SMM April 30 update: Lead prices fluctuated at highs before pulling back this week, with secondary refined lead generally trading at discounts. Early in the week, smelter maintenance increased and regional supply tightened, with quotes maintained at a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt. Downstream buyers saw weak rigid demand ahead of the holiday, and market trading was sluggish. From mid-week to the weekend, lead prices weakened. Raw material cost support narrowed quotes to a discount of 50 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, as downstream enterprises gradually went on holiday and spot cargo transactions remained weak. Regional secondary lead supply contracted as smelters held prices firm on shipments. Combined with stable scrap battery procurement prices, smelting costs pulled back somewhat, and losses were slightly repaired. As of April 30, large enterprises posted losses of 109 yuan/mt, while small and medium-sized enterprises posted losses of 309 yuan/mt. Next week, scrap battery raw material inventory will remain tight, some smelters will cut production, and secondary lead supply will contract. Downstream consumption will remain weak, the weak supply-demand pattern on both sides will continue, and industry losses will be difficult to improve. Secondary refined lead is expected to maintain a discount of 50-0 yuan/mt.

Next week, due to the Labour Day holiday, China's SHFE and other exchanges will be closed on May 4-5; the LME outside China will be closed on May 4 for the Early May Bank Holiday. Key macro economic data includes US April ADP employment, US April unemployment rate, and US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, which are about to be released. Additionally, according to the latest news, the first batch of US tariff refunds will be issued around May 11, indicating a loosening of tariff policies, while we need to continue monitoring the progress of US-Iran negotiations. LME lead side, LME lead inventory decline slowed down, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight discount for nearly a week, indicating strong support for lead prices. The impact of Middle East events on shipping has not yet been resolved, and spot supply in Southeast Asia remains tight, especially with high-grade lead ingot premiums at elevated levels. Lead prices are expected to continue consolidating and await new factors. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,935-1,975/mt next week. SHFE lead side, downstream enterprises will be on concentrated holiday during Labour Day, while lead smelter maintenance or production shutdowns increased in April-May. However, the concentrated short-term consumption reduction still poses a significant risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots after the holiday. Combined with new delivery factors in May, lead prices may come under pressure and weaken before the holiday. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,450-16,800 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. Supply side, primary lead and secondary lead smelters are undergoing concentrated maintenance, lead ingot supply is tightening regionally, and the import window for lead ingots has closed, reducing imported lead inflows. If lead prices weaken subsequently, spot discounts (against futures) in some regions will narrow, and secondary lead may even see an inversion (i.e., premiums against SMM #1 lead average price). After the holiday, downstream enterprises will resume production, but due to mediocre order performance, producers will maintain a produce-based-on-sales approach.

Platinum futures fluctuated downward today. During the morning session, the most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) closed at 500.4 yuan/gram, down 1.27%. The SGE Pt9995 versus GFEX PT2606 spread remained inverted by 2-3 yuan/gram. Spot side, mainstream spot quotations narrowed slightly in discount compared to the previous trading day. During the morning session, spot platinum traders' mainstream quotations were at a discount of 3-4 yuan/gram to PT2606. Recently, tax authorities launched a special campaign to regulate invoice-related economic activities, strictly controlling enterprise invoicing quotas. However, as platinum and palladium trade volumes were relatively low, this had not yet been reflected in spot prices, with only some traders suspending precious metals quotations due to impacts on their main business. Transaction side, according to SMM, morning mainstream quotations of 3-4 yuan/gram discount were difficult to transact. Some suppliers held prices firm for sales due to delivery intentions or shipments with invoices dated this month, while market purchase intention prices were around a 5 yuan/gram discount to GFEX. Downstream enterprises made small negotiated purchases based on order conditions, and sluggish spot market consumption remained unchanged.

As of April 24, the mainstream price in the south China market — SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was at a discount of 345 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the mainstream price in the east China market — SMM A00 aluminum was at a discount of 130 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. The price spread between the two regions had exceeded 200 yuan/mt, covering sea freight, short-haul transfer, and logistics costs, officially opening up the transshipment window between Guangdong and Shanghai...

[SMM Daily Review: Spot Silver Discounts Narrowed, Market Trading Recovered Slightly] SMM reported on April 24 that spot silver consumption recovered slightly today, with more inquiries, firmer quotes, and transactions mainly concluded at parity.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Demand side, SHFE copper prices rose during the night session yesterday, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current price levels declined notably. Intraday purchasing sentiment pulled back, reflecting the suppressive effect of high prices on demand. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened to 180-110 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed some sentiment to hold prices firm, with low willingness to sell, providing certain support for spot discounts. Regional supply side, consumption momentum weakened in north China regions such as Gansu, Shanxi, and Henan, with some smelters resuming shipments to the Shanghai area. Available spot cargo in the east China market may increase going forward, posing potential downward pressure on spot discounts. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area was recorded at 188,000 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW. The destocking pace slowed down significantly, indicating that current copper prices had weak appeal to downstream enterprises. Overall, amid the interplay between support from the price spread between futures contracts structure and expectations of cargo flowing back from the north, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the perspective of regional price spreads, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further to around 250 yuan/mt, with the arbitrage window expanding further. The willingness to divert cargoes from east China to south China is expected to strengthen going forward, which is likely to redirect available cargoes from the Shanghai market and provide marginal support for local spot discounts. In addition, in the current Shanghai spot copper market, cargoes with invoices dated this month are relatively scarce on the trading side, with some suppliers opting to make shipments using cargoes with invoices dated next month. The price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month remained at 30-40 yuan/mt. Demand side, copper prices are currently moving sideways, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current copper prices may improve somewhat, with ordering willingness rebounding slightly, though purchases still mainly center on just-in-time procurement. Overall, driven by the combined effects of mild demand improvement, cross-regional arbitrage, and divergence in invoice structures, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM April 22 News: [SMM] On April 22, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was quoted at 24,570 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt, at a discount of 340 yuan/mt to the current-month contract, with the discount widening by 10 yuan/mt. Aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded today; however, the overall spot and futures performance remained weak, with core market contradictions seeing no substantial relief. Current arrivals and social inventory continued to stay high, and combined with the rebound in futures prices, spot discounts came under further pressure. Most suppliers in the market prioritized recovering funds and accelerating shipments, generally offering flexible price concessions. Meanwhile, the spot-futures price spread had been running in a low range for an extended period, and some holders were willing to hold prices firm, actively defending price floors. Mainstream spot discounts in the market were concentrated at -20 to -10 yuan/mt, with ample circulation of par-priced cargoes. Demand-side follow-through was insufficient, as downstream enterprises resisted chasing higher prices and adopted a cautious and conservative approach to restocking. Trading sentiment weakened, with most participants reverting to a wait-and-see stance and showing reduced willingness to enter the market for purchases. Overall end-user support was lackluster, and actual market transactions showed mediocre performance. Mainstream transaction prices today were concentrated in the range of a discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 320 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 05 contract.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,286/mt, with the center fluctuating upward to a high of $13,330/mt in the early session before declining, touching a low of $13,139/mt near the end of the session, and finally closing at $13,154.5/mt, down 0.68%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 279,000 lots, down 1,632 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,300 yuan/mt, with the center rising to a high of 102,810 yuan/mt in the early session, before the center declined near the end of the session to a low of 102,060 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 102,100 yuan/mt, down 0.04%. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 1,148 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

【SMM Copper News Flash】According to SHFE data, a total of 6,258 mt of copper futures warrants flowed out today, of which the Shanghai region saw the largest outflow of 4,398 mt. It is worth noting that the Shanghai region has shifted from spot discounts to spot premiums.