May 6, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $5/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $69/mt (price range $62-76/mt); the average B/L price rose by $5/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $66/mt (price range $61-73/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $5/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $36/mt (price range $30-42/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in early to mid-May. The SHFE/LME price ratio remained open after the holiday. As a major industry conference was held in Hong Kong this week, spot trader activity in the market was limited. Most traders in the market chose to import on their own, with a small number of offers rising notably. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in early May was offered at $75/mt, QP May; EQ B/L arriving in early May was offered at $48/mt, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-May was offered at $50/mt, QP May-June. ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were offered at $80/mt, with no deals heard so far, QP June.

SMM May 6 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 270 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,550 yuan/mt, up 975 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,445 yuan/mt, up 970 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the holiday, Guangdong inventory continued to increase and had risen for 3 consecutive days, mainly due to weak downstream consumption. Hit by both rising inventory and higher copper prices, downstream restocking enthusiasm was lukewarm, and suppliers had to lower premiums to facilitate shipments. Standard-quality copper quotes continued to decline, with early-session quotes at 200 yuan/mt before being lowered to 160 yuan/mt. Guangdong copper cathode procurement sentiment today was 2.32, up 0.12 from the previous trading day, while shipments sentiment was 3.21, down 0.24 from the previous trading day (historical data available via the database). Overall, copper prices rose while suppliers lowered premiums to facilitate shipments, and trading activity was moderate.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, on the inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area registered 188,300 mt after the holiday, up 6,500 mt WoW, while inventory in the Jiangsu area was 41,700 mt, down 1,000 mt WoW. The destocking trend in social inventory saw its first inflection point, shifting to a slight inventory buildup during the holiday period, though the increase was not yet significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of subsequent inventory buildup. Supply side, although the import window remained profitable, logistics disruptions in Africa led to reduced import arrivals, limiting short-term incremental spot cargo circulation. Demand side, after the rise in copper prices, end-user purchase willingness weakened, compounded by suppliers holding back from selling, spot premiums rose, and market trading was thin on both sides. Overall, under the multiple factors of high prices suppressing demand, the initial emergence of an inventory inflection point, suppliers holding back from selling, and reduced import arrivals, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

[SMM North China Spot Copper Cathode Market] On the first day after the holiday, downstream restocking demand in North China was mediocre due to rising copper prices, and upstream inventory accumulation put spot premiums under pressure to some extent.

Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 200 yuan/mt to a discount of 100 yuan/mt, with the average discount of 150 yuan/mt unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 102,280 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,039/mt, dipped to $13,012/mt early in the session before the center shifted higher, touching a high of $13,161/mt and then moving sideways at elevated levels, ultimately closing at $13,100.5/mt, up 1.17%, with trading volume at 17,700 lots and open interest at 266,000 lots, an increase of 762 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bullish position building. The most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract was closed overnight due to the Labour Day holiday.

High copper prices, ample supply, weak demand, inventory buildup, weak structure ↓ Falling copper prices, still ample supply, good demand, destocking, slightly stronger structure ↓ Fluctuating copper prices, relatively tight supply, demand fluctuating with copper prices, high probability of destocking, high probability of strengthening structure Q1 2026 has ended, and April trading days are also about to end. The above two sentences summarize SHFE copper futures and spot market performance. Note that this refers only to copper cathode supply, as China saw significant production increases in 2025. Despite continued ore tightness, production in 2026 has also remained fluctuating at highs, keeping copper cathode supply persistently ample. Demand side, although annual demand showed growth, when broken down to monthly or even daily levels, demand was significantly influenced by copper prices. Amid copper price fluctuations, secondary copper was the "active player" — when copper prices were high, secondary copper shipments increased, benefiting both supply and demand sides; when copper prices fell, secondary copper shipments decreased, reducing some raw material supply for both supply and demand. So recently the spot market appeared to have tight supply. Smelters began shifting to "high prices with high volumes" in shipments. Against the backdrop of continued destocking and concentrated smelter maintenance, can premiums "heat up"? The chart above shows that from a macro perspective, copper prices and Shanghai spot copper premiums exhibited a clear inverse correlation in recent years. However, from a detailed perspective, Shanghai spot copper premiums have recently shown signs of "picking up" under high copper prices. 1. Although inventory continued destocking, the current warrant-to-inventory ratio remained elevated (this indicator is highly correlated with structure). The SHFE copper near-month structure has not shown a sustained backwardation structure to provide guidance for future premiums. 2. Although copper prices returned to highs, overall secondary copper shipment sentiment remained subdued, providing limited supplementation to copper cathode production and consumption. Previously, the price difference between primary metal and scrap was inverted, which favored copper cathode consumption. During this process, non-registered supply supplementation was limited, and the price spread between non-registered and SX-EW copper also narrowed. Imported copper supplementation within the year decreased YoY compared to previous years. Taking DRC as an example, non-registered supply was also diverted. Overall, substitutes for registered copper cathode decreased. 3. Copper cathode supply itself is about to decrease in the coming months, with concentrated maintenance currently underway in the market. Social inventory is expected to further decline. As inventory decreases and the warrant-to-inventory ratio declines, the far-month structure has already shifted to backwardation. China's spot premiums are also expected to pick up in the near term. It has been observed that Guangdong spot premiums have been consistently higher than other regions nationwide for several consecutive days. Downstream buyers in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Anhui have recently tended to purchase from direct producers and traders with inventory who can issue invoices for the current month. Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to see a small spike before the Labour Day holiday. After the holiday, as domestic supply decreases, premiums are expected to gradually firm up. However, the warrant-to-inventory ratio remains relatively high, and a sustained shift to backwardation in the structure still requires patience.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to the post-holiday period, demand side, enterprises are still primarily making just-in-time procurement, and demand is unlikely to see significant increases after the holiday. In addition, some downstream processing enterprises prefer to purchase directly from smelters to ensure bill compliance, diverting some spot demand from the trading market. Supply side, first, diesel shortages in Africa have hindered transportation and logistics, delaying the pace of imported cargo arrivals at ports, resulting in tight imported copper supply in the short term; second, according to SMM, five smelters in China are expected to enter maintenance in May, which will also reduce domestic spot copper circulation. Overall, against the backdrop of tightened spot circulation caused by hindered imports and domestic maintenance, suppliers have a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and Shanghai spot copper premiums are expected to hold up well after the holiday.

SMM April 30: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged; SX-EW copper at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up slightly by 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today, as end-users carried out final restocking ahead of the holiday. On the last day before the holiday, market trading was quiet, and spot quotes remained at the previous day's level. Particularly on the trading side, affected by invoice-related issues, most participants adopted a wait-and-see stance, planning to resume trading after the Labour Day holiday. Guangdong copper cathode procurement sentiment was 2.2, down 0.02 from the previous trading day, while shipments sentiment was 3.45, down 0.15 (historical data available via the SMM database). Overall, market trading was sluggish ahead of the holiday, but spot quotes remained firm. Attention should be paid to inventory buildup during the Labour Day holiday.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,073.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,098/mt in early trading, then the copper price center gradually declined to $12,967/mt, and finally closed at $12,989/mt, down 0.35%, with trading volume at 19,400 lots and open interest at 276,000 lots, an increase of 42 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 101,190 yuan/mt, rose to 101,390 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward throughout the session to a low of 100,790 yuan/mt near the close, and finally closed at 100,820 yuan/mt, down 0.43%, with trading volume at 37,700 lots and open interest at 195,000 lots, a decrease of 896 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions.