[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, on the inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 188,300 mt after the holiday, up 6,500 mt WoW, while inventory in the Jiangsu area was 41,700 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW. The destocking trend in social inventory saw its first inflection point, shifting to a slight inventory buildup during the holiday period, though the increase was not yet significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of subsequent inventory buildup. Supply side, although the import window remained profitable, logistics disruptions in Africa led to reduced import arrivals, limiting short-term incremental spot cargo circulation. Demand side, after the rise in copper prices, end-user purchase willingness weakened, compounded by suppliers holding back from selling, spot premiums rose, and market trading was thin on both sides. Overall, under the multiple factors of high prices suppressing demand, the initial emergence of an inventory inflection point, suppliers holding back from selling, and reduced import arrivals, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,073.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,098/mt in early trading, then the copper price center gradually declined to $12,967/mt, and finally closed at $12,989/mt, down 0.35%, with trading volume at 19,400 lots and open interest at 276,000 lots, an increase of 42 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,190 yuan/mt, rose to 101,390 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward throughout the session to a low of 100,790 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed at 100,820 yuan/mt, down 0.43%, with trading volume at 37,700 lots and open interest at 195,000 lots, a decrease of 896 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase directly from smelters to ensure invoice issuance for the current month, diverting some demand from the spot trading market. Demand side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching, some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, but according to SMM, actual demand growth is limited. At current copper prices and premium levels, some downstream enterprises show low acceptance and are reluctant to chase higher prices. Supplier side, with month-end settlement approaching, some suppliers are less enthusiastic about shipments, and available low-priced cargo is limited, providing support for spot premiums. Overall, amid the interplay between tight invoices and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,316.5/mt, touching a high of $13,329/mt early in the session. Copper prices then saw their center gradually shift lower, dipping to $13,193/mt, before fluctuating upward to ultimately close at $13,226.5/mt, down 0.47%. Trading volume reached 15,500 lots, and open interest reached 278,700 lots, an increase of 1,326 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,540 yuan/mt, touching a high of 102,660 yuan/mt early in the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 102,050 yuan/mt, before experiencing wild swings to ultimately close at 102,280 yuan/mt, down 0.64%. Trading volume reached 35,000 lots, and open interest reached 208,000 lots, a decrease of 4,047 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] From the perspective of invoice structure, the current tight supply of cargoes with invoices dated this month in the Shanghai spot copper market showed no signs of easing. Suppliers generally raised their quotes for cargoes with invoices dated this month, and low-priced sources were hard to find. Some downstream enterprises, to ensure the issuance of invoices for the current month, preferred to purchase directly from smelters, diverting some spot demand away from the trading market. From the perspective of supplier behavior, with month-end settlement approaching, some suppliers showed low enthusiasm for shipments and held back from selling, further tightening available sources. Demand side, the Labour Day holiday falls next week, and downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs. Procurement may see some increase, with the preference for cargoes with invoices dated this month set to intensify the structural tightness in the spot market. Overall, under the combined effects of tight invoice-dated cargo supply, suppliers holding back from selling, and pre-holiday stockpiling, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow, continuing the overall firm trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,317/mt, moved sideways after the opening before dipping to a low of $13,168/mt, then the center rose to a high of $13,348/mt, and finally closed at $13,259/mt, down 0.68%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots, a decrease of 809 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 316,000 lots, a decrease of 4,795 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall movement mainly characterized by bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 102,670 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward after the opening to a low of 101,780 yuan/mt, then the center rose to a high of 102,880 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 102,550 yuan/mt, down 0.15%, with trading volume at 55,000 lots, a decrease of 51,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest stood at 186,000 lots, an increase of 1,437 lots from the previous trading day, with the overall movement mainly characterized by bears adding positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, from the perspective of invoice structure, the shortage of invoices dated this month at the domestic trade port intensified intraday, with suppliers generally raising their offer prices for cargoes with invoices dated this month, pushing SHFE copper spot premiums from discounts to premiums. Meanwhile, the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and cargoes with invoices dated next month widened further, reflecting the continued disruption of the periodic invoice shortage on spot pricing. Affected by this, some downstream enterprises preferred to purchase directly from smelters to secure the issuance of invoices dated this month. Demand side, copper prices remain at elevated levels, and downstream purchasing has generally become cautious, dominated by rigid demand with limited willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the Labour Day holiday falls next week, and some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, which may lead to a certain increase in purchasing, providing periodic support for spot premiums. Overall, under the combined effects of a tight invoice structure, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Demand side, SHFE copper prices rose during the night session yesterday, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current price levels declined notably. Intraday purchasing sentiment pulled back, reflecting the suppressive effect of high prices on demand. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened to 180-110 yuan/mt. Suppliers showed some sentiment to hold prices firm, with low willingness to sell, providing certain support for spot discounts. Regional supply side, consumption momentum weakened in north China regions such as Gansu, Shanxi, and Henan, with some smelters resuming shipments to the Shanghai area. Available spot cargo in the east China market may increase going forward, posing potential downward pressure on spot discounts. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area was recorded at 188,000 mt, down 2,800 mt WoW. The destocking pace slowed down significantly, indicating that current copper prices had weak appeal to downstream enterprises. Overall, amid the interplay between support from the price spread between futures contracts structure and expectations of cargo flowing back from the north, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, from the perspective of regional price spreads, the intraday Shanghai-Guangdong price spread widened further to around 250 yuan/mt, with the arbitrage window expanding further. The willingness to divert cargoes from east China to south China is expected to strengthen going forward, which is likely to redirect available cargoes from the Shanghai market and provide marginal support for local spot discounts. In addition, in the current Shanghai spot copper market, cargoes with invoices dated this month are relatively scarce on the trading side, with some suppliers opting to make shipments using cargoes with invoices dated next month. The price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and next month remained at 30-40 yuan/mt. Demand side, copper prices are currently moving sideways, and downstream enterprises' acceptance of current copper prices may improve somewhat, with ordering willingness rebounding slightly, though purchases still mainly center on just-in-time procurement. Overall, driven by the combined effects of mild demand improvement, cross-regional arbitrage, and divergence in invoice structures, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,286/mt, with the center fluctuating upward to a high of $13,330/mt in the early session before declining, touching a low of $13,139/mt near the end of the session, and finally closing at $13,154.5/mt, down 0.68%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 279,000 lots, down 1,632 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,300 yuan/mt, with the center rising to a high of 102,810 yuan/mt in the early session, before the center declined near the end of the session to a low of 102,060 yuan/mt, and finally closing at 102,100 yuan/mt, down 0.04%. Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 1,148 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.