to reach 200 EFLOPS. The "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovative Development of the Intelligent Computing Cloud Industry in Shanghai (2025-2027)" was released, proposing that by 2027, the city's intelligent computing cloud industry scale should strive to exceed 200 billion yuan, forming a complete ecosystem with cloud-edge collaboration and a complete industry chain. The intelligent computing scale aims to reach 200 EFLOPS, with self-controllable computing power accounting for over 70%. Several comprehensive intelligent computing cloud platforms and a batch of vertical intelligent computing cloud platforms will be established, creating a number of benchmark applications for intelligent computing cloud. One to two strategic enterprises and 20 high-growth enterprises will be cultivated, attracting domestic and overseas leading cloud companies to expand their investments in Shanghai. Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.33% to 104.55. Market participants now await the US personal consumption expenditure data to be released on Friday, which may provide more information on the US interest rate cut path. The US Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate last week but indicated possible rate cuts later this year. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, stated that while the Fed has made significant progress in reducing inflation, "we have more work to do" to reach the Fed's 2% target. The UK's National Statistics Office reported that the annual CPI growth rate slowed to 2.8% in February, below January's 3.0% and market expectations of 2.9%, still above the Bank of England's 2% target. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 3.5% annually, down from January's 3.7% and below the expected 3.6%, indicating some easing of inflationary pressures. Weak data weighed on the GBP, supporting EUR/GBP. Last week, the Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4.5%, with 8 out of 9 Monetary Policy Committee members supporting the status quo, only Swati Dingra advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut. The market had expected at least two members to favor a rate cut, and the hawkish decision briefly stabilized the GBP. However, the latest CPI data may reignite rate cut expectations, pressuring the GBP. Joe Capurso, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), said, "In the coming weeks, even months, the main driver of AUD/USD will be the new US trade policy and the reactions of other countries. If market participants are caught off guard by higher-than-expected US tariffs and retaliatory actions from other countries next week, AUD/USD may test $0.60 in the coming weeks." Today, data to be released includes China's February year-on-year industrial enterprise profits, Germany's February actual retail sales month-on-month and year-on-year, the eurozone's February seasonally adjusted M3 money supply annual rate, Canada's March CFIB Business Barometer, the US Q4 actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter final value, the US Q4 GDP price index quarter-on-quarter final value, the US Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter final value, the US Q4 consumer spending annualized quarter-on-quarter final value, the US Q4 GDP implicit deflator quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted final value, the US February wholesale inventory month-on-month preliminary value, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 22, the US continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 15, and the US February seasonally adjusted pending home sales index month-on-month. Additionally, it is worth noting that 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; the Central Bank of Turkey will release the latest meeting minutes; the 2025 Zhongguancun Forum Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 27 to 31, co-hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the China Association for Science and Technology, and the Beijing Municipal Government; Ukrainian President Zelensky will hold talks with major European leaders. Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil up 1.36% and Brent oil up 1.33%. Official data showed a decline in US crude and fuel inventories last week, and concerns about tightening global supply intensified. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude inventories fell last week as refineries increased production, while gasoline and distillate inventories also declined. The EIA report showed that in the week ending March 21, US crude inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 433.6 million barrels, a larger drop than the 956,000 barrels expected by analysts surveyed. According to CCTV News, on the 24th local time, the White House stated that US President Trump signed an executive order imposing "tariff sanctions" on countries importing Venezuelan oil. The statement said that starting from April 2, the US may impose a 25% tariff on all goods imported from any country that directly or indirectly imports Venezuelan oil. Barclays analysts said in a report, "The export discount for Venezuelan oil could be as high as 35%, and the difficulty of commercialization may create bottlenecks, leading to a daily production disruption of up to 400,000 barrels, more than half of Venezuela's exports."

Overnight, LME copper 3M opened at $9,932.5, initially tested the lowest price of $9,927 during the session, then fluctuated upward, reaching the highest price of $9,998.0, and finally closed at $9,997.5.