Next week, key macro data releases will include China's April total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's April industrial value-added output of enterprises above designated size YoY, the final reading of the US May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the final reading of the US May one-year inflation rate expectations. In addition, the Fed Chairman transition has been completed, and the monetary policy meeting minutes are set to be released next week. LME lead side, the ex-China mine and smelting sector is going through a turbulent period. Following the accident at a lead-zinc smelter in Kazakhstan in early May, energy supply conflicts in Peru escalated this week. As Peru is a major lead-zinc mining region, this tightened supply expectations on the mine side, supporting lead prices. Meanwhile, spot lead supply tensions in Southeast Asia remained prominent. On one hand, LME lead inventory stood as high as 265,000 mt, mainly consisting of low-grade lead ingots; on the other hand, countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia faced significant lead ingot supply gaps, with spot premiums rising again, mainly due to the scarcity of high-grade lead ingot resources. Overall, LME lead is expected to continue to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,975-2,035/mt next week. SHFE lead side, the issue of rising visible inventory of lead ingots caused by short-term deliveries will ease as deliveries conclude. However, the biggest bearish factors currently come from the lead consumption off-season, while secondary lead smelters have shown signs of production resumptions, putting lead prices under pressure. Additionally, the lead ingot import window fully closed this week, and given the regional tight supply of lead ingots outside China, attention should be paid to expectations of the lead ingot export window opening in H2. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,350-16,750 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,300-16,600 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with downstream enterprises having limited rigid demand and being relatively cautious in procurement. Supply side, production cuts at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, with factories in some regions gradually resuming production. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the materialization of new maintenance at primary lead enterprises. Spot lead is expected to still trade at a slight discount next week (against SMM #1 lead).

SMM, May 14: The most-traded SHFE lead 2026 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt during the session. After the opening, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within the range of 16,580-16,625 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, driven by gains on LME, lead prices edged up, touching a high of 16,675 yuan/mt. However, dragged down by continued social inventory buildup in China and weak downstream consumption, prices subsequently pulled back slightly, ultimately closing at 16,590 yuan/mt, posting a bearish candlestick with a decline of 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. With lead ingot inventory outside China continuing destocking and spot cargo in Southeast Asia remaining persistently tight, LME lead is expected to hold up well overall. Although spot lead prices in China received some support from the strengthening of LME lead, the upward momentum in prices remained relatively limited due to overall weak end-use demand. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

SMM May 14: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead maintained strong upward momentum into the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, ultimately closing at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. Lead ingot inventory outside China continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread remained in a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot cargo availability in the Southeast Asian spot market, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, geopolitical uncertainties outside China remain significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. In China, spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's performance, but upward momentum remained limited due to weak end-use consumption. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, briefly touching a low of $1,995.5/mt during the Asian session. LME lead continued to rise firmly after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,016/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at $2,004/mt, up 0.33%, refreshing a nearly 4-month high. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,655 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, with a low of 16,625 yuan/mt and a high of 16,675 yuan/mt during the session, ultimately settling at 16,640 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the macro front: US Fed's Collins: If inflation does not ease, rate hikes may be needed. US April PPI surged 1.4% MoM and 6% YoY, both the largest increases since 2022. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth expectations from 1.38 million bpd to 1.17 million bpd. US President Trump arrived in Beijing to begin his visit to China. He Lifeng held economic and trade consultations with US Treasury Secretary Bessent in South Korea. China's State Administration for Market Regulation: launched a special campaign to remove obstacles hindering the unified market and fair competition. : SHFE lead remained in the doldrums. Suppliers offered limited quotations, with some waiting for delivery and others seeing rising wait-and-see sentiment. Additionally, cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters also saw relatively fewer quotations. Secondary lead side, regional supply disparities persisted, with smelters showing strong reluctance to sell at low prices. Some smelters held prices firm for shipments, with secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-works basis. Downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement, with inquiry enthusiasm still present and some purchasing on dips as needed, but market trading activity weakened compared to yesterday. Inventory: On May 13, LME lead inventory decreased by 250 mt to 265,300 mt. As of May 11, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 2,200 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Ex-China lead ingot inventory continued to decline, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight contango. Combined with the persistently tight spot market supply in Southeast Asia, LME lead is expected to hold up well. In addition, uncertainty surrounding overseas geopolitical factors remains significant, and their impact on the market warrants continued attention. Although domestic spot lead prices received a slight boost from LME lead's movement, upward momentum remained insufficient due to weak end-use consumption. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[Secondary Lead Market Dynamics] The off-season trend in lead-acid battery consumption remained unchanged, and spot lead prices were in the doldrums. Secondary refined lead suppliers showed low enthusiasm in offering quotes, and their prices remained relatively firm, resulting in an inversion between secondary lead and primary lead prices. Mainstream ex-factory prices were at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with tax-exclusive refined lead ex-factory quotes around 15,250 yuan/mt. Downstream inquiries were moderate, but purchasing willingness was insufficient.

[Lead Market Dynamics] According to feedback from lead smelters in Southeast Asia, the tight raw material supply situation has not improved recently, leading to persistently tight spot lead ingot circulation in the region, with the short-term tight pattern unlikely to change.

This week was the week before the Labour Day holiday. The lead-acid battery market had a strong holiday atmosphere. Pre-holiday purchasing by dealers showed no significant changes. However, due to sluggish consumption in the end-use market, some dealers intended to offer sales promotions on batteries during the Labour Day holiday, while producers made no price adjustments due to cost factors. In addition, most producers planned to take holidays, and pre-holiday stocking demand in the lead market was limited. Combined with lead prices staying high, spot lead trading activity weakened WoW.

Spot market, this week (April 20–24, 2026), lead prices first rose then fell with the center pulling back. Downstream was in the off-season, maintaining only just-in-time procurement with insufficient purchase willingness at high prices, and spot order trading was overall sluggish. Regionally, Henan smelters mostly delivered via long-term contracts, with spot orders at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, traders at a discount of 130-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead contract, and limited just-in-time procurement transactions. In Hunan, spot order quotes were at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt, traders at a futures discount of 150-180 yuan/mt, and market transactions were weak. Jiangxi smelters maintained firm quotes at a premium of 120-150 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with moderate just-in-time procurement transactions. Guangdong smelters maintained ex-factory premiums at 50-80 yuan/mt. Overall, refined lead spot premiums across regions diverged this week. Tight supply from the smelting side supported spot quotes, while downstream purchase sentiment remained cautious. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream intensified, spot premiums moved sideways, and overall market transactions were weak.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Increasing Maintenance at China's Secondary Lead Enterprises VS Easing Spot Premiums in Southeast Asia, Lead Prices May Remain in the Doldrums] US President Trump ordered the sinking of any vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the strait had been "completely blockaded." Recently, the off-season trend in the lead-acid battery market intensified, with some downstream enterprises expanding production cuts, and enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement declined...

[SMM Analysis] Why Has LME Lead Shifted Back to Backwardation for the First Time in Nearly a Year? SMM, April 21 — Since late March, London lead prices have stabilized after bottoming out, gradually holding above the $1,900/mt level and entering an upward trend, attempting to approach the $2,000/mt mark.