The most-traded HRC contract continued yesterday's rise during the day, closing at 3,327, up 1.12%. In the spot market, cold and hot rolled prices rose 10-20 yuan/mt, with moderate trading. During the off-season, sustained price rises could hardly stimulate a continuous increase in demand, and speculative and spot-futures demand also slowed down. From a fundamental perspective, there were few new maintenance activities for HRC, supply pressure persisted, and as the off-season gradually deepened, end-use demand was unlikely to be released significantly. Phased market movements only led to resource circulation, and inventory continued to slowly accumulate in July. Overall, the current sentiment improved somewhat, but considering that finished steel remains in the off-season, the rise driven by short-term news disturbances might be difficult to sustain, and the pace may still fluctuate. Pay attention to market news developments.

Rebar futures drifted higher today. The most-traded contract closed at 3,115, up 1.33% from the previous trading day. Spot side, market quotations largely followed the gains in futures, with an increase of 10-30 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, prices in some markets pulled back, and transactions of high-priced resources were weak.

SMM, July 15: Today, the futures market saw some decline, and the spot market in South China stabilized from weakness. At the start of trading, suppliers tried to hold prices firm and sell slowly on dips, but bearish sentiment still prevailed, and there were slightly more participants actually looking to sell for cash, causing quotes to be generally lowered passively. However, as expectations of a further weakening spot-futures price spread emerged, the dual decline in aluminum prices and the spread stimulated some traders to increase purchases in the market. Discounted cargoes were quickly absorbed, and buyers even began to accept firm offers. The mainstream quotations steadily recovered from a discount of 10 yuan/mt to flat, with tightening liquidity, and transactions showed an improving trend. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS short-term maintains a relatively stable consolidation pattern; stainless steel spot prices stable, end-users cautiously wait and see On July 15, SMM reported that SS futures showed a relatively stable consolidation pattern. SS futures pulled back in the night session, but after the morning open, the decline was partially recovered, then moved sideways until the close, with the most-traded SS contract settling at 14,595 yuan/mt. Spot market side, demand was in the off-season, and recent volatility intensifies in SS futures with no clear directional guidance, so downstream end-users held a strong wait-and-see sentiment, overall transactions were sluggish; spot prices were largely stable, with only some traders under shipment pressure occasionally releasing low-priced goods. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 reported at 14,660 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi area were in the 260-610 yuan/mt range. In the spot market: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil average flat; cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil (Wuxi +25 yuan/mt, Foshan flat); Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil -100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil, both flat. This week, macro liquidity disturbances intensified, stainless steel futures moved independently with a weak trend, and futures noticeably deviated from the pace of SHFE nickel and other nonferrous metals. During the week, capital sentiment switched frequently, driving SS futures into wild swings, earlier 14,500...

[SMM Nickel Flash] On July 15, the SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment index was 1.96, down 0.02 MoM. The upstream sentiment index for high-grade NPI was 2.06, down 0.04 MoM. The downstream sentiment index for high-grade NPI was 1.86, unchanged MoM. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the spot market for high-grade NPI intensified further today, while the psychological price level gap between upstream and downstream persisted and overall transactions remained sluggish.

SMM News, July 15: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE copper rising 0.57%, SHFE aluminum edging down, SHFE lead falling 1.8%, SHFE zinc up 0.45%, SHFE tin up 1.36%, and SHFE nickel down 0.43%. Furthermore, aluminum casting most-traded futures edged down, alumina most-traded rose 0.89%, lithium carbonate most-traded fell 2.33%, silicon metal most-traded fell 0.35%, and polysilicon most-traded futures fell 1.04%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 1.13%, rebar rose 1.24%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.09%, and stainless steel rose 0.76%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.12%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.1%. Overseas base metal market: As of 11:42, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.28%, LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead fell 0.32%, LME zinc rose 0.73%, LME tin rose 0.28%, and LME nickel edged up. Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.8%, and COMEX silver fell 0.67%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.18%; SHFE silver most-traded rose 1.03%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures rose 2.35%, and palladium most-traded futures rose 3.6%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe shipping futures contract rose 2.78% to 2,572.5 points. As of 11:42 on July 15, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: High-quality copper was quoted at 80 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 105,205 yuan/mt, up 1,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,095 yuan/mt, up 1,085 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a two-session rising streak and fell again today, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro Front Domestic: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP rose 4.7% YoY; national economy operated within a reasonable range; new momentum grew rapidly] The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that, according to preliminary estimates, H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY at constant prices. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; the secondary industry was 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9%; and the tertiary industry was 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2%. By quarter, Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY and Q2 grew 4.3%. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP rose 0.9%. Overall, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces cultivated and strengthened and high-quality development progressing toward new heights of quality. At the same time, we must recognize that external instabilities and uncertainties are mounting, the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in China remains pronounced, and the foundation for economic improvement still needs consolidation. In the next phase, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, intensify counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continue to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, enhance growth and revitalize existing assets, focus on building a strong Chinese market, accelerate the cultivation and strengthening of new momentum, step up efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved a net injection of 911.5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 426.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations and 1,400 billion yuan of 6-month outright reverse repo operations today. With 15 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing today, the operations resulted in a net injection of 911.5 billion yuan on the day. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index extended the previous trading day's decline, falling 0.11% to 100.83. Data: A key turning point signal emerged in US inflation. June CPI recorded its first MoM decline in six years, while core inflation was basically flat, prompting the market to dramatically scale back bets on a July rate hike by the US Fed. On Tuesday, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% YoY, below market expectations of 3.8% and a significant pullback from the prior reading of 4.2%. Core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, also below expectations of 2.8% and the prior reading of 2.9%. (Wall Street See) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates steady in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. For September, the probability of holding rates steady is 42.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 7.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Walsh stated that he places equal emphasis on the Fed's employment and inflation mandates—a point he has repeatedly stressed since assuming the role of Fed Chairman. "In the mandate you have given us, we do not favor one part over the other," Walsh told members of the House Financial Services Committee. "Price stability and full employment are not trade-offs. I am committed to achieving both. When later asked if he supported targeted measures to address the unemployment rate and employment opportunity gaps between Black and White Americans, Walsh stated: "The US must not leave anyone behind. Economic opportunity is critical to the trajectory of growth for the US over the next five to ten years, meaning every American needs the opportunity to be productive." (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research note indicated that US June CPI fell 0.4% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis, with YoY growth pulling back to 3.5%; core CPI was flat MoM and up 2.6% YoY, both below market expectations. The decline in energy prices was the main driver of cooling inflation. Looking ahead, as tensions escalate again between the US and Iran, the outlook for energy inflation remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the AI inflation effect is gradually materializing, with upstream hardware supply-demand mismatch, rising prices for software and related products, and AI capex boosting aggregate demand all potentially making core inflation stickier. For policy, the cooling inflation data in June supports the Fed holding rates steady at its July meeting, but recent remarks by Waller suggest [1] the Fed is reassessing the possibility of a "preventive rate hike." We maintain our base case of no rate hikes for the year, but flag that the bar for hiking has already fallen. If one or two hotter-than-expected inflation prints emerge, it could push the Fed to further discuss rate hike options. A CITIC Securities research note stated that US June CPI came in below expectations across the board, retail gas prices fell, core services inflation was flat MoM, and the second-round inflation effect was minimal. CITIC Securities believes US inflation is not sticky, noting that headline CPI YoY has definitively passed its cycle peak and is expected to trend mildly downward in Q3, hit bottom in September, rise to a secondary peak around year-end, and then decline rapidly next March. CITIC Securities still expects the Fed to stay on hold for the full year, sees room for derivative-priced rate hike expectations to be revised further down, considers US Treasuries currently unsuitable for allocation-based opportunities—with short-dated bonds better than long-dated ones—and believes the US dollar index faces difficulty sustaining upward momentum but has support, while the technology-driven theme in US equities retains its appeal. On the data front: Today will see the release of figures including China's June total electricity consumption YoY, China's June total electricity consumption, the US June PPI annual rate, the US June PPI monthly rate, the US July New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Eurozone May industrial output MoM rate, Canada's May wholesale sales MoM rate, and the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision as of July 15. Additionally, attention needs to be paid to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on the state of the economy; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference to brief on the execution of monetary policy and financial statistics for H1 2026; the National Energy Administration releasing total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. Fed Governor Barr spoke on artificial intelligence at the Fed’s annual financial inclusion conference; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participated in a fireside chat; Fed Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks at the Fed’s annual financial inclusion conference; Fed Governor Bowman also spoke at the same conference; permanent FOMC voting member and New York Fed President Williams gave a speech; Fed Chair Warsh attended the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the Fed’s Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report; Bank of England Governor Bailey spoke; the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers held a monetary policy press conference. ASML published its Q2 2026 financial report. Crude oil: As of 11:42, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 1.32%. Despite improved risk sentiment from cooling inflation, the crude oil market remains driven by geopolitics. The US announced the reinstatement of a naval blockade on vessels transiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, with escalating Middle East tensions supporting oil prices. Meanwhile, the US and European refined product markets are historically tight, heightened Middle East strains have fanned fuel supply concerns, and high oil prices continue to pressure consumers. Goldman’s Privorotsky believes Brent around $85 itself is manageable, the real story is in refined products, distillates rather than crude oil are the true inflation signal, and heating oil futures have hit new highs since the conflict erupted, highlighting tightness in the product market, with any further disruption disproportionately hitting inflation. (Wall Street CN) Additionally, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement on the 15th that as long as the US continues attacks on Iran, the region will not export “a drop of oil” or natural gas. (Xinhua) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Platinum prices stopped falling and rebounded today as US June CPI data was released, with the MoM reading recording its first pullback in six years. The dovish CPI data cooled market expectations for interest rate hikes, driving broad gains in precious metals. In morning trading, the most-traded platinum contract on the GFEX, PT2608, closed at 404.75 yuan/g, up 2.35%, and the inverted spread between the SGE Pt 9995 best ask price and GFEX PT2608 held around 4 yuan/g. In the spot market, mainstream quotations for platinum ranged from a discount of 1 yuan/g to a premium of 1 yuan/g against the PT2608 contract, with the discount level largely unchanged from the previous trading day. Suppliers’ warehouse warrant quotations were mainly on par with or at slight premiums to the most-traded GFEX contract. Spot quotations tended toward the mid-to-low end, with traders actively purchasing at the low end of the quotation range due to inter-month spread opportunities, while downstream buyers negotiated and made just-in-time procurement. Overall, trading in the platinum spot market was normal today.

[Shanghai zinc: Few traders selling, spot premiums up MoM] Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were centered at 24,790-24,860 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transaction at 24,910-25,010 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transaction at 24,720-24,790 yuan/mt. In early trading, offers were at premiums of 30-40 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet...

[SMM Molybdenum Analysis: Mainstream Mine Auction Prices Advance at High Levels, Molybdenum Market Moves Higher] SMM July 15 news: Today, China's mainstream mines collectively launched public auctions to sell molybdenum concentrates, with multiple rounds all concluded at premiums. Futures prices steadily climbed, with outstanding transaction performance, breaking the traditional weak pattern in the off-season and presenting a typical off-season strong rally and tight spot supply situation.

SMM Nickel, July 15: Macro & Market News: (1) US June CPI rose 3.5% YoY, versus an estimated 3.8% and a prior 4.2%. The US June CPI fell 0.4% MoM, compared to an estimated 0.1% decline and a 0.5% prior increase. Following the release of the US June CPI data, traders pushed back expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes to October. (2) General Administration of Customs: Since the beginning of this year, China’s export growth has exceeded 10%, maintaining expansion for 11 consecutive quarters. Spot Market: On July 14, SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,000 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the prior trading day, while premiums for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -300 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) drifted lower in early trading, closing the morning session at 128,870 yuan/mt, down 0.43%. US June inflation cooled significantly, with unadjusted core CPI rising 2.6% YoY, below the market expectation of 2.8% and the prior 2.9%. The cooling inflation further delayed expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, and the US dollar extended its decline. In the short term, nickel prices may rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract seen trading in the range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.