Next week, the main macroeconomic data to be released include China's June CPI annual rate and the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI. This week, US non-farm payrolls data came in far below the previous value and expectations, cooling market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike. The US dollar index may return to a weak range of fluctuation. Although the prospects for US-Iran peace talks remain unclear, the gradual recovery of shipping and maritime transport and the decline in crude oil prices indicate that supply chain markets are recovering. In addition, it should be noted that the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting next week. For LME lead, high lead ingot inventory outside China is the biggest bearish factor in current market trading, especially as LME lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M contango did not narrow but widened, with the latest quote at -$37.79/mt. Fundamental news was mediocre, providing limited support for prices. In the near term, we need to pay more attention to the US dollar index trend and the new developments from next week’s US Fed meeting, and their impact on the metals market. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,865-1,915/mt next week. For SHFE lead, this week, amid a carnival for bears, SHFE lead fell to a more than two-year low, causing lead smelters’ losses to widen and forcing secondary lead enterprises to cut or suspend production again. Bears then began to exit, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Going forward, we need to monitor downstream enterprises’ purchasing trends. If lead ingot destocking materializes, lead prices may continue to rebound; otherwise, we should remain vigilant about bearish funds that have not exited. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,800-16,100 yuan/mt. Spot Price Forecast: 15,750-16,000 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in July remains unchanged. However, after large enterprises complete their semi-annual inventory checks and account closing, they will resume regular purchasing, which may bring some purchasing expectations. Supply side, primary lead enterprises are about to resume production after maintenance, turning supply expectations upward. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are in a state of production cuts, leading to regional supply constraints. If lead prices continue to rebound next week, we need to watch for the possibility of secondary lead production resuming as losses are repaired. Spot lead is expected to remain in contango trading.

SMM, Jul 3 – This week, secondary refined lead fell by 200 yuan/mt alongside the SMM #1 lead ingot price. EXW prices for secondary refined lead ranged from parity to a premium of 25 yuan/mt, with delivered cargoes at a highest premium of 100 yuan/mt. Smelters, facing losses, held prices firm and held back from selling, while downstream battery plants made just-in-time procurement during the off-season. The market saw prices but few deals, with sluggish transactions, and significant improvement in trading activity is unlikely in the short term. As of Jul 3, large-scale secondary lead enterprises in China incurred a loss of 548 yuan/mt, while losses at small and medium-sized secondary smelters widened to 742 yuan/mt. Finished secondary lead prices continued to trend downwards, and scrap battery raw material costs fluctuated at highs. This week, smelters’ losses widened further WoW. Currently, secondary lead smelters’ overall operating rate remains at a low level, and enterprises are awaiting a recovery signal in end-use consumption in July. It is expected that overall secondary lead supply volume next month will be basically flat with this month, and the premium range for secondary refined lead will remain stable in the short term.

As of late June, replacement demand in the lead-acid battery market remained sluggish. Moreover, due to sales promotions on finished products by some battery enterprises in the first half of the month, battery inventory shifted to dealers, leading to accumulated dealer-side inventory. Meanwhile, the promotional atmosphere in the wholesale battery market weakened, and dealers in some regions intended to restore original selling prices, with the main 48v20Ah model quoted at 400-410 yuan per unit. On the producer side, large enterprises suspended purchases amid the semi-annual period, while other small and medium-sized enterprises engaged in dip-buying as lead prices weakened, though overall spot lead trading volume in the market contracted WoW.

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Lead Prices Will Be in the Doldrums Amid Bearish Macro Sentiment] Recently, multiple macro events have dominated the trading direction of base metals. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes strengthened, and the US dollar index hit a new high; progress in Middle East peace talks and a plunge in crude oil prices, to some extent, signal that metals......

Next week, on the macro data front, the US May core PCE price index YoY rate, US May personal spending MoM rate, and the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI flash reading are about to be released. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged in June as expected, but the meeting sent a clear hawkish signal, including a sharp upward revision to inflation forecasts and a dot plot showing that a majority of officials expected rate hikes within the year. In addition, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was officially signed and entered into force, initiating a 60-day negotiation period, while the latest foreign media reports indicate that Israel has again attacked Lebanon, leaving Middle East peace talks still uncertain. On the LME lead front, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for three consecutive weeks, but total inventory remains at a high level of 300,000 mt. During this period, the LME Cash-3M spread shifted from a premium last week to a discount, latest at -$28.4/mt. Meanwhile, new progress emerged in the Middle East peace talks, and expectations for US Fed rate hikes within the year rose. With a complex macro environment, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating, and the consolidation range will widen, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,955-2,000/mt. On the SHFE lead side, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, production resumptions at downstream enterprises will bring some rigid demand. However, it should be noted that at the half-year mark, large downstream enterprises will close their books and take stock, and lead ingot purchasing will be suspended, providing limited support for lead prices. Meanwhile, maintenance at primary and secondary lead smelters is increasing, and supply tightening expectations support stronger lead prices. Under the combined effect of these factors, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,250-16,650 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,150-16,450 yuan/mt. Due to smelter maintenance in mid-to-late June, lead ingot supply will be relatively tight. However, with the ongoing mid-year capital recouping, suppliers will continue to clear inventory and sell, and spot lead is expected to maintain small discounts (vs. SMM# lead) when selling. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises also face mid-year capital recouping. Some enterprises will maintain production with their inventory or continue to pick up previously-ordered lead ingots, with actual procurement to be postponed.

Recently, the lead-acid battery market’s traditional off-season trend continued, with dealers’ response to battery sales promotions remaining tepid. Most dealers maintained purchasing as needed; for example, the wholesale price of the main e-bike lead-acid battery model 48V12Ah was reported at 270 yuan per set, while live streaming promotions were conducted during the "618" festival. On the producer side, this week, lead prices rebounded with volatility, and downstream enterprises’ purchasing enthusiasm for lead ingots weakened significantly WoW. On the one hand, lead inventory purchased earlier had not yet been consumed; on the other hand, the rebound in lead prices dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to weaker spot lead market transactions.

SMM June 16 News: Today, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,215 yuan/mt, moved sideways around the daily average in early trading, trended higher during the session to touch a high of 16,360 yuan/mt, pulled back slightly near the end of the session, and finally closed at 16,310 yuan/mt, recording a two-day winning streak, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.43%. Boosted by a broad rise in the non-ferrous metals sector, SHFE lead continued to move higher today. Supply side, primary and secondary smelters have both production stoppages and resumptions, with bullish and bearish factors tugging at each other; demand side, downstream purchase willingness remained weak, with purchases only for essential restocking, and spot lead transactions were sluggish. SMM lead ingot inventories across five regions edged up slightly yesterday. After the delivery of materials is absorbed, inventory buildup pressure will ease marginally, and lead prices have support for a recovery in the short term. Data Sourcing Disclaimer: All data, except for publicly available information, are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are provided for reference only, not constituting any decision-making advice.

SMM, June 15: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, swung wildly during the Asian session, hitting a low of $1,947.5/mt; after entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touched a high of $1,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $1,967/mt, up 0.49%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,055 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,035 yuan/mt at the start of the session, then moved sideways, touched a high of 16,125 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,100 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. Demand side, production at lead-acid battery enterprises was relatively stable; after lead prices fell, downstream enterprises bought the dip on demand; and, considering the potential mid-year book closing and inventory check in late June, some downstream enterprises bought in advance. Supply side, production at primary and secondary lead enterprises saw both increases and decreases, and supply differences are expected to be relatively small. In-factory inventories at both declined, easing smelters' shipment pressure. In particular, secondary lead smelters, suffering severe losses, showed limited willingness to sell. Spot lead is expected to continue selling at a small premium (over SMM #1 lead). If SHFE lead falls again, the possibility of spot lead trading above futures cannot be ruled out.

Futures: Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, swung wildly during Asian trading and hit a low of $1,947.5/mt; entering the European session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,968.5/mt in late trading, and finally settled at $1,967/mt, up 0.49%. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,055 yuan/mt, dipped briefly to a low of 16,035 yuan/mt, then moved sideways, hitting a high of 16,125 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,100 yuan/mt, up 0.28%. On the macro front: According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, US President Trump's approval rating among voters in rural America dropped to 50%, the lowest of his presidency. Middle East tensions--Trump: Iran deal reached, free passage through the Strait and US military blockade lifted. The PBOC released its financial statistics report for May 2026: M2 was flat while M1 rose; the incremental scale of aggregate social financing in the first five months reached 17.48 trillion yuan. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to be in the doldrums, once again nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers were somewhat divided in their shipments, with quotations featuring both premiums and discounts. Inventories at smelters in major producing regions declined, and suppliers held prices firm when selling. Electrolytic lead from major producing regions was quoted at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, EXW. In secondary lead, smelters offered limited cargoes, with some secondary refined lead quoted at premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead, EXW. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, mainly sourcing EXW cargoes from smelters, while transactions for warehouse cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market were modest. Inventory side: On June 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 775 mt to 305,875 mt. As of June 11, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations reached 65,400 mt, down 1,700 mt from June 4, and up over 700 mt from June 8. Today's lead price forecast: On the consumption side, lead-acid battery enterprises maintained relatively stable production. After the decline in lead prices, downstream enterprises bought the dip as needed, and considering possible mid-year book closing and inventory checks in late June, some downstream firms made advance purchases. On the supply side, primary and secondary lead enterprises saw both increases and decreases in production, with supply expected to show little difference. In-factory inventories at both types of smelters declined, easing the pressure to sell. In particular, heavy losses at secondary lead smelters discouraged them from offering cargoes. Spot lead is expected to continue being quoted at small premiums against SMM #1 lead, and if SHFE lead falls further, the possibility of spot prices exceeding futures cannot be ruled out.

Next week, the Chinese market will be closed for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. SHFE and other exchanges will not operate night sessions on Thursday evening and will be closed all day on Friday. On the macro data front, China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May industrial value-added above designated size YoY, and the US May retail sales month-on-month rate are about to be released. Additionally, a key event will be the first policy meeting of the new US Fed chair since taking office. The market expects the June interest rate to remain unchanged, with greater focus on when the US Fed will start raising rates. On the LME lead side, the Middle East conflict recently reversed again, with overseas bulls withdrawing and bears adding positions. LME lead fell below all moving averages, reaching a new low in nearly one and a half months. Meanwhile, tightness in spot cargo in markets outside China persists. LME saw a backwardation structure again, with LME Cash-3M quoted at $4.97/mt. Next week, attention will be on the impact of the US Fed meeting on the US dollar index. Lead prices are expected to continue trading in the doldrums, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,915-1,975/mt. On the SHFE lead side, next Monday is the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2606 contract. Suppliers shipping to delivery warehouses will boost expectations of rising visible inventory, especially as SHFE lead bears add positions. Open interest in the most-traded contract has reached as high as 85,000 lots, putting lead prices under pressure. Notably, in-factory inventory at primary lead enterprises has declined, and secondary lead smelters are suffering severe losses. Fundamentals provide strong support, with the spread between futures and spot prices narrowing rapidly and a premium cannot be ruled out. Downside risk to lead prices is expected to persist, but there is a chance to dip and rebound. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,850-16,300 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 15,900-16,150 yuan/mt. Demand side, production at lead-acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. After the lead price decline, downstream enterprises buy the dip as needed. Also, considering the potential for mid-year account closing and stocktaking in late June, some downstream players purchase in advance. Supply side, production at primary and secondary lead enterprises both increased and decreased. Supply differences are expected to be relatively small. In-factory inventories at both have fallen, reducing smelters' pressure to sell. Especially as secondary lead smelters suffer severe losses, their willingness to sell is low. Spot lead is expected to maintain small premiums (over SMM #1 lead) on shipments. If SHFE lead falls further, the possibility of spot prices exceeding futures cannot be ruled out.