SMM, May 14: The most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt during the session. After the opening, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,580-16,625 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, driven by gains on LME, lead prices edged up, touching a high of 16,675 yuan/mt. However, dragged down by continued social inventory buildup in China and weak downstream consumption, prices subsequently pulled back slightly, ultimately closing at 16,590 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick with a decline of 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. With lead ingot inventory outside China continuing destocking and spot cargo in Southeast Asia remaining persistently tight, LME lead is expected to hold up well overall. Although spot lead prices in China received some support from the strengthening of LME lead, the upward momentum in prices remained relatively limited due to overall weak end-use demand. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 14: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead maintained strong upward momentum into the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Lead ingot inventory outside China continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread remained in a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot cargo availability in the Southeast Asian spot market, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, geopolitical uncertainties outside China remain significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. In China, spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's performance, but upward momentum remained limited due to weak end-use consumption. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead continued to rise firmly after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately settling at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: US Fed's Collins: If inflation does not ease, rate hikes may be needed. US April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and 6% YoY, both the largest increases since 2022. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth expectations from 1.38 million bpd to 1.17 million bpd. US President Trump arrived in Beijing to begin his visit to China. He Lifeng held economic and trade consultations with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in South Korea. China's State Administration for Market Regulation: launched a special campaign to remove obstacles hindering the unified market and fair competition. : SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers offered limited quotations, with some waiting for delivery and others seeing rising wait-and-see sentiment. Additionally, cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters also saw relatively fewer quotations. Secondary lead side, regional supply disparities persisted, with smelters showing strong reluctance to sell at low prices. Some smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. Downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm still present and some purchasing on dips as needed, but market trading activity weakened compared to yesterday. Inventory: On May 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,300 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, uncertainty surrounding overseas geopolitical factors remains significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. Although domestic spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's movement, upward momentum remained insufficient due to weak end-use consumption. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[Secondary Lead Market Dynamics] The off-season trend in lead-acid battery consumption remained unchanged, and spot lead prices were in the doldrums. Secondary refined lead suppliers showed low enthusiasm in offering quotes, and their prices remained relatively firm, resulting in an inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices. Mainstream ex-factory prices were at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with tax-exclusive refined lead ex-factory quotes around 15,250 yuan/mt. Downstream inquiries were moderate, but purchasing willingness was insufficient.

Spot market, this week (April 20–24, 2026), lead prices first rose then fell with the center pulling back. Downstream was in the off-season, maintaining only just-in-time procurement with insufficient purchase willingness at high prices, and spot order trading was overall sluggish. Regionally, Henan smelters mostly delivered via long-term contracts, with spot orders at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, traders at a discount of 130-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead contract, and limited just-in-time procurement transactions. In Hunan, spot order quotes were at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt, traders at a futures discount of 150-180 yuan/mt, and market transactions were weak. Jiangxi smelters maintained firm quotes at a premium of 120-150 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with moderate just-in-time procurement transactions. Guangdong smelters maintained ex-factory premiums at 50-80 yuan/mt. Overall, refined lead spot premiums across regions diverged this week. Tight supply from the smelting side supported spot quotes, while downstream purchase sentiment remained cautious. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensified, spot premiums moved sideways, and overall market transactions were weak.

[SMM Analysis: How is the Expected Production of Primary Lead in June Affected by Tightened Raw Material Supply and Overhauls?] SMM May 30 Report: In May 2025, the national production of primary lead showed a slight upward trend, increasing by 2.39 percentage points MoM and 14.66 percentage points YoY. The cumulative production of primary lead from January to May 2025 increased by 8.41 percentage points YoY.

This week, there has been no improvement in the replacement consumption of lead-acid batteries for e-bikes, cars, and other applications in the market. Dealers have been frequently conducting sales promotions, and the inventory of some dealers has declined compared to April. However, facing the June market, most dealers remain cautious and are only purchasing batteries as needed. On the producer side, lead-acid battery enterprises have maintained a state of producing based on sales. Due to relatively high finished product inventories, some enterprises plan to take holidays during the Dragon Boat Festival to reduce inventories. As a result, downstream enterprises showed poor enthusiasm for purchasing lead ingots before the festival. It was not until Friday, when the spot lead price fell below 16,500 yuan/mt, that a small number of enterprises made purchases as needed, and spot trades improved relatively.

[SMM Morning Lead Meeting Summary: Spot Order Market Transactions Turn Weak Again, Lead Price Trend May Still Be Trapped in a Range] Smelters are facing tight supply of raw materials, with lead concentrate prices showing an upward trend and scrap battery purchase prices remaining high. Refineries are under significant operational pressure, with some companies significantly lowering their scrap battery purchase quotes yesterday; although some recyclers are selling off their inventory due to fear of price drops, arrivals remain limited. Meanwhile, downstream lead-acid battery orders are poor, and purchase willingness for lead ingots is weak...

SMM Lead Weekly Review: Supply and Demand Both Increased in Spot Market, Lead Prices Consolidated at High Levels In the spot market, the SMM 1# lead average price first declined then rebounded this week (March 15-21, 2025), consolidating at high levels. Additionally, in the secondary refined lead market, regional differences were quite noticeable.

SMM reported on March 7: This week, there has been no significant change in end-use consumption in the lead-acid battery market, with dealers maintaining a just-in-time procurement state. However, the trading sentiment in the battery wholesale market has shifted. For instance, the e-bike and automotive battery markets, approaching the traditional off-season, are seeing strong expectations of promotional activities in the battery wholesale market, with some companies already notifying dealers of plans to lower prices for promotions. Recently, SHFE lead broke away from a prolonged period of range-bound fluctuations, driving spot lead prices higher. Rising raw material costs have shifted the market sentiment in the lead-acid battery sector. For example, the e-bike battery wholesale market has started to project a price hike atmosphere, while dealers mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The selling price in the battery market has yet to show any actual changes.