[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Alloy Prices Continued to Hover at Highs, While Market Demand Was Significantly Suppressed] This week, secondary aluminum alloy prices continued to rise, but the pace of demand follow-up was relatively slow. In the short term, raw material costs remained at high levels, providing strong support for ADC12 prices; however, if prices continue to rise, the suppressive effect of high prices on demand will become increasingly evident. Meanwhile, as operating rates gradually recover, there are also expectations of a mild increase on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on the pace of downstream order release, the pressure on the market from the supply recovery process, and the impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices.

In the spot market, this week (March 09, 2026-March 13, 2026), supply in the refined lead spot market gradually resumed, and imported lead ingots continued to enter the market, leaving ample spot cargo available in circulation. Downstream inventory was digested slowly, with only limited just-in-time procurement. This week, mainstream transaction prices for primary lead in Henan still traded at slight discounts to the SMM #1 lead average price. Although some traders held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, downstream buyers actively negotiated prices, making transactions at premiums relatively difficult. Supply in Hunan recovered slowly, but remained relatively tight, with smelters and suppliers quoting premiums of 0-25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and transactions were concluded mainly on rigid demand. This week, the overall fundamentals of the lead spot market remained weak, downstream consumption and stockpiling enthusiasm were poor, and overall spot order transactions were sluggish.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: The SHFE/LME Price Ratio Continued to Weaken, and Aluminum Prices Were Expected to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still had upward momentum, with strong support from overseas prices, and the backwardation structure was expected to persist in the short term. China was in a phase of high inventory + weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum was clearly weaker than that outside China. Amid diverging domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio was expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices were expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.

This week, Pr-Nd alloy prices generally fell first and then rose, and have now stabilized in the range of 980,000-1 million yuan/mt. This price fluctuation was mainly driven by the impact of news factors on market sentiment.

[Weak Spot Demand During the Week, Wider Spot Discounts]: This week, spot discounts in Ningbo widened, with the weekly average price down 20 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday this week, spot prices in Ningbo against the 2604 contract were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt and at a premium of 20 yuan/mt against Shanghai, with the premium against Shanghai fluctuating during the week..

Stainless steel spot prices were stable this week, but production costs rose somewhat, further squeezing stainless steel mills’ profit margins. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on raw material prices on the day, the full-cost profit margin was -1.27% this week; calculated based on raw material inventory costs, it reached 2.21%. Nickel raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices edged up further this week. Although a major stainless steel mill recently set relatively low procurement tender prices for high-grade NPI, strong nickel ore prices continued to provide solid cost support for NPI, traders showed strong willingness to hold prices firm, and the overall market remained bullish. Coupled with high stainless steel production schedules in March, downstream stainless steel mills maintained strong raw material demand, and the psychological price level also moved up gradually. In the short term, high-grade NPI prices were more likely to rise than fall. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% rose by 6.5 yuan per nickel unit to 1,094.5 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market side, stainless steel scrap prices strengthened this week, mainly due to the linkage with furnace charge, economic advantages, and demand support. Firm high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices boosted steel scrap prices higher. Stainless steel production schedules are expected to increase in March, boosting procurement demand. Stainless steel scrap still had an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, supporting bullish sentiment. However, downstream demand recovery remained limited, stainless steel social inventory stayed high, and finished product prices lacked momentum for further gains, constraining upside room for steel scrap prices. Overall, the market showed a pattern of “rising prices, raw material support, and demand under pressure,” and prices are expected to remain generally stable with slight rise going forward. As of this Friday, the price of 304 off-cuts in Shanghai rose by 600 yuan/mt to around 10,250 yuan/mt. Chrome raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome prices rose slightly this week. Overseas market chrome ore futures prices continued to climb, and China chrome ore spot quotations moved up in tandem. Ferrochrome smelting costs increased, ferrochrome producers’ profits narrowed significantly, and with retail spot supply of high-carbon ferrochrome remaining tight and stainless steel production schedules staying high in March, ferrochrome prices were supported to edge up further. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia rose 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW to 8,650 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

SMM News, March 6: This week, LME lead opened at $1,940/mt. Early in the session, affected by the rapid fading of geopolitical safe-haven sentiment and broad weakness across the nonferrous metals sector, lead prices fluctuated downward and once fell to $1,927.5/mt. Subsequently, market sentiment somewhat recovered, and lead prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,949/mt. As bullish momentum weakened, prices turned weaker again and finally closed at $1,933/mt, down $13/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 0.67%. This week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at around 16,780 yuan/mt, and early-session lead prices climbed to 16,815 yuan/mt. Subsequently, affected by both weak supply and weak demand in the spot market, prices fluctuated downward. During the session, lead prices rebounded slightly, but bearish strength remained strong, and the price center moved lower again. Near the close, after consolidating at lows, lead prices fell to 16,550 yuan/mt and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, down about 220 yuan/mt from the beginning of the week, a decline of about 1.31%. 》Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News, March 13: This week, mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory prices for secondary lead were at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price, with discounts of 50-100 yuan/mt in some areas; dragged down by scrap battery prices and weak downstream consumption, the industry remained loss-making, and most smelters held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. As of March 13, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit and loss for large-scale enterprises was -422 yuan/mt, and that for small and medium-sized enterprises was -633 yuan/mt (the model’s by-product revenue did not include tin or antimony). With delivery to be completed and rigid demand expected to recover next week, SMM expected discounts for secondary lead to narrow slightly. Overall, losses across China’s secondary lead industry remained unchanged and production resumptions were slow. Given the availability of primary lead and imported lead cargoes, premiums for spot orders of secondary refined lead were likely to maintain sideways movement, making substantial premiums difficult to emerge. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

[SMM Chromium Weekly Review: Costs and Demand Jointly Drove the Market, with Strongly Bullish Sentiment] March 13, 2026: Quotations remained unchanged for the time being, and the chromium market operated steadily...

At the start of this week, US nonfarm payrolls for February unexpectedly declined, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts rebounded somewhat, briefly boosting copper prices. Trump then signaled that tensions between the US and Iran might ease, sending oil prices lower and the US dollar weaker, which triggered a phased rebound in copper prices. However, after oil tankers in the Gulf region came under attack and Iran stated that it would continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, tensions in the Middle East escalated again. Rising crude oil prices lifted safe-haven sentiment, and the stronger US dollar index weighed on copper prices. At the same time, US February CPI came in line with expectations, and market bets on interest rate cuts within the year were scaled back markedly, weakening expectations for macro liquidity. In terms of positioning, bulls continued to reduce positions, and capital turned more cautious. Overall, macro uncertainty and repeated shifts in interest rate cut expectations remain intertwined, and copper prices are still likely to fluctuate rangebound in the short term. Fundamentals side, TC in the copper concentrates market was still falling. Recent mine tender prices pointed to a median of -$60/mt. For copper cathode, the inventory buildup showed a turning point, and the import window opened slightly. According to SMM, downstream operating activity was more active than expected, with active pricing below the copper price range of 100,000 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to remain unchanged, and geopolitical tensions are still expected to provide strong support to the US dollar, leaving significant short-term resistance for copper prices. However, fundamentals are supporting copper prices, which are expected to remain fluctuating near the range in the short term. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $12,800/mt and $13,200/mt, and SHFE copper between 99,000 yuan/mt and 101,000 yuan/mt. In the spot market, as delivery approaches, spot market trading logic will fluctuate with the price spread between futures contracts and funding costs, and is expected to gradually rise next week. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to range from a discount of 180 yuan/mt to a discount of 80 yuan/mt.